Distr.
GENERAL
A/AC.237/NC/6
26 October 1994
Original: ENGLISH
INTERGOVERNMENTAL NEGOTIATING COMMITTEE
FOR A FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
In accordance with decision 9/2 of the Committee, the interim
secretariat is to make available, in the official languages of the
United Nations, the executive summaries of the national
communications submitted by Annex I Parties.
GE.94 -
|
Basic Data and National
Circumstances
1. Sweden had 8.7 million inhabitants in 1993. Population growth is approximately 0.6 percent per year which is about the average for other industrialized countries. Approximately 85% of the inhabitants live in urban areas.
2. The total area of Sweden is 450,000 km2. Compared to other OECD-countries, population density is low, on average 19 inhabitants per km2. However, a large part of the population is concentrated in three major urban areas. Sweden has a long shoreline and a very large number of lakes. Transportation needs are high due to low population density and long travel distances.
3. Forest covers 62 % of the total land area. Forest is one of the most important natural resources in Sweden. The timber stock volume - i.e the carbon reservoir - has grown from 2100 million forest cubic meter (m3sk) in 1920 to 2900 million m3sk in 1990. Historically the forest industry, together with the iron and steel industry, has been the backbone of the Swedish economy.
4. Energy intensive industries are very important to the Swedish economy. As in other industrialized countries a decline in the importance of the industrial sector has taken place during the last decade. In 1992, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita was SEK 165 700. Annual average real growth of the economy has been 1.8 per cent between 1975 and 1990. More recently Swedish economy has experienced a recession with low or negative growth in GDP.
5. The climate in Sweden is temperate, influenced by the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic ocean. The annual average temperature is only + 1.8 degrees Celsius(oC), ranging from +7oC in the south to -2oC in the north. The heating requirement for homes and other premises are significant during the winter season.
6. Total final energy demand has been almost constant during the
last 25 years, reaching 450 TWh/year. Hydro power has always played a
major role in the total electricity production. Since the 1970's
oil-crisis, the Swedish energy system has been significantly
restructured. Expansion of nuclear power has reduced oil consumption.
Also, different programmes for energy efficiency and oil substitution
have had a considerable effect. The share of fossil fuels in total
energy supply has dropped from 80% in 1970 to 50% in 1990. Nuclear
and hydro today produce approximately 95% of the total electricity
generated.
Inventory of Greenhouse Gases
7. An inventory of greenhouse gas emissions and removals by sinks
has been performed according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) preliminary methodology and the decision made by
Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC). The inventory data are
presented in Table 1 for the base year 1990. Gaps in inventory data
are indicated in the figure below.
8. Carbon dioxide accounts for most of the greenhouse gas
emissions in Sweden. More than 80 % of total greenhouse gas emissions
calculated as GWP-100 is attributed to carbon dioxide. Transportation
is the most important sector accounting for 40% of the total carbon
dioxide emissions. Since 1970, carbon dioxide emissions has declined
considerably. ( Figure 1) Since 1970 emissions have decreased
approximately 40 per cent. While emissions from the energy sector and
from manufacturing industry have steadily declined, emissions from
the transportation sector have increased.
9. Table 1 shows that carbon dioxide emissions were 61.3 million
tonnes in 1990. However, if emissions are adjusted for normal
climatic conditions the emissions would have been 64 million
tonnes.
10. The largest sources of methane emissions in Sweden are the agricultural sector and refuse disposal.
11. Nitrous oxide emissions are poorly monitored. Burning of fuels
and releases from arable land are the most important
sources.
12. The Swedish forest today constitutes a sink for carbon
dioxide. The increment or annual growth of the forest is larger than
the harvest. That leads to accumulation of carbon dioxide in the
biomass. The net carbon dioxide accumulation in Swedish forests has
been estimated to nearly 35 million tonnes per year. This is more
than half of the annual emissions of fossil carbon dioxide
emissions.
13. However, most of the increment are anthropogenic, due to
forest management which raises the forest timber stock above the
level of non-managed forest.
