Distr.
GENERAL
FCCC/CP/1996/12/Add.1
27 June 1996
Original: ENGLISH
CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES
Second session
Geneva, 8-19 July 1996
Item 5 (a) of the provisional agenda
AND OF DECISIONS OF THE FIRST SESSION OF THECONFERENCE OF
THE PARTIES
Paragraphs Page
Explanatory notes 4
I. INTRODUCTION 1-11 5
A. Background 1-2 5
B. Approach to the document 3-11 5
II. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 12-26 7
GE.96-
Paragraphs Page
III. INVENTORIES OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS
AND REMOVALS IN 1990 27-57 11
A. Presentation of results 27-36 11
B. Methodological issues 37-49 15
C. Summary conclusions 50-57 20
IV. POLICIES AND MEASURES TO LIMIT ANTHROPOGENIC
EMISSIONS AND PROTECT AND ENHANCE SINKS AND
RESERVOIRS OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND THEIR
SPECIFIC EFFECTS 58-150 21
A. Approach to the review of policies and
measures 58-62 21
B. Analysis of trends in policies and measures
by sector 63-145 22
C. Summary conclusions 146-150 43
V. PROJECTIONS AND OVERALL EFFECTS OF POLICIES
AND MEASURES 151-191 44
A. Introduction 151-153 44
B. Approaches used and methodological issues 154-165 45
C. Projected anthropogenic emissions and removals
in 2000 166-171 48
D. Estimate of the total effects of policies and measures on
greenhouse gas emissions and removals 172-178 50
E. Summary conclusions 179-191 52
VI. FINANCE, TECHNOLOGY AND CAPACITY BUILDING 192-222
55
A. Financial mechanism 194-202 56
B. Financial resources transferred through bilateral,
regional and multilateral channels 203-206 59
C. Transfer of technology 207-212 61
D. Capacity building 213 62
E. Adaptation 214-215 62
F. Assistance to countries with economies in transition 216-217 63
G. Summary conclusions 218-222 63
Paragraphs Page
VII. IMPLEMENTATION OF OTHER COMMITMENTS AND
RELATED ISSUES 223-251 64
A. Expected impacts of climate change, vulnerability
assessment and adaptation 223-230 64
B. Research and systematic observation 231-239 66
C. Education, training and public awareness 240-246 67
D. Integrating climate change considerations into policies
and the identification and review of policies and measures
leading to greater levels of emissions 247-249 69
E. Other issues 250-251 69
Annex. National GHG emission targets 71-73
References to "guidelines" are to the "Guidelines for the preparation of first communications by Annex I Parties", document A/AC.237/55, annex I, decision 9/2.
References to "IPCC Guidelines" are to the Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories drawn up by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
References to "dollars" ($) indicate United States
dollars.
The following ISO country codes have been used:
Party |
Country code |
Party |
Country code |
Australia |
AUS |
Latvia |
LAT |
Austria |
AUT |
Liechtenstein |
LIE |
Belgium |
BEL |
Luxembourg |
LUX |
Bulgaria |
BUL |
Monaco |
MON |
Canada |
CAN |
Netherlands |
NLD |
Czech Republic |
CZE |
New Zealand |
NZL |
Denmark |
DNK |
Norway |
NOR |
Estonia |
EST |
Poland |
POL |
Finland |
FIN |
Portugal |
POR |
France |
FRA |
Romania |
ROM |
Germany |
DEU |
Russian Federation |
RUS |
Greece |
GRE |
Slovakia |
SLO |
Hungary |
HUN |
Spain |
ESP |
Iceland |
ICE |
Sweden |
SWE |
Ireland |
IRE |
Switzerland |
CHE |
Italy |
ITA |
United Kingdom |
GBR |
Japan |
JPN |
United States |
USA |
The following chemical symbols have been used:
CF4 tetrafluoromethane
CFCs chlorofluorocarbons
C2F6 hexafluoroethane
CH4 methane
CO carbon monoxide
CO2 carbon dioxide
HCFCs hydrochlorofluorocarbons
HFCs hydrofluorocarbons
N2O nitrous oxide
NOx nitrogen oxides
NMVOCs non-methane volatile organic compounds
PFCs perfluorocarbons
SF6 sulphur hexafluoride
VOCs volatile organic compounds
The following units of weight have been used:
Gg gigagram (109 grams)
Mt megatonne (106 tonnes)
1. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
requires each Party included in Annex I to submit, within six months
of the entry into force of the Convention for it, information as
specified in Articles 4.2(b) and 12. The Conference of the Parties at
its first session (COP 1) decided (see decision
3/CP.1)(1) that, until further review,
the guidelines for the preparation of first communications by Annex I
Parties ("the guidelines") developed by the Intergovernmental
Negotiating Committee (see A/AC.237/55, annex I, decision 9/2) should
continue to be used by Annex I Parties.
2. COP 1, by its decision 2/CP.1, requested the secretariat to
prepare, for consideration by the subsidiary bodies and by the
Conference of the Parties at its second session (COP 2), a second
compilation and synthesis of first national
communications(2), taking into account
available review reports. The secretariat accordingly prepared the
elements of the second compilation and synthesis report (see
FCCC/SB/1996/1 and Add.1). The Subsidiary Body for Scientific and
Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for
Implementation (SBI) at their second sessions, endorsed the proposed
outline and approaches to be taken in carrying out the second
compilation and synthesis of first national communications (see
FCCC/SBSTA/1996/8, para.52).
3. The second compilation and synthesis of first national
communications from Annex I Parties consists of three parts: the
executive summary (FCCC/CP/1996/12), the main report (this document)
and the tables of inventories of anthropogenic emissions and removals
and projections for 2000 (FCCC/CP/1996/12/Add.2).
4. The second compilation and synthesis report on first national
communications covers 31 Annex I Parties which submitted their
national communications by 1 May 1996, that is, all Annex I Parties
except Belgium(3), the European
Community(4) and
Lithuania(5), plus Liechtenstein and
Monaco which, though not listed in Annex I, have also submitted their
communications. Belarus, Turkey and Ukraine, although included in
Annex I, have not yet ratified or acceded to the Convention. The
first compilation and synthesis report (see A/AC.237/81) presented
information contained in national communications from 15 Annex I
Parties.
5. This report also draws upon in-depth reviews (IDRs) of
communications from 21 Annex I Parties undertaken by international
teams of experts and coordinated by the secretariat. The main results
and findings of the in-depth reviews are incorporated into the text
of this report where appropriate, thus responding to the request made
by the SBSTA at its first session that a synthesis of in-depth
reviews be presented for its consideration at a later session and
transmission to COP 2 (see FCCC/SBSTA/1995/3). Details regarding the
due dates, submission and receipt of the national communications can
be found in document FCCC/CP/1996/13.
6. This compilation and synthesis report provides an overview of
the implementation of the Convention by the
Parties(6) that have provided
information through national communications and IDRs, noting trends
and patterns, areas of convergence or divergence, data gaps and other
findings, including the overall effects of policies and measures. The
document generally follows the outline and structure of the first
compilation and synthesis report.
7. A number of suggestions for revisions to the guidelines for the
preparation of national communications aimed at making them more
consistent, transparent and comparable, based on submissions from
Parties and the experience from the review process, are included in
document FCCC/SBSTA/1996/9; some methodological issues are discussed
in addenda (FCCC/SBSTA/1996/9/Add.1 and Add.2) to that document. An
overview of the review process, as well as suggestions for the
schedule of submission of national communications, are included in
document FCCC/CP/1996/13.
8. In accordance with decision 2/CP.1, the second compilation and
synthesis report includes, as appropriate, the names of Parties in
the narrative text, bearing in mind the facilitative and
non-confrontational nature of the process. For the sake of
conciseness, Parties are referred to in the text, using the
three-letter ISO country codes (see explanatory notes above); full
country names are also used occasionally. When referred to in
examples Parties are listed in the English alphabetical order of
their country codes.
9. In order to make this report more readable the main body
contains narrative text with graphs and illustrative tables, whereas
technical data, such as inventory and projections tables on which the
above visual materials are based, are included in document
FCCC/CP/1996/12/Add.2.
10. The work undertaken in preparing the present document has
resulted in the updating of existing databases and in the generation
of a substantial amount of background documentation on climate change
policies, such as energy efficiency and transportation policies, and
the situation in countries with economies in transition (EITs). Some
of this documentation would merit wider dissemination and
publication, e.g. in the form of a series of technical
papers.
11. The national communications total over 3,000 pages, not
including additional information made available to review teams
during the in-depth reviews. This additional information represented
several thousand pages for each Party reviewed, so only a small
fraction of it made its way into the in-depth review reports and the
present document. The secretariat takes full responsibility for the
content of this report and acknowledges that some mistakes may have
crept in owing to the large amount of information that had to be
processed in a limited period of time. It would be grateful if
Parties could draw its attention to any such mistakes so that the
necessary corrections can be made at a later stage.
12. In accordance with the reporting guidelines, all 33 national
communications submitted by Parties contain a description of the
national circumstances in which current and planned activities take
place pertaining to the implementation of the Convention. The
description of these circumstances offers a wide range of information
and varies widely among reporting Parties as to their scope, focus
and level of detail. These national circumstances form the basis upon
which climate change activities are currently being formulated and
implemented. Although these circumstances should not be seen as
justifying the varying degree to which the various Convention
commitments are met, they greatly improve the understanding of the
approaches followed by each Party, the extent to which policies and
measures are or can be implemented, in which sectors of the economy
they are most effectively introduced and the types of policy
instrument used. The differing national circumstances influence each
Party's scope for action and the associated costs and
benefits.
13. The description of country-specific circumstances has been
considerably enriched through the process of in-depth reviews. Each
in-depth review report has attempted to reflect, to the best of the
review teams' knowledge, the challenges faced and constraints
encountered by Parties in their climate change programmes. In-depth
reviews have attempted to understand the different policy options and
projection scenarios based on a careful consideration of the national
circumstances of reporting Parties. Also, in the in-depth analysis of
different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission profiles, the reviews have
increased knowledge about the national circumstances which determined
such profiles.
14. Important factors for any country are its natural endowments
and the physical characteristics of its territory. Descriptions of
national circumstances did not always refer to the full area of the
Party's territory either because parts of territory have been
excluded upon ratification or accession to the Convention, or have
not been considered for other reasons. Typically, natural endowments
determine a country's share in international energy markets, the
energy mix used for electricity production, heating and transport,
energy production profiles, etc. A country's energy demand is related
to its economy, its land area, its latitude and climatic conditions.
Among Parties one can observe a wide range of starting points
regarding natural endowments, from Parties highly dependent on energy
imports to major exporters of coal, natural gas and electricity, from
Parties highly dependent on hydro and nuclear energy to Parties which
rely mainly on fossil fuels.
15. Key determining factors in energy demand are the degree of
complexity of a country's economy and the consumption patterns of its
population. The living standards of the population, its size and
density, its growth rates and dispersion in the national territory
and its economic welfare relate to energy needs in any given economy.
These needs define a country's emission profiles depending on the
energy intensity in national economic activity, dependence on energy
imports and/or on export of energy-intensive goods, composition of
economic sectors and transport infrastructure. The overall structure
of the economy and a country's energy profile usually indicate which
are the largest and fastest growing sources of greenhouse gases. For
reporting Parties, the energy production and transformation and
transport sectors are the largest source of CO2 emissions.
These Parties do differ in terms of their domestic energy supply and
demand, their access to energy markets and the extent to which they
use or have the potential for renewable and non-fossil energy
sources, as well as for energy efficiency and conservation
programmes.
16. Major differences in energy pricing across Parties are also a
determinant in explaining the differing energy demand levels and,
consequently, emission levels in the various sectors of their
economies. There have been significant differences in current and
historical prices of energy commodities in these Parties. Energy
pricing policies and associated subsidies have been decisive for the
feasibility of energy efficiency measures, as well as for the
adoption of more ambitious mitigation measures.
17. The agricultural and waste sectors, their share in national
income and technological development tend to determine CH4
and N2O emissions in reporting Parties. The share of these
sectors in the economy also varies considerably among reporting
Parties, although they are consistently less significant than in the
developing world. While some Parties are largely self-sufficient in
agriculture, other Parties rely heavily on imports.
18. In several Parties most of the economically and
environmentally viable hydropower potential has been developed over
the last decades. While this development may continue in a few of
them, in other Parties the hydro and/or nuclear options are becoming
less viable, increasing the dependency of these Parties on carbon
intensive energy sources. For several Parties the enhancement of
sinks, in particular forests, is an important part of their efforts
aimed at reducing total net emissions. For some Parties, enhancing
sink capacities seems more viable than the adoption of mitigation
measures, while other Parties do not emphasize sink enhancement in
their climate change programmes. Many Parties have protected
considerable forest areas from economic utilization, and some
implement programmes to protect these carbon reservoirs from
anthropogenic degradation.
19. Equally important to the understanding of a country's climate
change activities is a description of policy instruments available to
the governments as a function of constitutional powers accorded to
central and state governments. Political systems also influence a
country's approach to mitigation and implementation of policies and
measures. In some federal systems, the central government has only
limited control over natural resource use, implementation of energy
or transport policies, the levying of energy taxes, the
administration of regulatory instruments, etc. In some Parties
climate change policies have to be mutually agreed by central and
provincial or state governments before funding is allocated. The
in-depth review process is especially helpful for understanding the
constraints and approaches used by those Parties in which provinces
and states play an independent role in national policy-making. The
institutional framework of each government and the level of
independence of its agencies or ministries are also important factors
related to climate change policies and measures. In many reporting
Parties inter-ministerial committees have been established to support
coordination and monitoring of such measures. In these Parties this
is seen as an important step towards the integration of climate
change considerations into economic and energy policies.
20. During the in-depth review process it has become apparent that
the level of public awareness about climate change and about major
sources of GHG emissions varies considerably across Parties. While in
some countries, interest groups are actively involved in climate
change policy-making and related international negotiations, in other
Parties climate change is still perceived as a vague environmental
problem. In many cases, climate change concerns are not yet
integrated in decisions affecting the economy as a whole and
consumption patterns of the population.
21. In all EIT country Parties the transition to market economies
has been characterized by deep economic crisis, the collapse of
traditional foreign markets and a sharp decrease in domestic
consumption and industrial output, resulting in drastic drops (up to
40 per cent) in gross domestic product (GDP). As an important
consequence of this economic restructuring process, GHG emissions
have decreased significantly compared to the period before the
crisis.
22. The EIT countries have been characterized by a high share of
industry in national income, with a resulting high energy intensity
level per unit of output and high dependence on energy imports or on
indigenous fossil fuel resources. These circumstances have defined
their GHG emission profiles, as well as their choice of the most
appropriate, efficient and cost-effective policies and measures to
mitigate climate change. The Russian Federation is a special case in
this regard, owing to its role as one of the world's largest energy
exporters. Governments in many of these countries promote energy
efficiency in order to decrease dependence on imported fuel and
enhance energy security, but the profound structural changes in their
energy and industrial sectors there are still large potentials for
improvements in energy efficiency.
23. In-depth review reports on EIT countries have tried to capture
the specific challenges faced by this group of Parties in view of the
economic recovery experienced by some in recent years. In virtually
all EIT countries a process of price liberalization and the
establishment of energy prices consistent with international market
prices (often by eliminating subsidies) has been an inherent part of
the transitional process. The primary targets of this process have
been the rationalization of energy resource use and the promotion of
energy efficiency, while meeting basic social needs. Linked with
important social changes, which include changes in lifestyle and in
the range of private sector activities, new environmental legislation
has been introduced in EIT countries. Enhancement of this legislation
in EIT countries and its reinforcement has been reported as an
important contribution to their mitigation policies.
24. Based on their specific national circumstances and commitments with respect to their population and to the international community, several Parties have established their own national targets, not all equally binding. These national targets are summarized in table 3 at the end of this document.
25. Overall, national communications and their in-depth reviews
reveal a growing consensus that climate change causes are
intrinsically related to energy policies and that gains in energy
efficiency make sense in economic terms while also improving a
country's emissions profile. As economies overcome recession, climate
change concerns, together with improvements in energy efficiency and
more rational use of national resources, are gradually being
considered in conjunction with more strategic issues such as national
energy security and diversification in supply sources.
26. The wide range of national circumstances can be illustrated by
considering CO2. Figure 1, in which per capita
CO2 emissions are plotted against CO2 emissions
per unit of GDP, gives such an illustration. Low CO2
emissions per unit of GDP with high emissions per capita may indicate
high energy efficiency and consumption levels. High emissions per
unit of GDP with high emissions per capita may reflect inefficient
use of fossil fuels and/or a high share of fossil fuels, in
particular coal, in the energy mix. Low emissions per unit of GDP
with low emissions per capita could mean that the Party has a high
share of hydro or nuclear power in its energy balance (non-fossil
fuel, hydro, nuclear and other sources, from 20 to 63 per cent in
AUT, CHE, FIN, FRA, ICE, LAT, NZL, NOR, SLO,
SWE)(7) while having high living
standards, or that the Party has a relatively small economy compared
with other Annex I economies with the same population size. Relative
"positions" of Parties are also the result of significant differences
in current and historical prices of energy commodities. This figure
suggests that, in spite of major differences in national
circumstances, there are common characteristics for some groups of
Parties, which could be taken into account in developing further
commitments under the Convention.
