Mitigation Analysis

Mitigation Options Assessment - Transportation Sector

In Venezuela, big cities have high vehicle densities and especially, low fuel efficiency, mainly due to fleet age, poor maintenance, and high traffic volume. In order to accelerate an improvement of fuel efficiency in the transport sector, the Venezuelan government is developing an ambitious plan, focussing the effort initially, on the public transport fleet.

Three mitigation options were studied in detailed: Switching to larger capacity vehicles, Less Private Vehicles Share, and Switching from Gasoline to Natural Gas Vehicles. The baseline scenario considers a road vehicle fleet of 2.7 million units in 1990, where passenger vehicles represents 81%, and freight vehicles 19%. Table III.14 shows the basic information by vehicle type. Average transportation demand growth rate for 1990-2025 period is assumed to be 3.4% per year for both passenger and freight.

Regarding the demand structure evolution, private vehicles represented 33.2% of the total passanger vehicles demand in 1990, and it is assumed to grow at an average rate of 4% yearly, reaching 97,000 pass-km by 2025, which represents 40% of passanger vehicles demand. Public transportation share is assumed to decrease from 62.5% in 1990 to 22% by 2025. Railroad share maintains a small share of about 3.5%. Freight transportation basically maintains the same structure along the 1990-2025 period, where light 2 axle trucks share is 7.3%, heavy 2 axle trucks 13.7%, 3 axle 43%, and 4 axle trucks 35.7%.

OPTION 5: Switching to Larger Capacity Vehicles

This option consider the switching of public transportation from small buses to large buses. Also, a switching of light duty trucks to heavier trucks is assumed. The assumptions are:

-Private and public transport share in total passenger transportation demand are the same as the baseline scenario.Share of public transportation presents the following intermode change:

. small buses tend to disappear by 2010. . medium buses 1990-2025 growth rate per year changes slightly from 3.03% in the baseline case to 2.85%. . large buses share increases from 23% in 1995 to 35% in 2025, which represents a growth from 3.3% per year in the baseline case to 4.7%. -Two axle light duty vehicles demand share decreases from 8% in 1990 to 1.6% in 2025, while in the baseline scenario its share was almost constant. -Heavy duty freight share increases in 5.5% yearly along the period; in baseline case it is constant.

Table III.15 presents energy savings, CO2 emissions reduction, and transpotation costs.

OPTION 6: Smaller Private Vehicle Share

Private vehicles share in transportation demand (pass-km) decreases in relation to baseline case, while large buses share increases according to the following assumptions:

-Private vehicles share is maintained in 34%; the yearly growth during 1990-2025 period is 3.5%, while in the baseline case the share reached to 4% in 2025. -Large buses share increases from 23% in 1990 to 28% in 2025, which represents an increase of 4% per year.

Table III.16 presents energy savings, CO2 emissions reduction, and transpotation costs.

OPTION 7: Switching Gasoline to Natural Gas Vehicles (NGV).

Venezuelan government has initiated a promotion plan to switch gasoline by natural gas in public transportation. In this sense, the motor conversion is partially subsidized and the gas price is significantly low. The assumptions for this case are the following:

-Public transport demand is the same as baseline. -Conversion until 2000 will be 10000 small buses, 15000 medium buses, 10000 taxis, 25000 light duty trucks. -So, public transportation demand in 2000, satisfied by natural gas, is 7,073 passenger-km and in 2025 will be 16,042. -Energy intensity is the same in both gasoline and natural gas vehicles.

Table III.17 shows the assumed characteristics for converted and new NGV vehicles at the beginning of the program and Table III.18 presents energy savings, CO2 emissions reduction, and transpotation costs.

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