Distr.

GENERAL

FCCC/SB/1996/1*

19 February 1996

Original: ENGLISH

SUBSIDIARY BODY FOR SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL ADVICE

Second session

Geneva, 27 February - 4 March 1996

Item 5 (a) (ii) of the provisional agenda

SUBSIDIARY BODY FOR IMPLEMENTATION

Second session

Geneva, 27 February - 4 March 1996

Item 3 (a) (ii) of the provisional agenda

Paragraphs Page

I. INTRODUCTION 1-11 3

A. Mandate 1-2 3

B. Scope of note 3-6 3

C. Possible action by the subsidiary bodies 7-11 4

II. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND BASIC DATA 12-14 5

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* For technical reasons, Part Two of this note is issued separately as document FCCC/SB/1996/1/Add.1.

GE.96.-

Paragraphs Page

III. INVENTORIES OF ANTHROPOGENIC AND

BASIC DATA 15-20 5

IV. POLICIES AND MEASURES TO LIMIT ANTHROPOGENIC

EMISSIONS AND TO PROTECT AND ENHANCE SINKS AND

RESERVOIRS OF GREENHOUSE GASES 21-22 7

V. PROJECTIONS AND EFFECTS OF POLICIES AND

MEASURES 23-27 7

VI. FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE 28 8

VII. TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY 29 9

VIII. OTHER ISSUES 30 9

Part Two: Tables of inventories of anthrogenic emissions and removals in 1990

General notes

Explanatory notes

Tables A.1-A.8 Inventories of anthropogenic emissions and

removals in 1990

Tables B.1-B.5 Projected anthropogenic emissions in 2000

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* See document FCCC/SB/1996/1/Add.1.

1. The Conference of the Parties, at its first session (COP 1)*, adopted decision 2/CP.1 relating to the review of first communications from the Parties included in Annex I to the Convention (FCCC/CP/1995/7/Add.1), whereby, inter alia, it requested the secretariat to prepare, for consideration by the subsidiary bodies and by the Conference of the Parties at its second session, a second compilation and synthesis of first national communications,⁽¹⁾ taking into account available review reports of individual national communications.

^{2. At its first session the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA), in adopting its conclusions (FCCC/SBSTA/1995/3), inter alia, requested the secretariat to present the first elements of the synthesis report of in-depth reviews for consideration at its second session with a view to finalizing the report at a later session for transmission to COP 2.}

^{3. The purpose of the present note is twofold. First, it presents an indicative outline of the second compilation and synthesis report, indicating approaches that the secretariat intends to take in preparing this document and seeking, where appropriate, guidance from the subsidiary bodies. Secondly, it compiles, in a preliminary manner, some numerical data drawn from both national communications and in-depth reviews.}

^{4. It is assumed that the synthesis report of in-depth reviews requested by the SBSTA will be a part of the second compilation and synthesis report requested by the COP. In preparing this report the secretariat intends to build upon the experience gained during the first compilation and synthesis and in-depth review process. It is envisaged that the length of the report will be about 50 pages.}

^{5. Parties should be aware that issues arising from the review process have also been incorporated in other documents: a report on the guidelines for the preparation of first communications by Annex I Parties is issued as document FCCC/SBSTA/1996/3; a report on technology transfer is issued as document FCCC/SBI/1996/5; and a synthesized listing of policies and measures identified in the national communications of Annex I Parties is contained in document FCCC/AGBM/1995/6. As a limited number of in-depth review reports have been published to date, this note does not attempt to present new and additional information made available to review teams and the secretariat but rather focuses on the types of issues that the secretariat intends to include in the second compilation and synthesis report to be submitted to subsidiary bodies at their third sessions.}

^{6. At present 31 national communications (29 from Annex I Parties(2)} plus Monaco and Liechtenstein⁽³⁾) have been submitted to the secretariat, and a number of these were subject to in-depth reviews (see FCCC/SB/1996/2). Supplementary information presented by the Parties during the in-depth reviews has constituted a valuable update on the documentation submitted by them so far (as reflected in documents A/AC.237/81 and Corr.1, FCCC/1995/INF. 4 and FCCC/CP/1995/INF.4/Corr.1) and is, to a certain extent, incorporated into parts of the present note, including tables containing national inventories and projections data. Substantial revisions and/or supplementary information included in these tables are indicated in the footnotes.

7. The subsidiary bodies may take note of this document and provide guidance on the proposed outline and approaches to be taken during the second compilation and synthesis of first national communications. The SBSTA may also consider specific issues of a technical nature related to the second compilation and synthesis, while the SBI may consider specific issues of a political nature and provide guidance where required.

8. The SBSTA may recall that, according to decision 3/CP.1, Annex I Parties are requested to submit to the secretariat by 15 April 1996 national inventory data for the period 1990-1993 and, where available, for 1994. Given the limited time available to the secretariat to compile and synthesize such data before COP 2, the SBSTA may wish to encourage the Parties concerned to submit the data by that deadline, or before if possible.

