Technology can sometimes seem overwhelming, not least when it comes to the new generation of “frontier technology,” which can be defined as technology that will “reshape industry and communications and provide urgently needed solutions to global challenges like climate change and have the potential to displace existing processes,” according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This type of technology includes everything from blockchain and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to the Internet of Things (IoT) and Virtual Reality (VR). Although the pace of technological changes can often be bewildering, as consumers we experience this type of technology more and more frequently, from smart fridges and speakers (IoT) to chatbots (AI) to cryptocurrency (blockchain).
So, can this new technology make a difference in the climate crisis, or are we in danger of believing we can innovate our way out of a crisis that needs systemic change?
Ben Ramalingam is a British researcher, strategist, innovator and author who was the lead author and research lead on the UK government’s 2016 report on Frontier Technologies for International Development. “I think it is very important that we don’t fall into a technological utopianism when it comes to climate change, nor that we are pessimistic, but instead that we are techno-realists,” he says. “For me, this means having a clear-eyed view on the contribution of different technologies – whether it is floating wind power, new solar techniques, batteries, clean hydrogen or whatever – but also that we understand that it is changes in the policy and legal frameworks that will ultimately determine the impact of any of these technologies. So better to think about the ‘greatest potential contribution’ of different technologies, and use evidence from rigorous technological assessments as a way of advocating for new policies and approaches.”
For Ramona O’Dwyer-Stock, who is Studying an MSc in Climate Change and Development at SOAS University of London, and has just completed an internship at UNFCCC, where she researched frontier technologies and how they are being rolled out in the fight against climate change, frontier technology has a role to play: “I think the technologies that can have the most impact will be the ones that may be able to support behavioural or structural change,” she says.
“More granular data or more precise predictions are obviously very useful, but they’re not telling us anything particularly new – we know enough already to be taking action, and that’s what’s currently missing. For example, machine learning has been applied to identifying psychological barriers of behavioural change, and blockchain offers the possibility of increasing community self-reliance without the need for centralised entities. If these could be used to effect social change on a large enough scale, that would be a huge impact.”
One issue around frontier technology is whether it can be applied in the developing world as much as in the developed world. As O’Dwyer-Stock points out in her research, “frontier technologies and their enablers are [currently] unevenly distributed North/South and between economic groups.”
“I don’t think we can over-generalise here,” Ramalingam says. “We have to look at each technology on its own terms, in each context, based on the constellation of actors spanning private enterprise, public bodies, not-for-profits and citizens. But we cannot afford to let governments and society de-risk climate innovations, and allow the private sector to reap the rewards. Our current system defaults to public risk, private gain, time and again – just look at the investment in COVID-19 vaccines which have largely been made by public bodies, with large businesses making bumper profits. We have to take a much firmer line on the question of who wins, who loses, and how we need to adapt the playing field to ensure the outcomes are win-win-win-win for all actors, as far as possible.”
Yet, there has been much progress in recent years, with many developing countries embracing the world of frontier technologies. “Brazil, for example, does a lot in the AI space,” O’Dwyer-Stock says. “Many of these technologies also use open-source tools or datasets and while existing datasets might be biased towards developed counties, technology can also help fill some of those blind spots. This of course leaves us with the challenges of the digital divide and the need for support for developing countries to build technical capacity needs which big tech’s resources will happily fill in exchange for market share and data ownership.”
“Technology offers the promise of solving the climate emergency without any real change to how we live our lives or how our societies are organised, which is obviously appealing. And I think this narrative is also pushed in popular climate discourse by people with a vested interest in technology and in avoiding systemic reform,” O’Dwyer-Stock says.
This echoed by Ramalingam: “One of the challenges is that politically it is much easier to point to shiny gadgets and exciting moonshots than it is to say this is going to involve challenging, long-term, and often painful processes of social, economic and cultural change.”
And there are myriad other issues around data capture; i.e. what happens to the data when it is captured and stored and where does it end up? This speaks to bigger issues around privacy and the power of Big Tech companies, yet despite the caveats, there has been much progress made, in this space, and hopefully much more to come.
A brief guide to frontier technology
AI
AI (artificial intelligence) has huge potential when it comes to tackling climate change, although it also – given its carbon footprint – has an associated cost too. AI is the ability of a computer to carry out tasks usually done by a human, as they require human intelligence. AI can be used to strengthen climate change predictions, help reduce emissions through, for example, smarter route optimization for delivery drivers and analyze climate data more accurately.
Big Data
Big data refers to data sets that are far bigger and more complex than traditional data, so much so that traditional data processing software can't manage them. Big Data is increasingly being used in the fight against climate change, particularly when it comes to monitoring and measuring environmental changes. O'Dwyer-Stock highlights eBird, an app that allows users to add bird sightings to an open-source global database. In 2021, more than one billion sightings had been added from more than 700,000 contributors.
Blockchain
The blockchain is essentially a digital ledger of transactions that is distributed across the entire network of computer systems that make up that blockchain. The ‘block’ refers to the individual record of each transaction, while the ‘chain’ refers to the fact that those records are linked in one chain. Each time a transaction occurs, a record of that transaction is added to every participants’ ledger. This allows for transparency, efficiency and security. When it comes to climate change, the blockchain can ensure increased transparency, particularly around smart contracts, which enable the design of globally accessible and fully automated incentive systems that can directly reward individuals, companies and governments for taking part in sustainable practices such as carbon offsetting and regenerative agriculture.
The Internet of Things
The internet of things (IoT) refers to the internet of computing devices embedded in everyday objects (from fridges to cars) enabling them to send and receive data. Unsurprisingly, IoT has lots of climate-related potential. O’Dwyer-Stock highlights SweetSense, a company that manages water and energy services in remote, off-grid environments using IoT sensors with satellite connectivity – they monitor water use, air quality, agricultural productivity and electricity consumption.
Extended Reality
Extended Reality (XR) is a catch-all term for Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality. Augmented Reality (AR) is an immersive technology that features virtual objects overlaid on the real world, while Virtual Reality (VR) is full immersion in a virtual environment. Research has shown that VR can be used to engender a pro-environmental stance. Findings from Stanford University researchers show that people who were immersed in a three-dimensional virtual forest and told to saw through a towering sequoia until it crashed in front of them later used less paper in the real world than people who only imagined what it's like to cut down a tree.