CSIRO results for SBSTA assessment

CSIRO Atmospheric Research

Phase 1 model results for SBSTA assessment for Brazilian Proposal. (revised 5 June 2002).

The CSIRO calculations for phase 1 were for 2 cases, termed default and preferred.

Default. As specified on the project web-site with the following choices to address incompleteness/ambiguity:

Initial concentrations as per TAR.
EDGAR emissions of CH₄, N₂O over historical period, with pre-1890 specified as linear back-extrapolation to zero in 1750.
Linear back-extrapolation of land-use change emissions to zero in 1750.

Preferred: As above with changes to calculation of gas concentrations.

CO₂, specified as balance of explicit air-sea gas exchange, explicit NPP change from CO2-fertilisation, decay/respiration response to NPP change, mixed layer response to air-sea exchange (the formalism of Joos et al, Tellus 48B, 397-417 (1996)). The CO₂-fertilisation was calibrated to a growth rate of 1.54 ppm/y over the 1980s. Initial concentration 282.5 ppm.
CH₄: Lifetime varies linearly from 8.4 y in 1900 to 10.0 y in 2100.
N₂O: spline fit to ice core data over historical period (i.e. historical emissions derived from inversion of spline).
halocarbons: concentrations of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from `Copenhagen-like' case in Table 2.5d of IPCC SAR.

For each case, the sequence of emissions to concentrations to forcing to temperature and sea-level was calculated integrating from 1740 to 2100. Results are tabulated below. Plots, including comparisons with the reference case, are given in the draft technical paper Modelling Earth System Change: I. Validating Parameterisations for Attribution Calculations, (CSIRO Atmospheric Research Technical Paper no. 56) by Enting and Trudinger.

Drafts of this document may be available on the assessment website at UEA.
Drafts with dates prior to June 12 do not incorporate the corrections and changes noted below.
The target for final publication on the CSIRO Atmospehric Resarch website is June 30.
Anticipated URL is http://www.dar.csiro.au/publications/enting_2002b.pdf

In addition, for the default case, calculations were performed with emissions ceasing at 1890, 1950, 1990, 2050. (Since the climate model response is linear, results for emissions starting at these dates can be obtained by differencing). Two cases were considered

(a) gas emissions ceased, aerosol forcing continued as specified;
(b) both gas emissions and aerosol forcing ceases at the specified times.

Tables

Default

Run of RUNSBSTA, version 20605 Testing SBSTA default
Date	CO₂	CH₄	N₂O	Forcing	Warming	Sea-level rise
	ppm	ppb	ppb	W m^-2	K	m
1800.0	281.30	782.7	275.64	0.0920	0.0472	0.0013
1810.0	281.81	802.5	275.90	0.1175	0.0633	0.0019
1820.0	282.38	822.3	276.20	0.1442	0.0806	0.0028
1830.0	283.02	842.2	276.53	0.1722	0.0989	0.0038
1840.0	283.75	862.0	276.89	0.2017	0.1184	0.0051
1850.0	284.57	881.9	277.27	0.2329	0.1391	0.0065
1860.0	285.50	901.8	277.68	0.2338	0.1591	0.0081
1870.0	286.53	921.6	278.12	0.2347	0.1608	0.0096
1880.0	287.85	941.5	278.58	0.2417	0.1646	0.0111
1890.0	289.59	961.3	279.06	0.2553	0.1720	0.0127
1900.0	291.58	989.1	279.55	0.2795	0.1842	0.0144
1910.0	294.58	1023.4	280.09	0.3012	0.1992	0.0162
1920.0	297.61	1061.5	280.72	0.3241	0.2164	0.0182
1930.0	300.83	1099.9	281.42	0.3510	0.2340	0.0203
1940.0	303.97	1137.2	282.16	0.3738	0.2519	0.0226
1950.0	307.95	1182.4	283.17	0.4169	0.2750	0.0251
1960.0	315.11	1269.3	284.61	0.4044	0.2862	0.0276
1970.0	325.66	1373.8	286.60	0.4554	0.3044	0.0303
1980.0	339.52	1473.9	289.54	0.6185	0.3579	0.0335
1990.0	355.44	1569.3	293.47	0.8686	0.4803	0.0383
2000.0	369.41	1620.5	305.26	1.0805	0.6235	0.0445
2010.0	386.40	1704.8	317.48	1.3321	0.7757	0.0522
2020.0	408.57	1836.2	331.24	1.6679	0.9632	0.0618
2030.0	436.12	1997.5	346.42	2.0696	1.1978	0.0738
2040.0	466.12	2167.2	362.02	2.4789	1.4640	0.0885
2050.0	497.21	2334.4	377.64	2.8726	1.7367	0.1058
2060.0	530.35	2500.9	393.55	3.4191	2.0514	0.1261
2070.0	566.00	2668.4	410.04	3.9670	2.4102	0.1498
2080.0	605.06	2839.5	427.05	4.5237	2.7877	0.1771
2090.0	649.09	3013.4	444.44	5.0981	3.1808	0.2080
2100.0	698.28	3189.3	462.08	5.6861	3.5892	0.2426

