One of the most visceral images of the environmental cost of conflict was during the first Gulf War, when 700 of Kuwait’s oil fields were set ablaze. The smoke plume above them initially stretched for 800 miles. A staggering 11 million barrels of crude oil poured into the Persian Gulf, creating a slick nine miles long. Inland, nearly 300 oil lakes formed on the surface of the desert, polluting the soils for decades.

An international coalition of firefighters battled the fires for months until the last well was finally capped in November 1991. Even now, more than 30 years later, the effects of those fires are still felt, with more than 90 per cent of the contaminated soil still exposed.

Yet the effect of conflict on the climate is more far reaching than burning oil fields: the mass movement of refugees has huge effects on the environment, while land destroyed by shelling or uninhabitable due to landmines, puts pressure on scarce land resources.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), a UN agency mandated to aid and protect refugees, forcibly displaced communities, and stateless peoples, in the past 10 years, the number of people forcibly displaced has doubled to almost 80 million people at the end of 2019, with fewer and fewer of those who flee being able to return home. Among them, almost 35 million are refugees, asylum seekers and others displaced outside their country, while the remaining 45 million are internally displaced.

And while conflict exacerbates the effects of climate change, climate change, at least indirectly, drives conflict. And, as the climate crisis intensifies in the coming years and decades, more and more people will be forced to leave their homes, as a result of everything from desertification to rising sea levels. How will countries cope with this influx of refugees, from for example, Pacific islands which are submerged, and will the sharing of already scarce resources lead to conflict?

Andrew Harper, was appointed the UNHCR’s Special Advisor on Climate Action in 2019, to help UNHCR address the climate emergency, and better protect and assist people forcibly displaced by the effects of climate change and disasters. We spoke to him about the links between conflict and climate change.

How does climate change create conflict?

Climate change does contribute to increased conflict, but this often happens along indirect pathways. It makes the most vulnerable even more vulnerable. In terms of where UNHCR is engaged, we see that there is no group more vulnerable than those who have had to flee their country due to conflict and are now feeling the effects of a hostile climate. We are also seeing that people who have been displaced by a combination of both conflict and the consequences of climate change and environmental degradation are extremely unlikely to be able to return home.

How does climate change affect more vulnerable regions?

We are seeing across fragile regions increased food insecurity, urbanization (as small farm holdings no-longer remain viable following a sequence of droughts or disasters) and competition over resources – particularly water. When combined with other planetary crises such as land degradation and over exploitation of the environment, climate change can make an already fraught situation untenable. 90 per cent of the world’s refugees originate from countries that are already impacted by the climate emergency and/or have the least capacity to adapt to an increasingly hostile environment. The latter is particularly important; while climate change impacts every single square meter of this earth, it does not impact everyone equally. And unfortunately, it is those states who have often contributed the least to global emissions, who are very much at the forefront of feeling the impacts of the emergency.

Why is that the case?

They don’t have the means to adapt and prepare. States who are plagued by poor governance, lethargic development, and a lack of social investment in key elements such as education, health and the rule of law, are also unlikely to be able to put in the necessary investment to protect the environment. [They are also unlikely to be able to] support preparedness and adaptation programmes, particularly for those on the margins of society. Adapting to, and mitigating, climate change can also play an important role in addressing many drivers of conflict and building peace.

As we see resources such as water dwindle, and severe weather-related events become more common, is a rise in the number of climate-change related conflicts inevitable?

The relationship between climate change, conflict and displacement is complex and context specific – over-simplification may lead to inappropriate or ineffective action. That being said, unless we invest more in supporting those communities that are on the front lines of the climate emergency, to better adapt and prepare for the unavoidable surge in extreme weather events, then there is likely to be an increase in the pre-conditions for conflict and violence to take place. In this regard I am talking about the ongoing droughts in many parts of the world, unpredictable rainfall patterns (where there is either not enough or too much rain), the consequent threat to food security, exacerbated by the current conflict in Ukraine [Ukraine and Russia are two of the biggest exporters of agricultural commodities, such as wheat, in the world], and the pressure on climate sensitive livelihoods, such as pastoralists or small farm holdings. The inability of governments to meet their social contracts/obligations, to provide the most essential services could, and is in a number of locations, leading to the emergence of non-state actors [such as militant groups]. However, the lack of human security and wellbeing of those most impacted by climate change is already wreaking havoc for communities all over the world.