Vulnerability
14. Average temperatures in Sweden increased from the middle of
18th century through the 1930's. From 1940 to 1960 the average
temperature decreased followed by a new period with raising
temperature. Even if most winters in the beginning of the 1990's were
unusually mild it is difficult to draw any definite conclusions from
current trends.
15. Sub-arctic ecosystems' like those in Sweden are sensitive
owing to long generation times, slow growth and irregular
reproduction. Initially climate change is expected to affect higher
mountain areas. The adaptability of these ecosystems is
limited.
16. Another vulnerable area is the Baltic Sea. The Baltic Sea
could be affected in three different ways; through sea level rise,
through warmer temperature in the water body and finally through
reduced salinity. Sea-level rise would cause serious erosion on the
southern coasts of the Baltic. Flooded areas in coastal zones may
increase the leakage of nitrogen to the sea. An increasing water
temperature would generate certain physiological changes in marine
organisms leading to modification in the fish population. The most
probable development would be that catchments of cod, salmon and
whitefish would decline, thus affecting fishery. The water exchange
in the Baltic is mostly controlled by runoff of surface water from
land areas and water exchange with the North Sea through the Belts
and the Sound (Öresund). Climate models predict more
precipitation in the winter, leading to an increase in runoff of
surface water to the Baltic. In such a case the salinity in the
Baltic sea could fall. If the interflow of oxygen-rich and saline
water coming from the Atlantic into the Baltic would be affected,
serious consequences could emerge.
17. Increasing air temperature and precipitation would result in
more rapid growth of forests. However some species are adapted to
cold winters and increasing temperature may enhance damage by insects
and pests. Spruce forests are expected to be the most vulnerable to
rapid changes in the climate. Obviously forestry must adapt its
management practises to any changing situations.
18. Global warming could also have other adverse effects on the environment. Transport patterns for air pollutants from Europe to Scandinavia could be changed. Conditions for ground-level ozone formation would become more favourable. If the frequencies of mild and wet winters could increase, the amount if nitrogen reaching the sea would grow, other circumstances being unchanged. Thus, if the environmental goals for acidification, eutrophication and air quality may be met, more stringent measures will be required due to global warming.
Policies and Measures
Overall Policy Context
19. Sweden has applied policies and measures for climate change
since 1988, when the issue was discussed in the Riksdag (Parliament)
for the first time. A more comprehensive programme was adopted by the
Riksdag in May 1993 the Government Bill on action to limit climate
change was adopted. The goal established by the Riksdag is that
emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels in the year 2000 shall,
pursuant to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, be
stabilised at the 1990 level and shall decline after
that.
20. Furthermore emissions of methane from disposal of wastes shall
be reduced by 30 percent between 1990 and 2000.
21. The main strategy for achieving the carbon dioxide goal is to
limit the demand for fossil fuels, replacing them with renewable
energy resources, along with improved energy management and more
efficient use of energy. Measures to improve energy efficiency
includes technology procurement and demonstration of electricity
efficient products, processes and systems in homes, non-housing
premises and industry. In contrast to other countries the possibility
of reduction of greenhouse gases by changes in the electricity sector
is very limited in Sweden. Today only five per cent of the
electricity is based on fossil fuels.
22. In the climate debate one could argue that policies and
measures should be concentrated to increase carbon storage in the
forest. However, whereas an increment of carbon storage is just
temporary, reductions in the use of fossil fuels gives permanent
effects. If biomass is grown in a sustainable way its production and
use cause no net build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Carbon
dioxide released in combustion is offset by reabsorption of carbon
dioxide by the biomass culture during photosynthesis. This imply that
one efficient way to reduce the atmospheric burden of fossil carbon
dioxide in Sweden is to expand the use of biomass and use it to
replace fossil fuels in the energy system.
23. In Sweden, economic instruments were introduced in
environmental policy in the mid-1970's and their use has since
increased and successively developed. In the field of climate change
the government places great attention on carbon and other forms of
energy taxes as means for limiting carbon dioxide
emissions.
