United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - Secretariat

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not an official document.

Bonn, October 1997 -Since its adoption five years ago at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Convention has been the centrepiece of the international community's effort to combat global warming. It has also become an essential tool in the transition to sustainable development. A great deal has been accomplished since Rio - but the most difficult work still lie ahead.

The environmental challenge

Swedish scientist Svante Ahrrenius warned that carbon dioxide emissions could lead to global warming as long ago as 1898. But it was not until the 1970s that a growing understanding of the earth-atmosphere system brought this previously obscure scientific concern to wider attention.

To give policymakers and the general public a better insight into what researchers were learning, the UN Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The IPCC was given a mandate to assess the state of existing knowledge about the climate system and climate change; the environmental, economic, and social impacts of climate change; and the possible response strategies.

The IPCC released its First Assessment Report in 1990. Approved after a painstaking peer review by hundreds of leading scientific and technical experts, the Report confirmed the scientific basis for climate change. It had a powerful effect on both policymakers and the general public and helped to spur negotiations for a climate change treaty.

This is what the IPCC has found (as of 1997):

*Humanity's emissions of "greenhouse gases" are expected to cause a rapid climate change. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is produced by fossil fuels and deforestation. Methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) are released from agriculture, changes in land use, and other sources. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other gases also play a role. By thickening the atmospheric "blanket" of greenhouse gases, mankind's emissions are upsetting the natural flow of energy (which arrives from the sun and is eventually sent back out into space) that drives the climate system.

* Climate models project a global temperature rise of about 1-3.5°C between now and the year 2100. This projection is based on current emissions trends and contains many uncertainties, particularly at the regional level. Because the climate does not respond immediately to greenhouse gas emissions, it will continue to change for hundreds of years after atmospheric concentrations have stabilized. Meanwhile, rapid and unexpected climate transitions cannot be ruled out. There is evidence that climate change may have already begun.

* A climate change of this magnitude would have dramatic impacts on the global environment. In general, the faster the climate changes, the greater will be the risk of damage. The mean sea level is expected to rise 15-95 cm by the year 2100, causing flooding and other damage. Climate zones (and thus ecosystems and agricultural zones) could shift towards the poles by 150-550 km in the mid-latitude regions. Forests, deserts, rangelands, and other unmanaged ecosystems could become wetter, drier, hotter, or colder. As a result, many ecosystems may decline or fragment, and individual species will become extinct.

* Human society will face new risks and pressures. Global food security is unlikely to be threatened by climate change, but some regions may experience food shortages and hunger. Water resources will be affected as precipitation and evaporation patterns change around the world. Physical infrastructure will be damaged, particularly by sea-level rise and extreme events, which may increase in frequency and intensity in some regions. Economic activities, human settlements, and human health will experience many direct and indirect effects. The poor are the most vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change.

* People and ecosystems will need to adapt to the future climate regime. Past and current emissions have already committed the earth to some degree of climate change in the 21^st century. Adapting to this new climate will require a good understanding of socio-economic and natural systems, their sensitivity to climate change, and their inherent ability to adapt. Many strategies are available for promoting adaptation.

* Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will require a major effort. Based on current trends, the total climatic impact of rising levels of greenhouse gases will be equal to that caused by a doubling of pre-industrial CO₂ concentrations by 2030, and a trebling or more by 2100. Freezing global emissions at their current levels would postpone CO₂-doubling to 2100. Emissions would eventually have to fall to less than 30% of their current levels for concentrations to stabilize at doubled-CO₂ levels sometime in the future. Such cuts would have to be made despite growing populations and an expanding world economy.

The Convention

In response to this growing scientific understanding, a series of intergovernmental conferences focusing on climate change were held in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In 1990, the Second World Climate Conference called for a framework treaty on climate change. Sponsored by WMO, UNEP, and other international organizations, this conference featured negotiations and ministerial-level discussions among 137 states plus the European Community.

The final declaration, adopted after hard bargaining, did not specify any international targets for reducing emissions. However, it did support a number of principles later included in the Climate Change Convention. These were climate change as a "common concern of humankind", the importance of equity, the "common but differentiated responsibilities" of countries at different levels of development, sustainable development, and the precautionary principle (which states that the absence of full scientific certainty should not be used as an excuse for inaction).

Meanwhile, the general public was starting to react. Although not clearly attributable to climate change, heat waves and record storms in the US and elsewhere led to a series of press reports about climate change and its expected impacts. The high tide of environmental sentiment plus the 1985 discovery of the Antarctic ozone "hole" (although not directly related to the problem of climate change) further stoked the public's concern.

Then, in December 1990, the UN General Assembly approved the start of treaty negotiations. The Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change (INC/FCCC) met for five sessions between February 1991 and May 1992. Facing a strict deadline - the June 1992 Rio Earth Summit - negotiators finalized the Convention in just 15 months. It was adopted in New York on 9 May 1992 and signed by 154 States (plus the European Union) several weeks later in Rio.

