Total global GHG emission level (without LULUCF), taking into account implementation of the latest NDCs of all Parties to the Paris Agreement, is estimated to be around 54.7 (52.7–56.7) Gt CO₂ eq in 2025 and 54.9 (51.5–58.3) Gt CO2 eq in 2030, which are:

• In 2025, 58.1 per cent higher than in 1990 (34.6 Gt CO₂ eq), 15.5 per cent higher than in 2010 (47.4 Gt CO₂ eq) and 4.3 per cent higher than in 2019 (52.4 Gt CO₂ eq); 
• In 2030, 58.7 per cent higher than in 1990, 15.9 per cent higher than in 2010 and 4.7 per cent higher than 2019.

In comparison, the total GHG emissions of the Parties that communicated new or updated NDCs are estimated to be 26.3 Gt CO₂ eq in 2019, and total GHG emission levels resulting from implementation of their NDCs are estimated to be around 25.6 (24.7–26.4) Gt CO₂ eq in 2025 and 23.6 (22.2–25.0) Gt CO₂ eq in 2030, which is about 3.7 (3.3-4.1) per cent lower for 2025 and 11.0 (10.1–12.0) per cent lower for 2030 than the estimated total GHG emissions for these years according to their previous NDCs. In absolute terms, the projected emission levels for 2025 and 2030 for this group of Parties are now lower than according to their previous NDCs by 0.99 (0.91–1.06) Gt CO₂ eq and 2.92 (2.80–3.03) Gt CO₂ eq, respectively. Compared with the 2010 level, total GHG emissions of these Parties are now estimated to be 1.5 (+1.8 to -4.8) per cent lower by 2025 and 9.0 (3.6-14.5) per cent lower by 2030.

The total global GHG emission level, taking into account full implementation of all the latest NDCs (including their conditional elements), implies possibility of global emissions peaking before 2030, with the lower bound of the 2030 emission level (51.5 Gt CO₂ eq) estimated to be up to 1.8 per cent below the 2019 emission level (52.4 Gt CO₂ eq) and 2.2 per cent below the lower bound of the estimated 2025 emission level (52.7 Gt CO₂ eq). The implementation of most conditional elements depends on access to enhanced financial resources, technology transfer and technical cooperation, and capacity-building support; availability of market-based mechanisms; and absorptive capacity of forests, and other ecosystems.

The total global GHG emission level in 2030, taking into account implementation of all the latest NDCs, is expected to be 15.9 per cent above the 2010 level. According to the SR1.5, to be consistent with global emission pathways with no or limited overshoot of the 1.5 °C goal, global net anthropogenic CO₂ emissions need to decline by about 45 per cent from the 2010 level by 2030, reaching net zero around 2050. For limiting global warming to below 2 °C, CO₂ emissions need to decrease by about 25 per cent from the 2010 level by 2030 and reach net zero around 2070.

The total global GHG emission level in 2030, taking into account implementation of all the latest NDCs, is expected to be 16.3 per cent above the 2010 level. According to the SR1.5, to be consistent with global emission pathways with no or limited overshoot of the 1.5 °C goal, global net anthropogenic CO₂ emissions need to decline by about 45 per cent from the 2010 level by 2030, reaching net zero around 2050. For limiting global warming to below 2 °C, CO₂ emissions need to decrease by about 25 per cent from the 2010 level by 2030 and reach net zero around 2070.

In the context of the carbon budget consistent with 50 per cent likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5 °C, cumulative CO₂ emissions in 2020–2030 based on the latest NDCs would likely use up 89 per cent of the remaining carbon budget, leaving a post-2030 carbon budget of around 56 Gt CO₂, which is equivalent to the average annual CO₂ emissions in 2020–2030. Similarly, in the context of the carbon budget consistent with a likely chance of keeping warming below 2 °C, cumulative CO₂ emissions in 2020–2030 based on the latest NDCs would likely use up around 39 per cent of the remaining carbon budget.

The information above implies an urgent need for either a significant increase in the level of ambition of NDCs between now and 2030 or a significant overachievement of the latest NDCs, or a combination of both, in order to attain cost-optimal emission levels suggested in many of the scenarios considered by the IPCC for keeping warming well below 2 °C or limiting it to 1.5 °C. If emissions are not reduced by 2030, they will need to be substantially reduced thereafter to compensate for the slow start on the path to net zero emissions. The SR1.5 identifies net zero CO₂ emissions as a prerequisite for halting warming at any level.

Some Parties provided information on long-term mitigation visions, strategies and targets for up to and beyond 2050, referring to climate neutrality, carbon neutrality, GHG neutrality or net zero emissions. These Parties’ total GHG emission level is estimated to be 14.3 (13.6 to 14.9) Gt CO₂ eq in 2030, which is a reduction of 26 (22–29) per cent compared with the 2010 level.

Mindful of the inherent uncertainty of such long-term estimates, the information indicates that these Parties’ total GHG emission level could be 83–88 per cent lower in 2050 than in 2019, with annual per capita emissions estimated at 1.0–1.4 t CO₂ eq. Global per capita emission levels by 2050 under the well-below 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios are very similar, at 1.6–2.4 t CO₂ eq and 0.6–1.2 t CO₂ eq, respectively.

