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FCCC/IDR.1/CHE

27 February 1996

ENGLISH ONLY

SWITZERLAND

Report on the in-depth review of the national communication of Switzerland

Review team:

Mariano Bauer, Mexico

Jean-Jacques Becker, France

Aniket Ghai, UNFCCC secretariat

Tahar Hadj-Sadok, UNFCCC secretariat, Coordinator

GE.96-

Under Articles 4 and 12 of the Convention. Parties are requested to prepare national communications on their implementation of the Convention. Guidelines for the preparation of national communications and the process for the review were agreed on by the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change, by its decisions 9/2 and 10/1, and 3/CP.1 (see FCCC/CP/1995/7/Add.1) In accordance with these decisions, a compilation and synthesis of the 15 national communications from Annex I Parties was prepared (A/AC.237/81).

When reviewing the implementation of the Convention of the Parties, the subsidiary bodies and the Conference of the Parties will have this report available to them in English as well as the summary of the report in the six official languages of the United Nations. (These bodies will also have before them the executive summary of the first national communication of Switzerland and country-specific information drawn from a compilation and synthesis report covering all countries that have submitted national communications.)

Summary⁽¹⁾

^{1. The in-depth review of the first national
communication of Switzerland was carried out between August 1995 and
January 1996 and included a country visit by the team from 11 to 14
September 1995. The team included experts from France and
Mexico.}

^{2. In Switzerland, political powers are shared
between the federal Government and the 26 cantons comprising the
Confederation, with responsibilities for the promulgation of laws for
each level of government defined in the Constitution. The process of
formulation of legislation is lengthy, with final decisions
frequently taken by national referenda. There is thus an inherent
uncertainty with regard to how fast policies can be
implemented.}

^{3. Approximately 85 per cent of Switzerland's primary
energy supply is met through imports. About 60 per cent of the
domestic production of electricity is generated through hydroelectric
plants and about 40 per cent through nuclear plants. If the current
moratorium on the construction of new nuclear plants in Switzerland
is extended beyond 2000, part of the electricity demand would
eventually have to be met through imports or by the combustion of
fossil fuels, with major implications for carbon dioxide
(CO₂) emissions. In 1990, per capita emissions of
CO₂ were approximately 6.7 t, compared to an average of
about 12 t in countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD). In 1994, Switzerland had the 10th highest
energy prices and the lowest CO₂ intensity of the 23
countries participating in the International Energy Agency
(IEA).}

^{4. The greenhouse gas inventory covered the three
main greenhouse gases as well as the precursors. A mixture of IPCC
and CORINAIR methodologies was used. Only aggregate emission factors
were provided, rendering it difficult to reconstruct the inventory
data. Total gross CO₂ emissions were 45,700 Gg in 1990. In
estimating CO₂ emissions, the data from the "agriculture"
and "residential/commercial" sectors were not separated.
CO₂ emissions from biomass energy were not calculated. The
inventory included sequestration by sinks, which amounted to 5,200 Gg
of CO₂. In 1990, 274 Gg of methane (CH₄) were
emitted, mostly in the agricultural sector, and partly from
landfills. In per capita terms, these emissions are about half the
OECD average. Up to 1995, the data for CH₄ emissions from
energy combustion and industrial processes were not available
separated from non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC)
emissions, except for transport. 15.2 Gg of nitrous oxide
(N₂O) were emitted in 1990, mainly from agriculture.
Estimates were approximate except for those for the transport sector.
Estimates of the precursors are based on a study carried out in 1987
in the context of the Clean Air Ordinance.}

^{5. When signing the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, Switzerland announced a self-imposed
national target of stabilizing CO₂ emissions by the year
2000 at 1990 levels, and reducing them thereafter. The Strategy to
Combat Air Pollution of 1986 establishes,}^inter
alia^{, targets to return to 1960 emission levels for
carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and
NMVOCs.}

^{6. To a large extent, greenhouse gases are targeted
by sectoral policies and measures, which have been introduced to
implement several articles of the Constitution and federal and
cantonal laws on energy, environmental protection, hazardous
substances and forestry. General information was provided on the
status of implementation of policies and measures. For example, the
yearly evaluation of the programme Energy 2000 suggested that, after
four years of the 10-year programme, approximately one third of the
expected gains of renewable energy use and the stabilization of
CO₂ emissions had been achieved, with studies indicating
that policies and measures to improve energy efficiency were being
broadly implemented, although with some variance as regards the
coverage among cantons and energy consumption sectors. Switzerland
expects that the programme's targets for the year 2000 will be
met.}

^{7. A number of important developments have occurred
since submission of the first communication. Debate has progressed on
the energy law that is expected to replace}

^{the Decree on Energy Use after 1998. Simultaneously,
a proposal for a CO₂ reduction law is being elaborated,
which would entitle a CO₂ tax to be introduced in the
event that other measures fail to achieve specified targets. The
approved "Alp Initiative" aims at shifting all trans-Alpine road
freight to rail over the next 10 years; proposals are being discussed
for an increase in tax on fuel and a revised tax system on road
freight transport to help generate revenue for the construction of
the planned New Alpine Rail Axis (NEAT). A tax on NMVOCs has been
approved, and is expected to come into effect in
1997.}

^{8. The national communication does not provide enough
information to allow a third party to gain a full understanding of
the projections analysis although some clarification was provided
during the country visit. Projected emissions of CO₂,
CH₄, N₂O, NO_x, CO and NMVOCs were
provided for 2000.}

