Progress in the implementation of Articles 4.8 and 4.9 of the Convention - Modelling tools to assess the impact of the implementation of response measures

The following database contains modelling tools that have been, or could be,useful in assessing the impact of the implementation of response measures.



Name of the Model

Name of the Organization

Description of the Model

Particular Relevance




Energy Research Institute, China

IPAC is an energy modelling system comprised of:

  1. general energy supply and demand models;

  2. an emissions model;

  3. a disaggregated set of energy supply models that focus on technologies and regions of China (in particular Beijing);

  4. air and health impact models.

The model's main relevance to the suggested response measures is its detailed treatment of energy technologies. The model is mainly used for:

  1. forecasting GHGs emissions;

  2. assessing the impact of new technologies;

  3. analysing the impact of different energy and environmental policies;

  4. forecasting energy demand.

The IPAC model is relevant in analysing the adoption of cleaner and more efficient uses of energy in China. The model has a particular focus on available technologies and how their use can be encouraged.





The MARKAL family of energy models is a set of generic models whose scope depend on the data used (can be regional, national or international over a period of 40 to 50 years). The models include detailed cost and technology information making them suitable for analysis of different policy and technological options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The models are mainly used for:

  1. identifying least-cost energy systems;

  2. exploring cost-effective responses to emission control policies;

  3. evaluating new technologies for R&D purposes;

  4. forecasting inventories of greenhouse gas emissions;

  5. estimating the value of regional cooperation in energy policy.

MARKAL is highly relevant to investigating the development of new environmentally-friendly technologies in a given region and looking at the conditions for the adoption of these technologies. The model can also be used to analyse energy-efficiency issues

38 countries and regions, including the EU27, USA, China and Japan



International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

MESSAGE is an optimization model used for medium- to long-term energy system planning, energy policy analysis, and scenario development.

The model provides a framework for representing an energy system with all its interdependencies from resource extraction, imports and exports, conversion, transport and distribution, to the provision of energy end-use services such as light, space conditioning, industrial production processes, and transportation. The model also covers all six Kyoto GHGs, their drivers and mitigation technologies.

MESSAGE is relevant in analysing the development of 'greener' technologies, as well as looking at the diffusion of technology across countries. The model can also be used to analyse the trade flows of different energy products

World, split in 11 regions



Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy

The National Energy Modelling System (NEMS) is a computer-based, energy-economy modelling system of U.S. energy markets. NEMS forecasts the production, imports, conversion, consumption, and prices of energy.

The inputs to the model include assumptions on macroeconomic and financial factors, world energy markets, resource availability and costs, behavioural and technological choice criteria, cost and performance characteristics of energy technologies, and demographics. The model can then be used to look at a range of response measures but is particularly well-suited to assessing technological solutions.

NEMS is relevant to assessment of the response measures through its treatment of the adoption of new energy technologies.


NIEIR Multi-purpose model


National Institute of Economics and Industry Research

NIEIR Multipurpose model is an energy modelling system comprised of:

  1. macroeconomic and industry activity models for the whole country and Australia's states;

  2. an energy forecasting model (EFM);

  3. an energy technology model (ETM);

  4. an energy environmental impact model (ENVI);

  5. an energy production and pricing model.

The model is mainly used for:

  1. analysing impact of removal of cross-subsidies in electricity prices;

  2. forecasting of electricity demand and load growth;

  3. projecting of greenhouse gas emissions;

  4. evaluating alternative power station options;

  5. assessing the impact of increased penetration of energy-efficient technologies and renewable energies on energy demand and supply and greenhouse gas emissions.

The NIEIR model is relevant in analysing the development and diffusion of carbon-neutral technologies in Australian electricity generation. The model can also be used in assessing the impacts of changes in subsidies and energy-efficiency rates.





The POLES model is a partial equilibrium model for the world energy system up to 2030. Market equilibrium is simulated by matching energy supply and demand which reply to changes in the international prices with a certain time lag.

It is therefore ideally suited to assessing the impacts of different pricing regimes, for example through taxation, but also of the development and diffusion of technology. The model is designed by connecting international, regional and national submodels.

The model is mainly used for:

  1. running world energy scenarios (energy demand, supply, trade, prices) by world region;

  2. inter-technology substitution over time;

  3. simulation of CO2 emission constraints and emissions trading;

  4. analysing the impact of technological change on emissions.

The POLES model is useful for analysing the adoption and diffusion of new technologies, including low-carbon options, as well as looking at inter-technology substitution across time.




ICCS, National Technical University of Athens

PRIMES is a simulation model of the energy markets in the European Union. It simulates market equilibrium for energy supply and demand in the Member States by finding the equilibrium prices for each energy source. The model has been used for analysis of taxation policy and emissions trading, and also includes a detailed representation of energy technologies.

The model is mainly used for:

  1. analysis of standard energy policy issues: security of supply, strategy, costs etc;

  2. analysis of environmental issues;

  3. looking at the impact of technology standards, new technologies and renewable resources;

  4. loking at energy efficiency, alternative fuels, trade and EU energy provision;

  5. analysis of policy issues regarding electricity generation, gas distribution and refineries.

PRIMES is relevant in analysing the impacts of climate change mitigation policies including taxation and emission trading. The detailed structure of the model also makes it suitable for assessing methods of technology development and diffusion.





SAFIRE (Strategic Assessment Framework for the Implementation of Rational Energy) is an engineering-economic bottom-up supply and demand model for the assessment of the main impacts of (renewable and new non-renewable) energy technologies on a national, regional or local level.

SAFIRE can be applied to assess the impact of energy technology and associated policies on a number of economic indicators, such as market penetration, pollutant emissions, capital expenditure, external costs, net employment creation.

The SAFIRE model cab used for assessing means of increasing the uptake of 'greener' technologies, as well as some of the economic impacts of their use.

34 European countries, 8 other countries worldwide, municipalities and counties in 12 European countries




VLEEM has been designed under a EU research project to support R&D policydecisions in the field of energy, in relation with sustainability objectivesin the very long term, making it a suitable tool for analysis of the responsemeasures.

VLEEM can be used for very-long-term analysis of possible technological solutionsto climate change, with the main policy inputs being changes to energy-focusedR&D.

World, split into ten regions

World Energy Model (WEM)


International Energy Agency

WEM is a large-scale mathematical model designed to replicate how energy markets function. The model is made up of six main modules: final energy demand; power generation; refinery and other transformation; fossil-fuel supply; CO2 emissions and investment. Its main relevance to the response measures is its use for assessing policy changes and, in particular, changes in technology patterns.

The model is mainly used for:

  1. analysing global energy prospects;

  2. estimating the environmental impact of energy use;

  3. analysing the effects of policy actions and technological changes;

  4. estimating investment in the energy sector.

The WEM is relevant in analysing the development and diffusion of less carbon-intensive technologies, given activities in energy markets.


World, split in 21 regions