United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - Secretariat

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Climate Negotiators Confront Kyoto Deadline US Proposal May be Presented in Bonn

BONN, 17 October 1997 (UNFCCC) - The Ad hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM) starts its eighth and last session here on 22 October under great pressure to finalize as much text as possible for a new agreement on cutting greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries.

AGBM Chairman Raul Estrada-Oyuela (Argentina) has produced a "chairman's text" containing the shortest and most streamlined version yet of a future agreement. Based on this text, delegates from some 150 countries will try to hammer out by 31 October a draft instrument containing legally binding targets and timetables for emissions reductions. They will also try to develop text on a series of related issues such as possible regimes for emissions trading, joint activities, and internationally coordinated policies and measures.

"The Chairman's text is a good basis for significant progress in Bonn", said Michael Zammit Cutajar, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). "The prospectof a US proposal for targets and timetables joining those made by the European Union and Japan has set the negotiations alight."

As of several days ago, the US had not submitted a proposal for specific targets and timetables. The US delegation may, however, bring such a proposal to the Bonn meeting, following a recent White House Conference at which various policy options were aired.

Three weeks ago, Japan - which as host Government of the Kyoto conference has a central role to play in finding a consensus - proposed that developed countries reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide by 5% measured as an average over the period 2008 - 2012. This target, however, could be lowered for individual countries according to various formulas involving GDP, per capita emissions, and population trends. Thus, most developed countries could opt for a lower target; for example, one calculation would produce targets of some 2.5% for Japan and the US.

The European Union has proposed cutting emissions of the same gases by 15% by the year 2010. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) was pushing for 20% reductions in CO2 by 2005. The reference year for all the reductions proposed so far would be 1990.

Targets and timetables are closely linked to several other critical but unresolved issues. One of these is "flexibility" in how emissions cuts are made. Governments must decide: Should a target be expressed as a certain level to be achieved by a specific date, or as a "budget" to be achieved over a period of several years? Should it be possible to "bank" any over-achievement in a given period for future use, or to "borrow" (with a penalty charge) from the next budget period to cover underachievement during the current one? Should developed countries be allowed to achieve part or all of their committed emission reductions "offshore" at less cost through joint implementation (JI) or emissions trading?

Another issue is "differentiation": Governments must determine whether the same target will apply to all developed countries or whether each developed country will have an individual target that reflects its economic profile (emissions intensity of GDP, for example). Supporters of differentiation argue that individual targets would help equalize the economic costs to each country of achieving its target. The Japanese proposal allows for differentiation.

These issues have all been extensively discussed over the last seven sessions of the AGBM. At the end of its previous session in August, Chairman Estrada said, "We are leaving Bonn today with the various options fully articulated and clarified for all to see and understand. When we come back for our final session in October governments will be well positioned to choose amongst them."

Under the Convention, developed countries have agreed to take measures aimed at returning their greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. At the first session of the treaty's Conference of the Parties (COP) in 1995, the international community recognized that stronger measures were needed to minimize the risk of climate change. The Ad hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate was established to negotiate new developed-country commitments for the post-2000 period. The AGBM was also tasked with advancing the implementation of existing commitments by both developed and developing countries.

Two other "subsidiary bodies" of the Convention will meet during the period of 20-29 October at the Beethovenhalle in Bonn: the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) and the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA).

Note to journalists: UNFCCC Executive Secretary Michael Zammit Cutajar will brief the press on Monday, 20 October, at 12:00 noon in Beethovenhalle, Bonn, on the forthcoming meetings. For more information, please contact Michael Williams, Information Unit for Conventions, Geneva at (+41-22) 979 9242/44, fax (+41-22) 797 3464, e-mail mwilliams@unep.ch. For information on accreditation and related matters, please contact the United Nations Information Centre in Bonn, at (+49-228) 815 2770, fax (+49-228) 815 2777, e-mail unic@uno.de. Official documents and other materials are available in English on the Internet at http://www.unfccc.de.