^{9. The inventory figure for CO₂ used in
the projections analysis was corrected for climate variability. Gross
CO₂ emissions are projected to decrease by 2.5 per cent in
2000 compared to 1990 levels, but to increase by 1.3 per cent if the
climate correction is not applied. Projections for 2030 are also
provided for energy-related CO₂ assuming a continuation of
the already agreed policy (in particular the Decree on Energy Use).
These emissions decrease by 3.3 per cent in 2000 but show an increase
of 5 per cent in 2030, compared to climate-corrected 1990
levels.}

^{10. A decrease of 7 per cent in CH₄
emissions is projected for the year 2000, compared to 1990 levels.
Data from the 1993 livestock inventory are used to derive a best
guess for agricultural emissions in 2000, in the absence of a proper
projection estimate. N₂O emissions - which include only
data from the transport sector - are projected to increase sharply by
75 per cent because of the introduction of the catalytic
converter.}

^{11. The brief description of research on
vulnerability assessment and on the expected impacts of climate
change contained in the national communication was further developed
during the country visit. No adaptation measures have been taken yet,
but there is awareness of the possible need for such measures. A
workshop on "Climate change impacts and adaptation options" was held
in June 1995 and a paper on specific research needs is under
preparation at the Federal Office of Environment, Forests and
Landscape. In addition, Switzerland submitted a paper to the IPCC
suggesting that a workshop be held to update the IPCC Technical
Guidelines for the Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation
Options.}

^{12. Swiss official development assistance (ODA)
amounted to 0.34 per cent of GDP in 1994. A decision was taken in
1991 to create a special fund for international cooperation with
developing countries in the global environmental area, in the amount
of Sw F 300 million over five years. This "new and additional"
funding was partly utilized for the Swiss contribution to the Global
Environmental Facility (GEF) and partly for bilateral cooperation
activities. As the special funding decided in 1991 is fully
committed, funding from regular sources will be provided to continue
bilateral activities, possibly at current levels. As to the GEF, a
new frame-credit may be proposed in order to continue the Swiss
contribution. The potential for the Swiss private sector to engage in
activities implemented jointly (AIJ) was viewed as limited, as the
bulk of Swiss emissions comes from the transport and residential
sectors, which are characterized by small decentralized sources,
rather than from utilities and industry. The in depth-review team
also noted that Switzerland has provided financial support to the
UNFCCC secretariat in the past, and continues to do
so.}

^{13. The information campaigns carried out by the
government and by non-governmental organizations were described in
greater detail during the in-depth review. Switzerland also supports
UNEP's Information Unit on Conventions.}

^{I. INTRODUCTION AND NATIONAL
CIRCUMSTANCES}

^{14. Switzerland ratified the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 10 December 1993. Its first
national communication under the UNFCCC was received by the
secretariat on 21 September 1994.}

^{15. The in-depth review of the first national
communication was carried out between August 1995 and January 1996
and included a country visit by the review team to Berne from 11 to
14 September 1995. The team included Mr. Mariano Bauer (Mexico), Mr.
Jean-Jacques Becker (France), Mr. Aniket Ghai (UNFCCC secretariat)
and Mr. Tahar Hadj-Sadok (UNFCCC secretariat, Coordinator). During
the course of the visit, the team met with experts from a range of
federal departments, as well as representatives of the
non-governmental community.}

^{16. Policies and measures to address climate change
in Switzerland derive from several articles of the Constitution and
from federal and cantonal laws on energy, environmental protection,
hazardous substances and forestry. To a large extent greenhouse gases
are controlled by sectoral policies and measures, which are
introduced to implement the different laws. The team noted that
instruments to cope with climate change in a cross-sectoral manner -
such as the proposed CO₂-reduction law which envisages the
possible introduction of a CO₂ tax - were becoming
increasingly apparent in the national response. Laws impacting on
climate change are supported by programmes or sectoral plans;
especially noteworthy are the Energy 2000 programme and, as regards
emissions of precursors from combustion, the Strategy to Combat Air
Pollution. A number of national targets are established in these
programmes. Energy 2000, which was launched in 1990/91, sets a
target,}^{inter alia,}^{to stabilize
CO₂ emissions in 2000 at 1990 levels, and to reduce these
levels thereafter, that was announced at the Second World Climate
Conference in November 1990. The Strategy to Combat Air Pollution
establishes,}^{inter alia}^{, targets to
return to 1960 emissions levels for CO, NO_X and
NMVOCs.}

^{17. The}^{response to climate
change}^{is organized through several committees,
operating at various levels. The Interdepartmental Working Group
(IWG) on the Evolution of the Climate System was set up in 1989 to
prepare a strategy for combating global warming; its activities ended
after publication of the document "Global Warming and Switzerland:
Foundation for a National Strategy". A second committee, IWG-Rio
Climate, is one of seven interdepartmental working groups established
to follow up the work of the United Nations Conference on Environment
and Development, but is devoted exclusively to climate change. The
first national communication was elaborated in the framework of this
group, which meets under the chairmanship of the Federal Office of
Environment, Forests and Landscape.}

^{18. At the}^political^{level, powers are shared between the federal Government and the 26
cantons comprising the Confederation, with responsibilities for the
promulgation of laws for each level of government being defined in
the Constitution. In general, the Constitution applies the principle
of subsidiarity, under which competence for the implementation of all
federal framework laws is devolved to the cantons, unless otherwise
stated in the Constitution. The Clean Air Ordinance, for instance,
requests the cantons themselves to establish targets and associated
policies and measures. The Constitution may be modified at any stage
by referendum, however, to transfer such powers to the federal level,
as was illustrated by the vote on energy policy in 1990 which
empowered the federal Government to pass certain laws on energy
efficiency and renewable energy.}

