Distr.
GENERAL
A/AC.237/NC/3
4 November 1994
Original: ENGLISH
INTERGOVERNMENTAL NEGOTIATING COMMITTEE
FOR A FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
In accordance with decision 9/2 of the Committee, the interim
secretariat is to make available, in the official languages of the
United Nations, the executive summaries of the national
communications submitted by Annex I Parties.
GE.94-
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Basic data
1. In 1990 the population of Denmark amounted to 5.2 million
inhabitants and with a total area of 43.000 km2 the
population density corresponds to approximately 120
inhabitants/km2. Only a very slight increase in the
population is envisaged.
2. Denmark is situated at about 55 Northern latitude and about 10
Eastern longitude. Due to the continental landmass and the warm Gulf
stream, the temperature in Denmark is, especially during the winter,
relatively high. The weather can in general terms be described as
temperate west coast climate with mild winters and cool summers. The
average temperature is 8C and the ground surface receives yearly
between 500 and 900 mm of precipitation.
3. Two thirds or 64%, of the area is cultivated agricultural land,
approximately 15% is classified as built-up areas and forests account
for 10%. Natural areas like moorland, marshland and lakes make up the
remaining 10%. The dominating agricultural crop, grain, covers
approximately 15,000 km2 of the Danish
landscape.
4. The service sector, market and Government contribute
approximately 70% of the Gross National Product - amounting to US$
129,000 billion in 1990 or US$ 25,000 per capita. In 1990 the GNP
increased by 63% compared with 1970.
5. Primary energy consumption increased rapidly in the 1960s but
has essentially been stabilized at a level of 750 PJ from 1972 to
1992 as a result of the saturation effect, the two oil crises and the
implementation of rigorous energy political instruments during the
last 15 years.
6. Oil was replaced by coal, especially for power production and
the oil consumption was reduced significantly due to energy savings
and changes in consumption and supply system, e.g. introduction of
combined heat and power.
7. In 1990 the distribution on energy sources of the total primary
energy consumption of 768 PJ was Coal: 41%, Natural Gas:11%, Oil
products: 41% and Renewable: 7%.
8. Energy taxes have been implemented on fossil fuels and
electricity, especially in the household sector, and the ensuing
energy savings in this sector is a strong indication of the
efficiency of high energy prices as an instrument to lower the energy
consumption.
9. After a recent energy taxation reform, a rather elaborate
system of taxes has been replaced by a combined energy and
CO2-tax, with a level for private households of US$ 16 per
tonne of CO2, or approximately US$ 6 per GJ. Industry and
service only pay CO2 tax at a level which is half of the
tax for households. Renewable energy is not taxed.
10. The number of passenger cars has increased by 48% in the
period 1970 to 1990, and accordingly the road transport for cars
shows a growth rate of 73% from 29.8 billion person-km to 51.5
billion person-km. The transport of goods shows also a slightly
lesser increase of 30% for the period from 8.2 billion transport-km
to 10.7 billion transport-km.
11. According to traffic prognoses the authorities envisage an
increase by the year 2010 of 40% and 60% for passenger and goods
transport respectively compared with 1990.
Emissions and uptake
12. The basis of the calculation of emissions of greenhouse gases
from the energy sector is primary energy consumption and emission
factors. For the other sectors activity data and estimated national
emission factors are used. The tables are produced in accordance with
the latest version of the IPCC manual for emission inventories, and
the figures are aggregated in categories consistent with the
manual.
Carbon Dioxide
13. Since the Second World War the development in the emission of
CO2 is showing a very significant trend. In the period
from 1945 to 1960 with a rather slow economic development the
emission increased from 12 million tonnes to 26 million tonnes, or
approximately 1 million tonnes per year. From 1960 to 1972, a period
with full steam on the economy, the emission was growing from 26
million tonnes to 62 million tonnes corresponding to a growth rate of
3 million tonnes per year.
14. After the so called energy crisis in 1973 and up to present
the emission of CO2 has due to an active energy management
been levelling around 60 million tonnes despite a constant economic
development. In the same period the GNP increased by approximately
60%. The variation from year to year is mainly caused by
import/export of electricity from the two other Scandinavian
countries.
15. The main sources for CO2 emissions are power plants
and transport, with a share of 50% and 20% respectively.
16. The Danish Parliament has decided that during a period of
rotation, e.g. 80 - 100 years, the forest area should be doubled.
This decision implies an afforestation rate of about 40
km2/year, corresponding - at its highest level - to a
CO2 fixation rate of approximately 1 million tonnes C per
year or 5% of the yearly CO2-emission.
17. Since no common international agreement has been reached on
the methodology on determination of the CO2-uptake in
afforestation programmes the uptake has not been included in the
Danish emission inventory but is listed separately.
Methane
18. The yearly anthropogenic emission of methane amounts to about
406,000 tonnes and has not changed through the last decade. Most
important is the agricultural sector - enteric
fermentation and animal waste - with 262,000 tonnes corresponding
to 65%. Second are emissions from landfills with 120,000 tonnes
(30%).
Nitrous oxide
19. The sources to the anthropogenic emission of nitrous oxide are
almost completely dominated by the agricultural sector, which
accounts for more than 75% of a yearly emission of 11,000 tonnes. The
emission rate depends on a complex array of factors like soil
structure, pH, temperature, type of crop, water saturation and
nitrogen fertilizer. The models for determining the emission are very
simplified and their results are encumbered with great
uncertainty.
Other GHG
20. The emission of two of three precursors for ozone -
NOx and NMVOC - is regulated within the Geneva-Convention,
and for 1990 the emission was estimated at 293 ktonnes and 165
ktonnes respectively. The emission of the third precursor, CO,
amounted to 771 ktonnes in 1990.
21. With the aim of phasing out the use of CFC's as fast as
possible - at an even faster rate than prescribed by the
Montreal-Protocol - the Danish environmental authorities accept HFC's
to be used to replace CFC's in some areas. The areas in question are
primarily the production of some types of refrigerators and freezers
where the assessment of risks and the regulation by the authorities
is excluding the use of other substances. In 1990 the use of HFC's
was marginal but it has increased to approximately 300 tonnes in
1993.
Vulnerability
22. With a global reduction of the emission of greenhouse gases
the development can be slowed down and possibly a new climate
equilibrium can be obtained, but it is hardly probable that climate
changes can be totally avoided. Without a global effort the climate
may change further, but evaluations beyond a century are at present
considered almost worthless.
23. It is possible to foresee a series of impacts of climate
changes, but it is difficult to estimate their magnitude; sometimes,
it may even be impossible to indicate whether they are an advantage
or a drawback.
24. If the human influence on the atmosphere proceeds unchanged it
may result in climate changes, for Denmark comprising a temperature
rise, which by the end of the next century will be about 3C as a
yearly average. It is envisaged that the increase of summer
temperature will be a little smaller than the winter temperature,
1-3C and 2-5C respectively. At the same time precipitation may
increase by up to 10% and the relative sea level rise between 30 and
50 cm.
25. However, it must be assumed that generally the immediate
consequences for Denmark in inter alia the agricultural sector, and
the management of forests and coast protection within the next
century only will be so modest that they can be managed through
planned adjustment supported by an expected technological
development.
26. A possible exception is the present natural ecosystem where
climate changes may be too rapid for some animal and plant species;
this may cause temporary instability and in the long run change the
composition of species.
27. Denmark is however - ecologically as well as politically and
economically - a small open system. The importance of climate changes
and sea level rise for the development in the rest of the world may
therefore most likely be decisive. The change of climate and the rise
of sea level could lead to global economic and political
instability.
National programmes
28. Danish policies regarding limitation of climate relevant
gases, are rooted in many years of active national policies on energy
and environment.
29. The first national energy plan of 1976 together with further
development of the policies during the 1980s resulted in a major
restructuring of the energy system in Denmark
30. As a result, the total primary energy consumption has
essentially been stabilized, despite substantial growth in all
economic sectors. In parallel, the environmental impact from the use
of energy has been substantially reduced in the same period, as a
direct result of the changes in the energy system, as well as
introduction of emission standards, emission quotas and other
regulations.
31. In the late 1980s, focus was gradually shifted from
considerations of security of supply, minimization of energy service
costs, and local environmental effects, to wider environmental
considerations, notably the goal of achieving long term sustainable
developments, on a national as well as on a global level. In 1988,
the Danish Government presented its plan of action on environment and
development, as a follow up of the recommendations set out in the
report from the World Commission on Environment and Development, the
Brundtland Report.