27. Inventory data for CO2, CH4,
N2O, international bunkers, other GHGs and ozone
precursors for 1990 appear in tables A.1 to A.8 in document
FCCC/CP/1996/12/Add.2. Each table is accompanied by explanatory
footnotes and a brief analytical overview. As a result of the
different ways of reporting used by Parties, it was necessary to
present CO2 emission and removal data from land-use change
and forestry separately; this permits the data to be presented in a
consistent and coherent manner. Tables A.9 and A.10 present
CO2 and CH4 per capita emissions and relative
percentage of fuel type for each reporting Party. Figure A.1 shows
the relative proportions of different greenhouse gases for each
Party, and the aggregate values for all Parties, based on
calculations using global warming potential (GWP) values approved by
the IPCC (1994).
28. All Parties but Monaco (which indicated that emissions other
than CO2 were negligible) presented emission estimates on
a gas-by-gas basis for the three main greenhouse gases,
CO2, CH4 and N2O, as well as the
ozone precursors, CO, NOx and NMVOC. Twelve Parties
provided estimates for PFCs, two for HFCs (reflecting the fact that
these substances were generally introduced after 1990 as substitutes
for substances controlled by the Montreal Protocol) and six for
SF6. Twenty Parties presented separate data on emissions
from international bunkers(8) for the
base year, as requested in the guidelines, four of them providing
CO2 emissions only.
29. CO2 was confirmed to be the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas for the reporting Parties, representing 80.7 per cent of total GHG emissions by these Parties. Fuel combustion was reported to be the source of 96.6 per cent of total CO2 emissions (excluding land-use change and forestry), with most of these emissions coming from energy and transformation industries and transport (38.5 and 26.2 per cent, respectively). Percentage distributions of CO2 emissions by source categories are provided in figures 1 and 2. Emissions from bunker fuels on average were equivalent to 2.8 per cent of total CO2 emissions of the Parties reporting them, with the Netherlands having the highest figure of 24 per cent. No removals were reported for gases other than CO2, managed forests accounting for most carbon removal.
Figure 1. Distribution of CO2 emissions by category Figure 2. Distribution of CO2 emissions
(excluding land-use change and forestry) by sub-source
category
30. The guidelines required Parties to use the IPCC Guidelines in
estimating, reporting and verifying inventory data. Twenty-eight
Parties reported their inventory data using the summary table
recommended by the IPCC or similar consistent formats. Hungary and
the Russian Federation (partially) and Liechtenstein, Poland and
Romania presented their 1990 estimates in other formats not
consistent with the IPCC Guidelines. Romania presented only per
capita emissions without disaggregation among different source/sink
categories but, like Poland, also presented estimates for the base
year using the IPCC format.
31. Parties used two basic approaches to calculating emissions from energy consumption: a top-down approach, as described in the IPCC default methodology, and a bottom-up sectoral approach. Sometimes a mixture of both approaches was used. Based on the information available to the secretariat, a predominantly top-down approach was used by 17 Parties, and a bottom-up approach by 16 others. Among the latter group, seven Parties (AUT, ESP, FRA, IRE, ITA, LUX, POR) used the CORINAIR methodology, but presented their inventory data in the IPCC format. Liechtenstein and Poland presented their inventory for 1990 in the CORINAIR format.
32. Twenty-three Parties provided land-use change and forestry
CO2 estimates which encompassed removals. For Australia
and Estonia the emissions for this category were positive, i.e.
corresponding to a CO2 source rather than a sink. Canada,
Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco and
Portugal did not present estimates, but Canada announced that a
detailed study on this subject was almost finished. The majority of
those Parties indicated that the high level of uncertainty was an
obstacle to presenting reliable estimates in their first
communications and that they intended to remedy this in future.
Poland and Romania did not give estimates for 1990, but presented
them for their respective base years. Eight of the 15 Parties whose
inventories were analyzed in the first compilation and synthesis,
updated their land-use change estimates during the in-depth reviews
(and Austria presented estimates for the first time). This highlights
the uncertainties pertaining to emission estimates in this
category.
33. Comparison and aggregation of emissions and removals from
managed forests was made difficult by the level of uncertainty
associated with the estimates and the different ways of reporting
them. Nearly half of the Parties which reported emissions in this
category presented them as net sink values and did not distinguish
emissions from removals. The rest reported emissions (from harvest
and other losses) and sequestration (growth) separately. Different
approaches were used. The IPCC default methodology or similar methods
were followed by 11 Parties. The rest used either their own methods
based mainly on a direct measurement of the net growth of the forest
carbon stock or a variety of yield quantitative models. Some Parties
did not document the methods. The quality and coverage of the
statistical data on forests varied widely among Parties.
34. The largest source of CH4 was fugitive fuel
emissions (37.8 per cent of total methane emissions), followed
by livestock (31.4 per cent) and waste (26.6 per cent).
The share of CH4 fugitive fuel emissions in the EIT
countries (68.6 per cent) was much higher than in the Annex II
countries (23.0 per cent), mainly because of the high
proportion of this type of emissions reported by the Russian
Federation.
Figure 3. Distribution of CH4 (left) and N2O (right) emissions by source and sink category (percentage).
35. The largest source of N2O emissions was agriculture
(fertilizer use), with 42.8 per cent of total emissions of
this gas, followed by industrial processes (30.9 per cent).
The latter figure could be less reliable because eight Parties did
not report emissions in this category and three more Parties provided
only aggregated national N2O emissions. The distribution
of CH4 and N2O emissions by source and sink
categories is presented in figure 3.
36. At the time of writing, 19 Annex I Parties have submitted to the secretariat inventory data for the years subsequent to 1990 (some of the data were reported in national communications), as requested by decision 3/CP.1, although not all of them reported data for 1994. The available data are contained in tables C.1 to C.5.(9) Figure 4 presents relative percentage changes in CO2 emissions for these Parties in comparison to 1990 unadjusted inventory data.
Figure 4. Percentage change in CO2 emissions
inventories (excluding sinks) in 1991-1994 with respect to
1990.
37. In order to ensure transparency, Parties were requested to
provide enough information so that their inventories could be
reconstructed from national activity data, emission factors and other
assumptions. However, the IPCC minimum documentation standards to
ensure transparency in reporting inventory data were not always
followed. Sixteen Parties provided the IPCC standard data tables,
which expedited the comparison of aggregate emission factors and
activity data. For some source/sink categories such as fugitive fuel
emissions, industrial processes, solvents, enteric fermentation,
waste and agricultural soils, this proved to be sufficient
information to ensure transparency. For other categories, the
necessary explanations of methods and data used and the level of
detail at which the estimates were calculated (including descriptions
of intermediary calculations involved) were missing in a majority of
national communications.
38. In general, the more complex methods were less likely to be
fully documented or independently verifiable. Insufficient
documentation also made it difficult to understand if miscalculation,
double-counting, omission or deviation from the IPCC Guidelines had
occurred. This situation was significantly improved by the submission
of additional information by the Parties, especially during the
in-depth reviews. In the opinion of the expert teams which
participated in this exercise, almost all visited Parties were able
to provide full information, allowing verification of data and
reconstruction of inventories, although this material had not been
included in national communications. Still, the teams also noted
substantial differences in both quality and completeness of
inventories from different Parties.
39. Analysis of inventory data indicates that 18 Parties (AUS,
AUT, CAN, CHE, CZE, DEU, DNK, ESP, FIN, GBR, ITA, JPN, LAT, NLD, NOR,
NZL, SWE, USA) provided enough information to reconstruct and assess
their inventory data (with the exception of land-use change and
forestry for some of them). For nine of these Parties (AUS, AUT, CHE,
CZE, DNK, FIN, LAT, NZL, SWE) the information needed to reconstruct
the inventory was made available during the in-depth reviews.
In-depth reviews thus prove to be a valuable source of additional
information, significantly improving transparency and comparability
of inventory data.
40. Data for a majority of emissions were comparable, in particular on a gas-by-gas basis, yet many Parties departed from the guidelines, used different assumptions, defined source/sink categories differently, or omitted gases and/or categories included by other Parties. Some Parties had difficulty in converting other inventories, mainly CORINAIR(10), to the IPCC format but others did so successfully.
41. Two Parties made adjustments to their inventory data. The
Netherlands, in addition to providing actual emission estimates,
adjusted its CO2 emission estimates upwards to take
account of warmer climatic conditions, and presented this adjusted
figure as the working figure. Denmark adjusted its actual emission
estimates for 1990 to take account of electricity imports and
expressed a preference for presenting this figure as the working
figure.
42. Electricity adjustments, if used without precise guidance, may
result in double-counting or miscounting of CO2 emissions
among countries, because the electricity trade often involves several
countries. Other factors complicate the estimation and use of
adjustments, such as differences among GHG emissions from different
forms of electricity production (fossil fuel, hydro or nuclear) and
the variability of electricity trade. Some Parties expressed concern
about this issue and requested guidance to deal with it. In the
relevant tables in this report the unadjusted inventory figures which
were provided by Denmark and the Netherlands are presented alongside
the adjusted ones.
43. Several Parties noted that 1990 had not been a normal climatic
year but did not adjust their inventory data, although for
information purposes Finland, Sweden and the United States presented
adjusted emission estimates either in their national communications
or during the in-depth reviews. France and Switzerland used
temperature-adjusted information for comparison with projection
figures.
44. The degree of completeness of greenhouse gas and precursor
emission inventories varied widely among Parties. More than 90 per
cent of Parties reported GHG emissions for activities where default
IPCC methodologies were available, in particular, total
CO2 emissions from fuel combustion and cement production,
CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation, animal waste and
landfills and N2O from fertilizer use. Reporting of
fugitive CH4 emissions amounted to 84 per cent. Most of
the Parties either used methods other than those recommended by IPCC
or improved the default methodologies to suit their national
conditions.
45. In the land-use change and forestry sector, managed forest net
emissions were reported by 75 per cent of Parties. This figure was
higher for EIT countries (89 per cent). Conversely, the latter's
reporting level for other industrial process emissions, excluding
cement production, was less than 33 per cent, almost half of the
overall level. As default methodologies were not available for any
category of precursor emissions, the reporting level for these was
generally low in a majority of source/sink categories. NMVOC
emissions in the solvent use category were reported by 72 per cent of
Parties.
46. Eighteen Parties provided information on levels of uncertainty
either on a gas-by-gas basis or at the source/sink category level,
among them Australia, Denmark, Finland, New Zealand and Spain, which
did so during the in-depth reviews. Nine Parties (CAN, CHE, ICE, ITA,
JPN, NLD, NOR, POR, SWE) also provided a self-assessment of the
completeness and quality of their inventories using the IPCC
recommended format. Sixteen Parties did not follow the guidelines
relating to the reporting of uncertainties, mentioning only brief
considerations or not mentioning the matter at all.
47. Apart from Sweden and the United Kingdom, Parties did not
explain how the uncertainties were arrived at in national
communications. Only a few Parties presented quantitative information
on uncertainties, but with differing assumptions. During the in-depth
reviews difficulties were often encountered in determining the
precise meaning of the categories "low", "medium" and "high" used in
data quality tables and in understanding how uncertainty levels were
evaluated.
48. Despite variations in the ways of determining confidence
levels for GHG emissions, the qualitative and quantitative
information made available by Parties may be summarized as
follows:
GHG |
|
|
CO2 |
High, except for land-use change where it is low |
Energy and cement production emissions have an error range of up to 10% |
CH4 |
Medium for energy and livestock and low for waste and fugitive fuel emissions |
Medium ranges from 20 to 35% |
N2O |
Medium for energy and industrial emissions and low for agriculture |
Low ranges from > 25% up to two orders of magnitude from the lowest to the highest |
For precursors the confidence level for NOx is high to
medium and for CO and NMVOC medium to low.
49. In terms of CO2 equivalents using 1994 IPCC global
warming potentials (time horizon 100 years) for the dominant gases
CO2, CH4 and N2O, close to 80 per
cent of the emissions can be classified in the highest reliability
category lying within an error range of 10 per cent. If the estimates
for greenhouse gases other than CO2 were more reliable,
this figure would be higher. Several Parties, among them Canada and
Germany, reported that some estimates for CH4 and
N2O emissions were also highly reliable. However,
generally lower confidence levels for CH4 and
N2O emissions, together with the different assumptions
related to evaluation of uncertainties, indicate the importance of
continuing to develop and present quantitative estimates of
uncertainties wherever possible.
50. Pursuant to Articles 4.1(a) and 12.1(a), all reporting Parties
communicated national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by
sources of GHG not controlled by the Montreal Protocol on substances
that Deplete the Ozone Layer. With reference to Article 4.6, four EIT
Parties established a year other than 1990 as the base year for
reporting, but they also provided a 1990 inventory (see also section
VIII.E). The following base years were chosen: Bulgaria 1988, Hungary
1985-1987, Poland 1988 and Romania 1989.
51. CO2 was confirmed as being the most important
anthropogenic GHG for the reporting Parties. Fuel combustion was the
largest source of CO2 emissions, mostly in the energy and
transformation industries and transport. No removals were reported
for gases other than CO2, managed forests accounting for
most carbon removal. The largest source of CH4 emissions
was fugitive fuel emissions, followed by livestock and waste. The
largest source of N2O emissions was agriculture
(fertilizer use), followed by industrial processes, although the
reporting level for this category was low.
52. Information provided by Parties about uncertainties in
emission estimates demonstrated that estimates for most GHGs (in
terms of global warming effects) have a high degree of reliability,
despite the lower confidence levels for CH4 and
N2O emissions, thus providing a solid basis for
implementing climate change policies and monitoring the effects of
measures. Nevertheless, quantitative estimates of uncertainties
should be further improved wherever possible.
53. The degree of confidence associated with CO2 data, in particular for fuel combustion, is high and the estimates are consistent with other authoritative sources of information. In spite of that, some inconsistencies and difficulties in aggregating and comparing inventory data have arisen, owing to different definitions being used for source/sink categories and different assumptions made, and gases and/or categories included by some Parties being omitted by others, many of which departed from the guidelines. The technical analysis of inventories, based on national communications, supporting material and in-depth reviews revealed information gaps. Adjustments in inventories used by some Parties were a factor complicating comparability, consistency and transparency of the emission estimates. Suggestions on treating this issue are presented in document FCCC/SBSTA/1996/9/Add.1.
54. The analysis of inventory data demonstrated that more than 90
per cent of Parties reported GHG emissions for those activities where
default IPCC methodologies were available, although the majority of
Parties either used other methods or improved the default
methodologies to suit their national conditions. This analysis
highlights the importance of improving default methodologies and
developing new ones for additional important sources or
sinks.
55. During the preparation of both the first and second
compilation and synthesis reports and the in-depth reviews, Parties
showed a willingness to provide additional supporting data and made
substantial efforts to improve the quality of their inventories.
Problems of insufficient transparency as well as methodological
problems mainly proved to be due to a lack of experience in preparing
inventory data and imperfections in the guidelines.
56. In general, almost all the problems identified during the
review of Annex I Party inventories can be solved by applying the
current state of the art in preparing and reporting GHG inventories.
The land-use change and forestry source category is an exception
which requires more scientific work to overcome existing
difficulties.
57. It is recognized that the review and synthesis of inventories
was facilitated by the existence of the guidelines, which Parties
made considerable efforts to follow in communicating inventory data.
Substantial progress was made especially during the in-depth reviews,
in understanding the problems of inventory reporting and in
identifying areas for further work. With further improvements in the
guidelines and reporting, more comprehensive, comparable and
consistent national inventory data could be obtained.
58. All reporting Parties provided a description of the policies
and measures they have adopted to implement their commitments under
Article 4.2(a) and (b). The presentations varied significantly from
Party to Party both in detail and approach, illustrating the diverse
contexts in which policies and measures are implemented and the
difficulties of presenting them in a way that is comparable to other
countries. The guidelines request that, to facilitate transparency,
enough detail should be provided about each policy and measure,
including its objective in terms of the gas and sector targeted; the
type of policy instrument used; its status of implementation; how it
is expected to function and interact with other measures; and
indicators of progress.
59. In order to present the results of analysis of policies and
measures in a more informative and useful way, and taking into
account suggestions made by Parties during the second sessions of the
SBSTA and the SBI, discussion highlights commonly used measures
and/or those which are promising in the opinion of Parties or review
teams rather than describing the full range of measures mentioned by
Parties in their national communications. The presentation of
policies and measures unavoidably presupposes a certain degree of
subjectivity in presenting examples or lists of actions taken by
Parties. This task was further complicated by the large number of
measures (more than 1200 individual measures were identified and
entered into the database) and their differing nature - from
nation-wide programmes to actions by local communities. The fact that
some policies or measures are not reflected in this document does not
imply any judgment on their respective merits but is due to the
necessity to limit the synthesis to a manageable size.
60. In the conclusions adopted at its second session, the SBSTA,
inter alia, requested the secretariat to explore ways to use
tables in the compilation of policies and measures (see
FCCC/SBSTA/1996/8, para.52). The heterogeneous character of
information on policies and measures and the lack of a uniform
structured approach to its presentation in both national
communications and supplementary documentation made available during
the in-depth reviews precluded presentation of this information in
tabular form. Suggestions for revised guidelines are contained in
document FCCC/SBSTA/1996/9.
61. All Parties specifically targeted CO2 emissions but
GHGs other than CO2 were also subject to a wide range of
measures aimed at reducing emissions. A substantial number of
measures are at the implementation stage with their effects expected
in the medium to long term. For example, development and
implementation of new and renewable energy sources (for example,
biomass, geothermal, wind, solar energy) are often seen as important
and promoted by various means, but only in a few countries do
non-hydro renewables exceed 10 per cent of the present energy
balance.
62. The choice of the type of policy instrument was generally
related to national circumstances, such as political structure,
overall economic situation, the organization of the energy sector or
social considerations. They were implemented by both state and local
governments, as well as the private sector. The IDRs confirmed a
tendency to prefer policies that put limited burdens on public
budgets, and in some cases even improved their balance.
