Chat:

Alejandro Bermeo: I am Alejandro Bermeo, advisor to the Ecuadorian delegation

Mip: Welcome to this chat, let's wait a while for other guests to join in, does anybody else wishe to introduce themselves?

Osvaldo Canziani: Before starting to discuss the matter, I would like to recall that climate change is a process with some particular characteristics in its global, transnational, and regional differences, being a tendency not a simple event. In these terms, the average climatic conditions on Earth would change in a permanent way introducing a host of impacts on natural systems, human-managed systems, health, infrastructure, etc. Science has developed global models which have allowed for projections of temperature and sea level rise ranging from 1 to 3,5 degrees centigrade and 25 to 95 cm, by the year 2100. The analysis of data registered during the last century show that, on average, the Earth's surface temperature has risen by 0.6 degrees. Similar analyses on a regional level show a differentiated heating, with higher temperatures in lower latitudes. Dra Hofmann, Vargas and Nuñez, have shown that this differential warming shows values of about 0.5 degrees at about 45 S, while further south it is in the region of 2 degrees. Publications have indicated that in the Antartic Peninsula the rise has been in the region of four degrees. Similar analyses and projections have been made in regard to precipitation with large differences which will be analysed in coming comments. Now, I feel the arena is opened for your contributions and questions. I would appreciate them being related to Latin American cases in general and, when feasible, to Argentina, in particular

Alejandro Bermeo: Referring to Ecuador, the climate change process has become very visible in recent times, one clear example is the action of the el Niño event which in the latest period had an excessively significant and long-standing presence. Another sign of climate change can be seen in the reduction in size of the glaciers in the Ecuadorian Andes, and this is being studied jointly by Orstom of France and the National Polytechnic University. This is why we must be forewarned in the face of this type of events. Another important aspect, which unfortunately is not taken into consideration, especially in countries like Ecuador, especially in the tropical zone, is training people to really recognise what is meant by climate change

Osvaldo Canziani: Regarding Dr Bermeo's comment, IPCC indicated in its Second Assessment Report that glaciers would practically disappear during the next century. However, the glaciers in Patagonia will remain until the end of the 21st Century

Vivanco: Sorry, what's the subject for this chat? Wasn't Bob Watson announced for today?

Osvaldo Canziani: Dr Watson was called away on other important business and I, as co-chair of IPCC Working Group II took over to chat with you.

Alejandro Bermeo: The issue under discussion is climate change

Osvaldo Canziani: Yes, especially the regional impacts of climate change. Would you like to ask a question?

Alejandro Bermeo: The issue of climate change is very broad, but we could for example speak of rainfall, or how environmental temperatures are progressing, or how the agricultural processes will be affected, of national reports etc. We could also talk of the Framework Climate Change Convention, the Kyoto Protocol, etc.

Osvaldo Canziani: Regarding precipitation, the problem is quite important due to the limited fresh water resources available in the world.

Vivanco: What can a country like Ecuador do? Aren't you rather tempted by the credits your large forests would give you under the emissions trading regime?

Alejandro Bermeo: Ecuador is at the moment generating an internal process precisely to be able to define the mechanisms which permit us not only to conserve the native forests, but also to generate forests to sequester CO2 and after a certain period of management be commercial and profitable.

Vivanco: You mean plantations for paper products?

Alejandro Bermeo: No, more as forestry-grazing land systems, but mostly to conserve the soil.

Osvaldo Canziani: I would like to join the discussion on forests. In fact, deforestation is a serious drawback to the climate system due to the well-known fact that it is a GHG sink.

Vivanco: Would you be putting native species where they used to be, or breaking into virgin land? I'm asking this because some countries (in particular Uruguay and Argentina) are doing more harm than good by planting exotic species and then coming to these conferences and setting themselves up as good examples...

Alejandro Bermeo: Native species would be put wherever feasible, and where forests used to be, and above all on land which is no longer productive. I agree with what you are saying. But for this we have to know how to dialogue with all the possible beneficiaries, or those who could be affected, and above all, establishing clear guidelines and mechanisms for the generation process for this type of project. Is there anything else you would like to know about Ecuador?

Osvaldo Canziani: Yes, I would like to know something more on Ecuador. My question goes to another aspect of climate, that is the climate variability, identified as el Niño. What can you tell us about the impacts of el Niño on the Ecuadorian economy.

Alejandro Bermeo: The presence of the el Niño in the 1997-98 period produced destruction of around 6 billions dollars which meant the crisis the Ecuadorian economy was already suffering was increased substantially, 2 billion dollars are needed for reconstruction of the road infrastructure alone. The action of el Niño normally makes economic development suffer a slowing in its advancement process, which can be clearly seen by the increase in poverty indices

Osvaldo Canziani: Dr Bermeo, have you data on other economic impacts of El Niño_

Alejandro Bermeo: Unfortunately, I haven't got the documents to hand for this conversation, but if you are interested you can write to me by PO box 17-07-9038, Quito, Ecuador and I will soon have an e-mail number and then we can be in touch more easily

Osvaldo Canziani: Following my comments, I would emphasize that also extreme events will be more extreme. The case of the recent hurricanes is an example of that. Mathematical models have indicated that the deforestation of the Amazon rainforest would reduce precipitation by amounts of up to even 50 %. Meanwhile, evapotranspiration from the Amazon forest would be cut off with a net loss of the second and third precipitation fronts, arising from the high evapotranspiration of the forest

Osvaldo Canziani: Waiting Dr Romero, from Bolivia to come into the chat, I will like to know which are the results, if any, of the vulnerability studies which could be made together with the national GHG inventory in this country?