^{19. The process of}^{formulation of
national legislation}^{is itself complex. Usually an
expert group from the federal administration prepares draft
legislation which is then presented to the different federal
departments for comment. The text is passed to the Federal Council,
which in turn engages in a consultation process with the public,
including political parties and cantonal authorities. In the case of
the initial proposal for a CO₂ tax, the consultation
lasted six months. A revised version of the text is then presented to
the parliament for approval. In general, laws may be challenged by
the people if 50,000 signatures to this effect are collected; the
question is then settled through a national referendum. Laws passed
at the cantonal level are subject to a similar process of
consultation and approval, although, in practice, the process is not
as lengthy as for federal laws. There is thus an inherent uncertainty
with regard to how fast policies can be
implemented.}

^{20. A number of features of Switzerland's}^geography^{also merit special
consideration. Its situation in central Europe results in
considerable transit traffic, which could greatly increase if certain
transport regulations are harmonized with those in neighbouring
countries.}

^{21. The country's}^economy^{is largely dependent on
services, with a relatively small industrial sector. Much of the
demand for energy-intensive goods is supplied through importation.
Generally, about 85 per cent of the primary energy supply is met
through imports, almost entirely fossil fuels. The indigenous
production of electricity involves very low greenhouse gas emissions,
with about 60 per cent of the domestic production being generated
through hydroelectric plants and about 40 per cent through nuclear
plants. Final consumption typically consists of electricity
(approximately 20 per cent), fossil fuels (approximately 75 per cent)
and wood and wastes (approximately 5 per cent). The extension of the
current moratorium on the construction of nuclear power plants beyond
2000 would be of considerable importance to Switzerland, as, if new
plants cannot be built to replace old ones, part of the electricity
demand would eventually have to be met by the combustion of fossil
fuels or by imports. In 1990, per capita emissions of CO₂
were approximately 6.7 t, compared to an average of about 12 t in the
OECD countries. In 1994, Switzerland had the 10th highest energy
prices and the lowest CO₂ intensity of the 23 countries
participating in the IEA.}

^{II. INVENTORIES OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS
AND REMOVALS}

^{22. The greenhouse gas inventory covered the three
main greenhouse gases as well as the precursors. In its first
national communication, Switzerland could not yet follow the
guidelines recommendation of reporting inventory data on
perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and sulphur
hexafluoride (SF₆). As recommended, sinks were included
separately and a base year of 1990 was used. A number of data gaps,
however, are present in the national communication inventory
information, not all of which were explained during the in-depth
review. These gaps are discussed in detail in the paragraphs below.
Information was presented on a gas-by-gas basis, and was aggregated
using global warming potentials (GWPs), taking, as recommended,
figures from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
supplementary report of 1992 with a 100-year time horizon (IPCC
1992).}

^A.^{Carbon Dioxide
(CO₂)}

^{23. Total gross CO₂ emissions were 45,700
Gg in 1990.}^{Energy-related CO₂
emissions}^{for 1990 amounted to 42,900 Gg. In compiling
the inventory, IPCC methodology was followed, but CORINAIR emission
factors were used for calculating these emissions, as these figures
were felt to be closer to Swiss values than the IPCC defaults. Only
aggregate emission factors were provided, rendering it difficult to
reconstruct the inventory data. The data from the "agriculture" and
"residential/commercial" sectors were not separated, although this
distinction will be made in subsequent updates. The 2,100 Gg of
CO₂ from international aviation were presented separately
as requested, but were added to totals. The Swiss experts indicated
that totals also included emissions corresponding to car fuel
purchased by residents of neighbouring countries in response to the
lower prices in Switzerland, estimated at 870 Gg CO₂ in
1990. The quality of data for energy-related CO₂ emissions
was felt to be high. CO₂ emissions from biomass energy
were not calculated.}

^24.^{Non-energy CO₂
emissions}^{totalled 2,800 Gg in 1990. In the national
communication, industrial emissions related only to the cement
industry, as others were felt to be low. Recent work, which will also
be presented in the next inventory, has broadened the coverage to
include emissions from iron and steel production. The inventory
included sequestration by}^sinks^{, with
total sink capacity for 1990 estimated at equivalent to 5,200 Gg
CO₂, or equivalent to about 12 per cent of CO₂
emissions from energy use, which was included in the total. No
uncertainty range was provided in the national communication. The
estimate of the carbon storage increment in forests was derived from
the forest inventory of 1985, using average productivity values.
There was no direct measurement of productivity, but this will be
possible with the second forest inventory, expected in 1998. As a
result, the sink capacity of the forests might be slightly
overestimated. The sink estimate includes an approximation of the
carbon stored in wood products; the associated annual increment might
be overestimated because of a low estimate of wood products leaving
the system, as current figures suggest an average life time of 60 to
100 years, which might be slightly high. Carbon stored in forest
soils was not taken into consideration in the inventory although the
forest area has increased from 825 to 1196 kha during the last 100
years. The team was informed that the absence of an estimate of
CO₂ emissions and sinks related to agriculture rested on
the assumption that for plant cultivation the amount of carbon fixed
is equal to the amount of carbon released.}