9. The subsidiary bodies may consider whether any specific information in this preliminary outline would be relevant to the Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM) and, if so, draw it to the attention of that body. (See also FCCC/AGBM/1995/2).

10. Parties for which data have been given in the tables contained in the addendum (in English only) to the present note (FCCC/SB/1996/1/Add.1) are invited to indicate to the secretariat any corrections that need to be made. It would be helpful if such corrections were received before 1 April 1996.

11. The SBSTA may wish to invite Parties to send their comments on technical issues related to the approach to the second compilation and synthesis indicated in this note by

1 April 1996.

12. In-depth review visits completed so far have demonstrated that consideration of national circumstances appears to be particularly important for understanding of the general context of climate change policies. These circumstances often determine the range of approaches a Party implements or explores and the scope of its efforts to mitigate climate change.

13. The Parties in their national communications and in supplementary documentation have presented information on such issues as organization of climate change efforts at both the national level and local levels; responsibilities of various levels of government; status of implementation of national plans; general policy context and important political decisions related to abatement of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; rates of economic growth and level of gross domestic product (GDP); the particular situation of countries with economies in transition; economic structure; energy prices; institutional frameworks in the energy sector; energy profiles underlying current emissions and influencing policies and measures options; climatic and geographical conditions. These issues have also been a central theme for discussion during the in-depth review visits.

14. Detailed descriptions of national circumstances can be found in national communications and in-depth review reports. Nevertheless, it is envisaged that some examples of national circumstances and basic data should be included in the second compilation and synthesis report, as well as presenting, where appropriate, relevant information available from international sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

15. Pursuant to Articles 4.1(a) and 12.1(a) of the Convention, reporting Parties communicated a 1990 national inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources of greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The secretariat has compiled the inventories data presented in national communications that were submitted by October 1994 in document A/AC.237/81 and those submitted by March 1995 in document FCCC/1995/INF.4.

16. In the course of the in-depth review process, which started in March 1995, additional and updated information on national inventories for the year 1990 has been communicated to review teams and the secretariat by some reporting Parties, and more national communications have been submitted to the secretariat since March 1995, thus warranting incorporation of additional and updated data. The data are presented in tables A.1-A.8 (in English only), in the addendum to this note. These data will be further cross-checked and verified during the second compilation and synthesis and in the course of pending in-depth reviews. Nevertheless, it may be noted that the Parties whose data are presented in these tables account for more than 60 per cent of the estimated global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion in 1990.⁽⁴⁾

17. According to decision 3/CP.1, the Parties included in Annex I to the Convention are requested to submit to the secretariat national inventory data on emissions by sources and removals by sinks on an annual basis for the period 1990-1993 and, where available, for 1994 by 15 April 1996. It is envisaged, to the extent possible and subject to availability of resources and data requested, to compile inventory information for years subsequent to 1990 during the second compilation and synthesis of national communications. Such data may be used for the analysis of trends in GHG emissions and comparisons with information related to projections and effects of policies and measures. To put the inventory data into context, and with the aim of enhancing comparability and facilitating comparisons, the report on the second compilation and synthesis could present data on GHG (in particular CO₂) emissions per capita, and possibly per unit of output (recognizing problems related to the use of a specific currency to measure GDP) for 1990 and subsequent years where available.

18. In-depth reviews performed so far have indicated that additional efforts are needed to improve inventory data on land use change and forestry, in particular treatment of carbon stored in forests. The reviews have confirmed that estimates of changes in this sector are highly uncertain and often undergo substantial revisions. Furthermore, some methodological issues appear to be controversial, in particular those related to the effects of measures and of projections, and require consideration by the SBSTA, possibly assisted by a technical advisory panel, if established. During the second compilation and synthesis it is envisaged to highlight those issues. The secretariat therefore only provides tables on land use change and forestry inventories but does not provide projections for these categories.

19. A few Annex I Parties with economies in transition have, by virtue of Article 4.6, used a year other than 1990 as the base year for reporting in their national communications. Moreover, different methodologies (not always compatible with the default IPCC methodology) have sometimes been used for the base year chosen and for 1990, thus

complicating the compilation and comparison of data among different Parties. The secretariat nevertheless envisages incorporating these data into the report on the second compilation and synthesis with explanatory notes where appropriate.

20. The IPCC programme on inventory methodologies is continuing at least throughout 1997 (see FCCC/SBSTA/1996/6 on cooperation with the IPCC). This programme is making steady progress, inter alia, in resolving discrepancies with the CORINAIR methodology used by the ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, it is not expected that the programme will be sufficiently advanced to have an impact on the preparation of the second compilation and synthesis.