Sergio Romero: Bolivia has already concluded its national inventory for the energy and non-energy sectors. The report indicates that the main source is land-use change and forestry. Additionally, it also concluded its preliminary studies related to vulnerability and adaptation related to water resources, crops, forest, grassland, and livestock. This preliminary report shows that ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change ad climate variability. For example, two main river basins, are suffering flow reductions, which has an impact on water supply to communities. Vulnerability studies developed in Bolivia are scenarios that show us some trends. Things that are likely to happen as a result of the increases in GHG's.

Osvaldo Canziani: To initiate my comments , I would like to emphasize that the analyses of data from last century have shown remarkable changes. In fact precipitation has increased in the Pampas region with a net increase, particularly during the last 30 years, of about 35 %. Precipitation has also increased on the mid Paraná and Paraguay rivers, with more run-off which results in increased frequency of flooding. As for snowfall on the high Andes, on which the water resources both of Central Chile and Central Western Argentina depend. It has been noted that water supply is quite vulnerable to el Niño events and this has been shown with serious reductions in river flows and the availability of underground water resources. Future expectations show that warming may affect increases in precipitation with a loss in production, for some specimens. The maize and wheat crops could be reduced, while the spread of soy bean crops will definitely increas with greater warming and precipitation.

Alejandro Bermeo: And as for precipitations, there are zones which will have increased rainfall, but unfortunately, in zones which already suffering the desertification process, precipitation will reduce even further.

Osvaldo Canziani: Such a development already calls for studies of the rezonification of crops and the use of genetic varieties able to withstand the effect of foreseen changes. I have to agree with Dr Bermeo. The IPCC Second Assessment report has shown adverse impacts on arid and semi-arid regions.

Alejandro Bermeo: Speaking of agricultural processes, above all in the adaptation issue, given that in Ecuador, rice is one of the staple crops, the Institute of Agricultural Experiments has produced a rice variety which tolerates adverse conditions and takes less time to be ready for harvest. This rice variety also reduces the production of gases which contribute to the greenhouse effect, like methane, and also those released when the land is prepared, when the rural worker normally burns the vegetation cover producing CO2.

Sergio Romero: In the case of Bolivia, there is a reduction in the soy bean crop yield. There are also currently reductions in corn and potato crops.

Osvaldo Canziani: Another important impact is that resulting from Sea Level Rise, in both the Americas and the Caribbean. The vulnerability studies completed in Argentina, Venezuela, Guyana and Uruguay, show the loss of relatively important pieces of land. The value of this land is dependent on the use given to these lands. In the case of Uruguay a relatively small loss of about 20 square kms will represent a loss of about 1 to 2 million dollars per year, because of losses of the beaches used for tourism.

Alejandro Bermeo: Speaking of Sea Level Rise. In Ecuador we are carrying out a study of climate change and coastal resources, and we hope to have the results by the end of the year, but available data speak of increases in sea level which could reach up to 1 metre if climatic processes continue as at present.

Osvaldo Canziani: An additional impact is that of the salt water intrusion into estuaries and underground water resources, bringing a host of difficulties for fresh water collection for human consumption.

Alejandro Bermeo: Communication with indigenous groups is of great importance in Ecuador because it is normally they who are living in the forest areas, whereby it is necessary for them to really be aware of how to both conserve these and use them at the same time.

Sergio Romero: Recent studies relating to glaciers show that the Chacaltaiar glacier in La Paz, Bolivia has seen its ice mass reduced by 20%.

Osvaldo Canziani: IPCC has shown this is a fact. Tropical and subtropical glaciers will tend to disappear during the next century. This reduction and the increased elevation of the snow-ice line on mountains will bring problems of water supply in arid piedmont areas, like the Cuyo region.

Sergio Romero: Other glaciers provide drinkable water to the city of La Paz, and they show a decline in their ice mass. This leads to a shortage in the water supply. This is a situation that we have never had to deal with before with in the past.

Alejandro Bermeo: Yes, I agree with doctor Canziani, but unfortunately there has been no systematic study of the Paramo areas, the fragility of which is permanent, and these regions are where the water is collected to feed the river headwaters.

Osvaldo Canziani: Summing up, we could recommend the Governments of Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as private enterprises, particularly those making use of the natural resources of the Region, be aware of these impacts and take measures to improve observations. They should monitor the climatic and biological variables and make observations on the various human and economic variables - health, sanitation epidemiology, production, etc

Alejandro Bermeo: Just one comment, Dr. Canziani, we should work for the governments to issue long-term State policies to confront the climate change processes.

Osvaldo Canziani: Research on the various components of the national economies is also an urgent issue. I would like to close this chat reporting that this COP is quite interested in the impacts of climate change, not only because of Article 2 of the UNFCCC but also because in Kyoto it was decided that further research is necessary regarding the sink capacities of forests and the sink emission values of land use change. IPCC is responsible for preparing a Special Report on these matters and it is more than necessary for developing countries and very particularly Latin American Countries to send their experts as members of the IPCC working groups responsible for the preparation of this Special Report on Sinks.

Sergio Romero: In Bolivia the urgent issues are economic resources to deal with the costs of adaptation to climate change, as Bolivia has many fragile ecosystems.

Alejandro Bermeo: In Ecuador, meanwhile, studies already carried out using information dating back to the year 1990, should be brought up to date. It has been a pleasure talking to you, you have my PO Box number for any questions or comments.

Sergio Romero: Yes, and the National Climate Change Programme of Bolivia can be reached at the following e-mail address: pncambio@clima.rds.org.bo