Is there hope to change this narrative?

Very little is inevitable. If we can anticipate future risks, and given sufficient political will, we can mitigate some of the foreseen consequences. However, we are not working fast enough. There are 3.3-3.6 billion people living in hotspots of high vulnerability to climate change ­mainly in Africa, South Asia, South/Central America and Small Island Developing States. There are increasing gaps between adaptation action taken and what’s needed, with the largest gaps among lower income populations. Without urgent, at scale responses that reduce vulnerability in communities and countries facing the worst impacts, we will see more conflict, more displacement and more suffering.

Is drought – and the subsequent scarcity of water resources - the biggest climate-related cause of conflict and migration?

Compounded droughts, flooding, locust plagues, environmental degradation, poor governance are all leading to an increasingly precarious and complicated situation for tens of millions of people. We do not know enough about the specific triggers for why individuals or communities migrate, but we can say that the cascading series of disasters in many parts of the world, including throughout Africa, and the Arid Corridor in the Americas, is exacerbating other trends such as urbanisation and the abandonment of small farm holdings.

Are we likely to see the numbers displaced increase?

According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, one displacement per second took place due to extreme weather events last year. What is particularly concerning is that - given what the science is telling us, and what we are seeing in terms of a lack of engagement in preparedness and adaptation, and populations are moving towards more precarious locations – this figure can only increase. The latest IPCC report affirms the strength of the evidence that climate and weather extremes are increasingly driving displacement across all regions.

How is the conflict in Ukraine exacerbating the food crisis?

Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s most important suppliers of key staples and fertilizers. By causing disruptions in the supply of these commodities, the war is driving up food and fertilizer prices. Nearly 50 countries depend on Russia and Ukraine for at least 30 per cent of their wheat import and, of these, 36 countries source over 50 per cent of their wheat from the two countries.  Due to (anticipated) shortages in supply following Russia’s invasion, global wheat and maize prices skyrocketed.

Which regions will be affected the most?

The Sahel will be particularly affected due to the region’s high dependency on food imports, the looming global food crisis will hit the region hard and will further deteriorate food security, especially for the poor. Local prices for rice, wheat, oil, sugar, and other processed imports have already risen between 20 to 50 per cent in different countries in that region. The World Food Programme predicts that in West Africa seven to 10 million additional people could [suffer from food insecurity]due to the war’s implications. 

Sudan’s civil war is often described as the first modern climate change-induced conflict – what other conflicts have been caused (indirectly) by climate change?

The evidence is clear that climate change does contribute to increased conflict, but along indirect pathways. There are a variety of context factors — in particular, socioeconomic conditions, governance, and political factors — that interact and play a key role in translating climate change into conflict risks.

Evidence suggests that changes in rainfall patterns amplify existing tensions (IPCC), a prime example being Syria and the role a drier climate played in the country’s civil war. However, it would be incorrect to suggest the Syrian conflict was caused by climate change alone. It was but one influencing factor. In water-stressed areas with existing tensions between groups or states over a water source, the impact of climate change on water resources might increase tensions, particularly in the absence of strong institutional capacity.

Is there any room for optimism here – how do you keep a mindset that progress is possible?

We have no choice but to protect the most vulnerable and future generations, defeatism is not an option. But we also have to be realistic. During our lifetimes the temperature of the world will only increase, with the consequence that climatic and weather conditions will become more extreme, and their impacts more unpredictable.

We have more data and science than ever before, and if used wisely we can anticipate and prepare for what is to come. However, we must also appreciate that the world’s climate may never be as forgiving as it is now. The sooner that we recognize that we are guardians of our childrens’ future, and not just live to maximise our own well-being and material gains, the sooner we may be able to invest in a truly sustainable and peaceful future.