63. In this section, policies and measures reported are presented
on a sectoral basis. For the sectors information is provided
on:
(a) The main gases addressed in the sector;
(b) The main aims of the policies and measures, the main policies
and measures identified and the types of policy instruments
used;
(c) An assessment, where possible, of the relative contribution of
measures in individual sectors vis-à-vis the overall
emissions reduction efforts of Parties.
64. Many measures aim to achieve multiple policy objectives. For
example, improved energy efficiency is an approach pursued in most
sectors and all of the national communications indicate that it is a
primary means of reducing emissions while improving economic
efficiency and energy security. Cross-sectoral measures are used in
conjunction with a variety of policy instruments to strengthen the
interaction between the measures.
65. The majority of Parties reported taxing energy - a
policy tool which has been used for many years primarily to raise
revenue, rather than for climate-related purposes, or to internalize
some externalities. At national and often regional level the scope
and level of energy prices and taxes vary considerably depending on
fuel mixes and other variables. Broadly, prices and the level of
taxes on fuels vis-à-vis their carbon content often
indicate an inverse relationship, with the most carbon-intensive
fuels at lower levels and subsidized in some cases.
66. In recent years, some Parties have implemented tax schemes to
reflect the carbon content of some or all fuels. Additionally, as a
number of countries indicated in their communications,
carbon/energy taxes could be part of their basket of policies
and measures, if the taxes were adopted at an international level to
avoid competitiveness concerns. The principal objective of
carbon/energy taxes is to improve energy efficiency, in particular
for fossil fuel, and consequently to limit or reduce emissions of
greenhouse gases and other pollutants. Five Parties (DNK, FIN, NLD,
NOR, SWE) have instituted carbon/energy taxes, while several others
have considered doing so but subsequently rejected or deferred the
matter. A number of national communications from members of the
European Community refer to proposals for a carbon/energy tax that
have been under consideration since 1992.
67. For the Parties that have introduced carbon/energy taxes a
number of observations can be made. Carbon/energy taxes apply to the
use of fossil fuels mostly in primary production and/or at end-use
consumption. Although uniform rates for all emissions are seen as
being cost-effective, rates for various fuels are applied at
differing levels in the various sectors, with exemptions for some
uses and some fuels. In some countries that have a carbon/energy tax,
revenues are redistributed to reduce income tax and business
contributions to social security, or to fund energy efficiency
improvements through investment grants. In others revenues go to the
general government budget and may thus offset other taxes ("greening
the tax burden"). In general, carbon/energy taxes:
(a) Are part of a package of measures to achieve emission reductions;
(b) Have been part of structural tax reform;
(c) Do not apply to all uses of energy that produce CO2 emissions in the same way on a per unit of energy or a per ton of CO2 basis;
(d) Do not apply to energy-intensive industries, including non-energy emissions, and others (international bunkers) due to international competitiveness and trade concerns;
(e) Afford special treatment for electricity which is generally
taxed as such, not via CO2 taxes, but there are exemptions
for preferred fuels or technology.
68. The projected effects of the carbon/energy taxes implemented
to date are difficult to isolate from the effects of other policies
and measures targeted at energy use. As is the case with many
measures related to energy use in the various sectors, the
effectiveness of carbon/energy taxes is intertwined with the rate of
capital stock turnover and technological change. Several Parties,
however, have estimated the effects of carbon/energy tax schemes:
Denmark expects that the tax scheme in combination with other
measures such as subsidies for energy efficiency improvements could
bring about a 4.7 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions from
1988 levels in 2000; the Netherlands expects that their regulatory
energy tax introduced on 1 January 1996 will reduce total
CO2 emissions by about 1.5 per cent in 2000. Sweden
expects that changes in taxes will account for up to 70 per cent of
expected total reductions (of 14 per cent compared to a baseline)
from all programmes.
69. In addition to economic instruments and regulatory measures,
most Parties include voluntary approaches in their climate
change strategies on a sector-specific, e.g. energy-intensive
industries, and on a cross-sectoral basis. Voluntary approaches seem
to be attractive to policy makers as a low-cost flexible tool for
achieving reductions in GHG emissions. Cost-effective responses may
result but specific estimates were difficult to obtain, in
particular, since few countries have experience with the instrument
over time. The communications indicate that the majority of voluntary
agreements focus on improved energy efficiency, reduced
CO2 emissions and are targeted on the industrial sector.
Voluntary agreements to reduce emissions of non-CO2 gases
are being developed by some Parties. The approach is also employed in
the energy transformation, residential/commercial, agriculture and,
increasingly, transport sectors.
70. Voluntary is a relative term in the context of climate-related
policies and measures. As reported in the national communications and
in-depth review reports, voluntary approaches vary considerably in
their structure and approach from Party to Party and within Parties.
As a policy instrument, they range from relatively informal
statements of intent to highly structured agreements with commitments
both from the government and the other side. Characteristics of the
voluntary approaches tend to reflect the objectives of the programme:
if the strategy is basically "no regrets", then the structure tends
to be supple in order to encourage wide participation; whereas if the
objectives or targets call for efforts beyond "business-as-usual",
then the agreements tend to be more structured, some with enforcement
elements.
71. Voluntary approaches in other Parties (e.g. CAN, GBR, JPN,
USA) tend to be less rigidly structured with more emphasis on wide
participation and an incentive structure based on public recognition,
rather than on a legal basis. These voluntary agreements take the
form of energy efficiency and CO2 reduction measures with
industry, public authorities and manufacturing associations, and they
contain various forms of corporate commitments. Self-monitoring and
reporting with no enforcement characterize these voluntary
approaches. For example, voluntary agreements with vehicle
manufacturers in Germany and Japan define targets for improving fuel
efficiency globally for the new vehicle fleet of a specific weight
category, without specifying how they are to be met. Manufacturers
are obliged to apply mandatory labelling for fuel consumption in
Japan, while German manufacturers must monitor and report average
fuel efficiency data to the federal Government.
72. Falling somewhere in between these two ranges are the
voluntary agreements in industry, as exemplified in Germany and New
Zealand where subsector targets have been set on an energy efficiency
or CO2 emissions basis. The agreements are not legally
binding and there are no penalties for underachievement. In both of
these examples as well as in some other Parties, there is a strong
governmental warning that additional regulatory or tax measures will
be implemented if the results of the voluntary measures appear to be
inadequate.
73. During the IDRs the teams often noted that voluntary
approaches have limitations, since their success depends upon the
participation, targets, and evaluation. Effective monitoring and
reporting are essential to determine the changes in energy use or
reductions in emissions resulting from the initiatives. Other
important characteristics include the time-frame, enforcement and
rewards. Several Parties have or are developing multi-sectoral
reporting of emissions in association with voluntary agreements (e.g.
AUS, CHE, NLD).
74. The IDRs demonstrated that, with some exceptions, voluntary
agreements were in the early stages, so it was not always possible to
make valid observations about their projected effectiveness. As there
is much diversity in the structure of voluntary agreements and in the
economic and political context in which they function, drawing
parallels from this heterogeneous group of measures was difficult.
Overall, a common theme is that voluntary approaches are an outcome
of concerns that climate change objectives will not be reached
without additional innovative, consensus-building approaches which
have the active support of programme participants in partnership-type
undertakings that go beyond traditional regulatory
approaches.
75. Other overarching, cross-sectoral measures reported by Parties
often included research and development, and information and
education. These are discussed in more detail in sectoral sections
where appropriate.
76. The energy and transformation sector includes activities
related to the production of energy, transformation of primary energy
to secondary forms such as electricity generation and crude oil
refining, and distribution to end-users. This sector contributed
38 per cent of total CO2 emissions from Annex I
Parties in 1990, with the proportion of CO2 emissions in
individual Parties ranging from 0.3 per cent (ICE) to more than 70
per cent in some EIT Parties. Many Parties noted that the energy
supply and transformation sector is their largest emissions source.
The majority of GHG emissions are CO2 from burning fossil
fuel to produce electricity. Some Parties also have significant
amounts of emissions from the production and transport of fossil
fuels. CH4 is emitted during the production and, in
particular, distribution of natural gas, and small amounts of
N2O and precursors are produced from burning fossil
fuels.
77. Policy objectives emphasized by many Parties were fuel
switching to low- or no-carbon fuels for electricity generation,
improved efficiency in end-use through actions by the supply industry
to influence demand, and improved efficiency in the conversion and
distribution of energy. Measures in this sector were reported by the
majority of Parties and most frequently were directed at
CO2 emissions from electricity generation.
78. Among the most effective measures, Parties mentioned
regulatory reform to promote competition in energy supply and
distribution, removal of subsidies on coal, extending natural gas and
district heating networks, time-of-day or seasonal electricity
pricing, building nuclear power plants, and as a measure that could
have large potential in the longer term, research on renewable
energy. Among the most often implemented measures, Parties
reported financial incentives (such as government funding or
subsidies for district heating, and electricity tariff reform),
research and development and economic incentives for renewable
energy, and demand side management by utilities.
79. Measures chosen by different Parties depended to a large
degree on the structure of their energy markets, regulatory systems,
endowments of natural resources, and the fuels used for electricity
generation. Parties with little or no fossil fuel based electricity
generation (e.g. FRA, ICE, NLD, NOR, SWE) reported that reductions in
emissions were difficult in this area, whereas Parties with large
amounts of coal or lignite in the fuel mix reported that measures in
this sector were very important and effective (e.g. CZE, ESP, GBR,
GRE, POL). Parties with significant centralized district heating
noted a range of measures to improve the efficiency of heat
distribution or to switch to low- or no-carbon fuels.
80. Structural and regulatory reforms were reported by some
Parties as being a promising approach to reducing GHG emissions,
though emission reduction was not the primary purpose of the reforms.
In addition to improving economic efficiency, Parties reported that
energy market reforms can facilitate energy supply from independent
gas-fired and renewable electricity producers and provide incentives
for more efficient use of resources. The communications and IDRs
confirmed the trend to deregulate and enhance competition in the
energy markets, but it was often emphasized that the long-term
effects on emissions were uncertain and would depend on the
regulatory regime within new market structures (e.g. AUS, DEU, ESP,
GBR, NLD, NOR, NZL, SWE, USA).
81. The envisaged development of Nordic and Europe-wide
electricity and gas markets was noted as having large potential for
significant reductions in emissions (DEU, NOR), and the potential for
CO2 reductions through electricity trade was emphasized
(FRA). It was also noted that although integration of electricity
markets could work well with other programmes to reduce
CO2 emissions, it could also put greater restrictions on
unilateral action and lead to emissions rising in countries where
electricity is produced for export (SWE). The IDRs indicated that
there is a general uncertainty related to the structural development
of this sector, and consequently to its emissions, where deregulation
could contribute to shifts in investment patterns and fuel choices,
as well as day-to-day operating procedures.
82. Fuel switching, in particular increasing the use of
natural gas, was emphasized by Parties with large shares of
fossil fuel in their electricity fuel mix as having tremendous
potential to reduce emissions if used to replace coal (e.g. ESP, GBR,
GRE). Removing subsidies was also noted as being a very
important policy option (e.g. POL, SLO). Other economic instruments
used to promote natural gas are pricing policies favouring
gas, and subsidies for conversion of coal-fired plants to
natural gas (e.g. DNK, JPN). Direct government funding and
low interest loans were also used to extend the natural gas
infrastructure (e.g. ESP, GRE, IRE, ITA, JPN), and to build gas-fired
capacity (e.g. GRE, HUN). Regulations and guidelines to promote
the use of natural gas are reported to convert coal plants to gas
(e.g. DNK), to set emission limits on gases such as NOx,
SO2 and CO that encourage a shift from coal to gas (e.g.
CZE, USA), as well as to ensure that independent power producers have
access to grids (e.g. AUS, GBR, USA).
83. EIT Parties reported that one of the most effective mitigation
policies is to increase the share of natural gas in primary energy
supply. The Russian Federation expects substantial increases in
the proportion of natural gas in the primary energy balance, whereas
the Czech Republic and Bulgaria reported several programmes for fuel
switching and extension of natural gas supply networks.
84. Although renewable energy is recognized as being
competitive in niche markets or at favourable sites, many Parties
noted that the contribution of renewables, except for large-scale
hydro schemes, is likely to remain small for some time. Reasons given
were that many forms of renewables are still more expensive than
fossil fuels, and other barriers to broader use of renewables remain.
Government funding, and often industry funding as well, is used by
practically all the Parties for research, development and
demonstration of renewable energy technology. An innovative measure
reported was government co-ordination assistance to facilitate
collective purchases of renewable technology by utilities (USA). A
wide range of economic instruments are used to promote renewables
that are already competitive or are close to being so, such as solar,
wind, biomass and geothermal energy. Tax incentives such as
accelerated depreciation, exemption from income tax, and lower energy
taxes for renewables are also used (e.g. AUS, CZE, ESP, GRE,
JPN).
85. Nuclear energy is emphasized by some Parties as having
great emission reduction potential (e.g. BUL, CZE, FRA, RUS, SLO).
Investment in new nuclear plant, often as an alternative to coal,
were also mentioned (e.g. BUL, CZE, FRA, JPN, RUS, SLO). Some Parties
reported that they have made commitments to phase out nuclear power
(e.g. SWE) or that nuclear power was not an option because of
environmental and safety concerns (e.g. AUS, AUT, IRE, NZL). Four EIT
Parties (BUL, CZE, RUS, SLO) explicitly consider nuclear power as an
option to mitigate emissions. In the Czech Republic nuclear power
will replace electricity produced by coal-fired plants that do not
meet new environmental regulations. The impact is an estimated
reduction of 11,300 Gg of CO2, about 7 per cent of 1990
emissions. In Bulgaria, new nuclear units are expected to replace old
ones and the projected effect is a saving of 9,000 Gg CO2.
It was noted, however, that the acceptability of the nuclear option
is uncertain.
86. The importance of giving demand-side measures equal weight
with energy supply investment was noted by several Parties.
Demand-side management (e.g. information, funding for energy
efficiency investments, buy-back of old appliances) and integrated
resource planning are commonly implemented through voluntary
agreements with utilities or even initiated by utilities themselves
(e.g. AUS, CAN, DNK, FRA, JPN, NLD, SLO, USA). Regulations are
sometimes used, for example, to require utilities to implement
cost-effective demand-side projects (USA) or to require utilities to
explore demand-side potential in power planning. Some governments
changed regulations to allow utilities to recover the cost of
demand-side projects through energy tariffs or placed a surcharge on
energy (e.g. GBR, NLD, USA). Some Parties noted (especially during
the IDRs) that demand-side initiatives were not necessarily seen as
relevant by the participants in competitive energy markets, because
other bodies (information centres, etc.) could provide the same
services.
87. Electricity tariff reform to allow or require
time-of-day and seasonal pricing was reported by many Parties as a
way of reducing peak demand (e.g. AUT, FRA, ITA, JPN, POR). In one
EIT country a regulation requiring metering was issued to make
consumers aware of the costs of energy consumption (CZE). All EIT
Parties reported price liberalization and removal of
subsidies.
88. Measures to improve the efficiency of existing plants
vary widely among the various Parties. Regulations setting limits on
NOx and SOx emissions were reported as being an
effective way to encourage more efficient use of cleaner fuels (e.g.
DEU, GBR, ITA, SLO). Government funding was accorded to convert
coal-fired plants to more efficient combined cycle gas turbines (e.g.
ITA), to improve the efficiency of lignite plants (e.g. GRE), and for
general energy-saving measures in supply (e.g. HUN). Research and
development of various kinds was reported, for example to enhance
plant performance and fuel handling methods. Voluntary approaches to
improving maintenance and operating practices were reported (e.g.
CAN, IRE, NLD, USA). Other instruments were mentioned such as
financial incentives for cost-effective hydro upgrades, regulations
to improve the efficiency of electricity and gas utilities,
legislation allowing investors to pay for upgrades to federal hydro
facilities and sell the incremental power (USA), and regulations
requiring modernization of coal-fired plants (e.g. POL). Five EIT
Parties (BUL, CZE, HUN, POL, RUS) identified significant technical
and market potential for new energy technology, e.g. combined
cycle gas turbines, cogeneration and fluidized bed
combustion.
89. Some Parties reported financial incentives or government
funding to encourage combined heat and power (CHP) (e.g. CZE,
FIN, GRE, JPN, NLD, SWE), or guidelines or regulations to facilitate
the sale of excess power (e.g. AUS, ITA, JPN, LUX, NLD). Other
measures reported include voluntary approaches to encourage CHP (e.g.
AUS, DNK, GBR, NLD), and legislation to ensure grid
access.
90. Extending district heat networks and connecting more
consumers was seen as a promising option to reduce emissions in
countries with district heating schemes. In Finland about 45 per cent
of buildings (up to 95 per cent in the cities) are connected to
district heating, often from CHP plants, on a voluntary basis. Other
measures in this area include:
(a) Regulations to require households to connect to the network and a ban on conversions to electric heating in areas with district heat or gas networks (e.g. DNK);
(b) Legislation to promote the use of CHP in district heat systems and public buildings (e.g. DEU, GRE);
(c) Subsidies, government funding, low interest loans, tax incentives or investment support for district heat networks and communities using waste heat (e.g. BUL, CZE, DEU, DNK, IRE, JPN, LAT, NLD, POL, SWE);
(d) Research on district heat and cooling technology (e.g. CAN,
JPN, all Nordic countries).