The new Convention established a process for responding to climate change over the decades to come. In particular, it set up a system whereby governments report information on their national greenhouse gas emissions and climate change strategies; this information is reviewed on a regular basis in order to track the Convention's progress. In addition, developed countries agreed to promote the transfer of funding and technology to help developing countries respond to climate change. They also accepted a non-binding commitment to take measures aimed at returning their greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. The Convention entered into force on 21 March 1994 and today boasts close to 170 Parties.

The Berlin Mandate

After the Rio Earth Summit, the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee met for another six sessions to discuss matters relating to commitments, arrangements for the "financial mechanism", technical and financial support to developing countries, and procedural and institutional matters. The INC completed its work at its 11^th and final session in February 1995, and the Conference of the Parties (COP) became the Convention's ultimate authority. The COP held its first session in Berlin from 28 March - 7 April 1995.

The Convention required COP-1 to review whether the commitment of developed countries to take measures aimed at returning their emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000 was adequate for meeting the Convention's objective. The Parties agreed that new commitments were indeed needed for the post-2000 period. They established the Ad hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM) to draft "a protocol or another legal instrument" for adoption at COP-3 in December 1997 in Kyoto.

The AGBM will have met eight times between August 1995 and its final session in October 1997. The Berlin Mandate calls on governments to establish specific, legally-binding targets and timetables for reducing developed country emissions of greenhouse gases. The AGBM process is not to consider any new commitments for developing countries. As of September 1997, a number of proposals were on the table, including one by the Association of Small Island States for a 20% cut in CO₂ by the year 2005 and one by the European Union for cuts of 7.5% by 2005 and 15% by 2010 in a "basket" of gases including CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O.

This core issue of targets and timetables has been discussed in the context of several related questions. The US and other delegations have argued for "flexibility", which could include emissions trading (whereby a country that exceeds its emissions quota can buy another country's unused quota), joint implementation (whereby a country receives credit for emissions reductions it finances in another country), and multi-year "budget" periods (as opposed to specific dates). "Differentiation" refers to the idea that developed countries could adopt an overall target and then share it out amongst themselves, rather than each adopting a uniform target. Another key issue has been whether or not developed countries should be required to coordinate the policies and measures that they use to achieve the targets agreed (as proposed by the EU).

Meanwhile, the IPCC adopted its Second Assessment Report in December 1995 and published it in April 1996. The Report was written and reviewed by some 2,000 scientists and experts world-wide. It was soon widely known for concluding that "the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate." However, the Report did much more, for example confirming the availability of so-called no-regrets options and other cost-effective strategies for combating climate change.

Soon after, an important step in the Berlin Mandate process was taken with the convening of the COP's second session from 8-19 July 1996. Ministers released a declaration that stressed the need to accelerate talks on strengthening the Convention and endorsed the Second Assessment Report "as currently the most comprehensive and authoritative assessment of the science of climate change, its impacts and response options now available." They further stated that the IPCC Report "should provide a scientific basis for urgently strengthening action at the global, regional and national levels, particularly action by Annex I (industrialized) countries to limit and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases ?"

The political challenge

Both climate change damages and policies to minimize these damages have enormous environmental and economic implications. The costs of climate change will vary widely from country to country. Developed countries are responsible for over two thirds of past emissions and some 75% of current emissions, but they are best positioned to protect themselves from damage. Developing countries tend to have low per-capita emissions, are in great need of economic development, and are more vulnerable to climate change impacts.

These differences have helped to shape the positions that governments take in international talks. The key players that will influence the final outcome of the Berlin Mandate process at COP-3 in Kyoto are:

* The European Union. In response to environmental concerns, the EU (or, legally, the European Community for Convention purposes) played a leading role in launching the Convention negotiations. The EU has proposed making important emissions reductions by 2010 and prefers that this be achieved through a set of common or coordinated policies and measures. Although the EU has not supported differentiated targets for all developed countries, it plans to share out its own target internally on the basis that the EU itself is a Party (in addition to its individual members).

* JUSSCANNZ. The non-EU developed countries include Japan, the US, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Norway, and New Zealand. While these countries meet on a regular basis they do not necessarily act in concert. Some members of this group tend to share an interest in more "flexible" approaches to limiting greenhouse gas emissions. As of end September, only Switzerland had made a formal proposal (later withdrawn) on targets and timetables.

* Countries with economies in transition. The industrialized countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are important emitters of greenhouse gases. Due to the economic slump that has accompanied the transition from communism, they will likely succeed in keeping their emissions below 1990 levels through the year 2000. Afterwards, however, their economies and emissions levels are expected to revive. Russia has proposed that the EU and JUSSCANNZ countries should have stronger emissions reduction targets than the countries in transition.

