Distr.
GENERAL
FCCC/SBSTA/1997/2
4 February 1997
Original: ENGLISH
SUBSIDIARY BODY FOR SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL ADVICE
Fifth session
Bonn, 25 - 28 February 1997
Item 3 of the provisional agenda
COOPERATION WITH RELEVANT INTERNATIONAL
ORGANIZATIONS
Progress report on research and systematic
observation
Note by the
secretariat
I. INTRODUCTION
A. Mandate and scope of the
note
1. At its third session in July 1996, when discussing "Research
and Observation issues", the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and
Technological Advice (SBSTA) welcomed the activities of the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission (IOC), and other participants developing the
Climate Agenda. These organizations were invited to inform the SBSTA
on recent activities to coordinate long-term monitoring and research
programmes related to the oceans and the atmosphere in support of
Article 5 of the Convention, particularly the establishment of
capacity and capacity-building mechanisms to assist the full
participation of developing countries
(see FCCC/SBSTA/1996/13, para. 62).
2. In response to this invitation, WMO, in consultation with IOC,
and, to the extent necessary and possible, other organizations
participating in the development of the Climate Agenda, has provided
information which is presented in the attached annex.
3. This note is an introduction to the information provided by WMO
and contains suggestions on possible action which the SBSTA may wish
to take in response to that information.
GE.97-
B. Background information
4. Article 5 of the Convention states that "In carrying out their
commitments under Article 4, paragraph 1 (g), the Parties
shall:
(a) Support and further develop, as appropriate, international and
intergovernmental programmes and networks or organizations aimed at
defining, conducting, assessing and financing research, data
collection and systematic observation, taking into account the need
to minimize duplication of effort;
(b) Support international and intergovernmental efforts to
strengthen systematic observation and national scientific and
technical research capacities and capabilities, particularly in
developing countries, and to promote access to, and the exchange of,
data and analyses thereof obtained from areas beyond national
jurisdiction; and
(c) Take into account the particular concerns and needs of
developing countries and cooperate in improving their endogenous
capacities and capabilities to participate in the efforts referred to
in subparagraphs (a) and (b) above."
5. Article 4, paragraph 1 (g) of the Convention states that
Parties shall "Promote and cooperate in scientific, technological,
technical, socio-economic and other research, systematic observation
and development of data archives related to the climate system and
intended to further the understanding and to reduce or eliminate the
remaining uncertainties regarding the causes, effects, magnitude and
timing of climate change and the economic and social consequences of
various response strategies."
6. At its second session in February and March 1996, the SBSTA
took note of the information provided by the WMO and a number of
Parties, relevant to the implementation of Article 5 of the
Convention. It requested the secretariat to prepare a summary report
on research and observation issues, with attention to Article 5, and
particularly to Article 5(c) of the Convention, in close
collaboration with Parties and concerned organizations, and taking
into account the recommendations of the Second Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This report was
to be considered at the third session of the SBSTA and subsequently
by the Conference of the Parties (COP) (FCCC/SBSTA/1996/8,
para.32).
7. At its third session in July 1996, the SBSTA considered the
report and invited WMO, IOC and other participants to provide
information as outlined in paragraph one above. Furthermore, the
SBSTA requested the secretariat to explore the situation with respect
to other areas of research, observation and data processing, relevant
to Articles 5 and 4.1(g), and report on this, as appropriate, at a
future session or sessions of the SBSTA.
II. POSSIBLE ACTION BY THE SBSTA
8. The SBSTA may wish to:
(a) Take note of the information provided in the attached
annex;
(b) Invite the WMO, the IOC and other organizations participating
in the Climate Agenda to continue efforts to improve systematic
observation of climate and climate change and to promote relevant
research on climate change issues;
(c) Request WMO, IOC and other organizations participating in the
Climate Agenda to keep the SBSTA informed on developments regarding
systematic observation and research issues relating to climate change
and particularly concerning difficulties encountered, inter
alia, with respect to the involvement of developing
countries;
(d) Invite Parties to pursue their efforts to meet their
commitments under
Article 4, paragraph 1(g) and Article 5 of the Convention, and to
provide information thereon in their national
communications;
(e) Request the secretariat to cooperate with WMO, IOC and other
organizations participating in the Climate Agenda to identify the
needs of Parties, in particular developing country Parties, and to
promote capacity building mechanisms to assist the full participation
of developing countries in systematic observation of climate and
relevant research; and
(f) Invite the Global Environment Facility (GEF), through the
Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI), to support the efforts of
Parties, and particularly the least developed countries, to improve
the systematic observation of climate and climate change and related
research activities.
