Mitigation Analysis

Methods and Instruments

The mitigation assessment includes the selection of options and evaluation of their impacts on CO2 emissions and the energy system, including associated cost. The main barriers and the necessary policies for options implementation were also identified. An integrated study of the national energy supply and demand systems was carried out in order to identify, evaluate and compare possible mitigation options.

Two scenarios were considered, according to the Guidelines for Mitigation Assessments (Sathaye and Meyers, 1995): i) A baseline scenario, consisting on a description of the possible future of Venezuelan energy system, where no specific actions to reduce GHG gas emissions will be taken; this scenario includes the adoption of enhanced technologies and actions to obtain a greater efficiency in the use of resources and ii) a mitigation scenario, which describes a similar future to that of the baseline scenario regarding the evolution of macroeconomic and social aspects, but assuming that efforts will be made as to the adoption of measures to reduce GHG emissions.

The assessment considered the following activities:

Development of macroeconomic scenario; prospective of baseline energy demand using he LEAP model; evaluetion of the power system expansion, using the ELECTRIC module of the ENPEP model and PLHITER model; construction and projection of the energy system's supply and demand network using the BALANCE module of the ENPEP model; estimation of the baseline scenario parameters; identification and assessment of potential mitigation options; impact assessment of several mitigation options with the BALANCE module; and identification of barriers and feasible mitigation options.

The "Long range Energy Alternative Planning" (LEAP) is a model developed at the Tellus Institute. This model allows the construction of several economic growth scenarios that can be translated into different energy demand forecast. The "Energy Planning and Power Evaluation Program" (ENPEP) model is a microcomputer energy planning package developed by Argonne National Laboratory; it consists of ten technical modules and one executive module. The modules used for the mitigation assessment of the Venezuelan energy sector were: BALANCE which is based on an equilibrium model to project the balance of energy supply and demand within a study period of more than 30 years; ELECTRIC which calculates an expansion plan of the power generation system, at a minimum cost.

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