91. Centralized heat supply to households and the public
sector has a high penetration and priority in the energy supply of
EIT Parties. Most of them (BUL, CZE, LAT, POL, RUS), identified
options to increase and upgrade heat supply systems. In Latvia, it is
estimated that reconstruction of heat distribution networks will
reduce CO2 emissions by about 3 per cent and the
installation of meters about 10 per cent. Bulgaria reported
reconstruction of heat supply networks and reduction of losses that
would lead to a 1,000 Gg CO2 reduction annually, which is
considered one of the most cost-effective measures on the basis of
the cost per ton of carbon saved.
92. A few Parties reported measures to reduce losses or improve
efficiency in transmission and distribution of electricity.
Government funding was reported to be used to replace transformers
and extend transmission lines and reduce leaks in gas pipelines.
Research was reported on reduction of transmission losses and
super-conducting technology. One Party (USA) reported labelling of
efficient transformers, linked to voluntary action to purchase
efficient transformers where cost-effective, and dissemination of
information on transformers to utilities, as well as the organization
of group purchases to obtain lower prices.
93. Greenhouse gas emissions in this sector arise from the
combustion of fossil fuels and as by-products from industrial
processes (see also subsection 6 below). Policies and measures
relating to emissions from industrial processes are discussed in a
separate section.(11) Industry
accounts for 20.9 per cent of energy related CO2
emissions and a small share of energy-related CH4 and
N2O emissions, in addition to its substantial electricity
consumption. In some Parties this sector is the largest energy
consumer among the end-use sectors and one of the major contributors
to greenhouse gas emissions (BUL, CZE, FIN, ICE, JPN, RUS, SLO, SWE,
USA). All but three communications (LIE, MON, ROM) reported policies
and measures to control emissions in the sector.
94. Policies and measures in this sector differ substantially in
their objective, scope and effect in different Parties, but with few
exceptions Parties highlighted the importance of the measures within
this sector given its high share of emissions. Several Parties
expected the emissions from this sector to remain at the same or a
lower level than in 1990 as a result of economic restructuring and
technology modernization (e.g. BUL, CHE, ITA, POL, SLO). This
tendency is stronger in EIT countries as a result of both economic
recession and changes in the pattern of economic development. In some
Parties, however, not only was the share of emissions from industry
very high, but also a moderate or substantial growth of emissions was
expected (e.g. CAN, NLD, NZL, SWE, USA). Some Parties reported that
this sector provides the greatest technically and politically
feasible opportunities for emissions reductions among all the sectors
(GBR, RUS, USA).
95. Measures reported in this sector mainly targeted
CO2 emissions. In implementing policies and measures
within the industrial sector Parties emphasized the importance of
using a wide range of policy instruments such as voluntary
agreements, actions and programmes; legislation, regulation and
standards; financial incentives, including grants, tax reliefs, third
party financing, direct subsidies; liberalization of energy prices
and removal of subsidies from energy. The issue of international
competitiveness was frequently raised as posing some restrictions on
the types and strength of measures that could be implemented; several
Parties pointed out that international cooperation is needed to
resolve this issue.
96. Most Parties highlighted energy efficiency improvement,
especially in the use of electricity, switching to fuels with lower
carbon content, and technology development aimed at using energy and
raw materials more efficiently as the most important areas of
intervention in the industrial sector.
97. In planning measures to improve energy efficiency,
Parties often split the industrial sector into two major groups:
energy-intensive industries and non-energy-intensive industries, the
former including iron and steel, non-ferrous metallurgy, pulp and
paper, the chemical industry, and the building materials industry.
Energy costs are a significant part of overall costs in industries
that belong to the energy-intensive industry group (e.g. AUS, FRA,
ITA, JPN). Many Parties identified significant potential for energy
savings for this group of industries (e.g. BUL, FRA, ITA, RUS, SLO,
USA), and some regarded voluntary agreements as the most
effective approach (e.g. AUS, CAN, ITA, NLD). In sectors with low
or medium energy consumption, the cost of energy does not have a
significant impact on production costs so there is relative
insensitivity to energy prices and a tendency to neglect
energy-saving options. Financial support, grant schemes, energy
auditing, and better information about energy conservation
methods were therefore mentioned as essential for implementing energy
efficiency policies (e.g. AUS, DEU, FIN, GBR, ITA, NLD, NOR,
POR).
98. Economic instruments were often used by Parties to
improve energy efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions in the
industrial sector. Economic instruments rather than regulations were
intended to ensure that savings were made where they were most
cost-effective (e.g. GBR, NOR, SWE). Most Parties reported
comprehensive energy-saving programmes and special funds to support
them. The scope of programmes is very broad, from energy efficiency
improvement by such measures as lighting improvement and space and
water heating, to introduction of new energy efficient
equipment.
99. Regulations, standards and guidelines were less often
mentioned by Parties in this sector. Many Parties reported drafting
or planning to adopt new laws on energy efficiency and harmonization
of energy-saving concepts and energy policies by regulations and
guidelines as an essential step toward improving the regulatory
framework intended to enhance energy efficiency (e.g. AUT, BUL, CHE,
CZE, ITA, NLD, NZL).
100. Almost all Parties highlighted the role of information,
education and training to promote energy efficiency in industry
and often reported the dissemination of information as an element of
energy-saving programmes (e.g. AUT, DEU, FIN, GBR, ITA, NLD, NOR,
POR, USA). Pilot projects and demonstration projects in many
cases served to promote new energy efficient technologies, to
accelerate technological development and to bring new technologies to
the market. Governments usually supported these projects by direct
government funding or by subsidies (e.g. DEN, GBR, ITA, NOR, NZL,
SWE).
101. This sector covers energy end-use in households, businesses,
and the public sector. The majority of GHG emissions caused by
activities in this sector are CO2 emissions from
electricity production to meet energy demand for space and water
heating, lighting, refrigeration, and office equipment. This sector
is the target of the largest number of measures reported, but given
that most emissions from electricity production are attributed to
other sectors it contributed just 10 per cent of 1990
CO2 emissions from reporting Parties. The proportion of
CO2 emissions from this sector in the various Parties
ranges from 3 per cent (AUS) to 44 per cent (CHE).
102. The policy objective most frequently emphasized for
the residential/commercial sector is enhanced energy efficiency to
reduce emissions and to improve economic efficiency. In several
Parties (AUT, FIN, NOR, NZL, SWE and some EITs) biomass is a
significant fuel. There was some mention, but much less emphasis, on
fuel switching and promotion of renewable energy. Parties reported
many measures aimed at reducing CO2 emissions through
improved energy efficiency. The extent to which a particular policy
instrument is used may be related to national circumstances, such as
a preference for economic instruments (e.g. GBR) or voluntary
agreements (e.g. NLD). However, most Parties employ a package of
measures including regulations, economic instruments, voluntary
approaches, and information and education. The need for a coordinated
approach with national, state and local governments, the private
sector, and consumers was emphasized by a number of Parties (e.g.
CAN, GBR).
103. Among the most effective measures, Parties mentioned
energy efficiency standards for new buildings, raising energy prices,
or improving their transparency, and efficiency promotion campaigns
on television. Among the most often implemented measures,
Parties reported building insulation or energy efficiency standards,
financial and tax incentives to improve energy efficiency in
buildings, technical assistance and information for building design
and construction, appliance efficiency standards, and public
awareness campaigns.
104. A number of Parties (e.g. CAN, FIN, GBR, GRE, NLD, NZL)
reported monitoring programmes for this sector, though
indicating that tracking the progress of measures in a sector with
many players is a challenge. Estimated emission reductions from the
residential/commercial sector vary widely between countries depending
on the type and stringency of measures implemented, and on the fuel
mix of the energy saved. Some Parties stated that emission reductions
can be difficult to calculate because it is often not possible to
accurately determine the type of fuel used to produce the electricity
but during the IDRs many Parties demonstrated some of the approaches
used. Effects were estimated by some Parties, often for packages of
measures (AUS, DNK, GBR, GRE, USA).
105. Buildings were the key focus for most Parties'
emission reduction strategies in the residential/commercial sector,
particularly for EIT Parties. The emphasis is on new construction,
where the potential for greater energy efficiency can be achieved
most cost-effectively. Some Parties also reported measures to improve
the energy efficiency of existing buildings stock where
cost-effective improvements are possible during
refurbishment.
106. The most frequently reported measures to improve the thermal
performance of new buildings were regulations and standards.
New or more stringent insulation standards or energy efficiency
performance standards were reported by many Parties (e.g. AUT, BUL,
CZE, DEU, DNK, FRA, IRE, ITA, JPN, LUX, POL, POR). Some Parties
noted, and the IDRs confirmed, that performance standards are more
flexible and more cost-effective than prescriptive standards that
require specific building materials and techniques. Regulations or
guidelines related to energy efficiency in buildings and ventilation
and heating systems were reported by several Parties (e.g. DEU, GRE,
IRE, LIE). Others reported strengthening building energy efficiency
codes or regulations (e.g. AUS, DNK, ESP, GBR, NLD, USA). Some EIT
Parties reported that strengthening new building insulation standards
is an element of harmonizing codes and standards with those of the
European Community (BUL, POL, SLO).
107. Lack of information on availability and cost-effectiveness
was frequently mentioned as a barrier to broad market penetration of
efficient appliances. Product characteristics other than
energy efficiency, such as price, low noise or size are often
dominant in purchasing decisions, limiting incentives to produce more
efficient appliances.
108. To help bridge this gap, some Parties reported education
and information measures to raise awareness and labelling schemes
to draw attention to more efficient products. Public awareness and
information campaigns are used to raise consumer awareness of energy
efficient products (e.g. CHE, DEU, FIN, IRE). Labelling schemes such
as energy efficiency or eco labels on appliances were frequently
reported, with European countries referring to the European Union
refrigerator labelling scheme. This was referred to as a low cost
measure.
109. Financial assistance such as subsidies for purchase and
installation of more efficient appliances, equipment, and
fittings was reported by some Parties (BUL, CZE, GBR, GRE, NLD).
Three EIT Parties reported financial support for efficient lighting
(BUL, CZE, SLO). Specifically in the public sector, government
funding for the replacement of street lighting with efficient sodium
lamps was reported by three Parties (BUL, GRE, IRE).
110. All Parties recognized that prices could have a large impact
on energy consumption patterns in this sector (e.g. BUL, CZE, GBR,
LAT, SLO). CO2/energy taxes are discussed in the
cross-sectoral section, but many countries noted that these, as well
as value-added tax (VAT) (e.g. GBR), can have a substantial impact on
consumer behaviour, especially in the longer term. EIT Parties
stressed the importance of liberalization of energy prices
(e.g. BUL, CZE, LAT, SLO), and removal of subsidies on
residential heat and electricity (BUL), although in some countries
prices for residential heat remain subsidized for social reasons
(e.g. ROM) or VAT exemptions on heating fuel are practised (e.g.
GBR).
111. Energy and sales taxes or tax reductions were reported
frequently (e.g. CZE, DEU, DNK, EST, FIN, FRA, GBR, LUX, NOR, SWE),
and tariff reform to ensure that electricity prices reflect
costs was reported by several Parties (e.g. AUT, DEU, LIE). Among the
financial incentives reported by Parties were: incentives for
better energy management (e.g. EST, FRA, GBR), finance for energy
saving programmes (e.g. EST), a joint programme for economic recovery
in eastern Germany (DEU), community loan programme (DEU), low
interest loans for energy efficiency measures (HUN), and discounts on
the cost of space and water heating depending on levels of
consumption (LIE) were also reported.
112. Most Parties used legislation, regulations or
guidelines to achieve technical improvements in lighting,
appliances, and equipment. Performance standards were reported by
most Parties to remove the least efficient appliances and/or
equipment from the market (e.g. AUS, BUL, CAN, CHE, DNK, FRA, GBR,
GRE, IRE, ITA, JPN, NLD, NZL, USA). Some Parties noted the
development of common standards in the European Community and
indicated that standards have greater effect when implemented jointly
by trade partners (GBR). Three EIT Parties (CZE, EST, SLO) also
mentioned improved appliance standards in their lists of measures.
Many Parties noted that regulations or standards can be effective in
encouraging the development of more efficient products.
113. The transport sector, with 26.2 per cent of fuel
combustion emissions, ranks second after the energy and
transformation industry in its share of CO2 emissions, and
is responsible for approximately 11 per cent of N2O emissions.
For seven Parties (AUT, CAN, FRA, ICE, NOR, NZL, SWE) transport was
the largest source of fuel combustion CO2 emissions. Its
actual share varies from less than 5 per cent (CZE) to 82 per cent
(ICE), reflecting, among other factors, the status of economic
development, as well as the fuel mix in the non-mobile energy end-use
sector.
114. Twenty-six Parties reported measures that had been
implemented or planned in the transport sector. Many Parties
indicated in their national communications and confirmed during the
in-depth reviews that, in spite of the wide range of measures already
in place (e.g. taxes, regulations, standards, promotion of public
transport), emissions from this sector are seen as likely to continue
to increase. Estimates of the effects of measures being implemented
or planned compared to baselines vary widely, partly because many
measures have so far been implemented only to a limited
extent.
115. Relevant sectoral characteristics are the strong
relationship between economic development and transport growth,
transport's high dependence on oil, the significant lack of economic
potential for fuel substitution in the short term and the resultant
short-term menu of policies focused on behavioural change and
technical efficiency improvements. It was noted by some Parties that
stabilization of emissions from the transport sector would either
require continual technical improvement to counter the effects of
transport growth, or a combination of technical improvement and
demand management to weaken the link between economic growth and
particular forms of transport.
116. Policies and measures in the transport sector, as reported in
national communications, are linked to the following policy
objectives: improved operational efficiency of transport systems,
including energy use and emissions; increased energy efficiency of
vehicles; noxious emission reduction and control; and promotion of
less carbon-intensive transport fuels.
117. The majority of measures were aimed at goals more
closely associated with the Parties' traditional approach to
transport policies involving indirect energy saving and emission
spin-offs, such as restricting personal car use and road freight and
promoting public transport and the carriage of freight by rail or
sea.
118. Packages of fiscal, regulatory, and information
measures which form part of local and national integrated approaches
to transport emission reduction (e.g. AUS, AUT, CZE, DNK, GRE, NLD,
NZL, NOR, USA) were possibly the class of measures which demonstrate
the greatest potential. Some Parties, in particular EIT countries,
noted the links between economic and transport growth, and stressed
that the share of public and rail transport should be maintained as a
specific measure to mitigate climate change (e.g. NLD, SLO). The IDRs
confirmed that this is a challenge in most Annex I
Parties.
119. Economic instruments and incentives to influence
vehicle design, purchase and patterns of use were regarded as an
important class of measures. Vehicles and fuels in particular are
already taxed, though there is significant variation in the level of
taxes implemented (from 0 to more than 200 to 300 per cent) and
proposed among the Parties, as well as the way these are applied (on
different fuels, by weight, engine volume, energy efficiency, etc.)
(e.g. CHE, DNK, FIN, FRA, GBR, NLD, NOR, NZL, SWE).
120. Measures to improve the average vehicle fuel economy
of new cars manufactured or sold in a country (by affecting the
development and take-up of energy efficient vehicle technology) have
a wide applicability among the Parties, as mentioned by several
European Community countries. Such measures have reasonably long
lead-times before the effects are felt, as vehicle fleets turn over
about every 10-15 years. Regulations and standards introduced
in the 1980s by the United States and Canada were notable for their
impact. In the period 1978-1990, when corporate average fuel economy
standards were being implemented, the average fuel efficiency in the
United States increased from 9 to 13 kilometres per litre, and
Canadian fuel efficiency exceeded the goal of corporate average fleet
fuel economy of 8.6 litres per 100 km. Large increases in the number
of vehicle-kilometres travelled over the same period, however, offset
these gains in fuel efficiency. The IDRs demonstrated that some
measures are under consideration which could achieve similar effects,
including new approaches such as "feebate" schemes and
voluntary agreements between governments and vehicle
manufacturers.
121. Several Parties mentioned that local measures to
influence behaviour, such as the promotion of public transport,
bicycle use, and traffic management, have the potential to reduce
emissions, and can generally be applied relatively quickly if funds
are available. The IDRs confirmed a downward pressure on subsidies to
public transport as budgets are tightened, and as restructuring or
privatization takes place in several Parties. Few Parties reported
evidence of progress in improving energy efficiency in the transport
sector and in general few measures were directed specifically towards
that end. Given the longer lead times for these types of measures,
additional efforts to improve the energy efficiency of vehicles and
transport systems might be required to improve the mid-term emissions
outlook.
122. GHG emissions from this sector originated from several major
sources, including PFCs from the aluminum industry, HFCs from the
chemical industry, N2O from adipic acid manufacturing,
CO2 from the cement and lime industry and SF6
from magnesium production. The sector contributed 2.6 per cent
of CO2 emissions, 29.9 per cent of
N2O emissions, and less than 0.5 per cent of
CH4 emissions. It was the only source of HFCs and PFCs in
1990. Most of the Parties expected the emissions of
non-CO2 gases from industrial processes to decrease
substantially over time, driven mainly by measures that were already
partly implemented. This trend was confirmed by the 1991-1994
inventory data reported so far.
123. The non-CO2 gases were primarily subject to
measures in Parties with relatively high levels of these emissions
(e.g. AUS, CAN, GBR, NOR, USA) which acted to reduce these emissions,
partially from existing plants, by improving production
technologies, including major process changes. The gases that
were most often targeted by measures were HFCs, PFCs and
N2O.
124. Voluntary programmes were reported by Parties as being
the most appropriate way of reducing emissions in this sector; other
policy instruments were used to a lesser extent. In regard to PFCs,
for example, by implementing voluntary programmes Australia achieved
a 70 per cent reduction compared to the 1990 level, the United
Kingdom obtained a reduction of about 65 per cent within a three-year
period, and the United States expects a 50 per cent reduction in the
near term.
125. Some Parties also referred to a number of voluntary
programmes and measures to reduce CO2 emissions from
cement production by greater use of "dry process kilns" (e.g. CAN),
and to reduce SF6 emissions from magnesium production by
improved routines and maintenance (e.g. NOR). In the United States, a
partnership approach with the chemical industry to reduce by-product
emissions of HFCs from manufacturing operations by 50 per cent was
implemented, together with the Clean Air Act, which narrows the scope
of uses allowed for HFCs with high global warming potentials where
better alternatives exist. In order to reduce N2O
emissions adipic acid producers were investigating different
abatement strategies, including incineration, conversion to
recoverable nitrogen monoxide and catalytic decomposition to nitrogen
and oxygen (e.g. CAN, DEU, GBR).
126. The majority of Parties, however, reported no measures in
this sector given the small share of emissions coming from it. They
also assumed the emissions to be constant over time, or indicated
that no data were available for more accurate estimates.
127. Agriculture is a major source of methane emissions,
accounting for 33 per cent of total reported CH4
emissions, of which 57 per cent resulted from enteric fermentation,
32 per cent from animal waste management, and 5 per cent from rice
farming. This sector also accounts for 28 per cent of
total reported N2O emissions. The sector's activities
relate to the raising of crops and animals, the treatment of wastes
resulting from both activities, and soil emissions resulting from
agricultural practices. Emissions of CH4 are generated by
enteric fermentation processes in ruminant animals, by the anaerobic
decomposition of animal wastes, by anaerobic processes resulting from
rice farming practices, and from the burning of agricultural wastes
and open grasslands. Emissions of N2O result from nitrogen
cycling in the soil system, and especially from the use of
nitrogenous fertilizers.
128. In the agricultural sector, objectives related to food
security, maximizing the production of an uncontaminated food supply
and preserving the agricultural environment in order to maintain its
productivity, are universal. A wide range of measures are aimed at
achieving these objectives, and at the same time taking into account
climate change considerations.
129. The majority of measures reported by Parties targeted
CH4 and N2O emissions. These measures included,
among others, regulations and guidelines on improvement of the
agriculture structure (e.g. DEU), decreasing the number of cattle and
manure production (e.g. NLD), quotas on milk production (e.g. CHE),
and limiting the number of animals per hectare (SWE), and economic
instruments, such as the abolishment of subsidies on agricultural
production (NZL), subsidies for energy-efficient systems in
greenhouses (JPN), a levy on ammonia emissions (NLD), subsidies to
regulate crop production and on organic farming techniques
(CHE).
130. Parties members of the European Community often mentioned the
Common Agricultural Policy, which consists of a series of policy
directives including the prescription of a reduction in the number of
animals per hectare, rationalization of fertilizer use, increased
fallowing with crop cover, sustainable agricultural practices, a
reduction in guaranteed feed grain prices and fertilizer subsidies,
and the protection of water quality from agricultural wastes, among
other measures. These practices also have the benefit of reducing
emissions of GHGs from this sector.
131. A number of Parties reported measures in this sector directed
at substitution of fossil fuels by biomass, such as oil-seed
crops or surplus straw, and, as a longer term option, increased
cultivation of energy crops. Many measures were reported to be at the
research and development stage, with the impact expected in
the medium to longer term following their implementation. Such
measures included, for example, research and evaluation of measures
to reduce emissions from rice paddies and livestock (JPN), to improve
the efficiency of nitrogen intake (e.g. AUS, CAN), and to potentially
alter the natural balance of enteric bacteria (e.g.
NZL).
132. Voluntary agreements were mentioned by some Parties as
a part of their national mitigation efforts. These included, for
example, reducing summer fallow acreage and revegetating abandoned
farmland, using crop residues for composting, animal feed and bedding
(CAN), and concluding partnerships with farmers to provide on-farm
energy needs with CH4 from manure and to improve
efficiency of nitrogen use (USA). Many Parties reported
information, education and training aimed at promoting the
extension of biological farming and integrated husbandry and the
optimal use of fertilizers.
133. In the transition from a centralized economy with state
agricultural enterprises to privatized agriculture, EIT countries all
experienced a decline in the agricultural sector. In particular,
animal herds were substantially reduced. This has led to a fall in
emissions from this sector which generally are not expected to return
to their earlier levels in these countries by the year 2000.
Nevertheless, some measures were reported by EIT Parties in this
sector. For example, soil sampling to determine the quantity of
fertilizers to be introduced and the promotion of manure as a
fertilizer were reported by Bulgaria, support for using biomass by
the Czech Republic, and an action plan to reduce water nitrate
contamination in agriculture by Slovakia.
134. Policies and measures in the land-use change and forestry
sector were reported by almost all Parties, including Parties which,
owing to the high uncertainties, did not provide inventory data for
this sector. The discussion focused primarily on CO2,
although in a few cases the minor impact of forest clearing on other
gases, such as CH4, CO, N2O and NOx,
was also discussed.
135. Policies and measures reported by Parties in this sector
predominantly concerned forests, and were frequently
implemented through national forestry plans. A varied set of
instruments were described. Economic instruments included, inter
alia, subsidies for initial investments and fiscal advantages,
voluntary agreements, research and promotion of awareness. The
general objectives of policies were equally diverse, ranging from
targets for reforestation and afforestation (e.g. Denmark has an
afforestation target of 10-15 km2/year; Australia's 1
Billion Trees Programme is the country's single largest contributor
to mitigation) to improvement of the quality of forests and pest and
fire control. In only a few instances, however, was sequestration of
CO2 indicated as an objective of the forestry policy (for
example, in Finland, a specific link to CO2 sequestration
was made in the Forestry 2000 plan).
136. Different Parties use different means of increasing the
carbon sink in forests. In countries with a strong tradition in
silviculture, such as the Nordic countries, a high proportion of the
forest is managed for timber production, with management practices
determining the carbon storage. Even in intensively exploited forests
carbon sequestration can increase. In other countries, afforestation
or reforestation is an important means of increasing the sink, such
as in New Zealand. Several forestry management practices to reduce or
eliminate natural loss were reported, including deer damage control
and protection against fires (for example, by raising awareness and
creating fire-breaks).
137. With reference to stocks, some Parties noted that, in
addition to sequestration rates, the long-term growth of carbon
reservoirs was an important issue to be studied in greater depth in
the future. In a few instances Parties reported efforts to preserve
the carbon stock of natural forests in reserves (New Zealand's
efforts to combat degradation being noteworthy). A few Parties also
reported policies and measures to enhance the carbon stored in the
pool of wood products (France being a case in point through its
promotion of the use of wood in construction; also
Germany).
138. Less frequently discussed were policies and measures for
carbon stored in soil, possibly as a result of the greater
uncertainties in the inventory data. The return of arable land to
forestry and grassland, brought about by changes in incentive
structure, is occurring in many countries, both within the context of
the Common Agricultural Policy reform (EU Regulation No. 2080/92
providing aid for the conversion of arable land to forests) and in
Parties not members of the European Community. The conversion of
wetlands into forests results in a reduction in CH4
emissions, with different impacts on soil carbon depending on the
natural conditions (negative in the United Kingdom and positive in
Finland). The scope for such conversion is now seen as limited
compared to the past 20-40 years. The conversion of peatland
was also mentioned by a few Parties, both to agricultural land and to
forest, with differing impacts according to the type of subsequent
land use. Specific policies and measures were not always
identified.
139. Agricultural practices (related to, for instance, animal
husbandry) that affect the carbon stored in soil were also discussed.
Some Parties mentioned the role played by programmes to avert
deforestation in preventing soil erosion.
140. One Party, Australia, noted that there might be a need to
review the IPCC definition of "anthropogenic" with regard to the
deliberate burning of grasslands, which has traditionally been used
as a management tool for the prevention of bush fires.
141. This sector includes activities related to the landfilling
and incineration of solid municipal and industrial wastes, and the
treatment of liquid municipal and industrial wastes and sludge. These
activities generate a number of GHGs, principally CH4 and
CO2, and precursors. The sector represented 26.6 per
cent of total reported methane emissions in 1990, the percentage
in national totals varying widely.
142. In general, countries originally introduced waste management
practices in order to deal with the primary problems associated with
waste, such as sanitation and health concerns, nuisance odours and,
in some instances, safety. As the growth of landfill space was
regarded as undesirable in many countries, extensive recycling
programmes were initiated, and in some countries incineration was
seen as the most feasible alternative to landfilling.
143. In order to meet the dual need to reduce waste volume and at
the same time reduce the cost of fuel needed for energy production,
many countries introduced waste-to-energy programmes. In addition,
methane gas, produced during anaerobic decomposition in both
landfills and wastewater treatment facilities, poses both safety and
aesthetic problems, and many countries have invested in methane
recovery, often for energy purposes.
144. The majority of Parties reported having national policies or
specific regulations related to such waste management
practices, either requiring or encouraging waste stream
reduction, waste separation, recycling, composting, and landfill
aeration. Another commonly reported measure, usually accomplished
through voluntary means or economic incentives as opposed to
regulation, was the diversion of waste from landfills to an
incinerator, in order to produce power. Many Parties with substantial
waste incineration programmes reported that they had set standards
for such incinerators.
145. Regulations and guidelines were often mentioned by
Parties as implemented or planned measures in this sector. Nineteen
Parties reported either implemented (AUS, CAN, CHE, DEU, DNK, FIN,
FRA, GBR, GRE, ITA, NLD, NOR, SWE, USA) or planned (CZE, GBR, ICE,
NZL, POL, RUS) programmes to recover methane from landfills
and use the recovered gas as an energy source. Germany has
legislation requiring that old dump sites recover and thermally
exploit methane. France has passed a law requiring that after 2002
nothing be landfilled except materials which cannot be recycled, or
materials whose beneficial reuse has been exhausted. In the
Netherlands, a ban on land-filling of combustible waste is to come
into force in 1996. It is expected that this will lead to an increase
in energy recovery from waste through incineration.
146. Mitigation of climate change was one of several reasons for
implementing the majority of measures, the main rationale often being
economic, in particular for measures improving energy efficiency in
all sectors. A significant proportion of the measures were reported
as being of the "no regrets" type. It was not always possible to
distinguish from the communications between planned and implemented
measures, and in the case of measures being implemented, indicators
of progress were often missing. This last factor made it difficult to
draw a parallel between the effects expected from the most
significant measures and the projected GHG levels for 2000; in-depth
reviews have been helpful in clarifying these and other
issues.
147. Removals of subsidies in, for example, the energy and
agriculture sectors were reported to reduce CO2,
CH4 and N2O emissions. Deregulation, especially
in the electricity sector, was reported as a central factor causing
reductions in several Parties. In the EIT Parties, the process of
economic restructuring and establishing market prices for energy
commodities caused the bulk of the reductions; specific programmes
directly aimed at mitigating climate change were often in an initial
phase. For the Parties that reported policies and measures in the
land-use change and forestry sector, these related mostly to forestry
management, often aiming at sustainable utilization. IDRs confirmed
that, at present, these practices in general increase the sink
capacity.
148. There was no uniform pattern of reporting on the
effectiveness of measures across Parties which would enable specific
conclusions to be drawn as regards their overall impact or
applicability in the various sectors of the economy. The IDRs have
addressed policies and measures initiated both before and after the
base year, as these were seen by the teams as equally important for
the trends in emissions. Information on the effects of individual
measures was often sketchy or based on assumptions that were not
always transparent; the cost-effectiveness of measures, including
specific information on costs and benefits, was rarely discussed,
thus making it difficult to evaluate what measures were the most
significant or effective. Those measures which were identified as
effective were not necessarily the most frequently implemented, and
sectors where descriptions of measures were most detailed or complete
were not always the most important emitters or the fastest growing
ones. For example, relatively few policies and measures were reported
in the transport sector, despite the fact that emissions from this
sector are growing rapidly in virtually all Parties. Although the
IDRs revealed that considerable fuel and vehicle taxes, technical
measures, support for public transport and physical planning measures
are in place in several Parties and could slow emissions growth, this
growth is still robust.
149. A number of Parties indicated the need to consider policies
and measures requiring international cooperation, in particular
taxes. Five Parties (Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden)
had unilaterally implemented taxes aiming at reducing CO2
emissions, taxing CO2 only or both CO2 and
energy elements. These taxes had a number of exemptions for reasons
of competitiveness (for energy-intensive industries, bunker fuels,
fuels for electricity production), which were seen as necessary as
long as such taxes were not applied in other countries. A frequently
reported, although not yet implemented, policy was the combined
CO2/energy tax under discussion in the European Community.
Some Parties to some extent also coordinated among themselves
mitigation efforts, such as energy consumption standards for
appliances that are sold on regional markets.
150. Some significant reductions were reported and partly
implemented in the industrial sector, related to process changes in
aluminum production resulting in the reduction of PFC emissions, and
in adipic acid production reducing emissions of nitrous oxide. In the
waste sector, sorting, recycling and changed landfill management
practices in several Parties are expected to yield considerable
reductions in methane emissions towards the end of the decade and
thereafter. In the residential, commercial and institutional sector,
the communications focused on regulations and standards for new
buildings as well as on a variety of measures (taxes, demand-side
management programmes, information and education) promoting efficient
energy use in existing buildings. Some innovative measures, known as
"Golden Carrot" programmes (e.g. SWE, USA), were aimed at enhancing
the development of energy efficient appliances.
151. Pursuant to Article 4.2 and the guidelines, most Parties
provided projections for anthropogenic emissions for the three major
gases. More than half of Parties projected precursors and removals by
sinks, while several made projections for other gases. A number of
Parties completed and updated the projections during the IDRs.
Germany and Estonia provided projections after their communications
had been submitted, the latter having had problems establishing the
relevant statistics. The basis for the emissions projections in some
countries dates back to 1990-1991, while in others this was done in
1996.
152. Several Parties stated that their "with measures"
projections, incorporating current policies and measures, did not
necessarily reflect what they expected their emission levels to be in
2000 since they intended to develop and implement further measures.
The projections provide information on progress made towards the aim
specified in Article 4.2 but should be seen in the context of
statements on national targets, monitoring of progress and further
development of policies and measures. The IDRs have shown that some
additional policies and measures are being introduced while others
that were included in the projections are not being implemented.
Often economic growth has been stronger and energy prices lower than
originally expected, causing higher underlying growth.
153. The sections of the communications dealing with projections
and effects of policies and measures were very heterogeneous. In an
effort to present the information as concisely as possible, the data
are set out in tables B.1-B.8.(12)
However, it is important to emphasize that projections from one Party
are not comparable with those from another because of differences in
modelling approaches, key input assumptions, sources projected, the
representation of policies and measures, the uncertainties of
projections due to national circumstances and adjustments in some of
the 1990 levels for temperature anomalies or electricity trade. As
was noted by Australia in its communication: "... the most useful way
to interpret the numerical values quoted in this chapter is to obtain
an appreciation of the order of magnitude of the issues. That
is, to draw out their qualitative inferences rather than to
apply a rigorous mathematical analysis" (emphasis
added).
154. Parties used different approaches to estimate their projected
emissions, reflecting variations in economic structure, experience
and data availability. "Top-down" economic models played a dominant
role for CO2 projections. Some Parties based their
projections on sectoral models, typically for the energy and
transport sectors. Several Parties, for example Australia and the
United States, combined "top-down" models with more technologically
explicit "bottom-up" approaches. It is well known that the use of
different models can generate significantly different outcomes.
Projections of emissions of non-CO2 gases and of removals
by sinks were, in general, based on more disaggregated
approaches.
155. Most Parties provided enough information in the
communications to allow a third party to obtain a qualitative insight
into the approaches used, although the IDRs afforded a deeper
understanding. A few Parties did not provide sufficient documentation
on their work (partly since this was not available in one of the
working languages of the secretariat). The IDRs confirmed that
Parties have very different traditions in developing and utilizing
quantitative projections. In several of Parties there is heavy
involvement of relevant ministries, while others have projections
carried out by independent consultants. The adequacy in relation to
actual development of policies and measures varies.
156. The transition from centrally planned to market-driven
economies has required new approaches for projections that better
reflect the changed economic structure in EIT Parties. Most of these
have used a combination of "top-down" macroeconomic models with
sectoral models for energy end-use sectors of the economy and
optimization models to project the development of energy supply.
These models were used to produce consistent macroeconomic scenarios
that incorporate projections of major macroeconomic indicators.
Normally the use of models was supplemented by expert opinions on
possible developments in different sectors. The approach did not
generally allow for the simulation of fuel switching driven by
relative changes in energy prices, or weighing mitigation options in
energy supply versus energy efficiency measures in demand, as the
relevant relations between economic variables cannot be estimated
based on historic data. It also had limitations in simulating
technological improvements. Therefore, several EIT Parties have
recently started to utilize models such as MARKAL-MACRO which help to
identify optimal mixes of energy technologies to provide the required
level of energy services at minimum cost.
157. It was often unclear from the communications how policies and
measures were reflected in the projections. In general, the
approaches used did not allow complete representation of all policies
and measures to the level of detail in which they had been
implemented. In part, this is because there was insufficient
information on the effects of individual policies and measures. In
addition, the level of aggregation in some types of models was high.
Still, some Parties (e.g. AUS, USA) provided detailed assessments
where top-down and bottom-up methods were combined. The IDRs
confirmed that, where national communications contained little
detail, rough estimates that did not specify individual policies and
measures were sometimes used. Several Parties noted that such
aggregation made it difficult to account for overlap and synergies
between different policies and measures. Some EIT Parties included
relatively detailed estimates of the effects of significant policies
and measures, such as future use of nuclear power and developments
towards market prices, as well as the cost of mitigation options.