24. In Sweden marginal cost for further reduction of carbon
dioxide emissions is high, compared to most OECD countries. As part
of our national programme we have taken initiatives in the Baltic
countries and Eastern Europe in order to finance measures in the
field of renewable energy, energy management and certain supportive
measures. The possibilities for joint implementation or similar
policy measures are of great importance for Sweden.
Actions Taken in the Energy and Transportation
Sectors
25. As from January 1991 a carbon dioxide tax is levied on fossil
fuels. The introduction of the carbon dioxide tax coincided with a
major tax reform with the aim to reduce taxes on income and capital
and to increase environmental taxes. Value Added Tax (VAT) was from
that date applied to all forms of energy (fuels, heat, electricity).
The carbon dioxide tax was initially set at the level of SEK 250 per
tonne carbon dioxide released. The existing rates of energy taxes
were at the same time reduced by 50 per cent.
26. The carbon dioxide tax and the energy taxes work as excise
duties levied on fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas and liquified
petroleum gas) except fuels for electricity generation. The tax in
SEK per unit of energy is calculated on the basis of the average
carbon content of the fuels.
27. In 1993 the energy and the carbon dioxide taxation was changed
in order to adjust the Swedish tax rates on sectors subject to
international competition to those applied in other similar
countries. The general carbon tax rate increased from SEK 250 to 320
per tonne of carbon dioxide. A lower tax rate of 80 SEK/tonne was
introduced for manufacturing industry. At the same time energy taxes
were abolished for manufacturing industry.
28. Up to 1993 an exemption system existed for mainly energy
intensive industry providing possibilities for single enterprises to
apply for tax reductions. This regulation implied that companies
energy taxes were limited to a certain per cent of the value of the
goods produced. A similar system, which is applied to a minor number
of enterprises, is still in force until the end of 1995. From January
1996 all branches of the manufacturing industry will be subject to
uniform carbon dioxide taxation.
29. The first of January 1994, energy and carbon taxes were
increased by 4 per cent (adjusted for inflation).
30. In order to promote and stimulate the introduction of
renewable energy sources and energy efficiency the Riksdag has
decided on several programmes. These programmes include the programme
for energy management and promotion of bio-fuels, wind power and
solar energy. The National Board for Industrial and Technical
Development (NUTEK) has the responsibilities for these programmes.
The programmes started in 1991.
31. In order to limit emissions from the transport sector we have
up till now introduced mainly two measures, higher taxation on fuels
and research and development. During the last four years two broad
R&D-programmes have been initiated, concerning the use of
alternative fuels and hybrid and electrical vehicles.
Action Taken in the Forestry and Agriculture
Sectors
32. Many actions that have been taken in the forestry sector since
1990 affect the carbon balance. Various measures are taken to reduce
carbon releases from the soils, e.g. through restrictions on forest
site preparation operations and drainage.
33. A new agricultural policy was adopted by the Riksdag in 1990. Some of the policies indirectly affect climate change. In general, these measures will lead to reduced emissions of greenhouse gases. These include reduced and better nitrogen application practices, replacements from arable land to grazing grounds or forests, and increased use of winter overgrown land. However, methane emissions are expected to increase due to changes in land use patterns.
Projections and Effects of Measures
Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions until
2005
34. The projections of the carbon dioxide emissions are based on
assumption of Swedish future energy demand and supply. Basic economic
forecast is given in Appendix 2. The figure shows the key
assumptions.
35. The total energy demand is expected to grow by 0,9 per cent
per year during the years 1993-2005 compared to the expected
GDP-growth of 1,8 per cent per year. There is consequently a
considerable improvement in energy efficiency during the period. The
analyses show that there are rather large uncertainties in the fuel
demand for electricity production, the assessment of energy
efficiency and fuel used in the transport sector. Increasing demand
for electricity can raise emission of carbon dioxide up to four
million tonnes per year depending on fuel used and amount of
electricity imported from neighbouring countries. We have assumed
that further power demand comes from natural gas combi
cycles.