Preferred

Run of RUNSBSTA, version 20605 Testing Preferred case for SBSTA
Date CO₂ CH₄ N₂O Forcing Warming Sea-level rise

ppm ppb ppb W m^-2 K m

1800.0 283.68 782.7 274.72 0.0863 0.0446 0.0012

1810.0 284.12 802.5 274.58 0.1091 0.0592 0.0018

1820.0 284.61 822.3 274.47 0.1329 0.0747 0.0026

1830.0 285.16 842.2 274.44 0.1578 0.0911 0.0036

1840.0 285.78 862.0 274.50 0.1842 0.1085 0.0047

1850.0 286.49 881.9 274.68 0.2124 0.1271 0.0060

1860.0 287.28 901.8 274.99 0.2104 0.1451 0.0074

1870.0 288.16 921.6 275.42 0.2083 0.1447 0.0088

1880.0 289.31 941.5 275.99 0.2124 0.1464 0.0101

1890.0 290.85 961.3 276.73 0.2230 0.1517 0.0115

1900.0 292.60 989.1 277.69 0.2444 0.1617 0.0130

1910.0 295.30 1024.6 278.84 0.2632 0.1746 0.0146

1920.0 297.99 1065.5 280.69 0.2859 0.1903 0.0163

1930.0 300.82 1107.7 282.27 0.3112 0.2070 0.0182

1940.0 303.57 1149.5 282.87 0.3292 0.2228 0.0202

1950.0 307.11 1200.1 284.31 0.3696 0.2431 0.0224

1960.0 313.77 1294.1 288.38 0.3615 0.2538 0.0247

1970.0 323.76 1408.7 293.16 0.4718 0.2883 0.0272

1980.0 337.06 1520.9 300.72 0.7323 0.3829 0.0310

1990.0 352.52 1630.4 308.05 1.0753 0.5607 0.0368

2000.0 366.19 1695.7 318.68 1.3150 0.7462 0.0445

2010.0 383.19 1794.7 329.83 1.5450 0.9118 0.0537

2020.0 406.11 1945.3 342.60 1.8709 1.0981 0.0646

2030.0 435.71 2131.7 356.87 2.2833 1.3347 0.0780

2040.0 469.41 2331.8 371.64 2.7233 1.6130 0.0942

2050.0 505.95 2533.3 386.48 3.1647 1.9091 0.1132

2060.0 546.73 2737.4 401.69 3.7752 2.2581 0.1356

2070.0 592.80 2945.7 417.53 4.4052 2.6627 0.1619

2080.0 645.76 3161.0 433.94 5.0622 3.0979 0.1924

2090.0 708.25 3382.7 450.78 5.7569 3.5615 0.2272

2100.0 781.73 3610.1 467.92 6.4855 4.0541 0.2665

These results differ from those initially submitted by:

Correcting error in specification of climate responses
Correcting minor error that had one aerosol forcing component finish at 2099.0 rather than 2100.0
Consistently interpret all emissions for particular years as representing mid-year values (and using linear interpolation between these).
For our preferred CO₂ case, re-adjust the pre-industrial equilibrium and start from 282.5 ppm (value typical of period before the Little Ice Age.)

Contact: ian.enting@csiro.au cathy.trudinger@csiro.au
Mail address: CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB 1, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia