Mitigation Analysis

Baseline Scenario

An option to develop a baseline scenario in the forestry sector is based on the current trends of land use and consumption of forest products in the country (Sathaye and Meyers, 1995). However, one of the greatest limitations that most developing countries will probably have to face when developing this type of scenario is the lack of both reliable estimates on current land conversion from one use to another and long-term government plans that can provide future land use patterns.

The baseline for carbon dioxide emissions from land use change in Venezuela was developed using several assumptions regarding i) carbon emissions from forest conversion. and ii) carbon sequestration and conservation in forest plantations and managed natural forest. The assumptions mainly deals with rough estimates of the rate at which lands will be converted from and to forest use. Estimates of carbon emissions and sequestration are based on the IPCC/OECD methodology for national greenhouse gas emissions inventory.

Growing pressure from organized communities and public concern for environmental protection are assumed to have a positive impact on forest conservation in the long term. Application of legal instruments to control illegal clearcuting and forest harvesting is also expected to show a slight improvement. In addition, several policies have been recently adopted by the Venezuelan Forest Service (e.g. natural forest management and native species plantations) to control and reduce degradation of natural forests. Thus annual cleared area is assumed to drop between 30% and 40% towards 2025, as a result of both new policies implementation and better control. It should be noted that, although seeking to protect forest reserves and promote sustainable management, these measures do not deal directly with the driving factors of forest conversion (agriculture and pastures activities). This fact, coupled with a still prevailing limited institutional capacity for law enforcement and program implementation, is responsible for a rather conservative impact of these policies on average national deforestation, in the long run.

On the other hand, the country is going through an important economic crisis that might already be affecting the process of land use change. Among the most important related factors that determine the trends in land use change, it was found that government subsidies for agricultural activities have been drastically reduced while high inflation rates have considerably increased the cost of developing new agricultural lands and have produced an important reduction in wood consumption and production. Although the impact of such trends on future land use pattern are difficult to quantify and could instead be considered to have a temporary effect, it has been assumed that these trends could produce an additional 20% reduction in the base year's deforested area.

Thus annually cleared area in the period 1990-2025 is expected to decrease steadily. From 2025, which implies a deforestation rate reduction of one third as compared to the 1990«s figure. The total forest area of the country will then be reduced from an estimate of 51.8 millions ha in 1990 to 38.1 millions ha in 2022 (about 75% of the base-year forested area remains). Average deforestation will decrease slower at the beginning of the study period, showing a sharper decline from the middle of the period and on (Table 1).

Carbon dioxide emissions from forest clearing (excluding emissions from disturbed forest soils) will then reach about 54,000 Gg by 2025, a significant reduction with respect to the base year (84,790 Gg). Emissions do not decrease in the same proportion as deforestation does because average biomass density of cleared forests was assumed to increase from 115 tons of dry matter per ha (t dm/ha) to 160 t dm/ha (Table IV.3). This increase in biomass density is based on the assumption that a great fraction of forest clearing will occur in the southern region of the country, whose forest areas have been less affected by human intervention than the northern region where most of the population is concentrated.

Regarding carbon sequestration, the scenario assumes that annually planted area will be comparable to the average planted during the period 1970-90, reaching 20,000 ha/yr. This assumption is based on rough projections of ongoing and planned government and private plantation projects. The species that will be mainly planted are caribbean pine, eucalyptus, and, at smaller scales, other exotic and native fast growing species. Since these plantations are likely to be developed on marginal lands, the expected annual biomass accumulation tends to be rather low. On the other hand, the area of managed natural forest for sustainable wood production is estimated to double the average of the 1970-90 period, as a result of ongoing government policies to encourage the adoption of sustainable forest practices and improve harvesting control. An average of about 14,000 ha/yr of natural forests would then be added to the current commercially managed area. Based on these assumptions, annual carbon dioxide sequestration will reach about 11,000 Gg by 2025, doubling the base year figure (5530 Gg) (Table IV.4).

Net carbon dioxide emissions will reach about 43,000 Gg, which represents a decline of approximately 45% with respect to the base year (79,260 Gg). In addition to lower deforestation rates, the increase of the forest managed area is responsible for reduction of net carbon dioxide emissions in this scenario.

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