^B.^{Methane
(CH₄)}

^{25. CH₄ emissions in 1990 totalled 274 Gg.
In per capita terms, these emissions are about half the OECD average.
They account for approximately 6.3 per cent of total greenhouse gas
emissions, if calculated with direct IPCC 1992 GWPs as in the
national communication. Using GWPs from the IPCC supplementary report
of 1994 with a 100-year time horizon (IPCC 1994), that figure
increases to 12.9 per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions. In the
report, no uncertainty range was provided for these data. Of total
CH₄ emissions, 78.4 per cent arises from the agricultural
sector, 50.3 per cent from enteric fermentation of ruminants and 28.1
per cent from manure management. Estimates were made using IPCC
default emission factors for enteric fermentation and manure
management. It is possible that emissions from the storage of cattle
manure are overestimated since the fact that the cattle spend an
large part of their time in the pastures, when emissions are likely
to be negligible, was not taken into account. Studies are under way
to improve these estimates, which should be reflected in the next
national communication to be provided in April 1997. Approximately 17
per cent of total CH₄ emissions occurs in landfills. A
first order kinetic model was used for estimation, but no precise
information was provided on the volume of waste and emission factors.
The team was informed that the data for the 1996 inventory update are
expected to have an uncertainty range of 20 per cent. Until 1995,
methane emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes
were not available separated from NMVOC emissions, except for
transport, for which a figure was derived using CH₄/NMVOC
ratios for different types of vehicles. Meanwhile, the data for all
sources have been separated and will be reported in the next
communication concerning greenhouse gas
inventories.}

^C.^{Nitrous oxide
(N₂O)}

^{26. 15.2 Gg of N₂O were emitted in 1990.
Using IPCC 1992 GWPs, these emissions contribute 8.6 per cent to
total greenhouse gas emissions, or 9.2 per cent of total greenhouse
gas emissions with IPCC 1994 GWPs. No uncertainty range was provided
in the report. Data in the 1996 update are expected to have a range
of 50 per cent. Agriculture is responsible for 87.5 per cent of total
N₂O emissions. The estimates are based on an emission
factor calculated for German conditions, which is two to three times
higher than the IPCC default value. N₂O emissions from
acid rain deposition were also included. Studies will be launched to
improve the estimate. Fuel combustion and industrial processes
contribute 12.5 per cent of total N₂O emissions. Very
approximative estimates were made for each sector, except for
transport, for which a figure was derived using ratios per kilometre
for different types of vehicles. The amount of N₂O emitted
from land use change and forestry and waste has not been
estimated.}

^D.^Precursors

^{27. Estimates of the precursors are based on a study
carried out in 1987 in the context of the Clean Air Ordinance.
Reported figures for NO_x, CO and NMVOCs were 184 Gg, 430
Gg and 297 Gg respectively. Differences in levels of activity in the
various sectors in 1990 as well as the use of preliminary emission
factors in the 1987 study suggest that the reported figures might
differ significantly from actual 1990 emissions; this will be
verified in an update to be published in early 1996. Uncertainty was
addressed during the team's visit, but has not been discussed in the
report.}

^E.^Other
gases

^{28. No inventory information was provided on HFCs,
SF₆ or PFCs, but work is under way, in collaboration with
Swiss industry, to calculate these data, which are expected to be
included in the second national communication in
1997.}

^{III. POLICIES AND MEASURES}

^{29. In 1990, a major leap forward was achieved in}^{energy policy}^{through the programme
Energy 2000. The programme was the result of the acceptance of an
article on energy in the Federal Constitution and of a moratorium on
the construction of new nuclear power plants. As a direct result,
some important measures to improve energy efficiency and to promote
renewable energy were implemented with the decree and the ordinance
on energy use. The three main objectives of Energy 2000 are the
stabilization of fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions by
2000, reduction in growth and stabilization after 2000 of electricity
consumption and the increased contribution of renewable sources and
capacity extension of existing nuclear power plants. The programme
includes federal and cantonal legal instruments as well as voluntary
actions undertaken in many cases jointly by industries, consumers and
governments. Yearly reports provide overviews on the current progress
of this programme. The Federal Decree on Energy Use is valid up to
1998. It establishes regulations on the energy consumption of
installations, vehicles and appliances, heating of water, metering
and invoicing of heating costs in rented buildings, licensing for new
electrical heating systems and conditions for independent power
producers. The decree also provides for financial support for
renewable sources of energy.}

^{30. The Ordinance on Energy Use, which contains the
specific provisions to implement the decree, establishes,}^{inter alia}^{, energy consumption targets
for household appliances and other equipment and (as of January 1996)
for passenger cars. Adherence to these targets varies from one
appliance to another; information provided to the team for 1993/94
for refrigerators and freezers indicated a good performance. The
federal regulations and principles in the building sector are to be
implemented by the cantons. Since 1990, 24 of the 26 cantons have
adopted new legal measures contributing to the Energy 2000 targets.
Shortage of funding and lack of personnel at the cantonal level were
reported as major obstacles to the implementation of energy-related
policies and measures.}

^{31. The team was informed that the yearly evaluation
of Energy 2000 had recently been carried out to assess what had been
achieved halfway through the programme. The broad conclusions were
that a third of the total gains expected of renewable energy had been
achieved, and that not all individual policies and measures had yet
been implemented, although the broad sectoral targets were in place
at the cantonal level. The team was also informed that implementation
of some programmes required additional funding and expertise.
Summaries of evaluation reports of the different policy measures
taken in the frame of Energy 2000 were presented during the country
visit. The Swiss Government expects that the targets for the year
2000 will be met.}

^{32. Information was also provided on future policies
and measures. After 1998, to succeed the Decree on Energy Use, a
currently debated proposal for an energy law is expected to come into
effect. The process of debate has resulted in broad-based approval
for more stringent regulations on appliances, cars and installations.
As regards federal requirements for heating of buildings, framework
legislation for cantonal implementation found broad acceptance. Still
under discussion is the proposal to establish a new energy agency. In
support of the proposed energy law, a follow-up programme, "Energy
2000+", is being developed. The popular "Energy and Environment
Initiative" and the "Solar Initiative" (on which the parliament and
the public will have to vote) propose the establishment of an
incentive energy tax (a counterproposal to the CO₂ tax)
and of a subsidy programme targeting solar energy, respectively.}

^{33. A proposal for a CO₂ reduction law is
in preparation. An earlier project for a tax on CO₂
emissions was rejected in a public consultation in 1994, owing partly
to disagreement over the appropriate instrument and partly to
opposition to earmarking of revenues. The new proposal will be
presented as a CO₂ reduction law, under which quantified
CO₂ reduction targets will be set within specified
time-frames, such as 2005, 2010 and 2020. The gradual implementation
of a CO₂ tax, the revenues from which will be fully
restored to the taxpayer, will be authorized only in the event that
other measures, after a period of monitoring and evaluation, prove to
be inadequate to reach the specified targets. Thus, should the
proposal be approved and should it become necessary to implement the
tax, this would not occur before the year 2000. The CO₂
reduction tax proposal is to be presented to the Federal Council by
mid-1996.}

^{34. The}^{transport sector}^{is the largest consumer of primary energy, responsible for 32 per
cent. The team was informed that environmental policy in the area of
transport was driven mainly by factors such as concern over air
pollution, and density of traffic and noise, rather than by aims to
reduce CO₂. In February 1994, the "Alp Initiative", which
aims,}^{inter alia,}^{at shifting all
trans-Alpine road freight to rail over the next 10 years, was voted
on and approved. The implementation of this constitutional amendment
is envisaged through the approved NEAT project (New Alpine Rail
Axis), coupled with other measures such as revision of the road tax
system for heavy traffic. The whole strategy and its elements are
under discussion. Nevertheless, some cornerstones in the strategy are
clear: the construction of two new tunnels through the Alps for rail
transport is needed to increase capacity and to reduce travel time. A
proposal for the introduction of a revised taxation system for heavy
vehicles (over 3.5 tonnes) has gone through the public consultation
process. Implementation is planned at the earliest for 1998, but will
probably take place later. At present, taxation is based on a flat
fee for heavy vehicles over 3.5t to use roads. This is to be replaced
by a new taxation scheme based on total permissible weight and
kilometres driven. The revised system foresees tax rates that include
the full coverage of the infrastructure costs, as well as some
environmental costs (noise, damage to buildings due to air pollution)
and uncovered costs of accidents. The total external costs of heavy
vehicle road transport were calculated at about Sw F 600 million in
1993. There will be a decrease in total kilometres driven of 2-4 per
cent when all calculated up to now external costs are taken into
account.}

^{35. In addition to the NEAT project, emission
regulations for heavy vehicles have been strengthened, approaching EU
levels, and limits for tractors have been established. A central
concern is that harmonizing weight limits for heavy vehicles in
Switzerland, currently at 28 t, with those in the EU, which are at
either 40 t or 44 t, will result in a sharp increase in transit road
transport and/or a shift from rail to road. Another project - Rail
2000 - which is currently in the phase of implementation, aims at
improving intercity transport. Additional policies are in place,
under cantonal jurisdiction, such as restrictions on parking and the
establishment of speed limits in certain areas.}

^{36. The Clean Air Ordinance of 1985 imposes limits on
the emissions of precursors from combustion equipment. These limits
are made more stringent periodically according to the gap between
actual emissions and targets set out in the Strategy to Combat Air
Pollution of 1986, namely a return to 1960 levels of NMVOCs,
NO_x and CO. Control of local pollution is the main
objective of the Clean Air Ordinance, which also establishes limits
on emissions of precursors from vehicles. Catalytic converters were
introduced in 1987. To control industrial emissions of NMVOCs, a
proposal to introduce a pure incentive tax on NMVOCs in dyes,
solvents and lacquer was approved by parliament in 1995, and is
expected to come into effect in 1997. The tax will be implemented,
commencing at a rate of Sw F1/kg NMVOC, moving up to Sw F2, and
possibly reaching Sw F5 should it be necessary to achieve the
emission target specified in the Clean Air Ordinance. The revenue
generated by this tax will be redistributed to the population on a
per capita basis, possibly through the health care system. Provisions
have been made to tax imported goods with a high content of NMVOCs
and to exempt exported products, fossil fuels and harmless NMVOCs.
Moreover, cantons are required to implement local plans in the
transport sector, aiming at the control of local pollution. Apart
from direct monitoring of projects, yearly reports are prepared on
transport, including evaluation of performance and projections for
future strategies. Implementation of the Clean Air Ordinance is
monitored at both cantonal and federal levels.}

^{37. In the}^agricultural^{sector, there are no specific measures directly aimed at climate
change. A federal law on agriculture provides for support to farmers,
and two ordinances provide farmers with specific financial incentives
to meet environmental standards. Following the conclusion of the
Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations, the old
agricultural law of 1951 will be replaced by a new one, which is
expected before 2002. Framework federal legislation on environmental
protection, on the use of hazardous substances and on water pollution
prevention also impacts on the agricultural sector, although
implementation takes place at the cantonal level. For example,
controls on the use of fertilizer and pesticides to safeguard the
quality of water will have an impact on greenhouse gas
emissions.}

