Distr.
RESTRICTED
FCCC/IDR.1/EST
14 May 1997
ENGLISH ONLY
ESTONIA
Report of the in-depth review of the national
communication of Estonia
Review team:
Patricia Ramirez, Costa Rica
Seppo Oikarinen, Finland
Edward Radwansky, Poland
Fiona Mullins, OECD secretariat
Mukul Sanwal, UNFCCC secretariat, Coordinator
Also available on the World Wide Web
(http://www.unfccc.de)
GE.97-
Under Articles 4 and 12 of the Convention. Parties are requested
to prepare national communications on their implementation of the
Convention. Guidelines for the preparation of national communications
and the process for the review were agreed on by the
Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on
Climate Change, by its decisions 9/2 and 10/1, and 3/CP.1 (see
FCCC/CP/1995/7/Add.1) In accordance with these decisions, a
compilation and synthesis of the 33 national communications from
Annex I Parties was prepared (FCCC/CP/12 and Add.1 and 2).
When reviewing the implementation of the Convention of the
Parties, the subsidiary bodies and the Conference of the Parties will
have this report available to them in English as well as the summary
of the report in the six official languages of the United Nations.
(These bodies will also have before them the executive summary of the
first national communication of Finland and country-specific
information drawn from a compilation and synthesis report covering
all countries that have submitted national communications.)
Summary(1)
1. The in-depth review was carried out between April and
August 1996, and included a visit by the team to Tallinn, from 16 to
17 May 1996. The team included experts from Costa Rica, Finland,
Poland and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD).
2. In its first national communication Estonia did not
fully comply with the approved reporting guidelines for national
communications. However, a significant amount of additional
supporting material on Estonia's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
inventory, policies and measures, and projections of emissions was
provided to the review team during the country visit. This additional
documentation shows that Estonia now has much of the information
requested in the reporting guidelines, and is continuing to work
towards improvement of the information provided in the communication.
In preparing its national GHG inventory, Estonia has followed, as far
as possible, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (1994) and has
initiated work, with the assistance of the United States Country
Studies Program, to develop data using the IPCC standard tables and
worksheets.
3. In its national communication, Estonia provided
information on objectives and strategies for policies and measures
which will eventually help to reduce GHG emissions and enhance sinks.
Owing to its transitional circumstances, Estonia had not implemented
policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance
sinks at the time the national communication was submitted, and did
not present a projection of emissions. The review team was given
information on carbon dioxide (CO2) emission scenarios
that have been subsequently developed by Tallinn Technical
University; the model is not disaggregated by sector. No information
was included in the national communication on research, education,
training and public awareness. During the review, the team was
informed that since the national communication had been submitted, a
vulnerability study of the country had been prepared according to
which climate change is expected to increase food production and
reduce consumption of energy for heating.
4. Emissions of GHG in 1990 were estimated at 46,479 Gg
using IPCC 1994 global warming potential values (GWP), with
CO2 amounting to 37,797 Gg, methane (CH4) 323
Gg and nitrous oxide (N2O) 2.4 Gg. CO2 removals
by sinks were estimated separately, as required by the guidelines, at
8,555 Gg per year. Calculations by the review team showed that in
terms of GWP carbon dioxide accounted for 81 per cent of GHG
emissions, methane for 17 per cent and nitrous oxide for 2 per cent.
For CO2, the largest emission source is fuel combustion,
contributing 98 per cent of the total, within which energy and
transformation contributed 75 per cent, industry and transport 7 per
cent each and cement production 2 per cent. For CH4
emissions, underground and surface oil-shale mining and operations in
oil and natural gas distribution systems account for 67 per cent of
total emissions, with agriculture contributing 19 per cent from
enteric fermentation and animal waste and the waste sector about 13
per cent. Estimates of N2O emissions are highly uncertain,
with fuel combustion as the major source. The inventory data
presented in the communication also estimate emissions of
CO2 and CH4 from wetland drainage at 9,750 Gg,
while CO2 emissions from forests and land-use change
amounted to about 3,400 Gg.
5. Estonia has not set any specific national target
relating to emissions and removals of GHGs. Estonia expects to record
a 40-50 per cent reduction of CO2 emissions by the year
2000 compared to 1990 levels, primarily through the ongoing process
of economic restructuring and removal of energy subsidies. The
gradual increase of domestic energy prices towards world levels and
privatization of industry led to a decline in the energy-intensive
industrial sector of 40 per cent between 1990 and 1994. It is
recognized that there is considerable potential for improving
efficiency in the generation of heat and for conserving energy in
residential buildings. Estonia has introduced measures for efficiency
in energy production and conservation, and additional measures are
planned. The number of road vehicles is expected to continue to
increase as incomes rise, but the effect of this increase on
greenhouse gas emissions could be partly offset by the improved fuel
efficiency of new vehicles.
6. Estonias per capita energy consumption is now at levels
similar to those of neighbouring OECD member countries but pollution
levels, and the energy and carbon intensity of the Estonian economy,
remain higher than in European OECD countries by a factor of two for
energy intensity, and a factor of four for carbon
dioxide.
7. Estonia's energy balance and greenhouse gas emissions
are dominated by oil-shale, which accounts for about 95 per cent of
electricity generation, one quarter of the heat requirements, three
quarters of total energy-related CO2 emissions, and two
thirds of methane emissions. Oil-shale reserves are expected to last
for the next 30 years. Studies are under way to seek ways of
improving the efficiency of oil-shale electricity generation and less
carbon-intensive alternatives.
8. Estonia has made institutional arrangements to carry
out energy planning and management, which will serve to attenuate
longer-term trends in GHG emissions. The scientific community and
non-governmental organizations play an important part in undertaking
studies and influencing environmental policy and attitudes towards
sustainable development. Estonia has a commitment to reduce
transboundary pollution, which will also affect emissions of
greenhouse gases, and is promoting energy efficiency. Estonia has a
strong tradition of forest management and conservation. Forests cover
almost half the land area and the sink capacity is likely to increase
despite a greater expected reliance on
wood-based products and resources.
9. The review team noted that the transition from a
centrally planned to a market economy has required basic changes in
legislative, administrative and fiscal arrangements, as well as
dramatic changes in most economic sectors, making it difficult to
implement policies and measures and to assess their effects. The
statistics system has undergone major modifications, which has made
it particularly difficult to prepare the inventory and projections of
greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, funding constraints make
important measures, such as those to improve the efficiency of energy
production and use, difficult to implement. It was noted that the
Government of Estonia is reviewing the data reported in the national
communication and intends to include additional information on
policies and measures and projections of emissions in its next
communication.
I. INTRODUCTION AND NATIONAL
CIRCUMSTANCES
10. Estonia ratified the Convention on 27 July 1994. Its
national communication was received by the secretariat on 6 May
1995.
11. The in-depth review of the national communication was
carried out between April and August 1996 and included a visit by a
review team to Tallinn from 16 to 17 May 1996. The team included Ms.
Patricia Ramirez (Costa Rica), Mr. Seppo Oikarinen (Finland), Mr.
Edward Radwansky (Poland), Ms. Fiona Mullins, (Organization for
Economic Co-operation and Development) (OECD), and Mr. Mukul Sanwal
(UNFCCC secretariat, Coordinator). In the course of the visit the
team met representatives of ministries concerned with climate change
issues and members of the scientific and academic communities, as
well as representatives of non-governmental
organizations.
12. The Republic of Estonia covers an area of 45,215 sq km
to the east of the Baltic Sea, including the two large islands of
Saarema and Hiiuma. It has a coastline of about 3,794 km,
characterized by numerous bays, straits, and islets. Estonia has a
temperate continental climate with high levels of precipitation. It
is a lowland country, with agricultural land covering 25 per cent of
the territory (half under annual or perennial hay), and wetlands
(fens, bogs, swamps) covering approximately 22 per cent of the
territory, most with peat layers more than 5 metres thick. Estonia
has a population of 1.5 million inhabitants. Over half of the
population is concentrated in five urban zones, with one third of the
urban inhabitants in Tallinn and the surrounding area. Tallinn
produces 60 per cent of Estonia's gross domestic product
(GDP).
13. Estonian forests are mixed, with conifers covering two
thirds of the forest area. Estonia has a tradition of extensive
silviculture, afforestation of agricultural land and reforestation of
drained wetlands and phosphorite and oil-shale quarries. Forests at
present account for 47 per cent of the land area. The forest area has
more than doubled in the last
50 years, and grew by 5 per cent between 1990 and
1994.
14. Estonia has the worlds largest exploited deposits of
oil-shale (3,800 million tonnes) on its northern coast. Based on
current extraction levels, the reserves are sufficient to cover
Estonias electricity and heat needs for the next 30 years. Estonia
also has large deposits of peat (560 million tonnes), limestone (300
million tonnes) and phosphorite (260 million tonnes). Mineral and
forest resources have been, and will continue to be, the basis for
the national economy. Estonia is the only country in the world with
an electric power generation system based almost exclusively on
oil-shale. Estonia is also heavily reliant on oil-shale and other
fossil fuels for residential heating. Oil-shale has a low net
calorific value and emits higher levels of carbon dioxide per unit of
energy than other fossil fuels (up to 25 per cent in flue gases), and
also has environmental disadvantages such as lowering the groundwater
level and producing large quantities of ash. With the discontinuation
of energy subsidies and the resulting increase in domestic fuel
prices and decrease in energy imports, relative dependence on
oil-shale has increased.
15. Prior to 1991 Estonia specialized in electricity
generation, producing 17 TWh in 1990, half of which was exported to
Russia and Latvia. Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) decreased
substantially between 1990 and 1994 with the fall in electricity and
heat production of about 30 per cent, and the collapse of
energy-intensive industries such as chemicals and pulp and paper
following the increase in fuel prices. The prices of imported fuels
have risen very sharply since 1991 (within 18 months, the price of
natural gas rose by more than
700 per cent, heavy fuel oil by about 450 per cent, and
gasoline and diesel oil by 150 per cent). Prices of oil-shale and
electricity are controlled by the Government at a level sufficient to
cover operating costs but not to cover normal capital investment and
maintenance. Between 1990 and 1994 the consumption of primary energy
dropped by 40 per cent, domestic electricity consumption by 30 per
cent and heat consumption by 50 per cent, and imports of fuels
declined by 60 per cent. Consequently, emissions of carbon dioxide
(CO2) dropped by 45 per cent, sulphur dioxide
(SO2) by 40 per cent and nitrogen oxides (NOx)
by 30 per cent. Energy demand, and GHG emissions, now appear to be
increasing gradually with the economic recovery.
16. Since 1990, the share of agriculture in the economy
has declined and emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous
oxide (N2O) have decreased by over 40 per cent. Most
agricultural activities have been decreasing because of the
restructuring of farm production, privatization of land, loss of
traditional markets in the former Soviet Union, and increased prices
of fuel and fertilizers. According to available statistics, between
1990 and 1995 the total land area used for agriculture decreased by
16 per cent, there was a 55 per cent reduction in the number of cows
and a 52 per cent drop in the number of pigs. Between 1990 and 1994
the use of inorganic and organic nitrogenous fertilizers decreased by
50 per cent.
17. Estonia has initiated major political and economic
reforms in its transition to a market economy. Manufacturing output
and GDP fell sharply over this period, but the growth of GDP since
1995 indicates that the economy is recovering. In particular, the
services sector is growing rapidly. Both the reduction in GDP and the
change in its composition have contributed to the reduction in
emissions of GHGs. It is likely that, if the economy continues to
recover, emissions will increase but they are not expected to exceed
the 1990 levels until at least the year 2010.
18. Privatization of small business was virtually
completed by the end of 1994. That of medium-sized and large
enterprises still has to be completed; 30 per cent of Estonias
physical output is still produced by state-owned enterprises,
including electricity, oil-shale mining, chemicals and engineering.
Most district heat boilers (which represent the largest energy
end-use in Estonia) and distribution systems are owned by municipal
governments. At present, the lack of individual apartment heating
meters makes it impossible to bill householders accurately for the
services they use.
19. Estonia has adopted a number of framework
environmental laws since 1990 that provide a basis for policies to be
implemented in the future. The new Constitution of the Republic of
Estonia, approved in 1992, states that everyone has a duty to
preserve the human and natural environment and to compensate for
damage caused to the environment. The Sustainable Development Act
(1995) specifies guiding principles and requires a national energy
programme to be drawn up in order to balance economic activities with
environmental needs. A commission on sustainable development was
established in early 1995 but its functions are yet to be defined.
The adoption of the concept of sustainable development within
Government is a major step in ensuring that environmental concerns
are integrated into economic sectors. A national environmental
strategy and a national environmental action plan are under
preparation. Estonia has signed an Association Agreement with the
European Union, and efforts are under way to develop legislation and
criteria which would correspond to those used within the European
Union.
20. The Ministry of the Environment, established in 1989,
is responsible for implementing the Framework Convention on Climate
Change. Implementation of policies, environmental monitoring, and
control also involve the regional environmental departments in 15
counties and the cities of Tallinn and Narva, the Institute of
Meteorology and Hydrology and the Environmental Information Centre.
The Ministry of the Environment has created mechanisms for
inter-ministerial cooperation through informal working groups between
ministries. The team recommends that key deliberations of these
working groups be reported in the next communication.
II. INVENTORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS AND
REMOVALS
21. The preparation of the inventory is the responsibility
of the Institute of Ecology. The review team was informed that, since
the presentation of the first national communication, Estonia has
prepared more detailed estimates of the greenhouse gas emissions in
each sector. This inventory is being prepared with the assistance of
the United States Country Studies Program and presents Estonias GHG
emissions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
standard tables and worksheets.
22. The emission inventory being prepared at the time of
the visit was drawn up using the IPCC methodology and covered all
gases included in the IPCC guidelines. The IPCC default emission
factors were used except for oil-shale, which was calculated as 29.1
tonnes of carbon per terajoule; there are no default emission factors
for oil-shale in the IPCC guidelines (oil-shale not being exploited
in any countries other than Brazil, China, Estonia, and Romania). In
the case of oil-shale oil combustion the IPCC emission factor for
residual fuel oil was applied.
23. GHG emissions in 1990 are now estimated at 46,479 Gg
of CO2 on a global warming potential (IPCC 1994) basis,
and removals of CO2 by sinks are estimated separately, as
required by the guidelines, at 8,555 Gg. Total GHG emissions by
sector were not presented in the national communication, but were
submitted to the review team during the country visit.
24. Calculations by the review team showed that carbon
dioxide accounted in 1990 for 81.3 per cent of GHG emissions, methane
for 17 per cent and N2O for 1.7 per cent. For
CO2 emissions excluding the forests and land-use sector
(37,797 Gg), the largest source was fuel combustion, with the energy
and transformation sector contributing 75.3 per cent, industry
7.7 per cent, transport 7 per cent, and cement production
1.6 per cent. For CH4 emissions
(323 Gg) underground and surface oil-shale mining and
operations in oil and natural gas distribution systems accounted for
67 per cent of total 1990 emissions, with agriculture contributing 19
per cent from enteric fermentation and animal waste and the waste
sector about 13 per cent. Estimates of N2O emissions (2.4
Gg) are highly uncertain, with fuel combustion as the major source.
Emissions of gases from fuel combustion and from land use were
estimated to be: carbon monoxide (CO) about 185.8 Gg, nitrogen oxides
(NOx ) 94.4 Gg and non-methane volatile organic compounds
(NMVOC) 22.9 Gg. These results must however be treated as
preliminary. No information has been provided on emissions of
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur
hexafluoride (SF6).
25. From forests and land-use change, carbon dioxide
emissions in 1990 were estimated in the national communication at
3,399 Gg, and removals at 11,347 Gg. Emissions from biomass burned
for energy use are included in the energy sector data. Removals of
CO2 by the forest sector, including changes in land use
and removals from areas abandoned as managed lands and converted to
forests, have now been calculated at about 8,555 Gg of
CO2. The inventory estimates being developed indicate
emissions of CH4 from forest conversion (605 Gg) and
wetland drainage (9,746 Gg), giving total emissions of 10,351 Gg. The
review team encouraged Estonia to continue to refine data on
emissions and removals in the forest and land-use
sector.
26. The inventory was prepared using a top-down
methodological approach based on aggregate fuel consumption data for
energy sector emissions. Data on specific activity levels of most
sources are not yet available. The review team recommended that
emissions from other industrial sectors (for example, the pulp
industry), the use of solvents (which is low) and agricultural waste
be included in the next communication. Activity data and emission
factors for the transport sector and waste landfills also need to be
refined and submitted with the next national communication. Because
of economic restructuring and changes in the way statistics are
collected, the post-1993 data are much more reliable than those for
earlier years.
27. The team was of the view that the work being done is
of excellent quality, particularly that on improving the inventory. A
great deal of effort is being devoted to preparing a thorough and
well-documented inventory according to the IPCC guidelines. The
effort is commendable particularly in view of the limited resources,
problems with statistics and the rapid changes taking place in the
economy.
III. POLICIES AND MEASURES
28. In its national communication, Estonia described its
strategic goals and indicated possible measures that could help to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with the emphasis on measures to
improve the efficiency of energy end-use. However, because of the
transitional circumstances, Estonia was not able to report any
policies and measures implemented or committed to at the time the
national communication was submitted.
29. During the country visit Estonia provided the review
team with additional material on measures that have been implemented
or will be implemented in the near future with finance from the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the World
Bank, bilateral assistance from other countries, and domestic funds.
These resources include the rehabilitation of district heating
systems, conversion of fossil fuel boilers to biofuel, improvement of
energy efficiency in buildings, retrofitting of energy generation
plants, and education and training. No estimates were available of
the effects of these measures on greenhouse gas emissions, or on how
the measures are expected to interact. Some information was provided
on the degree of implementation of these measures. There has been no
monitoring of the effects of measures because they are still at the
planning or early implementation stage.
30. The team noted that Estonia has adopted a number of
environmental laws since 1990 that provide a framework for the design
and implementation of climate change policies. These laws, enacted or
under preparation, include the Environmental Fund Act (1994), which
lays down the Fund's purpose, funding administration and
accountability (the Fund itself has existed since 1983); the
Sustainable Development Act (1995), which specifies guiding
principles and requires a national energy programme to be drawn up in
order to balance economic activities with environmental needs; a
draft air pollution act, which will require implementation of
emission standards; and a draft energy law which will require energy
industries to take environmental concerns into account.
31. A number of economic instruments have also been
introduced, which are expected to stimulate the introduction of new
technology, one example being the emission charges on sulphur
dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and particulates. The
import tax for vehicles over 13 years old, although very low, is 50
per cent higher than that for newer ones.
32. The 1992 Energy Conservation Programme includes the
modernization of existing
oil-shale fired energy production units, heat production
and distribution facilities and the installation of heat
meters.
A. Energy
33. Estonia is likely to continue to use oil-shale for
another 30 years. Prior to 1991 Estonia exported about half of the
electricity it produced. Because of the collapse of Estonias
traditional export markets for electricity (in Russia and Latvia)
there is large
overcapacity in electricity generation. Two oil-shale
fired power plants provide around
95 per cent of the electricity consumed in Estonia; two
other power plants provide about
5 per cent of total capacity to meet peak loads. The
electricity and heat production plants use outdated technology and
are poorly maintained so their efficiency is low, about 28 per cent
on average.
34. Estonias energy policy aims to improve the efficiency
of power generation, distribution and consumption, open the
electricity and fuel markets to competition, foster fuel substitution
by local fuels (peat, wood), and encourage the population to save
energy. The drafting of energy legislation and the establishment of a
national energy board are under consideration.
35. District heating systems deliver heat to more than 75
per cent of residential buildings, and the heating distribution
network is well developed with over 2,500 km of pipelines. The many
small boilers in Estonia that provide heat have very low efficiency
and high heat losses. There are heat losses of between 6 per cent and
12 per cent from the pipelines and losses could be as high as 30 per
cent when connections to consumers are taken into account. More than
60 per cent of state-owned buildings are prefabricated concrete block
constructions with little insulation and high heat losses. In a
significant number of buildings residents are unable to regulate
their energy consumption. At present most customers are charged a
flat rate based on the floor area of the dwelling rather than
according to the amount of heat they consume. There is a technical
potential for saving more than 25 per cent of the energy used in
residential heating through improved insulation and other energy
efficiency measures. The introduction of cost-effective measures
could result in energy savings of about 10 per cent .
36. Estonias Energy Conservation Programme, initiated in
1992, has an allocation of $1.2 million for energy-saving projects to
update heat production and distribution facilities, for example by
changing boilers over to wood and peat from gas, coal and oil-shale,
laying improved pipelines, and installing heat meters and modern
substations in buildings to provide more accurate control and
regulation of heat consumption.
B. Industry
37. Restructuring of the industrial sector led to a 40 per
cent decrease in industrial energy use between 1990 and 1994. The
energy intensity of industry is still in many cases very high,
because production processes are inefficient, equipment is worn out,
and technologies are obsolete. To curb regional transboundary
pollution, polluting enterprises are required to pay charges based on
the volume of emissions of the major regulated pollutants:
SO2, NOx, CO and particulates. The revenue from
these charges goes into the Environmental Fund, making up 20 per cent
of the Fund's income. This measure is expected to reduce carbon
dioxide emissions by increasing energy efficiency. There are no
specific measures to reduce emissions of GHGs from the industrial
sector.
C. Transport
38. After a sharp fall between 1991 and 1992 emissions
from private cars have begun to increase again because of the rapid
rise in the number of vehicles. The number of private cars rose by
about 30 per cent between 1991 and 1994. The number of trucks and
buses remains about 20 per cent below the 1990 levels. There has been
a relative increase in the transport of goods by road at the expense
of rail; but the share of transport as a percentage of total fuel
consumption is still less than 10 per cent. Total consumption of
petrol has increased, but in 1994 was still lower than in 1990. Newer
cars often have bigger engines which consume more fuel, but they are
also more fuel efficient. Interpretation of what these trends mean
for future emissions is difficult.
39. There are standards for CO2 and
NOx emissions for new passenger cars. A road tax and
parking fees have been introduced in the cities. There is an import
tax on vehicles,
and the tax on cars older than 13 years is 50 per cent
higher than that for newer cars. The taxation of motor fuels (in
addition to the 18 per cent value added tax) is low, but there are
proposals to implement differentiated fuel taxes to provide
incentives for the use of cleaner fuels. These measures, while not
enacted specifically in connection with climate change, will help to
curb emissions of GHGs.
D. Agriculture, forestry, land-use
change
40. The team was provided with extensive information on
forestry and silviculture. Forestry activities focus on continuing to
expand the forested areas in the extensive natural grasslands.
Exemption from land taxes is granted to owners to preserve wetlands
in their natural state, which will enhance the sink capacity. Peat
exploitation is expected to increase to provide boiler fuel but the
area of managed peat fields remains a small percentage of the total
area.
E. Waste
41. Waste policy focuses on management of hazardous waste
and only a few measures in the waste sector are expected to have any
impact on emissions of GHGs in the near term. In Tallinn, where one
third of the population lives, landfill gas is collected and used to
produce heat. There are charges for inert waste and higher charges
for hazardous waste. Reused or recycled waste is exempted from these
charges. Estonia aims to improve urban waste management, but
implementation of measures to achieve this will depend on
availability of financial resources.
F. Measures under
preparation
42. Estonia is drawing up legislation and regulations
which will correspond to those of the European Union. For example,
Estonia is working to gradually introduce European Commission
directives on building standards; draft regulations have been
prepared for building materials and methods; and insulation and
thermal performance standards are to be implemented in the
future.
43. Improving the efficiency of the electricity generating
plants and researching the possibility of fluidized bed combustion
technology for oil-shale have high priority. Modernization of
existing oil-shale fired power plants to reduce SO2 and
fly ash discharges into the atmosphere is also a priority in Estonia,
but the technology to improve the efficiency of oil-shale plants is
still at the development stage. A decision on the approach to be
adopted - whether to increase combustion efficiency, or retrofit, or
both - has yet to be made.
IV. PROJECTIONS AND EFFECTS OF POLICIES AND
MEASURES
44. Estonia did not present a projection of GHG emissions
in its national communication. However, the review team was given
detailed information on CO2 emission scenarios that have
been developed by Tallinn Technical University since the submission
of the national communication. According to these estimates,
emissions of CO2 in the year 2000 will be
40-50 per cent of 1990 levels, as a result of economic
restructuring, greater efficiency in energy production,
transformation and distribution, and energy conservation measures.
Projections have not been developed for CH4,
N2O or other gases or sinks. The review team noted that
there are major problems in making assumptions on key economic
variables in a situation of rapid socio-economic change, but strongly
recommends that an effort be made for the next communication when
updated official projections should be available.
45. The CO2 emission scenarios were developed
using MARKAL - a demand-driven, multi-period linear programming model
of the energy system. The base year used for the projections is 1993,
which is the first year for which reliable data are available. GDP
assumptions were provided, although data for GDP are highly uncertain
owing to the major changes in the structure of the economy, in the
national statistical system and in the calculation of the exchange
rate. All important assumptions used for the scenarios were provided,
including energy prices and population growth rates.
46. The scenarios provide a "without measures" or base
case projection which assumes that current trends continue, as well
as two projections that include some measures of different
stringency: one scenario incorporates the impacts of measures for
reducing SO2 and NOx emissions to control
transboundary pollution; and the other includes measures specifically
for reducing CO2 emissions. Under the base case - which
assumes that no measures are taken in the future to reduce emissions
- CO2 emissions rise from 18,000 Gg in 1993 to 21,000 Gg
(low demand growth) and 25,000 Gg (high demand growth) in 2003. Under
both of the "with measures" scenarios, CO2 emissions
remain relatively stable at around 18,000 Gg from 1993 to 2003 under
low growth assumptions and increase to
20,000 Gg under high growth assumptions. These scenarios
do not correspond to the energy conservation measures that are being
implemented. Each of the scenarios includes a sensitivity analysis
with a range of assumptions about energy demand growth.
47. The model that was used also produces cost estimates
for different scenarios and technology options. These results show
that construction of new oil-shale power plants would not be
cost-effective under any scenario. A thorough description of the
model is provided, but this does not describe the model's strengths
and weaknesses. The model is not disaggregated by sector and cannot
provide sectoral projections of emissions.
V. EXPECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
AND ADAPTATION MEASURES
48. The team was informed that, since the national
communication was submitted, a vulnerability study for the country
has been developed with assistance from the Country Studies Program
of the United States. This study used five general circulation models
to assess the possible future climate in Estonia and possible impacts
on four main sectors: forestry, agriculture, water resources and
coastal zones.
49. The response of forests to the proposed climate
scenarios was studied for five sites with rich forest ecosystems and
different climatic zones. Water resources vulnerability was assessed
for three rivers with different hydrological regimes and landscape
conditions. Impacts of a one-metre rise in sea level on groundwater
fluctuations and the response of natural and socio-economic systems
were studied in low-lying coastal areas.
50. The effects of climate change on forests are difficult
to define. The total biomass of the species is expected to decrease
by 21-35 per cent. However, a replacement of present coniferous and
deciduous species is likely, with different productivity and economic
impacts.
51. Changes in agriculture are expected to influence the
structure of the rural economy. Because of climate change the barley
yield is expected to decrease by 17-18 per cent, and the potato yield
to become unstable; the conditions are expected to be favourable only
for herbage cultivation. The increase in biomass would support dairy
farming. It is estimated that the ultimate effect will probably not
be damaging to agriculture.
52. The economic loss because of sea level rise is
expected to be considerable. It is estimated that with a one-metre
rise in sea level, about 3 per cent of the territory would be
inundated or damaged. According to the vulnerability assessment,
climate change is not expected to affect the water supply although it
could increase food production and reduce consumption of energy for
heating.
VI. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
53. Several programmes are being implemented with external
assistance for reconstruction of heating facilities, metering, and
energy conservation in buildings. This includes an EBRD 10 year loan
of DM 73.4 million for reconstruction of power plants and heat
distribution networks and supply of meters and a European Union loan
of EK 76.4 million for reconstitution of heat markets and production
of peat and wood. Low interest loans for rehabilitation of energy
facilities and reduction of losses are also available from bilateral
donors, such as Finland, Sweden and Denmark. Estonia has obtained
grant funding from the European Union, for example under the PHARE
programme, which includes support for studies and training towards
energy sector restructuring, development of energy policies and
legislation, and energy-saving measures; under the THERMIE programme,
for workshops and training on energy audits, energy management, and
renewable energy; and under the SYNERGY programme, which aims to
develop European Energy Charter policies, for energy policy and
planning, and to improve energy efficiency.
54. The review team was informed that cooperation with
other countries in the Baltic Sea area on energy and environment, and
international assistance for the environment, are important areas for
international cooperation. Cooperation among the Baltic States
(Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) is given high priority.
VII. RESEARCH AND SYSTEMATIC
OBSERVATION
55. No information was included in the national
communication on research. The review team was informed that several
institutes provide data to assist in the development of environmental
policy. Scientific organizations - the Institute of Ecology, the
Institute of Energy Research, the Institute of Meteorology and
Hydrology, and different universities - participate in working groups
to develop measures to combat climate change. The team recommends
that key deliberations of these working groups be reported in the
next communication.
VIII. EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLIC
AWARENESS
56. No information was included in the national
communication on raising public awareness. During the country visit,
however, the team was informed of training activities being carried
out with the help of funding under the European Union's PHARE and
THERMIE programmes.
57. Environmental awareness is high, and non-governmental
organizations continue to play an important role in carrying out
studies and influencing policy formulation. The Ministry of the
Environment has created a post for a specialist responsible for
organizing training for environmental experts and for promoting
contacts with ministries, schools and the media. Training related to
the introduction of new combustion technology is being carried
out.
58. The Government has the obligation to disseminate
information for general public use with the exception of information
that is classified by law and information intended for internal use
only. The radio regularly broadcasts environmental news.
- - - - -
1. In accordance with decision 2/CP.1
of the Conference of the Parties, the full draft of this report was
communicated to the Estonian Government, which had no further
comments.