Annex
Summary report by WMO, in consultation with other
organizations
participating in the Climate Agenda, on
international co-ordinated
research and systematic observations
programmes(1)
9. This document represents an update of the summary
report on research and systematic observations submitted to the third
session of SBSTA (FCCC/SBSTA/10/Add1). This update was prepared in
response to the request made by the SBSTA to inform it on recent
activities to co-ordinate long-term monitoring and research
programmes related to the oceans and to the atmosphere in support of
Article 5 of the Convention (FCCC/SBSTA/1996/13, para.
62).
A.
Research(2)
10. Coordination of International climate research
programmes and activities is being promoted through the Climate
Agenda - an integrating framework for international climate related
programmes - in which WMO, UNEP, UNESCO and its IOC, FAO, WHO and
ICSU are the major partners. Major emphasis has been placed on the
co-ordination among these major research programmes - WCRP (WMO,
ICSU, IOC), IGBP (ICSU) and IHDP (ICSU, ISSC).
11. The World Climate Research Programme, has, among other
projects, the Climate Variability and Predictability Study (CLIVAR)
as the main thrust to explore climate variations on time scales of
months to a century or more, occurring naturally or as a result of
anthropogenic effects. As regards anthropogenic climate change, a key
activity in CLIVAR is the development of the detailed pattern-based
studies of observed and modelled climate trends, which underpin the
attribution of changes to human or other factors. Scientific progress
in this area can be illustrated by a far-reaching new conclusion in
the IPCC's Second Assessment Report, namely that "the balance of
evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate".
This conclusion was made possible by major research advances in
modelling of natural climate variability and of climate forcing by
greenhouse gases and aerosols, as well as by new techniques in
pattern recognition.
12. At the same time, increasing reliance is being placed
on seasonal predictions of climate in order to combat drought and
desertification and to improve agricultural production and water
management. A major contribution to improved seasonal predictions has
been made by the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) study, which
led to improved predictions of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events
influencing weather and climate in many regions. If the observational
systems can be maintained, countries will not go unwarned in future
of events like El Nino in 1983, with its severe effects in many
regions. The WCRP also is beginning to investigate improved
assessment of regional changes.
13. The WCRP is being implemented with the active support
of major space agencies. In particular, a global climate parameter
data set on cloudiness, precipitation and water vapour will be
developed by merging space base and in situ data sets within the
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX).
14. In the area of oceanographic research, major
contributions to the studies of the ocean circulation are provided by
the WCRP World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE). Further research
programmes should, as identified by the IOC, include, as a matter of
principle, studies of balance of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases, in particular studies of coral reefs as carbon accumulation
sinks.
15. Research into variations of the global sea level and
projections of its change should continue to receive a priority. Full
use should be made of available global sea level data obtained
through the IOC Global Sea Level Ocean Services System (GLOSS);
further enhancement and upgrading of the GLOSS should be
ensured.
16. A Conference on the "World Climate Research Programme:
Achievements, Benefits and Challenges" forthcoming in August 1997,
will establish strategies for the next 10-15 years, taking into
account the IPCC's SAR and the increased interest of policy-makers in
the climate change issue.
17. The Conference will provide for interaction between
those concerned with climate policy and scientists actively involved
in climate system research to chart a productive course for the
remaining years of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st.