Almost all Parties explained their approach to NDC preparation and implementation. Many linked their NDCs to their commitment to transitioning to a sustainable and/or lowcarbon and resilient economy, taking into account social, environmental and economic factors as well as the SDGs. In addition, many Parties indicated that they have integrated their NDC targets, goals and policies into national legislative, regulatory and planning processes as a means of ensuring implementation

Many Parties highlighted policy coherence and synergies between their domestic mitigation measures8 and development priorities, which include the SDGs, and for some that communicated new or updated NDCs, LT-LEDS and green recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Many Parties referred to formal arrangements in place for domestic stakeholder consultation. Most of them indicated that they conducted consultations and engagement in an inclusive and participatory manner, with some Parties specifically referencing gendersensitive consultations

Parties are increasingly recognizing gender integration as a means to enhance the ambition and effectiveness of their climate action. Most Parties provided information related to gender in their NDCs and many affirmed that they will take gender into account in implementing them. Of the Parties that referenced gender in their previous NDCs, most elaborated more on the topic in their new or updated NDCs. Some included information on how gender had been or was planned to be mainstreamed in NDC implementation.

Some Parties described the role of local communities and the role, situation and rights of indigenous peoples in the context of their NDCs, describing the specific vulnerabilities of indigenous peoples that are particular to their circumstances, the importance of drawing on indigenous and local knowledge to strengthen climate efforts, and arrangements to enable greater participation in and contributions to climate action by indigenous peoples..

Almost all Parties provided information on using one or more ACE elements to promote implementation of mitigation and adaptation activities, and in their new or updated NDCs Parties generally communicated more clearly and in more detail on general principles, past achievements, future commitments, and needs and gaps in relation to ACE.

Most Parties included adaptation-related information in their NDCs. Some of the adaptation components were designated as adaptation communications. Parties provided information in particular on adaptation-related research; vulnerabilities; adaptation measures, in particular NAPs and sectoral actions; contingency measures; synergies with mitigation and other global frameworks; and monitoring and evaluation of adaptation.

In comparison with the INDCs, more of the NDCs contain adaptation information. The adaptation components of the NDCs, where included, indicate increased focus on national adaptation planning, in particular on the process to formulate and implement NAPs. The new or updated NDCs include, in comparison with the same Parties’ previous NDCs, more information on time-bound quantitative adaptation targets and the associated indicator frameworks, more specific links between adaptation efforts and efforts towards the SDGs, and more specific information on synergies and co-benefits between adaptation and mitigation.

In terms of adaptation priorities, the NDCs illustrate that Parties continue to focus on food production and nutrition security; freshwater resources; terrestrial and wetland ecosystems; human health; key economic sectors and services; disaster risk management and early warning; human habitats and urban areas; coastal areas and sea level rise; ocean ecosystems; and livelihoods and poverty

Almost all Parties outlined domestic mitigation measures as key instruments for achieving mitigation targets of their NDCs and/or targets for sectors or areas, such as energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, LULUCF and waste.

Domestic mitigation measures for renewable energy generation were most frequently mentioned by Parties, followed by measures for improvement in the energy efficiency of buildings. Some Parties communicated quantitative targets for the share (ranging from 15 to 100 per cent) of renewable energy in electricity generation by 2030; and many of those target shares fall within or above the IPCC range of 47–65 per cent consistent with 1.5 ºC pathways.For the Parties that communicated new or updated NDCs, renewable energy generation continued, as in their previous NDCs, to be the most frequently indicated mitigation option, with the share of Parties indicating this option sharply increasing since their previous NDCs (from 55 to 87 per cent).

Renewable energy generation and shifting to low- or zero-carbon fuels were frequently indicated as being relevant to reducing the carbon intensity of electricity and other fuels, including by increasing the electrification rate of the supply and electrifying end-use of energy. Improving energy efficiency and shifting to more efficient modes of transport were often referenced in relation to reducing energy demand. Across all priority mitigation areas, Parties frequently indicated waste-to-energy, improved management of manure and herds, and fluorinated gas substitution as key mitigation options relevant to reducing non-CO2 emissions. Parties often linked measures to the concept of circular economy, including reducing and recycling waste. Carbon pricing was frequently identified as efficiently incentivizing low-carbon behaviours and technologies by putting a price on GHG emissions

In terms of measures for enhancing carbon sequestration in soil or vegetation, afforestation, reforestation and revegetation, sustainable forest management, and reduced deforestation and forest degradation were most frequently indicated. Many developing country Parties referred to reducing deforestation as a priority with high mitigation potential, including by implementing REDD+ activities.

The SR1.5 identifies mitigation options considered relevant to aligning with 1.5 °C pathways, including:

• Halting investment in unabated coal by 2030. A few Parties communicated corresponding measures, such as phasing out use of unabated coal to produce electricity by 2025;

• Phasing out of sales of fossil-fuel passenger vehicles by 2035–2050. A few Parties communicated corresponding measures, including banning new registration of diesel and gasoline vehicles after 2030;

• Requiring newly constructed buildings to be near zero energy by 2020. Some Parties communicated corresponding measures, such as requiring new buildings constructed after 1 January 2020 to consume almost zero energy;

• Expanding forest cover by 2030. Some Parties communicated quantitative targets for increasing national forest cover, such as increasing forest cover to 60 per cent of the national territory without competing for land with the agriculture sector.

Some Parties considered mitigation co-benefits resulting from their adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans. In their new or updated NDCs more Parties reported on mitigation co-benefits of adaptation action and economic diversification plans, including information on specific projects, measures and activities with the resulting co-benefits, compared with the information in their previous NDCs. Similarly, more Parties provided information on their consideration of social and economic consequences of response measures, and of just transition and/or economic diversification.

Adaptation actions and economic diversification plans with mitigation co-benefits include afforestation and reforestation activities, climate-smart agriculture, reducing food waste, vertical farming, adapting coastal ecosystems, conservation plans for protected areas, nature-based solutions, increasing the share of renewable sources in energy generation, improving energy efficiency, carbon dioxide capture and storage, fuel switch and fuel price reforms in the transport sector, and moving to circular economy for better waste management.