Distr.
GENERAL
FCCC/SBSTA/1996/18
4 December 1996
ENGLISH ONLY
SUBSIDIARY BODY FOR SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL ADVICE
Fourth session
Geneva, 16-18 December 1996
Item 3 of the provisional agenda
Paragraphs Page
I. INTRODUCTION 1 - 9 2
A. Mandate 1 - 6 2
B. Scope of the note 7 - 8 3
C. Possible action by the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and 9 3
Technological Advice
II. BACKGROUND 10 - 17 3
III. ISSUES FOR CONSIDERATION BY THE SUBSIDIARY BODY 18 - 22 5
FOR SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL ADVICE
Status report on initial list of items on which the Intergovernmental Panel 7
on Climate Change could provide input to the Subsidiary Body for Scientific
and Technological Advice
GE.96-
1. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in
existence since 1988, is a major source of scientific and technical
advice to the Convention process. Article 21.2 of the Convention
requires the secretariat to cooperate closely with the IPCC to ensure
that the Panel can respond to the need for objective scientific and
technical advice.
2. At its first session, the Conference of the Parties (COP), by
its decision 6/CP.1,(1) invited the
officers of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological
Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) to
submit, after due consultation with their respective bodies,
proposals for future cooperation between the SBSTA and the SBI and
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to the second session
of the Conference of the Parties. The SBSTA, at its first session,
developed a list of items on which the IPCC could provide assistance
(FCCC/SBSTA/1995/3). The list was considered preliminary and subject
to changes, modifications, refinements and additions. The SBSTA
requested the Bureau to hold joint meetings with the officers of the
IPCC and report to each of its sessions on the outcome of these
meetings.
3. The SBSTA, at its second session, noted with appreciation the
decisions taken by the IPCC at its eleventh session in Rome (December
1995) on its future work programme and, particularly, that it
intended to prepare a Third Assessment Report by around 2000 and to
continue work on methodologies for greenhouse gas inventories. The
SBSTA also considered the conclusions of the meetings of the Joint
Working Group (JWG) of officers of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the IPCC
(FCCC/SBSTA/1996/6). It requested the IPCC to undertake activities in
support of the SBSTA and to advise the SBSTA accordingly
(FCCC/SBSTA/1996/8). Furthermore, the SBSTA requested the secretariat
to take the above-mentioned list as the basis for the financial
contribution to the IPCC in 1996, as provided in the Convention
budget. Finally, the SBSTA requested its Chairman to continue the
series of meetings of the Joint Working Group. The list of items on
which the IPCC could provide input to the SBSTA is provided in the
annex below. The list includes a column describing the current status
of each item.
4. At its third session, the SBSTA took note of the information on
the work undertaken by the IPCC in response to requests from the
SBSTA and the Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM); it expressed
its satisfaction with the cooperation between the SBSTA and the IPCC,
inter alia, through their respective Bureaux and
secretariats; it welcomed the plans of the IPCC to prepare technical
papers, workshops and special reports, as indicated in document
FCCC/SBSTA/1996/10; and invited the secretariat to keep it informed
on the progress and outcome of the IPCC work
(FCCC/SBSTA/1996/13).
5. At its second session, the COP focused on the Second Assessment
Report. By its decision 6/CP.2,(2) it
noted the need to consider the report as a whole; considered it to be
the most comprehensive and authoritative assessment now available of
the scientific and technical information regarding global climate
change; expressed its appreciation to the IPCC, particularly its
Chairman, and all its authors and scientists for their excellent
work; welcomed the commitment of the IPCC to undertake the work
programme requested in support of the SBSTA and the Ad Hoc Group on
the Berlin Mandate; and urged continuing cooperation between the
Convention bodies and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(FCCC/CP/1996/15/Add.1).
6. The IPCC held its twelfth session from 11 to 13 September 1996
in Mexico City. The Joint Working Group of the officers of the UNFCCC
and the IPCC held a meeting on 8 September 1996 in Geneva (see
section II below).