36. Other projections about emissions from the transport sector
predict a higher penetration of new technologies that lead to less
fuel consumption. The sensitivity analysis show that influence of
world oil price on carbon dioxide emissions is small. The most
important factor with the respect of carbon dioxide emissions is the
growth of the economy.
37. It is important to stress that emission levels for 1990 are
based on actual emissions, not adjusted for temperature variation.
This is however the case for the projected years 1995 - 2005. If this
would be done for a climatic normal year, emissions in 1990 would
have been at the same level as for the year 2000 - i.e 64 million
tonnes. The projections show that carbon dioxide emissions will grow
somewhat until the year 2005 (Table 3). The decline from 1990
adjusted level in 1995, could mainly be attributed to industry
production level.
38. Methane and nitrous oxides emissions are expected to decrease 10% until the year 2000 from 1990 levels, while HFC's emissions are expected to increase. Forest growth is expected to increase in forthcoming years. Timber lodging is the greatest factor determining total net removal by sinks. Thus, industry demand is crucial for the forecast but also difficult to predict. Estimations done show an increasing demand of timber for the industry. The increase in forest growth cannot compensate the increase in timber consumption. Net removals of carbon dioxide by sinks will therefore decrease from 1990 levels. However, forest carbon reservoir is expected to increase.
Effects of the Measures Taken
39. The effects of the action taken to combat climate change is
difficult to estimate. This is specially true for the programmes for
research and development and the programmes for energy efficiency.
Effects of these programmes can only be fully evaluated in the long
term.
40. Estimations have been made using different methods. Analysis
of the effects of taxation on fossil fuels, the investment-programmes
and the programme for more efficient use of energy were made
separately.
41. In addition, an energy-model called MARKAL was used to
estimate the overall effects of the climate change programme on the
energy supply-side. The model optimizes the energy supply - given
different available technologies - at lowest possible cost. However,
the model cannot predict the relationship between energy-demand and
energy-prices.
42. Higher prices on gasoline will lead to less traffic and a shift to more efficient cars i.e limited fuel demand. The study shows that emissions from the transport sector would have been two million tonnes higher without changes in tax rates. The programme for energy efficiency
will decrease electricity consumption. Electricity savings due to
the efficiency programme are estimated to 8 TWh, compared to the
present consumption of 145 TWh up to year 2000.
43. The MARKAL-model compared the energy taxation at the beginning
of 1990 with present energy taxes and subsidies for bio-fuels,
windpower and solar heating. The result shows
that the 1994 measures reduce emissions of carbon dioxide at the
year 2000 with about five million tonnes. In the future increased
demand for electricity will make the differences larger.
44. In total we estimate that the effects of the measures taken
decrease the carbon dioxide in the year 2000 with about 10 million
tonnes i.e 16% reduction from projected levels.
Finance and Technology
45. The Swedish government contributed SEK 196.07 million to the
pilot phase programme of the GEF for the three years up to July 1994.
For the first period of the permanent phase ending in June 1997,
Sweden will contribute SEK 450.04 million. The contribution to the
core fund can not be directed to a specific focal area but will cover
projects in all four windows.
46. The Swedish Government has so far allocated SEK 227 million to
be used for activities aiming at an environmentally adapted
energy-system in the Baltic states and Eastern Europe in particular
measures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
47. The overall goal is to promote cost-effective activities that
have a sustainable influence on the emissions of carbon dioxide. Such
activities may also simultaneously reduce acidifying substances. The
programme will primarily target the Baltic rim area and areas where
there exists established Swedish contacts in the energy sector have
been established earlier.
48. Financial resources will be used for capacity building and
direct investments in conversion to renewable fuels and in equipment
for improvement of energy efficiency. Now, about 30 projects have
been initiated.
49. The Swedish Government does also support programmes in
developing countries trying to meet their commitments under the
Convention One example is the project Climate and Africa. The
Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) has got the assignment to
support participation of countries in Africa in the global climate
debate. African experts will carry out the major part of the work.
The budget for the project is SEK million.