^38.^Forestry^{policy aims
essentially at conservation. Deforestation, for example, is not
allowed except in very specific circumstances and is then coupled
with the duty of afforestation of an equivalent area elsewhere. The
production of wood is only one objective among others, such as
protection against natural hazards. There is no specific policy to
increase the sink capacity of the forestry sector, for instance by
support for afforestation of agricultural land. Afforestation has
been occurring spontaneously, at the same rate over the last 50
years, as trees grow on unused agricultural land and cannot be cut
down once they become "forests".}

^{39. An ordinance on}^{waste
management}^{regulates stringently the creation of new
landfills, requiring all waste to be incinerated to the extent
possible. The implementation of this ordinance is a cantonal
responsibility, which can lead to some delay. Collection and use of
CH₄ emitted by existing landfills is supported in the
energy legislation. Both of these measures contribute indirectly to
climate change mitigation.}

^{IV. PROJECTIONS AND EFFECTS OF POLICIES AND
MEASURES}

^{40. The national communication does not provide
enough information to allow a third party to gain a full
understanding of the projections analysis. Some clarification was
provided during the country visit, but relevant documentation was not
always available in an official language of the United Nations. The
estimated effect of measures was indicated for the most important
measures and for certain packages of measures. Due to synergies
between measures, experts noted the difficulty of estimating the
effects of all individual measures in a way that would avoid
double-counting of expected emissions reductions. Projected emissions
of CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, NO_x, CO
and NMVOCs were provided for 2000. Uncertainty ranges on estimates
were not provided. CO₂ projections till the year 2000
included several scenarios. The expected emission development which
took into consideration the measures already under implementation
served as base scenario. The national communication did not provide
any information on the cost of the policies and measures implemented
by the Swiss Government. The team was informed that cost estimates
had been elaborated for an earlier, not fully compatible, set of
scenario studies. This point will, however, be taken up in the future
in projections analysis involving the scenarios for 2030 in the
context of the CO₂ reduction law and other pending
proposals (e.g., Energy Law, popular initiatives), in which a general
equilibrium model will be used,}^inter
alia^{, to evaluate costs and, in particular, the
burden sharing between income groups. Another study will assess the
impact on the international competitiveness of Swiss
industry.}

^A.^{Carbon Dioxide
(CO₂)}

^{41. Gross CO₂ emissions are projected to
decrease by 2.5 per cent in 2000 compared to 1990 levels. Without the
climate correction, gross CO₂ emissions increase by 1.3
per cent. These figures include emissions from bunker fuels in
totals. If bunker fuels are subtracted, emissions are projected to
increase by 0.5 per cent in 2000 compared to actual emissions in
1990. Projections for 2030 are also provided for energy-related
CO₂. These emissions decrease by 3.3 per cent in 2000 but
show an increase of 5 per cent in 2030, compared in both cases to
1990 levels.}

^{42. The "with measures" scenario considers only
policies and measures already agreed. Some information is also
provided on an alternative "with measures" scenario, which includes
some possible additional measures not yet implemented such as the law
on energy and the CO₂ tax. During the country visit, three
additional scenarios were described, namely: a scenario based on
implementation of the law on energy alone; a scenario based on the
popular "Energy and Environment Initiative" (under which a decrease
of 1 per cent per year in non-renewable energy consumption is
achieved between 2008 and 2030), and the "Solar
Initiative".}

^{43. In all scenarios, the inventory data for
CO₂ emissions for 1990 have been corrected for temperature
variations. The climate correction has been carried out as the
addition of 1,800 Gg of CO₂ to actual 1990 emissions,
which results in an increase of approximately 4 per cent in actual
CO₂ emissions. Figures underlying the computation of this
value are provided in Annex I to the national communication. 1970 has
been selected as the base or "normal" year. Figures indicate a
variation in temperature of +8 per cent to -13 per cent around this
base value for the period 1970 to 1992. Other differences exist in
inventory and projections data for 1990. Emissions from "small-sized"
companies are included in the "industry" category in the projections
data, but come under "services" in the inventory. Other minor
differences, according to Swiss experts, probably arose from using
figures derived from sales in the first case and actual consumption
in the second case. Bunker fuels were added to totals in the
projections analysis, as well as in the inventory.}

^{44. The projections were the result of a major
forecasting exercise led by the Federal Energy Office and coordinated
by a consulting firm, and involving several other consultants and
experts. An evaluation of the impact of individual measures is
available, although not in an official language of the United
Nations. A highly disaggregated bottom-up approach was used, with
considerable detail at the microeconomic level. The model relies on
prospects for the Swiss economy up to the year 2030. Key variables
include population, growth of gross domestic product (GDP), world
energy prices, levels of exchange rates, Swiss industrial prospects,
and so on. Sensitivity analyses made for a lower population growth
scenario are available (subject to language
restrictions).}

^{45. The}^residential^{sector projection estimates heating requirements by considering total
housing area up to 2030, types of buildings, age of buildings,
population, size of families, etc., and also the division between
energy carriers, based in particular on relative prices. Key
variables include average energy requirements per square metre each
year and for each energy source, according to the various buildings
in service and their respective energy efficiency, the efficiency of
burning devices, based on standards and technological progress, warm
water requirements and details on cooking and electric appliances. A
similar approach is used in the}^services^{sector as in the residential sector. The}^industrial^{sector analysis is based on
the assessment of the level of activity in 40 subsectors, examining
different product lines and up to 20 processes.}