A particular focus of the Conference will be on the role of the WCRP,
as the research thrust of the "Climate Agenda". "New Frontiers in
Climate Science and Prediction". Policy makers' views on the
interactions with other components of related climate programmes will
be sought. This will include consideration of coordination needed
with the applications, impacts and data components of the overall
World Climate Programme, the Global Climate, Ocean and Terrestrial
Observing Systems (GCOS, GOOS, GTOS), the International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and the International Human Dimensions of
Global Environmental Change Programme (IHDP). The results required
from the WCRP to enable other thrusts of the "Climate Agenda" and
other components of the WCP (e.g. the Climate Information and
Prediction Services (CLIPS)) to achieve their objectives will also be
identified. The outcome of the Conference will be made available to a
future session of the SBSTA.
18. Among capacity building initiatives in the area of
climate research, an important role belongs to the network called
START (the global change System for Analysis, Research and Training)
being developed by WCRP, IGBP and IHDP. START is developing a system
of regional networks and centres to conduct training and research on
global environmental change and its human causes and effects. The
fundamental purpose of this system is to promote research on the
regional origins and impacts of global environmental changes such as
global warming, and through training and fellowship programmes, to
enhance indigenous scientific capacity to engage in focused research
on critical regional environmental issues of global
importance.
19. WCRP, IGBP and IHDP have jointly initiated a START
project on climate variability predictions for agriculture, which is
taken up in several START regions (South Asia, South-east Asia, West
and Central Africa) and which needs the co-operation of IGBP core
projects and WCRP projects. Preparing agriculture for adaptation to
climate variability is a prerequisite to reduce vulnerability to
climate and thus helps to approach sustainability.
B. Climate Change
Assessment
20. At its Twelfth Session (Mexico City, 11-13 September
1996), the IPCC elected Dr R.T. Watson of the USA to succeed Prof.
Bolin as chairman. Prof. Bolin will serve until the end of the
Thirteenth Session (tentatively scheduled for 27-31 October 1997 in
the Maldives) when Dr Watson will assume the office.
21. Since the last session of the Bureau, the IPCC has
published the 1995 Reports of its three Working Groups in English and
its Report (containing the IPCC Synthesis and the Summaries for
Policy makers of the Working Groups) in the six official UN
languages. (The Working Groups' Reports and the IPCC Report
constitute the Second Assessment Report). It has completed and
published a Technical Paper on Technologies, Policies and Measures
for Mitigating Climate Change in English, French and
Spanish.
22. The IPCC will be electing a new Bureau at the
Thirteenth Session and will agree on the subject matter and schedule
of its Third Assessment Report. During 1997-1998, it
will:
complete three Technical Papers on stabilization of
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, climate models and
the climate implications of available proposals to limit greenhouse
gas emissions;
prepare four Special Reports on Regional Climate Change
Impacts, Emission Scenarios, Aviation and the Global Atmosphere and
the Methodological and Technological Aspects of Technology Transfer;
hold three workshops on adaptation, economic impacts of
the actions of Annex I Parties to the UN FCCC on all countries and
integrated assessment modelling;
continue its programme of work on National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories;
initiate work on the Third Assessment.
C. Impact and adaptation
strategies
23. A major role in research and capacity building in this
area belongs to the World Climate Impact Assessment and Response
Strategies Programme (WCIRP). Participation in the United Nations'
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has heightened
interest in climate matters including climate impact study while
employment of resources generated through the Global Environmental
Facility has increased research programmes, methodology development
and identification of climate change mitigation and adaptation
options. Unfortunately, lesser attention is devoted to the impacts of
climate variability including prediction of and preparation for the
impacts of severe weather events including drought, storms and
floods. UNEP as the international organization responsible for the
WCIRP, has initiated several programmes on these important issues,
which are considered as an indispensable part of any study and/or
methodology development increasing impact of, and adaptation to
climate change.
24. The current WCIRP programme has been aligned with the
proposed plan for the Climate Agenda and concentrates on studies of
climate impact assessments and response strategies and capacity
building activities following priority items:
(a) Climate related Country
Studies
Some 25 national studies have been completed or are
on-going in order to improve the IPCC guidelines for identifying
impacts of climate change and of the range of response options that
might be considered in adapting to climate change as well as for
making inventories of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases and
for analysing and comparing costs of greenhouse gas abatement costing
strategies.
(b) Climate Impacts and Response Strategies
Networks (CIRSNet)
The main objectives of this essentially capacity building
network is to catalyse, facilitate and assist in the development and
implementation of national and regional activities on climate and
climate change impacts. CIRSNet/Africa is operating with 21
government designated national focal points and an inter-agency
advisory group.
25. Plans for the further implementation of the WCIRP
until the year 2000 and beyond address five priority areas:
vulnerable regions and sectors, methodologies for vulnerability
assessment, adaptations to reduce vulnerabilities, mitigation
response options and public awareness and communication.
D. Systematic observations of the atmosphere
and ocean
26. Several years ago, WMO, IOC, UNEP, and ICSU
established the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) to meet the
needs for a comprehensive climate observing system. In concept, the
GCOS programme was charged to provide comprehensive information on
the total climate system to meet the needs for:
- climate system monitoring, climate change detection and
monitoring of the impacts of and the response to climate
change;
- data for application to national economic
development;
- research toward improved understanding, modelling and
prediction of the climate system.
GCOS was identified and endorsed as the mechanism to
provide essential climate observations in support of the Climate
Agenda. As a result, GCOS constitutes the programme to develop
comprehensive plans and strategies for gathering, analysing, and
disseminating essential climate information in the context of Article
5 of the Climate Convention.
27. Planning and implementation of GCOS is being pursued
through the work of a number of expert panels charged to develop
comprehensive plans for review and approval by the GCOS Joint
Scientific and Technical Committee and the international sponsoring
organizations. Recently, plans have been published for the overall
programme, for the ocean and the land surface components, for
space-based observations, and for data and information management.
These plans delineate the specific variables needed, the spatial and
temporal sampling required, the most appropriate techniques and
methodologies, and the products that should result from the analysis
of the observations. In this way, GCOS provides an observational base
for climate research, services, and impacts.
28. As a fundamental principle of its implementation, GCOS
was to be built to the degree possible on existing operational and
scientific observing, data management and information distribution
systems by proposing enhancements to these systems so they better
satisfy climate requirements. Among these systems, WWW and GAW of the
WMO, the Integrated Global Ocean Services System (IGOSS) coordinated
by IOC and WMO and the IOC Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS)
should be mentioned. To date, networks for GCOS have been established
for upper-air and surface meteorology, for tropical and southern
hemisphere ocean observations, and for ecological
variables.
29. Many other components are currently being developed as
part of the overall implementation strategy in collaboration with the
Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and the Global Terrestrial
Observing System (GTOS), both sponsored by organizations - partners
in the Climate Agenda. GTOS will address the terrestrial variables
needed to describe ecological, hydrological and cryospheric processes
which influence climate change and characterize climate impacts. GOOS
is a major source of comprehensive information on the state of the
global ocean in a wide range of time and space scales. These three
systems working in concert, should be able to ensure the necessary
data for climate research impact assessments and provision of climate
services for negotiations by the Parties of their future efforts to
implement the UN/FCCC. These and future cooperative efforts with
international and national organizations should enable the Parties of
the Convention to take full advantage of the GCOS programme to fulfil
aspects of the Climate Convention.
Appendix
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
CIRSNet Climate Impact and Response Strategies Network
CLIPS Climate Information and Prediction Services
CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability
FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United
Nations
GAW Global Atmosphere Watch
GCOS Global Climate Observing System
GEWE Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment
GLOSS Global Sea Level Observing System
GOOS Global Ocean Observing System
GTOS Global Terrestrial Observing System
ICSU International Council of Scientific Unions
IGBP International Geosphere Biosphere Programme
IGOSS Integrated Global Ocean Services System
IHDP International Human Dimensions of Global
Environmental Change Programme
IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ISSC International Social Science Council
START System for Analysis, Research and Training
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organization
WCIRP World Climate Impact Assessment and Response
Strategies Programme
WCP World Climate Programme
WCRP World Climate Research Programme
WDC World Data Centre
WHO World Health Organization
WMO World Meteorological Organization
WWW World Weather Watch
- - - - -
1. This paper is reproduced without
formal editing.
2. See list of abbreviations at the end
of this annex.