Distr.
GENERAL
FCCC/SBSTA/1996/7
22 February 1996
ENGLISH ONLY
SUBSIDIARY BODY FOR SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL ADVICE
Second session
Geneva, 27 February - 4 March 1996
Item 4 (a) of the provisional agenda
Paragraphs Page
I. INTRODUCTION 1 - 4 3
A. Mandate 1 3
B. Scope of the note 2 - 4 3
II. STRUCTURE OF THE SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT 5 - 10 3
III. GENERAL OBSERVATIONS 11 - 20 5
A. Introduction 11 - 13 5
B. Availability of the Report 14 5
C. Representativeness of the Report 15 5
D. Review process 16 - 17 6
E. Use of the Report 18 6
F. Contents of the Report 19 6
G. Limitations of the Report 20 6
GE.96-
Paragraphs Page
IV. THE SYNTHESIS REPORT 21 - 27 7
V. POSSIBLE ACTION BY THE SUBSIDIARY BODY FOR
SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL ADVICE 28 - 35 8
A. General issues 28 - 30 8
B. Synthesis Report 31 9
C. Working Group I Summary for Policymakers 32 9
D. Working Group II Summary for Policymakers 33 9
E. Working Group III Summary for Policymakers 34 - 35
10
1. At it first session, in 1995, the Subsidiary Body for
Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) expressed strong support
for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as one of
the independent and prominent sources of scientific and technical
information relevant to the implementation of the Convention, as
specified in Article 9 of the Convention (FCCC/SBSTA/1995/3). It
noted that the IPCC would adopt its Second Assessment Report at its
December 1995 session. It was recognized that this would include
important information for the Convention, and would require priority
attention at the second session of the SBSTA to enable it to provide
relevant advice to the Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM) as
necessary (FCCC/AGBM/1995/2, para. 19 (f)). The secretariat was
requested to prepare a document for consideration by the SBSTA,
identifying issues and suggesting the future inputs that may be
needed including those relevant to the AGBM process. The SBSTA also
considered further inputs it would need from the IPCC and came to a
number of conclusions regarding cooperation with the
Panel.
2. The Second Assessment Report was adopted by the IPCC at its
eleventh plenary session held in Rome from 11 to 15 December 1995.
The Report, to be published under the title "Climate Change 1995:
IPCC Second Assessment Report", comprises some 2,000 pages and
includes a multitude of figures and tables and more than 10,000
references.
3. The purpose of this note is to provide an overview of the
wealth of information contained in the Report with a view to
facilitating its use by the SBSTA. It also identifies a number of
issues for consideration by the SBSTA (see section V below). The
question of future inputs that may be required from the IPCC is
addressed in document FCCC/SBSTA/1996/6 on cooperation with the
IPCC.
4. This note provides some general information on the Report; its
three addenda give more detailed information on the inputs provided
by the three IPCC Working Groups. In addition, the Chairman of the
IPCC will introduce the Report at the second session of the
SBSTA.
5. Each of the three IPCC Working Groups -- Working Group I on Scientific Assessment, Working Group II on Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation, and Working
Group III on Economic and Social Dimensions -- has contributed to the Report. In addition,
a Synthesis Report has been drawn up based on the work of all
three Groups and relating to
the interpretation of Article 2 of the Convention. Thus the full
Report, under the title "Climate Change 1995: IPCC Second Assessment
Report", will comprise four volumes, as follows:
Volume 1 The IPCC Synthesis Report: An Assessment of
Scientific - Technical Information Relevant to Interpreting Article 2
of the Framework Convention on Climate
Change
6. This is an independent text, which has been approved by the
IPCC after a full government review process. Copies of the complete
text, in all languages, will be available to members of the SBSTA.
Some information on its contents is given in section IV
below.
Volume 2 The Science of Climate Change: Contribution of Working Group I
of the IPCC
7. This volume comprises a Summary for Policymakers, and a
Technical Summary supported by 11 chapters on relevant scientific
issues prepared by teams of scientists with expert knowledge in their
respective fields. Only the Summary for Policymakers, copies of which
will be available to members of the SBSTA in all languages, has been
subject to the full government review process. The Technical Summary
and the supporting chapters remain the responsibility of the
scientists concerned, but have been the subject of worldwide peer
review. Information on the contents of this volume is given in
document FCCC/SBSTA/1996/7/Add.1.
Volume 3 Scientific-Technical Analyses of Impacts,
Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Contribution of Working
Group II of the IPCC
8. This volume comprises a Summary for Policymakers, together with
a Technical Summary and 28 supporting chapters relating to impacts,
adaptation and mitigation of climate change in relation to a wide
variety of ecosystems and sectoral and cross-sectoral activities,
including the energy sector, again prepared by teams of experts. The
Summary for Policymakers, which has been subject to full government
review and approval, will be available to members of the SBSTA in all
languages. Information on the contents of this volume is provided in
document FCCC/SBSTA/1996/7/Add.2.