Research, Education and Public
Awareness
50. The Swedish Government has set up a special committee to
promote and coordinate research in the field of climate change (The
Swedish Committee on Climate Change). Sweden has supported the IPCC
assessments through the chairmanship of professor Bert Bolin. Sweden
also supports contribution by other scientists in the different IPCC
working groups. Swedish research on global change is coordinated in
the international programmes - International Geosphere-biosphere
Programme (IGBP) and World Climate Research Programme
(WCRP).
51. The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency is financing research on the impacts of climate change on Nordic ecosystems. The programme is mainly focusing on the following areas;
- Emissions and removals of greenhouse gases
- Effects of global climate change on Nordic
ecosystems
52. Technical research in climate change is mostly dealing with
different measures. The Energy Research Programme and the
Transportation research Programme concentrate on renewable energy
sources. A large part of the programme concerns different measures to
enhance energy efficiency. The transportation programme also involves
demonstration a programme on alternative fuels and electric
vehicles.
53. Information activities are conducted in connection with the
different R&D programmes addressing public awareness. The
National Environment Protection Agency has the responsibility for a
special information campaign.
Future Work
54. The long term climate policy must, according to the decision
by the Riksdag in 1993, be based on a firm scientific basis, be
comprehensive and cover all sectors in the society. Through the
complexity of the climate change problem and the near association to
central economic and political questions, international cooperation
in this field is essential.
55. The Riksdag has requested the Government to propose new
targets for carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases after the year
2000. The Riksdag has also asked the Government to review the energy
tax-system. The purpose is to establish energy taxes that in the long
term and clearly promote an efficient and environmental friendly
energy use and production.
56. Several committees have been established to elaborate new
measures to combat climate change.
57. A shift in taxation from private enterprises, labour and
savings to a taxation of limited resources could be beneficial to the
environment. A parliamentary committee will be looking into these
issues.
58. Another parliamentary committee is focusing on the energy
sector. The energy policy is based upon a parliamentary agreement
from 1991. The aim of the measures decided upon is to secure the long
and short term energy supply on economically competitive terms and on
environmentally sustainable conditions. The committee shall review
ongoing energy programmes and estimate the demand for changes. The
committee will also follow the work with reformation of the
electricity market. The committee shall after its analyze is
completed, propose measures to secure an efficient electricity
supply. The commission shall also propose a scheduled programme on
how to transform the energy system. The deliberation within the
committee shall be done against, among other things, the need to
limit climate change at a level that can be sustainable for the
society and for ecosystems. The measures proposed should be cost
effective.
59. A third committee is concerned with the transportation system.
It will analyze economic instruments in order to promote more fuel
efficient cars and alternatives to petroleum based fuels. It will
also propose measures to promote public transport systems and
consider the importance of physical planning.
60. Another important area is individual and private sector work
in the context of climate change. How to strengthen these sectors
will be addressed in conjunction with local follow-up of Agenda 21
and the decisions made during UNCED.
Table 1. Summary Report for 1990 National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories (1000 tonnes).