^{46. The}^transport^{model
estimates traffic, disaggregated into passenger traffic (in millions
of passenger-kilometres, with a division between private and public
transport, each subdivided into car and motorcycle or bus and train
categories) and freight traffic (in millions of tonne-kilometres,
distinguishing between road and rail transport, and domestic,
international and transit traffic). Specific energy consumption is
also calculated considering,}^inter
alia^{, the impact of standards (target values) and
fuel prices. The projection assumes a constant growth rate in numbers
of private cars and a sharp increase in freight.}

^{47. The model for}^{power
generation}^{is demand-derived and based on earlier
analyses. In the reported scenario, supply analysis rests on the
assumptions that the increase in hydropower is limited to 5 per cent
until 2030 for physical reasons, that the number of nuclear plants
remains constant, but that an increase of 10 per cent occurs in the
capacity of existing plants, that electricity imports remain
constant, and that renewable sources grow at a modest rate. A major
part of the remaining gap between demand and supply will be met by
the development of thermal power, mainly through combined heat and
power stations.}

^{48. A slight decrease in}^{energy-related
CO₂ emissions}^{was projected for 2000 (-3.4
per cent with respect to 1990 corrected for climatic variations, but
+4.9 per cent with respect to 1990 actual emissions). The increase of
8 per cent in the transport sector CO₂ emissions is more
than offset by the decrease in the residential and services sectors
(of -6.7 per cent with respect to the 1990 corrected figure) and
industry (of -26 per cent). These trends largely reflect the
1990-1995 recession and the phasing-out of the aluminium industry.
For 2030, an increase in energy-related CO₂ emissions is
projected (of +5 per cent with respect to 1990 emissions corrected
for climatic variations, or +9.5 per cent with respect to 1990 actual
emissions). Emissions in the transport sector continue to grow (by
+32 per cent compared to 1990), as the volume of traffic increases
more rapidly than improvements in the energy efficiency of vehicles
and the shift from road to rail. The residential and services
sectors' emissions are still decreasing (by -20.5 per cent with
respect to 1990), but industrial emissions increase again (as
production grows faster than energy efficiency, at +13 per cent with
respect to 2000 but nevertheless -17 per cent with respect to 1990).
Emissions from power generation, although still low in absolute
terms, rise sharply because of the introduction of thermal plants (by
+86 per cent with respect to 1990 figures).}

^{49. The projected figure for}^{CO₂ from industrial processes}^{is extracted from a report written in 1987 and is in the process of
being updated. The projection includes}^{sequestration}^{of CO₂ in
forests, with a projected increase in net sinks. The same absorption
factor for forests is assumed to apply in 2000 as in 1990. Total
forest area is growing slightly, as indicated in chapter III above.
Thus, the 3,600 hectares of forest added annually will increase the
sink capacity of forests in Switzerland by less than 2 per cent in
2000. It is implicitly assumed that the harvest of wood will remain
constant between 1990 and 2000, although the national communication
seemingly contradicts this in asserting that is expected to increase
by 18 per cent between 1995 and 2000 with respect to 1983-1987
figures. The latter would result in reducing or substituting fossil
fuel consumption instead of increasing
sequestration.}

^B.^{Methane
(CH₄}⁾

^{50. A decrease of 7 per cent in CH₄
emissions is projected for the year 2000, compared to 1990 levels. It
should be noted, however, that this figure contains agricultural
reductions that were already achieved in 1993. At present, a proper
projection estimate is not considered feasible. Additional
information will be generated, however, for instance by studies to
evaluate the impact of the reform of agricultural policy on
production and to arrive at more appropriate figures on emission
factors.}

^C.^{Nitrous oxide
(N₂O)}

^{51. Emissions from transport are projected to
increase sharply by 75 per cent because of the introduction of the
catalytic converter. This figure, however, is provisional and will be
updated in April 1996. There is no projection for 2000 for
N₂O emissions from agriculture.}

^D.^Precursors

^{52. Projections for 2000 and 2010 provided in the
national communication were extracted from a report written in 1987,
which was updated in 1988. This study is in the process of being
further updated and the new information is expected to be ready for
the April 1996 inventory. Broad trends are nevertheless expected to
remain the same, notably a sharp decrease by 2000 of NO_x,
CO and NMVOC emissions with respect to 1990 levels. As regards the
recently agreed tax on NMVOCs, it is anticipated that a decrease of
75,000 t of emissions per year will be achieved, which would ensure
that the Clean Air Ordinance target would be met.}

^{V. PROJECTED PROGRESS IN GREENHOUSE GAS
MITIGATION}

^{53. A number of measures designed to mitigate
greenhouse gas emissions, both to achieve current targets and to
reduce emissions beyond 2000, are currently in various phases of
discussion or implementation. At present, the major contribution to
CO₂ reduction comes from the Energy 2000 programme,
including the Decree on Energy Use, cantonal energy policies and
voluntary action. Further measures will be the CO₂
reduction law, the energy law, the tax on NMVOCs, the tax on heavy
traffic, the "Alp Initiative", intensification of air pollution
controls and measures to reduce air traffic pollution. These measures
are discussed, in varying detail, in chapters III and
IV.}

^{VI. EXPECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE}

^{54. The brief description given in the national
communication of research on the expected impacts of climate change
was amplified in discussions during the country visit. Research has
been conducted in a number of areas on vulnerability assessment and
on expected impacts of climate change. The main areas of research
include the effects of varying CO₂ concentrations on
plants, the response of glaciers to climate change, the impact on
mountain ecosystems, the impact of flooding and past global changes.
Much work has been done on sensitivity analysis and, to a lesser
extent, on scenarios. Additional results are expected over the next
one to two years from National Research Programme 31 "Climate Changes
and Natural Disasters".}