7. This note provides background information on the status of IPCC activities
(section II) and lists issues arising from the IPCC plenary and
the JWG meeting (section III) that require consideration by the
SBSTA, in particular (a) the revised work programme for technical
papers and special reports being prepared by the IPCC for the SBSTA;
(b) the need for consultations on assumptions for emission profiles
beyond the year 2010; and (c) future activities on emissions
associated with harvested wood products.
8. The IPCC Revised 1996 Guidelines for National Greenhouse
Gas Inventories are considered in the addendum to this note
(FCCC/SBSTA/1996/18/Add.1). The possible role of the IPCC, and other
international organizations, in support of a longer-term programme of
work on methodological issues related to the Convention is
addressed in document FCCC/SBSTA/1996/16.
9. The SBSTA may wish to take note of sections II and III below,
bearing in mind any conclusions it might reach regarding the issues
considered in documents FCCC/SBSTA/1996/18/Add.1 and
FCCC/SBSTA/1996/16 and, on that basis, take decisions pertaining to
cooperation with the IPCC.
Twelfth session of the IPCC held in Mexico City
10. At its twelfth session, the IPCC approved its programme of
work for 1997 and accepted the Revised 1996 Guidelines for
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The revised guidelines are
summarized in the addendum to the present note. The IPCC deferred a
decision on a greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory module related to
harvested wood products. It requested that the SBSTA be consulted on
the matter because of the broader policy implications. This module
will be published as a technical discussion paper and a meeting of
experts will be held in 1997.
11. The IPCC also considered the list of issues identified by the SBSTA at its third session. It developed a revised work programme for technical papers and special reports
(see annex below).(3) According to
the revised schedule, a technical paper on "Technologies, policies
and measures for mitigating climate change" will be available for the
fourth session of the SBSTA and the fifth session of the AGBM, and
two further technical papers will be completed in February 1997.
Other technical papers have been delayed and several will be issued
as special reports to comply with IPCC requirements for review of
such papers (see below).
12. The IPCC agreed to initiate two special reports in 1997 that are not listed in the annex. One report on aviation and the global atmosphere will be prepared in collaboration with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the Ozone Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol, and another will be prepared on GHG emission scenarios. The IPCC further agreed to hold four workshops in 1997 on the following topics:
Integrated assessment modelling - March 1997
Economic impacts of any proposed
new commitments by Annex I Parties
on all Parties - third quarter of 1997
Regional climate change projections
for impact assessment - third quarter of 1997
Adaptation - 1997 (to be determined)
13. The IPCC approved a budget of approximately 1 million SwF for
further work on greenhouse gas inventories in 1997. The work
programme will support expert meetings on four topics:
Comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates of global emissions
Harvested wood products
Land-use change and forestry
Updated emission factors and default data
The programme also provides for the publication of the Reference
Manual, Workbook and Reporting Instructions of the revised inventory
guidelines.
14. The IPCC plenary identified two issues on which it wishes to
consult the SBSTA; in particular, the direction of its work on
emissions associated with harvested wood products and guidance on the
assumptions for emission profiles beyond the year 2010. Consultations
on the latter issue are needed in order for the IPCC to respond to
the SBSTA list of items, and especially for information on the
implications of different emission limitation proposals on projected
temperature increases, sealevel rise and other changes.
Meeting of the JWG, 8 November 1996
15. A meeting of the Joint Working Group of the officers of the
UNFCCC and the IPCC was held on 8 November 1996 in Geneva. It was
informed that the IPCC had begun consideration of the structure of
the Third Assessment Report and of ways to produce the report. The
schedule for the report will be decided at the thirteenth session of
the IPCC in 1997. The JWG was briefed on current efforts to produce
technical papers and special reports as well as on the revised
schedule proposed by the IPCC. It agreed to provide the new schedule
to the SBSTA, without comment, for consideration. It was also
informed that a copy of the Reference Manual for the revised
inventory guidelines would be available for the fourth session of the
SBSTA.