32. In 1990 two action plans, relating to energy and transport,
were presented to the Parliament. In these plans, limitations of
greenhouse gas emissions, notably carbon dioxide, were introduced as
explicit targets.
33. In 1992 the objectives of the Danish waste policy were
described in the Danish Government's Action Plan for Waste and
Recycling 1993-97. Among the objectives of the plan was minimization
of deposition of organic material in landfills and energy saving
through recycling. A consequence of the plan will be a reduction of
the emission of methane from landfill sites.
34. In the Energy Action Plan, the Government listed a number of
new initiatives to be implemented, with the expected result of
achieving a reduction in CO2 emissions of 28% in 2005
compared to 1988 levels, for the whole energy sector excluding
transport. The Plan was dealt with in the Parliament and there was
broad political backing for it.
35. Strategically speaking, the action plan emphasized efficiency
improvements in end use, especially in the use of electricity, and
increased efficiency of the energy supply systems, notably increased
use of combined heat and power, as the most important areas of
intervention.
36. The transport action plan, adopted in May 1990 by the
Government, had as targets for the CO2 emissions of the
sector, to achieve a stabilization in 2005, and to achieve a 25%
reduction by 2030 compared to 1988.
37. The combined effects of the two action plans were foreseen to
be more than a 20% reduction in 2005, compared to the base year of
the plans (1988). This target was subsequently approved by the
Parliament.
38. Apart from this national CO2 reduction target
Denmark has committed itself to stabilize emissions at the 1990 level
in 2000 within the framework of the Climate Convention, as well as to
achieve a 5% reduction in 2000 compared to 1990, as a contribution to
the overall stabilization by the year 2000 for the countries of the
European Union (EU).
39. In 1993, the present Government has undertaken a major
follow-up of the two action plans, in order to guarantee the
achievement of the above targets.
40. In the recent action plan (Follow up on Energy 2000) a revised
base scenario for the development of demand and supply, for the
energy sector exclusive of transport, has been set up. This base
scenario describes the expected development resulting from all
measures which will be implemented as a result of implemented
policies in place.
41. The analysis shows that the national CO2 reduction
targets would not be met in the base scenario, but fall short by
several million t CO2 in relation to the reduction target
of 20% in year 2005.
42. In order to bridge this gap, the Government has launched a
packet of initiatives in its action plan "Follow up on Energy 2000",
which was published in November 1993.
43. The initiatives are to be implemented through legislation,
administrative decisions or negotiations. The content of the packet
is a result of extensive screening of a large number of potential
options, based on economic and political considerations, and has been
thoroughly politically negotiated, to ascertain the necessary
parliamentary majority where this is needed.
44. Further more, it is the intention of the Government to
increase the use of "green taxes" (taxes on energy, CO2,
water, waste etc.) in all sectors of the economy.
45. As a logical extension of this, Denmark is actively working
for the introduction of a combined energy and CO2 tax
within the EU, as well as Community standards for electrical
appliances.
46. With the plan in place, a CO2-reduction of about
23% compared to 1988 levels can be achieved for the energy sector
excluding transport. This corresponds to about 18% of the total
CO2 from energy and transport. Hence additional measures
are needed to reach a 20% reduction.
47. In the year 2000, however, the expected reduction will be
sufficient to guarantee the fulfilment of a 5% reduction in relation
to 1990.
48. The Danish Government intends to review the results of the
current plan as well as future initiatives and developments on the
international scene on a periodic basis, next time in 1995. Present
plans foresee that this revision should include a renewed analysis of
the long term options, to update the analysis of the Energy 2000
Plan.
49. The main aim of sustainable transport policy is to promote an
efficient transport system for the benefit of the general public and
industry, to ensure that the damaging effects of traffic, e.g.
pollution and accidents, can be reduced to a minimum in accordance
with specified objectives.
50. The target for CO2 emissions in the transport
sector should be seen in relation to the considerable importance
attached to helping to solve local environmental problems, which to
some extent entails measures which can actually increase
CO2 emissions, e.g. replacing diesel by
petrol.