^{VII. ADAPTATION MEASURES}

^{55. There is no specific government strategy on
adaptation nor have any adaptation measures yet been taken. However,
with the reinsurance sector playing a pioneering role, several
branches of the Swiss economy are beginning to take the possible
impacts of climate change into consideration in their operations. In
addition, a meeting is being organized by the Swiss Academy of
Sciences' Forum on Global Change on the expected impacts of climate
change and the possible need for adaptation measures in which
stakeholders from the agricultural, insurance, banking and tourism
sectors will participate. With regard to commitments under Article
4.1(e) of the UNFCCC to cooperate in preparing for adaptation, there
are no specific bilateral projects targeting adaptation, in part
because Swiss bilateral aid is provided largely in response to
proposals, and sound proposals on adaptation have not been
forthcoming.}

^{VIII. FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE AND TECHNOLOGY
TRANSFER}

^{56. Swiss ODA amounted to 0.34 per cent of GDP in
1994. Consideration has been given by the Government to achieving a
level of 0.4 per cent in 2000, but current trends make it unlikely
that this objective will be met. Since 1991, ODA has fluctuated
between 0.33 and 0.39 per cent of GDP, and is projected at 0.33 per
cent in the short term. A decision was made in 1991, as part of the
celebrations of the 700th anniversary of the Swiss Confederation, to
create a special fund for international cooperation with developing
countries in the global environmental area, in the amount of Sw F300
million over five years. This special funding was "new and
additional", over and above ongoing assistance flows to developing
countries and countries with economies in transition. Such funding
was utilized for the Swiss contribution to the GEF, for bilateral
cooperation activities, and for the Multilateral Fund for the
Implementation of the Montreal Protocol.}

^{57. In the pilot phase of the GEF, Switzerland made a
contribution of Sw F80 million, about Sw F60 million to the core fund
and about Sw F20 million to cofinance three projects, of which one -
photovoltaics in India - was in the climate change focal area. An
estimated 37 per cent of the GEF funding for the pilot phase was
committed to activities in the climate change focal area. The Swiss
contribution to the first replenishment of the restructured GEF was
Sw F64 million in three years. As the special funding agreed in 1991
is fully committed, it is possible that a new frame-credit will be
proposed in order to continue Swiss contributions to the GEF. Out of
the Sw F300 million in the special fund, Sw F156 million served the
needs of bilateral cooperation, 28 per cent of which (Sw F43 million)
were dedicated to climate-change-related projects.}

^{58. Information contained in the national
communication on Swiss bilateral assistance was confirmed during the
country visit. In addition, information was provided regarding two
applications of solar energy for water desalination in northern
Africa, as well as a study implemented jointly with an Indian
institute regarding structural adjustment and the global environment.
Cooperation projects promoted by the Federal Office of Foreign
Economic Affairs, generally involving the application of Swiss
technology, with financing on commercial or concessional terms, were
also discussed. In bilateral activities relevant to climate change,
emphasis is placed on technologies related to energy efficiency,
renewable sources of energy, such as hydroelectric power and solar
energy, and on capacity building in the forestry
sector.}

^{59. The potential for the Swiss private sector to
engage in AIJ was viewed as limited, as the bulk of Swiss emissions
comes from the transport and residential sectors, which are
characterized by small decentralized sources, rather than from
utilities and industry. Consideration is being given to AIJ involving
the Swiss public sector and countries with economies in transition.
In addition to initiatives for the transfer of technology from
Switzerland to other countries, the Government gave an example of
technology transfer from South to North, referring to a project that
is under way to adapt to Swiss conditions a small biomass power plant
originally developed in India.}

^{60. The team also noted that Switzerland has provided
financial support to the UNFCCC secretariat in the past, and
continues to do so.}

^{IX. RESEARCH AND SYSTEMATIC
OBSERVATION}

^{61. The in-depth review team was satisfied that
recommendations for reporting had been followed. Switzerland's long
tradition in research related to climate change is reflected in the
national communication, including participation in international
efforts. Commitments under Article 5(c) of the Convention concerned
with improving developing countries' endogenous capacities and
capabilities to undertake research and systematic observation have
been explicitly honoured. For instance, one of seven modules of a
major environmental research programme funded by the Swiss National
Science Research Foundation is devoted to promoting research capacity
in developing countries within four thematic areas, some of which are
directly related to climate change. The team noted that programmes
were also under way to build research capacity in countries with
economies in transition. The Swiss National Committee of the
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme has taken the decision to
foster research partnerships in parts of the globe that have been
given relatively little attention, and the Commission on Research
Partnerships with Developing Countries will be holding a major
international meeting in spring 1996 on the subject of "Scientific
Research Partnerships for Sustainable
Development".}

^{X. EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLIC
AWARENESS}

^{62. The national communication describes a number of
government information campaigns that have been carried out using a
variety of media and targeting a range of groups in society. In
addition, the team was informed of a planned project to build up
awareness of climate change among political parties in communes and
cantons.}

^{63. At the international level, at the Second World
Climate Conference Switzerland proposed the creation of an
Information Unit on Climate Change, now the UNEP Information Unit on
Conventions, and was initially the sole country to contribute
funding. Swiss support for the Unit is maintained at Sw F100,000 per
annum.}

^{64. Non-governmental organizations also carry out
public awareness campaigns. Non-governmental actors were consulted in
the drafting of the national communication, and are also involved in
policy formulation, in particular during the consultation phase of
draft federal legislation.}

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1. In accordance with decision 2/CP.1 (see FCCC/CP/1995/7/Add.1), the full draft of this report was communicated to the Swiss Government, which had no further comments.