Other EIT Parties presented highly integrated scenarios from which
the effects of policies and measures in terms of greenhouse gas
emission reduction could not be evaluated.
158. Important assumptions relating to GDP growth, energy prices
and structural changes in energy demand and supply were made in the
projections. Reflecting various situations, and the time span of the
projections, these differed. They were generally in line with
scenarios provided by authoritative international sources such as
OECD, IEA and the World Energy Council. The IDRs showed that energy
prices have often been lower than assumed and GDP growth higher,
causing higher underlying growth in emissions. Differences in assumed
prices for energy commodities will often have significant effects on
emissions in the longer run. In many countries the assumptions
regarding tax levels on such commodities as gasoline, which is often
heavily taxed, could be more important for consumer prices and
emission developments than world market prices. The projected changes
in population varied from declines, which could be significant in
some EITs, to 10-15 per cent growth over the decade.
159. In the EIT countries, GDP decreased by 25 to 50 per cent
after 1990, a situation assumed to have stabilized in 1994-1995. For
some of them the projected growth rate from 1996 varied from 2 per
cent to 5-6 per cent. The growth rate in some of these countries in
1995-1996 is at the upper end of the assumed range. The EIT Parties
have reported as crucial the establishment of domestic energy prices
consistent with costs and prices in the international markets (i.e.
eliminating subsidies) as an inherent part of the transitional
process. In most of these countries this process is at an advanced
stage and only electricity, heat and gas supplies to the households
are still subsidized.
160. Various types of uncertainty relating to natural variations
and policy choices were reported by Parties and mentioned in the
IDRs. A number of Parties provided sensitivity analyses of variations
in some key inputs. Some also raised the issue of variations around
trends caused by such factors as temperature fluctuations;
precipitation; the business cycle and electricity trade; some Parties
gave examples of emissions peaking in dry years because of low
hydropower availability. Trends are generally influenced by the
choice of fuels, especially for electricity production, by changes in
behaviour, including tendencies to use electricity for more purposes,
and by the effects of policies and measures, in addition to the
economic factors mentioned above. To overcome the high level of
uncertainty in EIT country projections, some of these Parties
provided several scenarios that differed mainly in the assumptions
regarding GDP growth, since this was considered the most important
driving variable.
161. Four Parties (CHE, DNK, FRA, NLD) adjusted the 1990 figures
used for projections to allow for short-term fluctuations. They did
so in a transparent manner and expressed the view that, as conditions
in projected years were assumed to be average, the adjustments made
it easier to demonstrate how policies and measures influenced
emissions. The reports from some Parties (DNK, NLD) reflected policy
approaches that predated the UNFCCC and the reporting guidelines. The
differences between these approaches, which led to adjustments in
their 1990 figures, and the reporting guidelines were explained in
the communications and examined in the IDRs. From the IDRs, it was
clear that such short-term fluctuations apply to most countries to
some extent, and many countries pointed out the need to deal with
them in a uniform way under the Convention. This issue is discussed
in more detail in document FCCC/SBSTA/1996/9/Add.1.
162. Several Parties noted that 1990 was warmer than normal. One
Party (NLD) adjusted its inventory and the starting point for the
projections by an amount equivalent to 4 per cent above the actual
1990 figure for CO2. Two Parties (CHE, FRA) adjusted only
the starting points for their projections in the same way, by 3-5 per
cent. A number of Parties gave quantitative indications of what such
an adjustment would have meant for them.
163. Several Parties mentioned electricity trade in relation to
projections. One country (DNK) accounted for its net imports of
electricity in 1990 by simulating production of that electricity from
available plants within its own borders, which gave a figure
equivalent to 12 per cent above the actual 1990 figure for
CO2. Others accounted for net electricity imports in
theirs 2000 projections without attaching emissions to them, and yet
another stated that emissions generated in producing exported or
imported electricity were not taken into account in its projections.
The communications and IDRs showed that assumptions and actual
developments regarding electricity trade could have a crucial effect
on whether or not stabilization levels are reached nationally. One
Party (FIN) estimated that emissions would have increased by around
20 per cent if the amount of electricity that it imported in 1990 had
been produced domestically. That particular import was mostly
produced by hydro and nuclear power in the countries of origin.
Further, the IDRs noted the increasing international integration of
the electricity markets, in particular in Europe, creating additional
uncertainty as regards future emissions.
164. Although Parties made efforts to comply with the guidelines
definition of "with measures", the IDRs showed that in several
countries there have been significant changes in the policies and
measures implemented or committed to, for example in tax structure
and funding level, since the communication was submitted. Some
updates, which also reflect differences in economic development, are
shown in a separate column in table B.1 and in footnotes to all
tables.
165. Some Parties reported difficulties in projecting
non-CO2 gases, often because of lack of data. This has
implications for the robustness of the projections, particularly for
emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6. Several projections of
non-CO2 gas emissions and removals, reflected scenarios
that incorporated few policies and measures or none at all. The IDRs
confirmed that emissions of these gases exist in several more
countries than those which gave projections. Largely introduced after
1990, projections of HFCs had to be made virtually without the
support of historic data.
166. All Parties except Romania and Monaco provided information
that constituted, or could be interpreted as, "with measures"
projections. The guidelines requirement for "with measures"
projections is that they take into account "the effects of policies
and measures that were implemented or committed to when the
communication was produced." Most Parties incorporated in their 2000
figures, to the extent possible, the effects of policies and measures
that were being implemented or had been committed to when the
communication was produced, often assuming that current funding
levels would be continued. Some assumed only partial implementation
of action plans and mitigation programmes, while others assumed full
implementation and funding of planned activities. One Party included
fewer policies and measures in its projections than had already been
implemented. In some cases, projections were not made for all
sectors. Some Parties did not include a "with measures" projection,
but provided a "without measures" or "reference" projection and
estimated the effects of policies and measures on emissions
separately, enabling a "with measures" 2000 level to be
ascertained.
167. Different ways were used to present data in the
communications. The presentation in tables B.1-B.8 is intended to
make it possible for countries to recognize their own approaches.
Tables B.1, B.3, B.4, B.5 and B.6 were presented in provisional form
in document FCCC/SB/1996/1/Add.1. The SBSTA, at its second session,
invited Annex I Parties to forward to the secretariat their
suggestions relative to the presentation of inventory data on the
land-use change and forestry sector for years subsequent to 1990, to
projections for this sector, as well as to aggregating data on
greenhouse gas sources and sinks from this and other sectors. No
specific comments on the structure and content of these tables were
received by the secretariat. However, reservations regarding the
presentation of net figures were made in earlier submissions and in
IDRs. Still a number of revisions were made to update the tables on
the basis of information obtained from the IDRs and revised
inventories. Those countries that have a net approach only to
CO2, will have to combine the information from tables B.1
and B.2 to arrive at net figures, but such information is also
presented and discussed in document
FCCC/SBSTA/1996/9/Add.1.
168. The tables allow to compare, for each Party, the projected
emission and removal levels of greenhouse gases in 2000
with:
(a) The 1990 levels used as a basis for the projections; and
(b) The 1990 levels reflected in the inventory.
169. Separate tables are provided for CO2 excluding the land-use change and forestry sector
(table B.1), CO2 from this sector including removals by
sinks (table B.2), CH4 (table B.3), N2O (table
B.4) and other greenhouse gases (table B.5). Updated information
derived from the IDRs is presented in a separate column in the table
for CO2 and included in the main tables for
non-CO2 gases, where it often reflects more complete
projections rather than changes in assumptions. To aggregate the
emissions of all gases and to give a more effective presentation of
HFCs and PFCs, and in accordance with decision 4/CP.1, the
secretariat has used IPCC-1994 GWP values (100 years time horizon)
for several tables. The use of GWPs is discussed in document
FCCC/SBSTA/1996/9/Add.1, where it is noted that the GWP values were
revised in 1995. The secretariat has developed GWP-based summary
tables for all gases, with and without land-use change and forestry
(tables B.6 and B.7), recognizing the concerns expressed by some
countries regarding the procedure of adding emissions and removals
from the land-use change and forestry sector to emissions from the
other sectors to present net figures. Projections of precursors are
presented in table B.8. The footnotes and notes should be treated as
integral parts of the tables; they describe the projections used by
each Party and explain any changes or calculations made by the
secretariat and in updates based on the IDRs. The projections are not
comparable and, in accordance with decision 2/CP.1, individual
national totals are not added.
170. The tables reveal some differences between the 1990 levels
obtained from the inventories and those used as the basis for the
projections. These differences are due to rounding, calibration of
models, updating of inventories subsequent to the projections being
developed, and the fact that some did not include exactly the same
sources in the projections as in the inventories. In four cases (CHE,
DNK, FRA, NLD, SUI), such differences also reflect the use of
adjustments. For CO2 emissions (table B.1), in order to
enhance comparability and transparency, it was necessary to include
two columns for percentage variations. For non-CO2 gases
and the land-use change and forestry sector, one column for
percentage variation sufficed as any differences between comparable
figures were minor. In the case of tables B.6 and B.7, the
projections for all gases mostly reflected only subsets of the
inventory, and other inconsistencies were reported. Thus any
comparison between the projection and inventory figures would be
inappropriate.
171. Twenty Parties provided projections for one or more sectors
for CO2, 17 for CH4 and 15 for N2O.
In addition to the fact that approximately half the Parties did not
report, the definitions of sectors were often not transparent or did
not follow the IPCC format, making assessment of projected trends
problematic. Although more information on sectoral development was
communicated during the IDRs, this information was not necessarily
quantified and comprehensive. For CO2, a clear message is
that all Parties but one (LAT) projected increasing emissions from
transport, while the picture for other sectors was less uniform. The
IDRs confirmed the importance of national circumstances for these
developments. CH4 emissions from agriculture and waste are
often projected to decrease, as are industrial emissions of
N2O and PFCs.
172. Article 12 requires each Party to provide a specific estimate
of the effects that its policies and measures will have on
anthropogenic emissions by its sources and removals by its sinks.
According to the guidelines a specific estimate of total effects
should, to the extent possible, take into account all policies and
measures implemented or committed to since the base year. This
requirement has been implemented in different ways. All Parties that
gave projections represented total effects of policies and measures
in their "with measures" projections for emissions of various gases
and removals by sinks. Approximately half of the Parties gave
separate quantitative estimates for the total effects of policies and
measures for CO2 emissions; some also gave figures for
emissions of other gases and removals by sinks.
173. Some Parties adopted an aggregate approach and estimated the
effects of groups of policies and measures. Others also gave detailed
information on their policies and measures and then aggregated them,
taking into account overlaps and synergies. Yet other Parties gave
estimates for some policies and measures, but did not give figures
for the total. Most Parties reported major methodological problems
related to such estimates. Some Parties made qualitative statements
on the issue, which was sometimes seen as the only possible way to
respond. Only a few documented the methods used in the communication
but the IDRs confirmed that these were normally country specific and
often relatively rough, although a few countries (e.g. AUS, SWE, USA)
had detailed assessments. The IDRs also confirmed that countries
monitor their programmes closely, and monitoring could eventually
provide a basis for such estimates.
174. Most EIT countries constructed two ("business as usual" and
"mitigation") or three ("high", "business as usual", "low") scenarios
to illustrate the near and mid-term effects of policies and measures
that could be implemented. The business-as usual scenario, often
referred to as "most likely or realistic", incorporated major
structural changes and assumed more than a minimum level of
penetration of new technologies and improvements in energy efficiency
and conservation. Some of the Parties identified the high scenarios
as the most subjective, characterized by high economic growth, major
change in economic development pattern, high energy prices improving
energy efficiency, behavioural change towards energy saving and lower
energy demand.
175. The range of reported estimates of total effects in 2000 was
wide for all Parties. Reductions of between 4 and 20 per cent from
baseline scenarios were reported for CO2, and wider ranges
for other gases, reflecting differences in policies, national
circumstances and approaches to the estimates. Owing to the
heterogeneous character of the information, the secretariat was
unable to present it in tables.
176. In general, most of the Parties focused on measures induced
by government policies. To a limited extent, they elaborated on the
effects of actions by individuals or organizations that were not
induced by such policies. Examples of such actions were discussed in
the IDRs. One Party (NLD), for which energy conservation generated
the bulk of estimated CO2 reductions, said that "no
distinction can be made between policy-induced and autonomous effects
on energy conservation". Consequently, their estimate of the effects
of these policies and measures was the difference between projections
with and without energy conservation.
177. The IDR team in Sweden characterized that country's use of
the internationally applied MARKAL model as innovative and
potentially replicable in other countries. This approach made it
possible to assess effects on CO2 emissions of various
energy conservation and renewables programmes on an equal footing
with changes in the tax structure, including introduction of
CO2 taxes. It was estimated that the substantial tax
shifts would account for 70 per cent of the expected reduction of 14
per cent over the decade compared to a baseline, although other
programmes were also seen as quite comprehensive and well
developed.
178. When giving their estimates, several Parties did not
distinguish between policies and measures implemented or committed to
before and after 1990. Some included policies and measures
implemented in the 1990s in their baseline, while others included
those implemented earlier. As policies and measures implemented both
before and after 1990 could have effects on emissions, the IDRs
covered both those included in baselines and those in the "with
measures" scenarios.
179. Parties made considerable efforts to communicate emission
projections. Usually, where the guidelines indicated that Parties
"should" or "are encouraged" to present relevant data, the
information was provided. The majority of the reporting Parties
provided data for the three major greenhouse gases and presented
projections for 2000; more than half of the Parties projected
precursors and removals by sinks, and in several cases projections
for other gases were also reported. Approximately half of the
reporting Parties provided assessments or estimates of the total
effects of measures, ranging from 4 to 20 per cent for CO2
compared to baselines, and a wider range for other gases, often
noting methodological difficulties. The projections are not
comparable between Parties and the individual national totals have
not been added.
180. The projections were developed using different approaches and
assumptions, although the latter were often based on, or in line
with, those used by authoritative international sources. Most Parties
provided enough information to allow for a qualitative understanding
of the approaches used and further elaborated on them during the
IDRs, although it was often not clear from the communications which
policies and measures were reflected. Four Parties adjusted their
base year figures upward to account for electricity imports or
climatic anomalies in the base year.
181. A comparison with inventory data was often not applicable
since either Parties did not make projections for all gases reported
in the inventories, or for all sources, or there were other
differences. Some EIT Parties mentioned difficulties in making robust
projections, due to the high level of uncertainty about economic
growth, effects of the ongoing economic restructuring and
insufficient statistical data.
182. All Parties but two (Monaco, Romania) provided "with
measures" projections for CO2, two Parties (Estonia,
Germany) doing so after their communications were submitted. The
projections reveal a different pattern for CO2 (excluding
land-use change and forestry sector) from that for other greenhouse
gases. Seventeen Parties, accounting for about 61 per cent of 1990
CO2 emissions, projected an increase to 2000 in the
absence of additional measures. Fourteen Parties (Denmark, Germany,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland, United Kingdom and eight EITs)
projected stabilization or decrease for 2000 in comparison to the
base year levels. These represented 38 per cent of the 1990
inventories. In the EITs, the emissions decreased sharply in the
first half of the 1990s. Some of them indicated that in the absence
of additional measures their GHG emissions could start growing from
1994-1995, while still staying below the base year levels in
2000.
183. The IDRs demonstrated that for a number of Parties, higher
growth in GDP, lower energy prices and a different implementation
rate of policies and measures from that previously assumed are
causing higher-than-anticipated growth in CO2 emissions.
For one Party (United Kingdom), reforms in the energy market resulted
in fuel shifts and expected reductions in emissions. During the
in-depth review, two other Parties (Ireland, Spain) reduced their
estimates for the considerable emissions growth expected in this
decade. Adjustments made by four Parties (Denmark, France,
Netherlands, Switzerland) to their 1990 starting points for
projections resulted in figures 3 to 12 per cent higher than the
non-adjusted values, which changed the projections for three
(Denmark, Netherlands, Switzerland) from growth or stabilization to
reductions.
184. The IDRs also indicated that most Parties could face
additional increases in CO2 emissions after 2000 as a
result of economic and/or population growth. In a number of Parties
these increases were attributed to a freeze on new nuclear power
capacity or decisions to phase it out, as well as to more
self-reliance in electricity production. For all Parties but Latvia
that provided sectoral projections, transport emissions were
projected to grow, while both decreases and increases in emissions
were projected for other sectors.
185. For seventeen Parties the land-use change and forestry sector
was projected to remain a net removal, while Australia projected it
to stay a net source, although a smaller one. Some Parties pointed
out that in the longer term net removals will fluctuate around zero.
For eleven Parties net CO2 removals by the land-use change
and forestry sector in 2000 were projected to increase, and three
Parties (Denmark, Germany, United Kingdom) projected removals to
remain stable. Latvia and Sweden indicated that their removals could
be decreasing, while Finland presented a range with substantial
increases and decreases both described as plausible
options.
186. Projections for CH4 emissions were provided by 26
Parties, although four of them did not include all major sectors. All
but three of these Parties (Australia, Canada, Luxembourg),
accounting for 60 per cent of the aggregated inventory figures for
1990, projected stabilization or decreases in CH4
emissions from their base years, thirteen of them projecting
decreases of 10 to 70 per cent. The Parties that projected increases
accounted for 9 per cent of the aggregated inventory figures for
1990. Reductions in CH4 emissions were often expected to
be realized in the second half of the decade, reflecting, in
particular, new waste treatment and disposal policies.