AND TO PROTECT AND ENHANCE SINKS AND RESERVOIRS OF

GREENHOUSE GASES

21. In-depth reviews have offered an opportunity to obtain additional information on policies and measures, which will enable the secretariat to undertake a more detailed analysis, building on the results of the first compilation and synthesis and on information submitted by Parties in their national communications as well as supplementary documentation made available to review teams. Its aim is to highlight the policies and measures that target major sources of greenhouse gas emissions and that, in the opinion of the reporting Parties and review teams, deserve closer attention from other Parties, or are either innovative or the most successful, or both. Since quantitative information on the effects of policies and measures is not abundant, this analysis is envisaged as a qualitative rather than a quantitative evaluation and assessment. In view of the major methodological problems related to this issue, the subsidiary bodies, in particular the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI), may wish to return to it at later sessions.

22. It is envisaged to provide in the second compilation and synthesis report some examples of specific measures and policy options implemented by Parties, mentioning their names, where appropriate, in accordance with decision 2/CP.1. These examples could cover, inter alia, types of measures and policy options such as taxation, regulations, standards, and voluntary agreements. They are intended to illustrate the approaches taken by individual Parties without making judgements on their comparative merits or applicability to other Parties, and bearing in mind the facilitative and non-confrontational nature of the review process.

23. During the in-depth reviews supplementary or updated information on projections and effects of measures was made available to review teams by some Parties. Tables B.1-B.5 (in English only) in the addendum to this note contain projections data for 31 Parties whose national communications were received by 18 January 1996, and which take account of the supplementary information mentioned above. As these updates are not necessarily compatible with the original projections, the attached tables sometimes indicate the directions of the revisions rather than present new figures, and provide short explanatory notes. To be consistent with the different policy approaches adopted by Parties, CO₂ projections for 2000 are compared with both actual 1990 inventory figures and 1990 figures adjusted for temperature anomalies or electricity imports or other statistical adjustments.

24. Discussions of approaches, assumptions and uncertainty levels have been a major part of the in-depth reviews, allowing a more substantial analysis of these issues to be made than during the first compilation and synthesis. This is also true for projections beyond 2000 and sectoral developments. However, as information on these issues is often scattered and not comparable among Parties, it is not reflected in the tables, nor is it envisaged to include this information in the second compilation and synthesis report.

25. A number of issues related to presentation of information on projections arose during the first compilation and synthesis and at a later stage in both in-depth reviews and direct comments from Parties. In considering the projections and effects of policies and measures the secretariat envisages highlighting the issues that triggered reactions from interested Parties.

26. One such issue was the treatment by three reporting Parties of temperature adjustments and electricity import/export corrections for the base year 1990; another was the use of global warming potentials. It is envisaged that such issues will be addressed in the report and summary results presented in tabular form, as in the first review of information communicated by each Party included in Annex I to the Convention (see A/AC.237/81).

27. A major unresolved problem is how to present projections of CO₂ emissions in the land use change and forestry sector and anthropogenic emissions and removals of all GHGs. The presentation in document A/AC.237/81 (table 2) based on an approach adopted by some Parties led to comments from other Parties, either during the in-depth reviews or submitted directly to the secretariat. It was argued that this presentation could be misleading, for it focuses mainly on annual variations in the increment, while the long-term changes in the carbon reservoirs are not reflected explicitly. The secretariat is aware of this problem, which it intends to address in the second compilation and synthesis report. The subsidiary bodies may invite Parties to submit proposals aimed at improving the presentation of information on projections and effects of measures before April 1996 and to return to the issue at a later session.

28. Article 12.3 of the Convention requires each developed country Party and each other developed Party included in Annex II to submit in its national communication information containing details of measures taken in accordance with Article 4, paragraphs 3, 4 and 5, dealing with the provision of new and additional financial resources to developing countries. In-depth reviews visits completed so far have covered a majority of Parties included in

Annex II, thus allowing for the collection and updating of information on amounts and types of financial assistance to supplement data already contained in national communications. The secretariat intends to consider analysing and compiling information submitted by the Parties as well as information available from international sources, such as the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/

Development Assistance Committee (OECD/DAC).

29. It is envisaged to present in the second compilation and synthesis report a general overview of activities related to transfer of technology, taking account of supplementary information made available by Parties during the in-depth reviews. Substantive issues related to transfer of technology are considered in detail in document FCCC/SBI/1996/5.

30. It is envisaged that the following issues will be separate sections in the second compilation and synthesis report and will generally follow the same approach as in document A/AC.237/81:

Implementation of other commitments and related issues:

- Expected impacts of climate change, vulnerability assessment and adaptation

- Research and systematic observation

- Education, training and public awareness

- Integration of climate change considerations into policies and the identification and review of policies and measures leading to greater levels of emissions

The review and synthesis process