16. The JWG also considered the issue of harvested wood products.
It was suggested that the SBSTA is the appropriate body to determine
how emissions from harvested wood products should be allocated. The
JWG noted the need to assess the precedents and implications of the
issue, including, for example, the practical problems that could
arise in data collection and the possible relationship to
international trade.
17. It was agreed that the Chairman and other officers of the IPCC
would brief the SBSTA and the AGBM on its work, and that the
briefings would cover the revised schedule for technical papers and
special reports; the technical paper entitled, "Technologies,
policies and measures for mitigating climate change"; the revised GHG
inventory guidelines; and the possible assumptions related to
emission profiles beyond the year 2010.
18. The SBSTA may wish to give consideration to the following
issues.
IPCC work programme
19. The IPCC has agreed to a revised programme of work for its activities in support of the Convention (see annex). The reasons for the revised programme vary by topic, but include:
(a) insufficient new scientific and technical information (for
example, on detection of climate change), (b) significant new
information warranting a full IPCC expert review (for example,
country study information on regional impacts), and (c) the need for
additional time to develop a sound technical response (for example,
on methodological and technological aspects of technology transfer).
The SBSTA may wish to consider whether the schedule meets
its needs, including whether some products will
still be timely upon completion, and
whether any other options to develop technical papers should
be pursued, recognizing that the IPCC is making a
substantial effort to develop its technical papers and special
reports quickly. In view of the long lead time to develop
scientifically credible products, the SBSTA may also wish to consider
whether other issues should be added to the original list of
items for consideration by the IPCC, or if it wishes
to identify issues for the Third Assessment Report.
Long-term emission profiles
20. In considering how to respond to the request of the SBSTA for
information on the implications of different emission limitation
proposals on projected temperature increases, sealevel rise and other
changes, the IPCC decided to seek the views of the SBSTA. In
particular, there is a need for dialogue between the SBSTA and the
IPCC about the assumptions underlying possible future emission
profiles. Two questions may be particularly relevant. First,
what assumptions should be made concerning the economic, social and
other goals of Annex I Parties between 2000 and 2010 and beyond the
year 2010 that are likely to affect GHG emissions from the energy and
other sectors? And second, what assumptions should
be made concerning the economic, social and other goals likely to be
undertaken by non-Annex I Parties in the future that are likely to
affect GHG emissions from the energy and other sectors? The
exploration of this topic would employ models as used in the Second
Assessment Report and would explore the sensitivity of the results to
the range of assumptions. If the SBSTA can reach agreement on these
issues at its fourth session, the IPCC anticipates that it will be
able to respond by mid-1997.
21. The IPCC will present a set of emission profiles at the fourth
session of the SBSTA for consideration. The SBSTA may wish to
bear in mind the following boundries when considering how to respond
to the IPCC, for example:
(a) Case 1: No further actions are undertaken by any Parties
(b) Case 2: Annex I Parties initate further actions
(c) Case 3: Annex I and non-Annex I Parties initiate further
actions
Harvested wood products
22. The SBSTA may wish to consider whether the
secretariat, in cooperation with the IPCC, should prepare a scoping
study on the allocation of harvested wood products in emission
inventories. The purpose of the paper would be to identify
the range of policy and operational issues related to possible
inventories of GHG associated with the harvesting of wood
products.