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES |
CO2(1) |
CH4 |
N2O |
NOX |
CO |
NMVOC | ||
TOTAL National Anthropogenic Emission |
61256 |
329 |
15.2 |
373 |
1612 |
540 | ||
1 All Energy (Fuel Combustion + Fugitive) |
55175 |
32.9 |
4.6 |
362 |
1606 |
375 | ||
|
A Fuel Combustion |
55122 |
32.9 |
4.6 |
362 |
1606 |
357 | |
|
|
Energy and Transformation Industries |
7041 |
1.25 |
1.42 |
19.58 |
7.83 |
3.54 |
|
|
Transport(2) |
23092 |
17 |
0.4 |
285 |
1503 |
201 |
|
|
Industries (ISIC) |
13446 |
4.2 |
2.1 |
38.9 |
25.7 |
10.8 |
|
|
Commercial/Institutional |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Residential | ||||||
|
|
Agricultural/Forestry | ||||||
|
|
Other | ||||||
|
|
Biomass Burned for Energy |
21737(3) |
14.6(4) |
1.34 |
194 |
844 |
1534 |
|
B Fugitive Fuel Emission |
53 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
17.8 | |
|
|
Oil and Natural Gas Systems |
53 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17.8 |
|
|
Coal Mining |
NO |
NO |
NO |
NO |
NO |
NO |
2 Industrial Processes |
4972 |
NE |
2.7 |
11 |
5.9 |
67 | ||
|
A Iron and Steel |
1561 |
NE |
0 |
1 |
2.2 |
2.2 | |
|
B Non-Ferrous Metals |
720 |
NE |
0 |
1.3 |
0 |
NE | |
|
C Inorganic Chemicals |
NE |
NE |
2.6 |
1.6 |
NE |
0 | |
|
D Organic Chemicals |
16 |
0 |
NE |
NE |
NE |
5.3 | |
|
E Non-Metallic Minerals Products |
2493 |
NE |
0 |
7.2 |
0.16 |
0 | |
|
F Other |
182 |
NE |
0.1 |
0 |
3.5 |
59 | |
3 Solvent and Other Product Use |
294 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
98 | ||
|
A Paint Application |
120 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
40 | |
|
B Degreasing and Dry Cleaning |
45 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
15 | |
|
C Chemical Products Manufacture/Processing |
21 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
7 | |
|
D Other |
108 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
36 | |
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES (continued) |
CO2 |
CH4 |
N2O |
NOX |
CO |
NMVOC | ||
4 Agriculture |
540 |
196 |
7.9 |
- |
- |
- | ||
|
A Enteric Fermentation |
518 |
188 |
- |
- |
- |
- | |
|
B Agricultural Wastes |
22 |
8 |
- |
- |
- |
- | |
|
C Agriculture Soils |
- |
- |
7.9 |
- |
- |
- | |
|
D Rice Cultivation |
- |
NO |
- |
- |
- |
- | |
|
E Agriculture Waste Burning |
NO |
NO |
NO |
NO |
NO |
NO | |
|
F Savannah Burning |
NO |
NO |
NO |
NO |
NO |
NO | |
5 Land Use Change & Forestry |
- 34368 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- | ||
|
A Forest clearing and On Site Burning of Cleared Forests |
NO |
NO |
NO |
NO |
NO |
NO | |
|
B Grassland Conversion |
NO |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- | |
|
C Abandonment of Managed Lands |
NO |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- | |
|
D Managed Forests |
- 34638 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- | |
6 Waste |
275 |
100 |
- |
- |
- |
- | ||
|
A Landfills |
275 |
100 |
- |
- |
- |
- | |
|
B Wastewater |
NE |
NE |
- |
- |
- |
- | |
|
C Other |
NO |
NO |
NO |
NO |
NO |
NO | |
TOTAL NET National Emission (sum 1 through 6) |
26888 |
329 |
15.2 |
373 |
1612 |
540 | ||
Emissions from international aviation and marine bunker fuels |
4190 |
1.3 |
0.04 |
60 |
44 |
15 |
NE=not estimated NO=not occurring -not applicable
Table 2. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Removals 1990 - 2005
(million tonnes)
Source |
1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
Energy and Transformation Industries |
7,0 |
9,2 |
10,9 |
13,7 |
Transportation |
23,1 |
24,0 |
25,3 |
26,7 |
Industry |
13,5 |
12,6 |
13,1 |
13,7 |
Residential, Commercial |
11,5 |
9,5 |
8,4 |
7,7 |
Industrial processes and others |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
Other sources |
|
1,2 |
1,1 |
1,1 |
TOTAL |
|
61,5 |
63,8 |
67,9 |
Net removal of carbon dioxide by sinks |
|
-31 |
-29 |
-28 |
Forerst carbon reservoir |
|
2846 |
2996 |
3139 |
1. 1Total CO2 according to IPCC methodology. Includes emitted CO2 and oxidized carbon.
2. 2Emissions from international aviation and marine bunker fuels not included.
3. 3Not included in Total National Anthropogenic Emissions.
4. 4Included in the Total National Anthropogenic Emissions, but also under the different sub-categories under Fuel Combustion.