Distr.

GENERAL

FCCC/IDR.1(SUM)/POL

1 June 1998

GE.98

• The in-depth review of of the first national communication of Poland was carried out between March and May 1996 and included a visit to Warsaw from 25 to 29 March 1996. The review team included experts from the Czech Republic, Germany, the Philippines, and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO).

  
  
  

• The in-depth review substantially improved the transparency of the national communication, and the team's understanding of the challenges facing Poland in its process of economic transition. As a result of the radical reforms carried out in the period 1989-1993, which entailed a substantial drop in economic activity, greenhouse gas emissions expressed as carbon dioxide in (CO₂) equivalent decreased by over 25 per cent. The Polish economy remains highly carbon intensive, partly because of its large coal reserves. Poland is the fourth largest hard coal producer in the world. In addition, Poland's industry is mainly heavy industry with 75 per cent of the final energy consumed by engineering, metallurgy and the chemical industry. Poland's energy related CO₂ emissions per capita amount to 10.9 tonnes (t)CO₂ compared to 12 (t) on average for member countries of the OECD. In view of its candidacy for membership of the European Union, Poland is likely to adopt policies and measures relating to climate change that are in accordance with those decided upon by the European Union.

   

• Poland is seeking flexibility in implementing its commitments, in accordance with

Article 4.6 of the Convention, and requests acceptance of the 1988 level of greenhouse gas emissions, as the base level for the stabilization of emissions.

• The in-depth review of inventories was prepared in a transparent and facilitative manner. In addition to the inventory submitted in the Polish national communication, a new and more comprehensive version of the 1988 inventory was given to the review team. Drawing on several documents, which were also made available during the review, the review team was able to reconstruct 1988 emissions by sector. In making its calculations, Poland used country-specific emission or conversion factors, for example for the calculation of CO₂ methane and emissions.⁽²⁾ The factors were generally speaking lower than those assumed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. Poland does not produce sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) or hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). The team noted that bunker fuels, although not included in the emission totals, should be reported.

• During the review, comprehensive literature was provided on the projections, which considerably facilitated their understanding. The review team was impressed by the analytical capacity supporting the projections. Two projections of greenhouse gases (GHGs) were prepared by the Institute of Fundamental Technological Research of the Polish Academy of Science (IFTRPAS) and the Foundation for Energy Efficiency (FEWE) with the support of the United States Country Studies Program. The results generally indicate that Poland will meet its aim under the UNFCCC of limiting emissions to the 1988 level in the year 2000. A reduction of between 1 per cent and 14 per cent, depending on the growth rate of gross national product is, in fact estimated for the year 2000, but projections for the year 2010 differ as to whether emissions will remain below the 1988 level.

  
  
  

• The review team was given information on the status of implementation of measures described in the national communication as well as details of new policies and legislation, currently under government consideration, mainly concerned with energy, industry, transport and municipal development. The measures are not specifically designed to control greenhouse gas emissions, but rather to encourage economic efficiency and rational energy use, which may in turn affect GHG emissions.

  
  
  

• Concerning electricity generation, which is the major source of CO₂ emissions, the team was given to understand that energy policy will, inter alia, address the elimination of subsidies and price rationalization, and the demonopolization and privatisation of generation, transmission and distribution. Future CO₂ emissions from energy generation and transformation will be a function of (1) the ability of the new private generating companies to secure investment for modernizing existing plant equipment, installing environmental protection (such as end-of-pipe technology), and constructing new coal-fired and gas-fired combined cycle stations with higher efficiencies; (2) the availability of natural gas; and (3) the effectiveness with which the regulatory components of the new energy policy are implemented. Progress in this sector depends upon adoption by the parliament of a proposed new energy law and its implementing acts. Under this proposal, an independent Office of Energy Regulation will be created to monitor the production, transportation and distribution of energy, including electric power.

  
  
  

• According to the national communication, the volume of road traffic in Poland is expected to almost double by the end of the year 2000 with respect to the level of 1988. Far-reaching modernization and reconstruction of the whole transportation system, leading to large increases in road traffic for personal and even more for freight transport, is planned. The communication indicates that an ecological infrastructure fee is to be introduced for road traffic in order to maintain competition and 2,600 km of highways and 3,600 km of expressway are to be constructed. It is not clear what the trend in emissions from the transport sector will be in the future, that is, whether improvements in efficiency will off-set the growth in the number of vehicles or not.

  
  
  

• While much of the land surface of Poland is dedicated to agriculture and forestry, Poland has thus far only assessed the possible impacts of climate change on water management and on coastal areas. The results of water basin studies were considered to have low reliability because of uncertainty in the general circulation model results. They nevertheless pointed to the need for a "minimum regrets" strategy which solves current problems while preparing for droughts and floods.

  
  
  

• While Poland is not an Annex II Party, the team attempted to determine the extent to which technology was being transferred to developing countries, given the rapid economic changes that are occurring and the shifting trade patterns. No new initiatives regarding technology transfer were reported during the review.

  
  
  

• Poland participates in all major international programmes concerning global climate change, in particular the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, the IPCC, and the World Ocean Circulation experiment. Coordination of these programmes is the responsibility of the Polish Academy of Sciences. The most significant part of these studies has been undertaken by the Polish Hydrometeorological Service which is responsible for systematic observation of the climate in Poland.

  
  
  

• Poland has a strong non-governmental ecological movement, including such groups as the Polish Ecological Club, Polish Foundation for Energy Efficiency (FEWE), and the League for the Preservation of Nature. These groups conduct activities which support its aims of the national communication, including the promotion of energy efficiency and lower GHG emitting transportation options. One group, the Polish Ecological Club drafted the chapter on

non-governmental organizations in the communication.