Mitigation Analysis

Venezuelan Energy System

The Venezuelan energy system network was simulated with the BALANCE Module. Figure III.1 shows a general outline of the main components of the energy supply and demand areas. Figure III.2 shows the supply network structure, outlining the types of resources available, the processes used in their production and their transformation into secondary energy as well as the products obtained.

The demand area was developed beginning with the streams of the various fuels supplied to the end consumption sectors, which were separated into sub-sectors that show an energy behavior that could be differentiated either by the fuels used, the uses of energy or the demand s future development. The consumption by type of fuel in each sub-sectors was breakdown by energy uses.

The energy demands, which constitute the network s last level, were expressed in terms of the useful energy required for each use in every sub-sector, except for the transportation sector, where transport demands (passenger-kilometers and tons-kilometers) were used.

The different fuels that meet these demands converge through processes which represent the conversion of final energy into useful energy; these processes are characterized by the conversion efficiency and the technology type and cost. Figure III.3 shows the demand network structure outlining the disaggregation by sub-sectors and the uses of energy considered for each sector.

For the simulation of energy system's network for the base year, the 1990 National Energy Balance and the 1993 MEM/RISO/UNEP study were used; the estimates of costs and prices were based on data provided by MEM and PDVSA. The results obtained from the BALANCE model for the base year, reflect differences between 2 - 3% with respect to the data provided. These differences may be regarded as acceptable since the prospective assessments are generally based on a series of assumptions where this margin of error is irrelevant.

The industrial sector was breakdown in accordance with two digit groups of the Uniform Industrial International Classification (UIIC). Energy consumption of each fuel used in these groups was separated into the most important final uses, and for that purpose, information obtained from the Manufacturing Industry Energy Survey (MEM/OCEI, 1990) was used. The sector's consumption is represented by 45 demand nodes. Figure III.4 shows energy consumption by branches and uses.

For the transportation sector, consumption of each fuel was separated per transportation mode and type of vehicle. Each type of vehicle was separated into "old" and "new" vehicles. The "old" include all the stock for 1990 and the "new" the vehicles that begin to circulate after that year. The energy consumption data used were obtained from estimates made by Pulido G., 1990 and MEM/RISO, 1994. Figure III.5 shows the distribution of the road transportation sector's consumption during the base year and reflects the importance of passenger transportation.

The residential sector was subdivided into three urban areas and one rural area. The urban areas differ according to the populations standard of living, which at the same time characterizes and differentiates energy consumption and its development. For each area, the uses of energy specified in Figure III.6 are considered and the sector demand is expressed in terms of useful energy through 24 demand nodes; one for each use in each node. Figure 8 shows each area's consumption distribution by uses.

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