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Regional scenarios of climate change |
Recommendations on scenario development in 1996/1997 for application in impacts assessments |
Workshop and Special Report1 |
Workshop in 2nd half 1996; Special Report to be determined by IPCC-XII |
Workshop held in November 1996/ Follow-up workshop planned 2nd half 1997* |
Regional impacts of climate change |
a) Integration of sectoral impact assessments in Second
Assessment Report, with focus on vulnerabilities, regional
aspects, and critical zones, with consideration of issues
related to Article 4.8, 4.9, 4.10 b) Development of vulnerability indicators |
a) Technical paper2 b) Special Report1 |
a) Late 1996/early 1997 b) To be determined by IPCC-XII |
a) Draft technical paper has been converted into a Special Report by IPCC decision so as to include information from country studies - late 1997 b) Meeting of experts convened by Netherlands for IPCC |
Full scientific assessments |
A full assessment of the science, impacts, adaptation, mitigation, economic and social aspects of climate change |
Third Assessment Report |
Third Assessment Report (2000) |
On schedule |
Detection of climate change |
Research on this topic to be monitored and assessed by IPCC |
Special Report |
To be determined by IPCC-XII |
No significant new scientific information* |
Emissions inventory methodologies |
IPCC will continue preparation of information for Phase II Guidelines, in cooperation with, inter alia, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, particularly revisions for CH4 |
Revised IPCC Guidelines on GHG inventories |
Three workshops planned in 1st/2nd quarters 1996; Adoption at IPCC-XII |
Revised 1996 Guidelines approved at IPCC-XII |
Methodological and technological aspects of technology transfer |
Synthesis of information in Second Assessment Report, to assess experience on such issues as: (i) types of transfer, technology evaluation, and options; (ii) sectors targeted; (iii) role of participants (for example, governments, private sector, IGOs, NGOs); (iv) approaches to promoting cooperation; (v) issues related to capacity building |
Technical Paper2 |
Early 1997 |
Technical paper converted to Special Report by IPCC decision -1998 |
Evaluation of technologies |
Assessment of major constraints to innovative, state-of-the-art technologies, and promising approaches for overcoming them |
Technical paper2 Special Report* |
Early 1997 To be determined by IPCC-XII |
Scoping paper to be available at IPCC-XIII* |
Modelling of stabilization scenarios towards addressing Article 2 |
a) Scenarios and pathways for global stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations to meet a range of possible targets for rates of temperature and sealevel change and absolute temperature and sealevel change, and economic considerations |
Technical paper2 |
Early 1997 |
February 1997 |
Implications of emission limitations |
a) Assess the economic impacts on all Parties, including
non-Annex I Parties, of any proposed new commitments to be
undertaken by Annex I Parties b) Assess the implications of different emissions limitation proposals including any proposed new commitments to be undertaken by Annex I Parties on projected temperature increases, sealevel rise and other changes in climate |
a) Technical paper2 Special Report1 b) Technical paper2 Special Report1 |
a) Early 1997 To be determined by IPCC-XII b) Early 1997 To be determined by IPCC-XII |
a) Workshop 1997 (Will also address "Impacts of Response
Measures"; see
below)* b) Mid -1997* |
Adaptation measures |
Adaptation options, enhancing resilience of systems, and costs of adaptation |
Workshop (1997) Special Report1 |
To be determined by IPCC-XII |
Expert group meeting in early 1997/Workshop 1997* |
Integrated assessment modelling |
Integrated assessment modelling including land-use considerations, with a focus on meeting the needs of, and building capacity in developing countries |
Workshop(s) Special Report1 |
1996/1997 To be determined by IPCC-XII |
Workshop 10 -12 March 1997 Tokyo Japan* |
Simple climate models |
Status of simple climate models |
Technical paper2 |
1996/1997 |
February 1997 |
Impacts of response measures |
Identification of technical, socio-economic, and environmental aspects of Article 4.8, 4.9 and 4.10 |
Special Report1 |
To be determined by IPCC-XII |
Workshop 1997* |
Notes
1 Initiation of all Special Reports is subject to approval by the IPCC at its twelfth session. Special Reports will follow the full IPCC review and approval procedures and require approximately 18 months for preparation and approval.
2 Technical papers will require approximately 6 to 9 months for preparation, review and release by the Bureau of the IPCC.
* No special report in 1997 work programme