51. The main objectives in the field of waste and recycling are to
reduce the quantity of waste arisings, to minimize the environmental
impact of waste disposal, and to make use of the resources contained
in waste.
52. Today total waste arisings amount to about 10 million tonnes
per annum. The objective is that about 50% of the total amount of
wastes generated in the year 2000 should be recycled. The remainder
should primarily be incinerated and landfilling should be minimized.
One of the expected effects of the Plan is a reduction of methane
emissions from landfilling.
53. The aim is to incinerate all combustible wastes which is not
to be recycled, and which does not present particular incineration
problems. By incinerating the energy content in the waste will be
used to replace fossil fuels.
54. In connection with incineration, the energy content of
non-recyclable wastes should be used effectively like other biofuels,
since most of the waste is CO2-neutral and therefore
causes lower CO2 emissions than burning of fossil
fuels.
R & D and systematic
observations
55. Denmark contributes actively to international climate research
programmes including the World Climate Programme. A main area is the
numerical models of the atmosphere. Efforts are directed towards
harmonization of the models for weather and climate calculations in
order to achieve a uniform model for all problems with a view to
enhancing the exploitation of new results of research.
56. The work on climate models includes the study of selected
physical processes on the climate and studying the extra-tropical
northern hemisphere climate variability. Another important project is
the development of a regional model using a high resolution model
nested into the global climate model in order to assess regional
climate changes caused by an increased greenhouse
effect.
57. Climate observations from several Danish stations back to 1872
are available on electronic media, while sea level data are available
back to 1890, and sea temperatures back to 1930. A series of data
from lighthouses and ships log books from 1675 to 1715 is also
included in the data base.
58. The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) has been selected as
a focal point for a Nordic climate modelling research effort and is
collaborating with 11 other European institutes within the European
Climate Support Network (ECSN) to promote more effective
collaboration in the field of climate monitoring research and
prediction. DMI also contributes to climate monitoring within the
WMO-coordinated observation programmes (World Weather Watch and World
Climate Data Programme).
59. Danish research institutes are heavily involved in the special
area of climate research on palaeo-climate, and Denmark has
contributed significantly to the European deep drilling project -
GRIP - on the summit of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Analyses of the GRIP
ice core reveal that climate in Greenland during the last
interglacial period was characterized be a series of several cold
periods, which began extremely rapidly and lasted for decades to
centuries.
International cooperation
60. As a consequence of the global nature of environmental
problems Denmark has over the past years intensified action at
international level in order to meet the global
challenges.
61. The climate problem is to be seen in the context of a broader
global challenge. Growing numbers of people have been using up the
Earth's store of natural resources. Curbing these trends will require
a coordinated international strategy.
62. The awareness of this global challenge and the transboundary
nature of the environmental problems were translated into the Danish
Government's action plan for sustainable development of 1988, and as
a consequence environmental strategies in several sectors have been
developed. Plans and strategies will naturally be adjusted in light
of the results of UNCED, particularly the Convention on Climate
Change, in order to honour the specific obligations.
63. To follow up on UNCED the Danish Government has decided to
establish an international environment and emergency fund, the Danish
Cooperation for Environmental and Development (DANCED), with the
objective of strengthening efforts towards global environmental
problems.
64. The United Nations target of 0.7 per cent of GNP in ODA has
been reached for many years and the Danish ODA amounts to 1 per cent
of GNP by the end of 1993.
65. Denmark wants the GEF to be the financial mechanism for the
Convention on Climate Change on a permanent basis, on the condition
that GEF is properly restructured.
66. Denmark would have liked to see a threefold increase of the
GEF. A replenishment of US$ 2 billion is not sufficient. Denmark will
contribute its fair share of GEF 2, but will in addition to that
enter into cofinancing arrangements with the implementing
agencies.
67. Denmark has since the beginning of the negotiation process
contributed to the INC/FCCC special voluntary fund for the
participation of developing countries and has been one of the major
donor countries to activities in relation to the Convention on
Climate Change.
68. Denmark has likewise supported activities in relation to the
IPCC Trust Fund.
69. The new strategy under DANCED extends the possibilities of Danish assistance both in general terms to address the comprehensive approach under the Convention, and more specifically to fund country studies pursuant to Article 12 of the Convention.