Volume 4 Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate
Change: Contribution of Working Group III of the
IPCC
9. This volume comprises a Summary for Policymakers and 11
supporting chapters on relevant topics prepared by teams of
specialists. The Summary for Policymakers has been approved after
full government review and will be available to members of the SBSTA
in all languages. Information on the contents of this volume is
provided in document FCCC/SBSTA/1996/7/Add.3.
Inventories
10. It should be noted that work on inventories of greenhouse
gases and related methodological development is not covered by or
included in the Report. It forms part of the current work of the IPCC
and will continue in close cooperation with the Convention
secretariat, at least until the end of 1997. Some information on this
work is given in document FCCC/SBSTA/1996/6.
11. The IPCC Second Assessment Report will serve as an
authoritative source of the best available information on the
science, impacts, technological options and economics of climate
change. Those interested in learning about - and acting upon -
climate change will now have access to the best information that the
scientific community can offer at this time.
12. In addition to being of general use to the work of the
Convention, the IPCC Second Assessment Report is of direct relevance
to the current work under the Convention, as demonstrated by the
request of the Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM) to the
Chairman and other IPCC officers concerned to provide information on
quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives and on
policies and measures.
13. Among the new findings in the Report, the findings that
"climate has changed over the past century" and that "the balance of
evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate"
are of particular interest to the policy process since they state a
fact and imply human responsibility for it. The Convention is
designed to assist Governments in providing a global
response.
14. The Synthesis and the three Summaries for Policymakers will be
available in English during February 1996. Copies in all six
languages of the United Nations are expected to be available by late
February 1996. The published texts of the supporting chapters are
expected to be available, in English only, by May 1996. Unless
considerable additional funding can be found by the IPCC, it is
unlikely that the supporting chapters will be translated and
published in other languages. Delegates of the SBSTA wishing to
consult these chapters should obtain copies from their national IPCC
focal points.
15. The Second Assessment Report was drawn up by some 2,000
leading scientists and technical experts from about 130 countries.
Teams of authors responsible for the preparation of each supporting
chapter included scientists from the developing countries. The Report
took two and a half years to prepare and is the most comprehensive
evaluation of current scientific, technical, and socio-economic
research on climate change since the First Assessment Report in 1990;
it is truly global in scope.
16. The Report has been subject to IPCC peer review, involving
Governments, scientists and other specialists, and governmental and
non-governmental organizations. Diverging scientific and technical
views have been reflected. The Technical Summaries of Working Groups
I and II as well as the chapters supporting the three Summaries for
Policymakers have undergone extensive peer review and, while
remaining the responsibility of the respective authors, have been
accepted by the IPCC plenary session.
17. The Synthesis Report and the three Summaries for Policymakers
have received full governmental review and approval.
18. Although the SBSTA, at its second session, will have before it
only the Synthesis Report and the three Summaries for Policymakers,
it is clear that decision makers should make maximum use of the
entire Second Assessment Report including the Technical Summaries and
the supporting chapters. Members of the SBSTA should consult with
their colleagues acting as IPCC focal points for access to the texts
and appropriate briefing and advice as necessary.
19. The Second Assessment Report contains a wealth of information
which will be a challenge to read, assimilate, and digest in full.
The Synthesis Report and the three Summaries for Policymakers provide
a broad picture of the scope of the Second Assessment Report. The
subsequent three addenda to this document have been prepared in an
attempt to make the Report more accessible to delegates. They provide
"roadmaps", which should make it easier for delegates to find their
way though the wide range of issues covered. The addenda also
highlight some of the information in the Report. This is not intended
to provide an interpretation of the findings or to serve as a
replacement for the IPCC text, but rather to constitute an invitation
to consult the Summaries and supporting chapters. Furthermore, it is
hoped that these highlights will be translated in the future so as to
be of some assistance to delegates who use languages other than
English until the Report is made available in translated
form.
20. Given the manner in which the Second Assessment Report was
drawn up it is not surprising that considerable differences in style
and presentation are evident throughout. Likewise, the level of
detail varies. In some cases certain assumptions, particularly as
concerns scenarios, differ. Even the IPCC definition of climate
change, which includes climate variability, differs from that of the
Convention (see FCCC/SBSTA/1996/7/Add.1, annex III, which provides a
glossary of terms). These and other aspects will have to be taken
into account by the SBSTA.
21. The Synthesis Report presents information on the scientific
and technical issues related to the interpretation of Article 2 of
the Convention, drawing on the underlying IPCC Second Assessment
Report. Since the Synthesis is not simply a summary of that Report,
the Summaries for Policymakers of the three IPCC Working Groups
should also be consulted for a summary of the Second Assessment
Report.
22. The ultimate objective of the Convention, as expressed in
Article 2, "is to achieve ... stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a
level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food
production is not threatened and to enable economic development to
proceed in a sustainable manner."
23. As indicated in the Synthesis Report, the challenges presented
to the policymaker by Article 2 are to determine what concentrations
of greenhouse gases are to be regarded as "dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system" and to chart a future which
allows for economic development that is sustainable. The purpose of
this Report is to provide scientific, technical, and socio-economic
information that can be used, inter alia, in addressing
these challenges. It is based on the 1994 and 1995 reports of the
IPCC Working Groups.