* The Group of 77 and China. Developing countries work through the G77 to develop common positions on emissions-reduction commitments and financial and technological transfers. However, the members of the G77 often have widely differing interests. For example, China and others have enormous coal resources that are vital to their economic development. African countries tend to be concerned about vulnerability and impacts. Many of the Asian "tigers" are concerned about the possibility of being next in line for emissions-reduction targets. Countries with large forestry sectors are sensitive to the implications of treating forests as carbon sinks. And so on.

* The Alliance of Small Island States. The AOSIS countries played a prominent part in galvanizing support for the Convention. They are particularly vulnerable to the risk of sea-level rise and therefore strongly support rapid action to reduce emissions.

* The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC members tend to be concerned about the possible impact on their economies if other countries reduce their use of oil. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and others have emphasized the existence of scientific uncertainty and argued that the Convention process should move forward cautiously.

* Business. The first business groups to attend the climate talks as observers represented energy-intensive firms concerned about the negative economic implications of limiting greenhouse gas emissions. More recently, other business sectors have become active in the process, including the insurance sector, which sees itself as vulnerable to increased storms and other possible climate change impacts, and clean energy firms, which see market opportunities.

* Environmentalists. Green groups have been active in the climate change arena since the very beginning. Many are active in lobbying delegates and the media and produce a widely read newsletter called "Eco" during international meetings. The majority are from developed countries although constant efforts are made to expand the participation of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) from developing countries.

* Local authorities. Many cities around the world have launched climate change plans that are even more ambitious than those of their national governments. Urban governments are critically important because of their role in managing energy utilities, public transport, and other emissions-producing activities of the public sector. Mayors and other urban leaders have joined together in an association to present their views to delegations at Convention-related meetings.

Beyond politics: what countries are really doing

The sharing of information by governments is central to how the Climate Change Convention works. Parties must therefore submit "national communications" to the Conference of the Parties on a regular basis. This information about national greenhouse gas emissions, international cooperation, and national activities is reviewed periodically so that the Parties can track the Convention's effectiveness and draw lessons for future national and global action.

The 1996 review of national communications from developed countries reveals that carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise in most of them. Comparing the data from 1990 inventories with projections for the year 2000 shows carbon dioxide emissions rising over the decade if additional measures are not adopted. The major exceptions are the countries with economies in transition. For methane, all but three Parties project that their emissions will decline or stabilize over the decade. Nitrous oxide trends are not clear, although some countries project major decreases.

The data also shows that carbon dioxide accounts for 80.5% of total greenhouse gas emissions from developed countries. Fuel combustion is confirmed as the most important source of CO₂. With the 33 countries included accounting for around 63% of the global CO₂ emissions in 1990, this seems to confirm carbon dioxide as the most important greenhouse gas resulting from human activities.

Developed countries are exploring a wide range of climate change policies and measures. The policies governments choose are generally dictated by national circumstances such as political structure and the overall economic situation. Many are "no-regrets" measures that have environmental or economic benefits irrespective of climate change concerns. In addition to regulatory and economic instruments, Parties are promoting voluntary agreements with industry and public authorities. Other measures involve research and development, and information and education.

Specific measures are being used for most of the major economic sectors. Policies for the energy sector (the largest source of emissions for many countries) include switching to low- or zero-carbon fuels, reforming market regulations to spur competition, and removing subsidies on coal. Industry-related policies include voluntary arrangements, standards, financial incentives, and liberalized energy prices.

The focus in the residential, commercial, and institutional sector is on energy-efficiency standards for new buildings, higher energy prices, and public information campaigns. Agricultural measures include reducing herd sizes and fertilizer use and improving waste management. While most governments project an expansion of the transportation sector, relatively few measures for controlling its emissions were reported.

The second round of communications from developed countries should be completed soon. Developing countries started making their initial submissions in early 1997.

The Kyoto agreement
Governments expect to agree on a "protocol or another legal instrument" when they meet in Kyoto for COP-3 from 1 - 10 December 1997. If the agreement is a protocol it will only become legally binding on its members after it has been ratified by a certain number of countries. This should take a couple of years or more.

Meanwhile, any details about the various procedures or conditions for reducing emissions that were not agreed or elaborated by COP-3 will need to be worked out. New national communications containing updated information about national emissions and action plans will be received and reviewed. In November 1998, governments will attend COP-4 to, among other things, once again formally review the adequacy of developed country commitments under the Convention.

In the first years of the 21^st century, a successful Kyoto agreement will send convincing signals to markets, investors, and consumers and launch the transition to activities with lower greenhouse gas emissions. In this way Kyoto will establish itself as a major step in the international community's pursuit of a climate-friendly economy - one step on what promises to be a very long road.