The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s most recent report, AR6 Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, was released this week, focusing on the ways we can mitigate against the worst effects of climate change. It is the third in a series of three reports the IPCC has published in the past eight months. The first report, The Physical Science Basis published in August 2021, focused on the causes of climate change; the second report, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, published in February 2022, focused on the impacts of climate change.
What is the IPCC?
The IPCC is an organization of scientists from 196 countries which assesses the science related to climate change. The IPCC was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to provide policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts, future risks and adaptation and mitigation options.
Why is the IPCC’s work essential to climate action?
The IPCC reports are the culmination of work by thousands of scientists from around the world. It bases its reports on published and peer reviewed scientific technical literature, and provides opportunities for accredited NGOs and experts from all areas of the climate sphere – including from the energy sector – to debate the current science. The goal of these assessments is to inform international policy and negotiations on climate-related issues. Key to the IPCC’s credibility is the fact that this is a science-driven process and the rigorous peer-review process ensures its reports cannot be politically motivated. Essentially the IPCC’s reports provide the science that governments can use to guide and justify their own climate action.
What happened this week?
The IPCC released its most recent report focused on mitigation, or what can be done to prevent the worst effects of climate change. It was a mammoth undertaking with 278 authors from 16 countries reviewing more than 18,000 scientific papers and considered almost 60,000 comments from experts and governments as part of the drafting process.
What did the report say?
The report makes for stark reading. Essentially – as much media coverage has highlighted – the report is a “final warning for humanity” – unless we cut emissions quickly and meaningfully, we will bring about a climate catastrophe. The bad news is that emissions are at their highest level in human history. In 2019, emissions were about 12 per cent higher than they were in 2010 and 54 per cent higher than in 1990. What this means is that unless there is immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, limiting warming to 1.5C is “beyond reach.” Jim Skea, co-chair of the IPCC’s working group behind the report said: “It’s now or never if we want to limit global warming to 1.5C. Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.”
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, was scathing in his reaction to the report, describing it as a “litany of broken climate promises.” He added: “So far, high-emitting governments and corporations are not just turning a blind eye; they are adding fuel to the flames by continuing to invest in climate-choking industries. Scientists warn that we are already perilously close to tipping points that could lead to cascading and irreversible climate effects.”
The report focuses on a number of areas, including:
Fossil Fuels
The report makes it clear that the only realistic way to keep within 1.5C is to phase out coal use fully and reduce the amount of fossil fuels we burn. Every other measure from planting trees to carbon capture technology is secondary to reducing our dependence on fossil fuels.
Carbon Capture
The report highlights the fact that technology such as carbon capture and storage (liquifying the carbon from power plants and storing it underground) and direct air capture (removing carbon from the atmosphere by chemical means) will likely be needed in order to ensure that any rise above 1.5C is only temporary. However, this technology is expensive, often untested and has not been used in any large-scale way.
Finance
Money is – unsurprisingly – at the heart of much of this. The report makes it clear that more money has to flow to renewable energy solutions and less money should flow to the fossil fuel companies. Indeed, Greenpeace says if government subsidies for fossil fuel companies were removed, emissions would reduce 10 per cent by 2030. More finance needs to flow to the Developing World for both mitigation adaptation. The good news is we have enough money to do all this; the bad news is that not enough it currently being done.
What about individual role in reducing emissions?
This is the first IPCC report to really highlight the social sciences and in particular, what the report calls “demand management”- changing the way we live, from reducing the amount of meat we eat to the type of transport we take to the houses we live in. The report also highlights the disproportionately negative effect the top 10 per cent of the world are having on the climate, contributing up to 45 per cent of consumption-based household emissions.
Is there any good news?
Some. The average annual rate of emissions growth has slowed in the past ten years from 2.1 per cent per year in the early 2000s to 1.3 per cent per year between 2010 and 2019. This is particularly noticeable in the energy and industry sectors where the rate of growth has more than halved. Zero emissions targets have been set by at least 826 cities and 103 regions, while a number of countries have achieved a steady decrease in emissions, consistent with limiting warming to 2C. Another success is around renewable energy with big decreases in unit costs, particularly in solar energy (85 per cent drop), onshore wind (55 per cent drop) and batteries for electric vehicles (85 per cent). However, without sustained
So, there still is hope?
Yes, but the window of opportunity to solve this crisis is closing. The report highlights a number of ways that we can successfully tackle the climate crisis. These steps won’t be easy, but they are achievable, and include: closing investment gaps, particularly in the Developing World for both climate change adaptation and mitigation; Increased investment in low-emission technological innovation to help the transition away from fossil fuels; Increased international partnerships and co-operation. Key to all this is political will – governments need to do more to transition away from fossil fuels and stave of the worst effects of the climate crisis.
What happens next?
Governments will meet at COP27 in Egypt this November, aiming to keep their emissions reduction commitments in line with 1.5C. Yet with rising inflation and an unstable geopolitical situation, it remains to be seen what progress can be made in Sharm El Sheikh.
What can I do?
As Guterres said: “Make your voice heard, wherever decisions are taken — in political debates, local authorities, boardrooms and at the ballot box. Demand an end to coal-fired power. Call for renewable energy to be deployed rapidly and widely.” Contact your local representatives and ask them if they have read the report. If they haven’t, send them a copy. If they have, ask them what they are doing to help tackle the climate crisis. While systemic change is needed, grassroots activism is also vital. So much of human progress has been the result of people power. Key is not to give up hope – you can make a difference.