24. The Synthesis Report takes up the various issues addressed in
Article 2. It first briefly summarizes the degree of climate change -
the "interference with the climate system" - that is projected to
occur as a result of human activities. It then goes on to highlight
what we know about the vulnerabilities of ecosystems and human
communities to likely climate changes, especially in regard to
agriculture and food production and other factors such as water
availability, health and the impact of sealevel rise, which are
important considerations for sustainable development. The task of the
IPCC is to provide a sound scientific basis that will enable
policymakers to better interpret dangerous anthropogenic interference
with the climate system.
25. Given the current trends of increasing emissions of most greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of these gases are likely to increase throughout the next century and beyond. With the growth in such concentrations of greenhouse gases, interference with the climate system will grow in magnitude, and the likelihood of adverse impacts from climate change that could be judged dangerous will become greater. Therefore, possible pathways of future net emissions were considered which might lead to stabilization at
different levels, and the general constraints these imply. This
consideration forms the next part of the Report, and is followed by a
summary of the technical and policy options for reducing emissions
and enhancing sinks of greenhouse gases.
26. The Synthesis Report then addresses issues related to equity
and to ensuring that economic development proceeds in a sustainable
manner. This involves considering, for instance, estimates of the
damage likely to be caused by climate change impacts, and the
impacts, including costs and benefits, of adaptation and mitigation.
Finally, a number of insights from available studies point to ways of
taking initial action even if, at present, it is difficult to decide
upon a target for atmospheric concentrations, including time-frames,
that would prevent "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system".
27. Decisions with respect to Article 2 of the Convention involve
three distinct but interrelated choices: stabilization level, net
emissions pathway, and mitigation technologies and policies. The
Synthesis Report presents available scientific and technical
information on all three choices. It also notes where uncertainties
remain regarding such information.
SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL ADVICE
28. The SBSTA may wish to have a general discussion of the
findings contained in the Report at its second session with the view
to advising the Conference of the Parties (COP) on the policy
implications of the findings and on the relevance of the Report to
the work under the Convention. It may also consider formulating
recommendations, drawing upon the Report, to other subsidiary bodies,
in particular to the AGBM and consider the implications for its own
work programme.
29. The SBSTA may also consider the contribution that the Report
could make to education, training and public awareness (Article 6 of
the Convention). In this context it may wish to recommend, inter
alia, that Parties, organizations and institutions give
appropriate attention to the Second Assessment Report and make an
effort to disseminate the information contained in it. Specifically,
the SBSTA may wish to invite the IPCC, its parent bodies (the World
Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment
Programme) and the Convention secretariat to collaborate in
disseminating information from the Second Assessment Report,
presenting it in such a manner as to facilitate its absorption by
different audiences, including the public information
media.
30. In addition the SBSTA may consider what advice would be appropriate under
Article 5 of the Convention, given the research and observation
needs identified in the Report.
31. The SBSTA may consider advising the COP on an approach to the
challenges presented to the policymaker as identified by the IPCC and
referred to in paragraph 23 above.
32. The SBSTA may consider the findings of Working Group I,
including the crucial new finding that the balance of evidence
suggests a discernable human influence on global climate (see
FCCC/SBSTA/1996/7/Add.1, annex I paragraph (d)).
33. The SBSTA may note that the secretariat has already started to
use findings of the Second Assessment Report in its documentation for
the AGBM (FCCC/AGBM/1996/2). The SBSTA may further consider the broad
range of findings of Working Group II, and in that context address
the following issues, including the way in which they should be taken
up in its longer-term workplan:
(a) How should the Working Group II report be reflected in any
consideration of Article 2?
(b) Whether, pursuant to decision 13/CP.1,(1)
work on adaptation technologies should be undertaken by the
secretariat or by the intergovernmental technical advisory panel,
once established, and, if so, what level of priority should be
accorded to it? (FCCC/SBSTA/1996/2 and
FCCC/SBSTA/1996/4)?
(c) How should information on mitigation options be reflected in
the AGBM process?
(d) Would the new information on mitigation and adaptation options
need to be reflected in the guidance which is given by the COP to the
Global Environment Facility and which will be further developed (see
decisions 11/CP.1 and 12/CP.1)? If so, the SBSTA would need to advise
the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI)
accordingly.
(e) Whether the new information on mitigation methods should be
reflected in guidelines for national communications, and, if so,
how?
34. The SBSTA may consider the findings of Working Group III,
noting that the IPCC can clarify scientifically the implications of
different approaches and proposals, but that the choice of particular
proposals is a policy judgement.
35. The SBSTA may draw certain findings to the attention of the
SBI and/or the AGBM, including the insights and possible actions
listed under "Scope of assessment".
1. For decisions adopted by the Conference of the Parties at its first session, held at Berlin from 28 March to 7 April 1995, see document FCCC/CP/1995/7/Add.1.