Expectations for the Bali Climate Change Conference
At a pre-conference press briefing held in Bali this afternoon, UNFCCC Executive Secretary, Yvo de Boer, said that this thirteenth Conference on Climate Change brings to an end an incredible year in climate change science and politics. He referred to the recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which laid to rest any doubt that climate change is happening and that it is caused by rising greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activity.
Despite the catastrophic projections if climate change is allowed to continue unchecked, ”a large part of the solution is available to us today, what we need is political will,” said Mr. de Boer, adding ”the big question for me is: Ministers, what is your political answer to what the scientific community is telling you so very clearly?”
On the political front, Mr. De Boer spoke of the emerging momentum which began early in the year with President Bush’s State of the Union address in which he indicated that climate change is a global issue requiring a global response. This was followed by the European Union’s courageous commitment to reduce emissions by 20% by 2020; exactly the signal developing countries were seeking from the north. The G8 then called for negotiations on a future climate deal to be concluded by 2009, and at an unprecedented High-Level Event at United Nations Headquarters in New York in September, many world leaders called for a breakthrough in Bali on a long-term climate change regime. Mr. De Boer pointed out that Ministers attending the Bali Conference will therefore have to respond not only to the scientific community, but also to the call made in New York by their political leaders.
The issue is being made all the more urgent by the already visible evidence of climate change, particularly in developing countries. Impacts such as intensified drought and rainfall, melting glaciers and rising sea levels, however, are helping raise public awareness of climate change and therefore support for politicians to take action, said Mr. de Boer. He also pointed out that Asia will be among the worst affected regions. Projected impacts include an increase of 10 to 20% in tropical cyclone intensity and more frequent heatwaves like the one in India in 2002 which killed over 1000 people. Rising sea levels will also threaten millions of Asians, with over half of the population in 21 Asian countries living in high-risk areas.
”An important focus of the Bali conference will be how to take a long-term climate change regime forward,” Mr. de Boer said. He explained that the aim is threefold: to agree to formally launch negotiations on a long-term climate regime, to set an agenda for the negotiations and to agree on an end date for negotiations in order to avoid a gap between the Kyoto Protocol and whatever follows. Reversing Neil Armstrong's words when he landed on the moon, Mr. de Boer described the Protocol as ”a giant leap for man and a small step for mankind” and said that its achievement has been to provide an important architecture for whatever follows.
The agenda, meanwhile, is expected to constitute four main building blocks: mitigation - action to limit or reduce emissions; adaptation - putting in place a strategy to help developing countries adapt to the impacts of climate change; technology – helping countries limit or reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change through the supply of techology; and finance - generating investment and financial flows which will allow developing countries to act on mitigation and adaptation without harming their primary goals of economic growth and poverty eradication.
Other important agenda items will include deforestation, which is recognized as a key driver of climate change, accounting for up to 20% of global CO2 emissions. The aim will be to launch pilot projects in developing countries that will enhance their capacity to reduce emissions from deforestation. A further important topic will be the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), one of the three innovative mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol which offers rich countries the choice of reducing emissions at home or in developing countries, with benefits to both parties.
“I sense an incredible growing international awareness of the importance of climate change and recognition among the general public that politicans need to come to grips with this issue, “ Mr. de Boer said. “Millions of people around the world will be focusing their attention on what will be the response of the politicians to that very clear message given to them by the scientific community.“