We need decisive action in Kyoto
to limit greenhouse emissions

Kofi Annan, Secretary-General of the United Nations

There are times when only an act of courage can spur progress in world affairs. The Kyoto Conference on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be such a moment. At Kyoto, the industrialized countries will have an opportunity to exercise their power and wealth in the interest of sustainable development for the planet. By taking decisive action to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases to below 1990 levels by 2010, they will fulfil their commitment to lead a global and cooperative response to global warming in the next century - thereby driving the requisite technological changes and motivating developing countries, in turn, to limit the growth of their emissions.

A clear message

The recognition that the developed countries should take the lead in tackling climate change is one of the political cornerstones of the Convention. Not only are these countries responsible for the bulk of past and present emissions of the gases that are warming our atmospheric blanket; they will continue for many decades to have the highest rate of emissions per head. Moreover, they have the greatest economic and technological capacity for making emission cuts.

Thus, the world expects a clear message from these countries in Kyoto: that they are committed to targets and timetables for emissions cuts that are significant, binding and verifiable. Arrangements for increasing the flexibility and lowering the costs of these cuts, such as emissions trading and joint implementation, must be seen to enhance - and not postpone - serious domestic measures to put production and consumption on climate-friendly paths.

This message will have two audiences: first, the people, companies, and communities of the developed countries themselves. Action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is largely about changing attitudes and expectations and only secondarily about writing new rules and regulations. If investors and consumers are convinced by what they hear from Kyoto, then half the battle will be won. Forward-looking corporations will invest in profitable responses to the growing demand for products and services that emit less, notably in the provision of electricity and motor vehicle transport. This will encourage a shift in long-term emissions trends.

In the second place, the Kyoto message will be aimed at the governments and people of the developing countries, notably those with large populations and dynamic economies. The sheer volume of greenhouse gases emitted from these countries is such that no global effort to control emissions can succeed without a progressively greater contribution from them, consistent with their aims to enable their people to enjoy a better life. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to generate political and public support in these countries for the distant goal of climate protection, without evidence that developed countries are serious about limiting their own emissions and providing financial and technological support to help others do the same. While developing countries are already undertaking important voluntary measures, a convincing signal from Kyoto is a political precondition for them to consider accepting commitments to limit emissions.

It is in the interests of all countries - developed and developing - to move step by step in this way towards comprehensive global action to reduce atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and so minimize the adverse effects of global warming.

Post-Kyoto perspectives

In the short term, governments will encourage Ano regrets@ options for limiting emissions in ways that also generate economic benefits (for example the removal of distorting subsidies) or help to abate other immediate environmental problems (such as the health effects of air pollution). In the medium term, the response to climate change will need to become ever more integrated into the responses to other problems and opportunities. The community of nations will face new and complex challenges in the coming decades that will increasingly intersect with climate change. This means that success in Kyoto will also help achieve the goals of sustainable development set at the Rio Earth Summit, including:

*Sustainable energy systems. The world must switch to energy systems that respect the atmosphere=s limited capacity for absorbing carbon dioxide while minimizing the exploitation of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) that cannot be replaced. If countries incorporate climate change concerns into their development priorities, then the new transport and industrial systems of the 21^st century will have a much lighter overall impact on the planet.

*Sustainable consumption. The world=s richest countries have a particularly high per-capita impact on our already stressed natural systems. Ways of life that consume materials less intensively would minimize the production of greenhouse gas emissions, solid wastes, and toxic chemicals as well as the depletion of forests and other natural resources.

*Population growth. The billions of people that will be born in the next century will place enormous pressure on land and other resources. Limiting population growth would reduce this pressure while moderating projected trends in greenhouse gas emissions. It would also ease crowding along low-lying coastlines and in other regions that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts.

* Biological diversity. Species and ecosystems are being destroyed at a rapid pace, and future climate change will accelerate these losses. Fortunately, reforestation and other strategies to protect biodiversity can also help to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions (by absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere).

* Dryland degradation. Climate change is expected to cause greater dryness in some regions, while the process of desertification contributes to net greenhouse gas emissions. Improved land management can contribute to the solutions of both problems.

In addressing these interlocking problems, civil society must play a crucial role. Local communities and businesses will find the most innovative and unexpected solutions, and more quickly than many now imagine possible. Educators, the media, and non-governmental organizations are already driving the sea-change in attitudes and in personal actions that will be so vital to effecting real change. Kyoto must encourage these key actors to persevere.

The challenge

Much, then, is at stake in Kyoto. Success depends on the readiness of States to take action despite the lack of complete scientific understanding. This Aprecautionary approach@ has served us well in our narrow escape from destroying the earth=s stratospheric ozone layer. Today, once again, scientists have confirmed that we face a major risk. The best global insurance policy against this risk will be an early start on emissions reductions.

We all know that in our personal lives, no less than in affairs of state, it can be difficult to heed long-term and unclear risks, no matter how potentially serious. This is what makes leadership so essential today. The global community will not solve the climate change problem at one stroke in Kyoto but, by moving from general pledges to a first phase of legally binding national targets for reducing emissions, it will have made a solution possible.