187. Fourteen Parties, accounting for 58 per cent of the
aggregated inventory figure for N2O for 1990, projected
stabilization or decreases compared to their base years, four of them
decreases of more than 35 per cent, often due to expected
improvements in industrial processes. Ten Parties, accounting for 26
per cent of the aggregated inventory figures for 1990, projected
increases, eight of these of less than 10 per cent. Fewer Parties
provided projections for other gases and precursors but for those
that did so, emissions of perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and precursors are
often projected to decrease, while emissions of hydrofluorocarbons
(HFCs) increase as they replace substances being phased out under the
Montreal Protocol.
188. When all projected emissions (excluding land-use change and
forestry) are totalled using IPCC-1994 GWP for all Parties, sixteen
of them (Denmark, France, Germany, Iceland, Luxembourg, Netherlands,
Switzerland, United Kingdom and eight EITs), accounting for 42 per
cent of the aggregated 1990 inventory figure, projected stabilization
or decrease. Fifteen Parties, accounting for 55 per cent of the
aggregated 1990 inventory, projected an increase; three of these
(Japan, New Zealand and United States), accounting for 42 per cent of
the aggregated 1990 inventory, projected an increase of 2 per cent or
less. If unadjusted figures had been compared, one more Party
(Denmark) would have shown an increase, while the other three
(France, Netherlands, Switzerland) that applied adjustments would
still show stabilization or decrease.
189. When the available data for land-use change and forestry
reported by eighteen Parties are aggregated with other projected
emissions, considerable differences between net and gross figures
occur for several Parties. Eighteen Parties, accounting for 76 per
cent of the aggregated inventory figure for 1990, projected
stabilization or decrease for this sector. Eight of these were
Parties with economies in transition. Thirteen Parties, accounting
for 23 per cent of 1990 emissions, projected increases. If unadjusted
figures had been compared, another Party (Denmark) would have shown
an increase, while the other three (France, Netherlands, Switzerland)
that applied adjustments would still have shown stabilization or
decrease.
190. Sixteen Parties provided projections for the year 2000 for
precursors. Of these, three (EST, FRA, GRE) did not report on CO, one
(FRA) did not give projections for NOX, and two (EST, GRE,
HUN) did not forward information on NMVOC. One Party (DEU) only gave
projections for 2005. All reporting Parties, with two exceptions for
NOX emissions (GRE, HUN), expect substantial reductions of
precursor emissions for the year 2000. Many of the Parties that
reported on precursors have accepted stabilization and/or reduction
commitments on NOx and NMVOCs under the UN ECE Convention
on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution.
191. In due course, it will be possible to assess progress towards
achievement of the aim of returning emissions to 1990 levels by 2000
by comparing the inventory figures for these two years. At present, a
comparison of projections for 2000 with inventories for the base year
and the information obtained from the IDRs, suggests that for the
majority of Annex I Parties additional measures would be needed to
return CO2 emissions to their 1990 level by 2000. A
similar comparison made using GWPs for all GHGs combined (excluding
land-use change and forestry sector), indicates that several Annex I
Parties could have difficulties in returning these emissions to their
1990 levels in 2000. Inventory data for 1991-1994 submitted to the
secretariat so far by several of the Annex I Parties seem to justify
this concern. Although an initial rise is not inconsistent with the
aim of returning emissions to 1990 levels by 2000, it suggests that
additional efforts may be needed in the remaining few years.
Nevertheless, during the IDRs some indications were given that in a
number of Parties which projected growth in emissions, return to
their base year levels was felt to be within reach.
192. In accordance with Article 12.3 of the Convention, 20 out of
22 reporting Annex II Parties described measures taken to meet their
commitments outlined in Article 4.3, 4.4 and 4.5. The majority of
Annex II Parties reported on their contributions to the Global
Environment Facility (GEF), some Parties stating explicitly that such
contributions were new and additional. In addition to funding of the
GEF some Parties reported on other means of financing through their
official development assistance (ODA), see table 1.
193. The information that was reported by the
Parties(13) varied considerably in
level of detail and breadth of coverage. Drawing comparisons between
Parties was difficult as the time-frames and levels of expenditures,
and types of assistance were not comparable in all instances.
Information varied as some Parties provided specific figures for
bilateral, regional and multilateral assistance while others provided
a general overview of types and recipients of assistance. The
delineation between general environmental and climate change specific
activities was not always clear, neither in the level of assistance
and time-frame nor in the type of activity (adaptation or
mitigation), and therefore a comparative summary could not be
undertaken.
194. The Global Environment Facility is designated as the entity
entrusted with the operation of the financial mechanism on an interim
basis. Fifteen Parties (AUS, AUT, CAN, CHE, DEU, ESP, FIN, FRA, GBR,
ITA, JPN, NLD, POR, SWE, USA) mentioned their contribution to the
pilot phase; two (DNK, NOR), although being contributors, did not
mention their contribution in the national communications but did so
during the IDRs. Five (GRE, ICE, IRE, LUX, NZL) did not contribute to
the pilot phase.
195. Seventeen Parties (AUS, AUT, CAN, CHE, DEU, DNK, ESP, FIN,
FRA, GBR, IRE, ITA, NLD, NZL, POR, SWE, USA) mentioned their
contributions or pledges to contribute to the replenishment of the
restructured GEF; three (GRE, JPN, NOR), although being contributors,
did not mention their contribution in national communications but the
last two indicated that during the IDRs. Iceland and Luxembourg did
not contribute to the replenished GEF.
196. The figures for the pilot phase and restructured GEF reported
by contributing Parties were consistent with those published by the
GEF secretariat (see table 2). The funding from reporting Parties
constitutes 92 per cent of total funding for the pilot phase and 95
per cent of total funding for the restructured GEF.
197. The GEF provides grant and concessional funds to recipient countries for projects and activities aimed at protecting the global environment. The GEF resources are used to fund four focal areas, one of which is climate change. As of December 1995 the GEF had accepted into its work programme on climate change (pilot phase and restructured GEF) 62 projects totalling US$ 328 million, constituting 36 per cent of total resources allocated to the various focal areas. Although climate change is only one of the four focal areas, the share of climate change projects in total expenditures is envisaged to grow significantly in the coming years.
198. More than half of the Parties mentioned financial resources
as being "new and additional", "additional", "expanded" or "new ways
and means". Seven Parties (AUS, CAN, CHE, GBR, FIN, FRA, NZL)
indicated explicitly or implicitly that their GEF contributions were
new and additional and that they had thus fulfilled their commitment.
Nevertheless, the relevant financial contributions of other Parties
cannot necessarily be considered as not meeting the new and
additional financial resources commitment. It should be noted that
beginning in 1996, member countries of the Development Assistance
Committee (DAC) may report up to a maximum of 84 per cent of their
contributions to the GEF as ODA. This could make it difficult to
distinguish whether GEF contributions are new and
additional.
199. As GEF operations are intended to complement, not substitute
for development aid programmes, resources aim to facilitate projects
with global environmental benefits for which official development
funds are not normally available. The Instrument for the
Establishment of the Restructured GEF (the GEF Instrument) states
that the GEF shall operate "as a mechanism for international
cooperation for the purpose of providing new and additional grant and
concessional funding". Therefore, by agreement of participating
Parties, financing through this mechanism is to be new and
additional.
200. In addition to financial resources provided through the GEF
some Parties mentioned other financial mechanisms such as ODA.
Several Parties indicated their intention to reach the United Nations
suggested level of ODA of 0.7 per cent of GNP in the future. Due to
recent economic and budget difficulties in several donor countries,
ODA has not been increasing in recent years (in real terms it has in
fact declined since1992).
201. After a 5 per cent decline in real terms in 1993, aggregate
ODA increased by $2.5 billion in nominal terms in 1994 according to
preliminary data(14) while remaining
steady in real terms. In 1994 both bilateral grants and contributions
to multilateral institutions increased slightly in real terms while
bilateral loans decreased in real terms. However, for the third
consecutive year ODA as a percentage of OECD Development Assistance
Committee (DAC) members' total GNP declined. In 1994 DAC members'
total ODA as a percentage of their combined GNP was only 0.30, the
lowest level since 1973.
202. The proportion of ODA directly targeted to projects and
programmes with an environmental emphasis has been limited. In 1993,
5 per cent of new ODA commitments were reported as being specifically
for environmental purposes. Of those commitments the majority target
urban and industrial pollution control, but activities related to
natural resource management are increasing.
203. Eighteen Parties reported on bilateral activities and more
than half of those devoted specific sections to the subject in their
communications. Some of the themes discussed included energy
conservation and efficiency, renewable energy, technology transfer,
forest management, capacity building, adaptation and debt
reorganization (debt-for-environment swaps) (see box 9). The
following were the most commonly mentioned activities:
(a) Renewable energy (for example, biomass, hydro, photovoltaic/solar systems and wind) (AUS, CAN, CHE, DEU, ESP, FIN, FRA, GBR, ITA, JPN, NLD, NOR, NZL, SWE, USA);
(b) Energy efficiency (for example, upgrading of transmission
lines, restructuring and demand-side management, such as pricing,
subsidies and tax incentives) (AUS, CAN, CHE, DEU, FIN, FRA, GBR,
ITA, JPN, NLD, NZL, SWE, USA);
(c) Forest management, sink enhancement and afforestation
programmes (AUS, CAN, CHE, DEU, FIN, FRA, GBR, ITA, JPN, NLD, NOR,
NZL, USA);
(d) Energy planning (for example, promoting methodologies and
techniques for rational energy use, and promotion of energy
conservation indirectly through urban planning) (AUS, CAN, CHE, DEU,
DNK FIN, FRA, GBR, ITA, JPN, NLD, USA);
(e) Climate change research (for example, on forestry,
meteorology, methane emissions and sealevel rise (AUS, CAN, CHE, DNK,
FIN, FRA, GBR, ICE, ITA, NLD, USA).
204. More than half of the Parties reported to some degree on
regional activities, although the discussion was limited. Parties
referred to their participation in regional organizations and to
activities carried out on a region-wide basis. The majority of
activities concerned capacity building, such as training and
seminars, support for implementation of national plans and assistance
with emissions inventories, evaluation of impacts and analysis of
response options, and general scientific and technical assistance.
Regional research activities were also noted by a number of
Parties.
205. Multilateral cooperation is an important element in many of
the national communications. Several Parties indicated their support
for multilateral organizations engaged in work related to capacity
building, research, and information transfer. Contributions to the
Global Environment Facility were reported by virtually all Annex II
Parties, but contributions to other multilateral financial
institutions were not reported in a consistent fashion. For example,
although most Annex II Parties make contributions to the World Bank
and various regional development banks, these were reported by a few
Parties only.
206. The majority of Parties mentioned participation in and
support of various multilateral activities and organizations.
Contributions to the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee trust
funds and the IPCC to support these activities, including the funding
of the participation of developing countries was often mentioned.
There was no common approach to reporting the financing of the
various multilateral activities and organizations, but the most
commonly mentioned activities it this connection were:
(a) Activities under the Tropical Forestry Action Programme and the
International Tropical Timber Organization;
(b) The South Pacific Regional Environment Programme for national
participation in multilateral negotiations;
(c) The IEA/OECD GREENTIE programme;
(d) The World Climate Research Programme and the International
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme;
(e) The global shelter strategy (proper urban planning and promotion of energy
conservation) of the United Nations Centre for Human Settlements;
(f) The International Centre for Agroforestry and the Centre for International
Forest Research; and
(g) The various ongoing programmes of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, FAO, OECD and IEA, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
UNDP, UNESCO, UNEP, UNIDO, WMO and multilateral and regional
development banks.
207. In accordance with Article 4.5, which deals with the transfer
of, and access to, technology and know-how, the guidelines request
Annex II Parties to submit information on the transfer of technology
by governments and the private sector. Other Parties in a position to
do so are also urged to assist in facilitating the transfer of such
information.
208. The section of the guidelines on technology transfer is very
general in nature and easily subject to different interpretations by
the Parties. As a result, the information contained in Annex II
communications differs considerably in format, comprehensiveness and
level of detail. Most Annex II national communications also focus on
government-supported multilateral and bilateral cooperation rather
than private sector cooperation. Moreover, discussions held during
the in-depth review visits have revealed that much more information
is available than has been provided in the communications, but has
not been compiled and presented in an organized manner by the
Parties. Therefore, a comprehensive picture of technology transfer
activities is not available at the present stage. Parties may wish to
refer to document FCCC/SBI/1996/5 for a further discussion of this
issue.
209. A number of Parties provided considerable data on their
official development assistance (see section VI.A.2 above), but it
was often difficult to distinguish the portion that was related to
climate change, and the relationship between such multilateral
financing and transfer of technology was not usually
clear.
210. Bilateral cooperation in the transfer of technology was
reported by most Parties, but the comprehensiveness and level of
detail of the information differed greatly. For example, one Party
gave detailed information on more than 30 bilateral projects directed
at greenhouse gas mitigation in developing countries and countries
with economies in transition. Most other Parties, however, provided
only a general overview of their bilateral projects. Some Parties
highlighted information on one or two examples of such
projects.
211. Bilateral cooperation related to the transfer of "hard"
technologies was reported more often than activities related to the
transfer of "soft" technologies through capacity building, training
and research. The technologies most frequently concerned were those
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or enhance carbon sequestration in
forests, to secure energy supply, or to satisfy energy demand in the
residential, commercial, or industrial sectors. Only four Parties
specified bilateral projects that would facilitate climate change
adaptation.
212. Six Parties reported on action they had taken to facilitate
the transfer of technology through the private sector. For the most
part, these activities were directed at linking their own private
sector companies with private companies in developing countries. Some
Parties also indicated that they supported private sector investments
either directly (through joint ventures) or indirectly (by
feasibility studies). The investment flows, in particular the portion
relevant to climate change, were poorly reflected in the national
communications.
213. Under Article 4.5 developed Parties undertake to support the development and enhancement of endogenous capacities of developing countries. The majority of Parties included assistance for capacity building either explicitly or implicitly in their discussions on bilateral channels of assistance. The activities may be summarized as follows:
(a) More than half of the Parties referred to general or managerial training in relation to energy (efficiency and renewable energy), forestry, natural resources, impacts and vulnerability, technology and meteorology;
(b) About half of the Parties reported on country study activities, including development of inventories and databases, identification of mitigation and adaptation response options and development of strategies;
(c) About one third of the Parties mentioned research activities to strengthen the capacity of developing countries, including exchanges and funding of joint projects;
(d) Five Parties referred to capacity-building efforts aimed at meteorological and climatological services;
(e) Only three Parties reported on activities for institution
building, such as the development of legislation and
regulations.
214. Article 4.1(e) requires Parties to cooperate in preparing for
adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Less than half of the
Parties reported explicitly or implicitly on cooperation with
developing countries in activities related to adaptation and
vulnerability assessment.
215. The types of projects and activities that were most often
described dealt with studies of vulnerability assessment and
potential impacts, including natural hazard prevention and disaster
control, adapting agriculture to the impact of climate change,
ecosystem management, coastal zone management, studies of sealevel
rise and capacity building of meteorological services.
216. Half of the Parties reported on activities to assist
countries with economies in transition. The majority of these
cooperative activities related to capacity building and technology
transfer, and were thus relevant to the implementation of Article
4.5.
217. Both bilateral and multilateral activities were reported, as
were activities to promote commercial partnerships. The activities
mentioned encompassed:
(a) Enhancement of capacities through country studies, inventories assistance, and policy planning and formulation;
(b) Institution building through assistance in increasing plant safety (nuclear), improvement of technical systems and stiffening of regulatory regimes;
(c) Transfer of technology through technological and commercial partnerships, including partnerships and cooperative arrangements for pipeline production and gas transportation;
(d) Efforts to increase energy efficiency in the transportation and residential sectors, the conversion of power plants to more efficient technologies, and promotion of renewable energy sources;
(e) The role of the European Union's PHARE and TACIS programmes in providing assistance to the energy sector; and
(f) Mobilization of commercial resources through credits or
feasibility studies for joint ventures.
218. Most of the Parties reported on activities implemented
through bilateral, regional and multilateral channels. Due to the
varying degree and breadth of reporting it was not possible to
quantify aid flows supportive of the Convention at an aggregate level
and it was therefore difficult to draw a comparative summary of the
comprehensiveness of activities.
219. The majority of Parties discussed support for the transfer of
technology through multilateral and bilateral cooperation, and in a
few cases through private sector cooperation. The information
differed considerably in format, thoroughness and level of detail and
consequently a comprehensive portrayal of technology transfer
activities is not possible at this stage. The bilateral cooperation
activities reported were often related to "hard" technologies rather
than to the "soft" technologies of capacity building, training and
research.
220. In their discussions on bilateral channels of assistance, the
majority of Parties either explicitly or implicitly touched on
assistance in capacity building. The areas of assistance most often
referred to were: general or managerial training in relation to
energy (efficiency and renewable energy), forestry, natural
resources, impacts and vulnerability, technology and meteorology;
country study activities, including development of inventories and
databases, identification of mitigation and adaptation response
options and development of strategies; research activities to
strengthen the capacity of developing countries, including exchanges
and funding of joint projects.
221. About half of the Parties reported on cooperation with
developing countries in activities related to adaptation and
vulnerability assessment. The types of projects and activities that
were most often discussed dealt with studies of vulnerability
assessment and potential impacts, including natural hazard prevention
and disaster control, adapting agriculture to the impact of climate
change, ecosystem management, coastal zone management, studies of
sealevel rise and capacity building of meteorological
services.
222. Half of the Parties reported on activities to assist
countries with economies in transition. The majority of these
cooperative activities involved capacity building and technology
transfer, and were thus relevant to the implementation of Article
4.5. The activities included: the enhancement of capacities through
country studies, inventories assistance, and policy planning and
formulation; institution building through assistance for increasing
plant safety (nuclear), improvement of technical systems and
stiffening of regulatory regimes; the transfer of technology through
technological and commercial partnerships, including partnerships and
cooperative arrangements for pipeline production and gas
transportation; efforts to increase energy efficiency in the
transportation and residential sectors, the conversion of power
plants to more efficient technologies, and the promotion of renewable
energy.
A. Expected impacts of climate change, vulnerability
assessment and adaptation
223. With regard to commitments under Article 4.1(b) and (e), 23
national communications discussed, in varying detail, the
vulnerability of ecosystems, economic sectors and society and the
expected impacts of climate change
thereon.(15) The communications
generally treated the expected impacts of climate change and
vulnerability to climate change as a single issue, but more often
addressed the former. The other reporting Parties either did not
indicate any impacts (EST, FRA, HUN, JPN, LAT, LUX, MON, ROM), or
only mentioned isolated possible climate change impacts, or mainly
referred to ongoing or planned research.
224. Fourteen communications included information on a national
climate change scenario (derived from existing models) which was used
as a basis for assessing potential impacts and vulnerability. The
uncertainties regarding the scenarios were noted, particularly the
inadequacy of global models for predicting regional or national
climate change. Different time-scales and key assumptions were used
to predict possible temperature increases or other climate change
impacts.
225. Uncertainties with regard to the predictions of climate
change were mentioned by some Parties as a fundamental problem in
assessing possible impacts of climate change and the consequent
vulnerability of ecosystems, sectors of the economy and society. It
was emphasized that improving the predictions of national or regional
climate change was the essential first step. In addition, many
communications mentioned that impacts and vulnerability were
difficult to assess due to the complexity of the systems and the
interactions among several factors. Italy and Finland stated directly
that there was no measurable impact yet from other than natural
causes. The Russian Federation reported that climate change had an
impact on Russian forestry.
226. In most cases possible impacts and vulnerability were
described qualitatively, but Australia and Bulgaria assessed possible
losses in some crops important for them. The Russian Federation
estimated as possible a 12 per cent decrease in grain and a 5 per
cent increase in pasture productivity, respectively. Slovakia
estimated a decrease of 20 per cent in water resources for the period
1990-2030. The United States estimated the impacts and vulnerability
in terms of the extra costs (in the range of 0.3 to 2 per cent of
GNP) that would be incurred to cope with the impacts or in terms of
damage costs provoked by a temperature increase of 2-3 degrees
Celsius. The Netherlands estimated that the extra costs created by a
sealevel rise of 60 to 100 cm over a period of 100 years would be in
the order of Dfl 11 to 18 billion, respectively. They also estimated
that an unfavourable change in wind direction combined with a 120 per
cent increase in wind intensity would lead to a similar level of
costs. All 23 Parties which reported possible climate change impacts,
referred to negative impacts, but five also mentioned positive
ones.
227. Twenty-one Parties included some discussion of adaptation
measures. Several mentioned the constraints imposed by uncertainties
with regard to the magnitude, timing and regional distribution of
climate change, as well as the potential impacts of those
changes.
228. Eleven Parties mentioned adaptation measures other than research that are already being implemented or are being developed. Most of these measures are also targeted to other current needs. Some Parties also mentioned supporting measures to achieve a better adaptation to climate change impacts such as administrative changes, and management plans and strategies. Also eleven communications mentioned possible adaptation measures to be considered in the future. Some of the measures that Parties have implemented so far are presented below:
(a) Change to mixed stands or changes in border species (AUT, BUL, NLD, RUS, SLO);
(b) Modification of construction design codes and other regulations or measures for coastal construction projects (ITA, NLD, NZL, POR, USA);
(c) Changes in varieties, crop cultivation and other agriculture techniques changes (BUL, GRE, SLO, USA);
(d) Diversification of tourist and recreational activities (CAN);
(e) Promulgation of regulations and laws which focus on climate
change (AUT, POL, SLO, SWE, USA).
229. Thirteen Parties reported on research to assess climate
change impacts and vulnerability or to develop adaptation
strategies.
230. The relatively low degree of reporting about vulnerability
and adaptation by the Parties indicates that the existing level of
uncertainty in regard to this issue is high, rather than a
non-fulfilment of the current guidelines.
231. With regard to Articles 4.1(g) and 5, most Parties included
in their communications some information on research and systematic
observation. On the other hand, the scope of coverage, depth and
level of detail varied widely. In this respect, the IDRs were helpful
in allowing Parties to describe their activities in this field in
sufficient detail.
232. Research activities covered a wide spectrum including
scientific research, climate change impacts and response adaptation
measures. Also receiving considerable attention was research into
greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in the energy field but also
in other areas such as agriculture and forestry.
233. Scientific research included not only atmospheric chemistry
but also studies on regional climate change and sealevel rise.
Considerable attention is being given to the development of global
circulation models (GCMs) and climate system models (CSMs). The
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (in the United
Kingdom) is an excellent example of progress in this area, as was
demonstrated during the IDR.
234. Research into the impacts of climate change is being carried
out in a wide range of sectors including agriculture and forestry,
hydrology and water resources and public health. Impacts on
terrestrial ecosystems and marine and coastal environments are also
receiving attention as are the impacts on extreme weather events.
Research and development in technological and socio-economic fields
were mentioned by several Parties.
235. Considerable research is being carried out in the energy
sector, particularly as concerns energy efficiency and management,
and covering energy use in the industrial, residential and
governmental subsectors as well as in transportation.
236. Although most Parties indicated that current research is
taking place nationally, mainly in government and other recognized
scientific establishments belonging to universities and other
academic institutions, a number also stated that they participated in
international research activities particularly those organized under
the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Man and the Biosphere
(MAB) programme. Many also mentioned their active participation in
the work of the IPCC.
237. Several Parties (CAN, CHE, ESP, FIN, FRA, GBR, IRE, JPN, NLD,
NOR, NZL, POL, SWE, USA) provided information on the funding of
research activities while others made only passing reference. The
manner in which the information was provided, however, was not such
that it could be compared between countries. One Party, for example,
provided detailed budget figures for each research activity while
others indicated only orders of magnitude or in some cases sources of
funding only. No specific mention was made of the transfer of
research results to developing countries.
238. As far as systematic observation is concerned, only about
half of the Parties reporting made reference to activities in this
field. Of these, some mentioned only provisions for monitoring and
measuring greenhouse gas emissions and sinks. Others provided
information on national meteorological, climate and hydrological
networks and on their contributions to international programmes such
as the World Weather Watch (WWW), the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW)
and the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) coordinated by WMO, as
well as the Global Oceans Observing System (GOOS) coordinated by
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO.
239. A number of Parties made reference to national data banks and
archiving activities, as well as to their contributions to
international data banks or programmes such as the European Climate
Support Network, the Global Network for Detection of Stratospheric
Change, the North Atlantic Climatological Data Set (NACD) and the WMO
World Climate Data Centres.
240. With regard to commitments under Articles 4.1(i) and 6, the
issues of public awareness, information dissemination, education,
training and participation were, in general, fairly well described.
Many communications provided an extensive account of the initiatives
taken in this area while others described only a few specific
projects to illustrate the general approach. The coverage and input
of the initiatives were not well documented.
241. Action taken to incorporate scientific, policy and social
dimensions of climate change into the education process was reported
in the area of formal education. Primary and secondary schools were
the main focus, through curricula reform and periodic mailing of
teaching material to schools. Many of the initiatives, however,
referred to general information, of which only a part related to
climate change.
242. Training activities focused on energy efficiency programmes
for architects, maintenance personnel and drivers. Accounts of
managerial and scientific training were less frequent. Training
programmes were mostly designed for practitioners, and in some cases,
"training the trainer" programmes were mentioned.
243. The programmes relating to public awareness focused on
campaigns to provide information on the effects of climate change and
to promote the social acceptability of policies through voluntary
action to reduce emissions. The information campaigns described were
aimed at the general public, although a number did focus on specific
groups, such as motor vehicle users, households, local authorities,
farmers and key industries. Most campaigns were run by governments,
usually under the auspices of environment ministries. In a minority
of cases non-governmental organizations, local authorities and
utilities were reported to have organized independent campaigns. The
themes of the campaigns centred mostly on the promotion of
energy-efficient behaviour for the reduction of CO2
emissions, including practical guidance in some cases. Other areas of
focus included the effects of climate change, the promotion of
renewable energy resources and the protection of forests. The tools
used most frequently were pamphlets, brochures and newsletters,
although many other instruments were mentioned, such as television
and radio broadcasting, advice centres, telephone line services,
fairs, seminars and billboard advertisements.
244. With regard to public participation, a majority of the
communications described explicitly the process leading to the
formulation of the national strategy or action plan to combat climate
change, in which constituencies other than government ministries and
agencies were actively involved. Five Parties (AUS, CAN, CHE, CZE,
DEU) specified that a major consultative process had been launched to
incorporate the opinions of non-governmental organizations, the
business community, local authorities and others.
245. Public participation in the form of collaborative action and
partnerships between the Government and other groups was described in
the majority of communications, although the extent of public
involvement varied considerably. Partnerships were most frequently
described in relation to business, industry, and non-governmental
organizations. Independent initiatives of groups and organizations
outside the public sector were less frequently described. Most
schemes were launched by the business community, but local
authorities and non-governmental organizations also played an
important role.
246. Only a few Parties (e.g. CAN, LAT, NLD) commented on the form
and effectiveness of their education, training and public awareness
programmes. One Party (LAT) stated that it perceived its current
efforts as insufficient, mainly because of financial constraints.
Only one Party (NLD) attempted to quantify the effectiveness of the
actions by evaluating programme results, multidimensional indicators
testing, and monitoring environmental behaviour. One such study
indicated that it appeared difficult to maintain fairly high levels
of public involvement in climate change issues through campaigning
when financial incentives were not a strong enough
motivation.
D. Integrating climate change considerations into policies and the identification and
247. With regard to commitments under Article 4.1(f), several communications made brief reference to climate change considerations in the context of social policies (for example, improvements in education and training, research into the socio-economic impact of climate change and health-related issues). Explicit mention of the incorporation of climate change considerations into economic policies was made in only a few communications. In all of the communications, however, many of the policies described to reduce emissions indicated that countries are including such considerations in economic policy-making. All Parties mentioned specifically the introduction of climate change considerations into environmental policies, in the form of climate change components of national environmental plans, climate change strategies and plans, or the setting up of processes and committees to address the issues.
248. Under Article 4.2(e)(ii), each Annex I Party is required to
"identify and periodically review its own policies and practices
which encourage activities that lead to greater levels of
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases ... than would otherwise
occur". In general, explicit reference to this article was not made.
Most communications, however, did provide instances of changes in
policies and practices (for example, the removal of subsidies,
changes in agricultural policy and land-use practices and changes in
tax structure).
249. During the IDRs many Parties presented extensive information
on the above-mentioned issues. The main findings can be found in the
individual in-depth review reports.
250. According to Article 4.6, a certain degree of
flexibility is to be allowed by the Conference of the Parties to
the EIT Annex I Parties, including with regard to the historical
level of anthropogenic emissions of GHG. Four EIT Parties (BUL, HUN,
POL, ROM) chose base years other than 1990 when reporting their
national emission inventories, referring to the above-mentioned
article. Only a few EIT Parties have so far submitted their inventory
data for years subsequent to 1990, as requested by decision 3/CP.1.
It was not clear from the communications or in-depth reviews whether
these Parties explicitly requested the certain degree of flexibility
referred to in Article 4.6. The Conference of the Parties may wish to
clarify the situation.
251. The guidelines do not specifically mention activities
implemented jointly, and few Parties reported on these activities
in their national communications, although this subject was
frequently raised during the in-depth reviews. For a detailed
discussion of issues related to activities implemented jointly see
document FCCC/CP/1996/14 and Add.1.
| |||||
Party |
Target |
Gas(es) concerned |
Base level |
Target year |
Remarks |
Australia |
stabilization ----------------------------- additional 20% reduction |
GHGs ---------------------------- GHGs |
1988 ------------------ 1988 |
2000 ---------- 2005 |
Providing there are no net adverse impacts nationally, or on trade competitiveness, and if similar measures are taken by other major GHG emitters |
Austria |
20% reduction |
CO2 |
1988 |
2005 |
|
Bulgaria |
should not exceed |
GHGs |
1988 |
2000 |
|
Canada |
stabilization |
net GHGs |
1990 |
2000 |
On a GWP basis |
Czech Republic |
stabilization |
CO2, CH4 and N2O |
1990 |
2000 |
But invokes Art.4.6 flexibility clause |
Denmark |
5% reduction ----------------------------- additional 20% reduction |
CO2 ---------------------------- CO2 |
1990(16)-adjusted ------------------ 1988 -adjusted |
2000 ---------- 2005 |
Additional reduction represents a contribution to the EC common reduction goal and is based on targets for the energy and transport sectors |
Estonia |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
No national target communicated |
Finland |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
No national target communicated |
France |
total Annex I emissions to return to 1990 levels |
CO2 |
1990 |
2000 |
Will undertake cost-effective measures so long as economic competitiveness is not threatened, and supports mitigation efforts to be undertaken at the EC level. |
Germany |
25% reduction |
CO2 |
1990 |
2005 |
|
Greece |
limit CO2 growth to 15% |
CO2 |
1990 |
2000 |
|
Hungary |
return to |
CO2 |
average 1985-1987 levels |
2000 |
|
Iceland |
maintain |
GHGs |
1990 |
2000 |
|
Ireland |
limit CO2 growth to 20% |
CO2 |
1990 |
2000 |
Or 11% net increase including sinks, consistent with EC CO2 stabilization target |
Italy |
limit net carbon-related emissions |
CO2 |
1990 |
2000 |
Reflects EC commitment to stabilize CO2 emissions in the Union as a whole at 1990 levels by 2000 |
Japan |
stabilization ----------------------------- efforts to stabilize ----------------------------- stabilization ----------------------------- stabilization to extent possible |
CO2 on a per capita basis ------------------------------------ total CO2 ---------------------------- CH4 ---------------------------- N2O and other GHGs |
"about" 1990 ------------------ "about" 1990 ------------------ 1990 ------------------1990 |
2000 and beyond ---------- 1994 ----------1994 |
|
Latvia |
stabilization |
GHG |
1990 |
2000 |
"Emission levels may grow after 2000 or even earlier" |
Liechtenstein |
20% reduction |
CO2 |
1990 |
2005 |
|
Luxembourg |
at least a 20% reduction |
CO2 |
1990 |
2005 |
|
Monaco |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
No national target communicated |
Netherlands |
3% reduction ---------------------------- 10% reduction |
CO2 ---------------------------- CH4 |
1990(17)-adjusted ------------------1990 |
2000 ---------- 2000 |
|
New Zealand |
stabilization |
net CO2 |
1990 |
2000 |
|
Norway |
limit CO2 to not exceed 1989 levels in 2000 |
CO2 |
1989 |
2000 |
Preliminary target, to be considered in light of further studies, technological advances, international energy market development, international negotiations and agreements |
Poland |
stabilization |
"emissions" |
1988 |
2000 |
|
Portugal |
limit CO2 growth to 40% |
CO2 |
1990 |
2000 |
Consistent with the EC CO2 stabilization target |
Romania |
for comparison purpose |
GHG |
1989 |
2000 |
No national target communicated |
Russian Federation |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
No national target established, but recognizes FCCC aim as a reference |
Slovakia |
stabilization ----------------------------- 20% reduction |
GHG ---------------------------- CO2 |
1990 ----------------- 1988 |
2000 ---------- 2005 |
|
Spain |
limit energy-related CO2 growth to 25% |
CO2 |
1990 |
2000 |
Affects energy sector emissions only and is consistent with EC CO2 stabilization target |
Sweden |
stabilization |
CO2 from fossil fuel |
1990 |
2000 |
|
Switzerland |
stabilization ----------------------------- further reduction |
CO2 ---------------------------- CO2 and other GHGs |
19902- adjusted ------------------ .. |
2000 ---------- .. |
|
United Kingdom |
return to 1990 levels |
CO2 and each major GHG |
1990 |
2000 |
For CO2: a reduction of 4 to 8% below 1990 levels is expected by 2000 |
United States |
reduction |
net GHGs |
1990 |
2000 |
On a GWP basis |
1. For COP 1 decisions see FCCC/CP/1995/7/Add.1.
2. The term "national communications" includes communications from the regional economic integration organization included in Annex I to the Convention and should also be interpreted as including any supplementary information provided to the secretariat by Parties.
3. Submission due date 15 October 1996.
4. Submission due date 21 September 1994.
5. Submission due date 22 December 1995.
6. All references to "Parties" in this document are to "Annex I Parties", unless otherwise indicated.
7. See FCCC/CP/1996/12/Add.2, table A.10.
8. Emissions from fuel sold to any air or marine vessel engaged in international transport.
10. CORINAIR is the component dealing with air emissions inventories of the European Community's CORINE (Coordination d'Information Environnementale) Programme.
11. 11 Some Parties treated the use of fossil fuel as a reducing agent in technological processes in the category of industrial energy end-use, but in this document it is discussed in the industrial processes section.
12. See FCCC/CP/1996/12/Add.2.
13. All references to Parties in this section are to Parties included in Annex II.
14. Development Assistance Committee Report 1995, OECD.
15. "Vulnerability" and "impact" are defined as in the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, WMO/UNEP, Geneva, 1994, p.3.