Distr.
GENERAL
FCCC/SBSTA/1996/16/Add.1
14 November 1996
ENGLISH ONLY
SUBSIDIARY BODY FOR SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL ADVICE
Fourth session
Geneva, 16-18 December 1996
Item 4 (a) of the provisional agenda
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was
established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess all
available scientific, technical and socio-economic research in the
field of climate change. The IPCC is organized into three working
groups: Working Group I concentrates on the science of the climate
system, Working Group II on impacts and response options, and Working
Group III on economic and social dimensions.
Type of methodology: Assessing the impacts of
climate change
Project title: Seven steps for the assessment of the vulnerability of coastal areas to sealevel rise
Organization: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
__________
aA number of international organizations and intergovernmental organizations attended the meeting on
4 and 5 July 1996 but did not submit information on ongoing
methodological work to the secretariat.
GE.96-
Description: Tool to identify and assess
physical, ecological and socio-economic vulnerabilities to sealevel
rise and other coastal impacts of climate change; understand the
development and socio-economic factors affecting vulnerability;
assess ways of reducing vulnerability; and evaluate a country's
capacity for implementing a response.
Funding: Full funding borne by the IPCC
Completed: September 1991
Type of methodology: Assessing the impacts of
climate change
Project title: IPCC Technical Guidelines for
Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations
Organization: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
Description: To assess the impact of potential
climate change and to evaluate appropriate adaptations through a
study framework that allows comparable assessments in different
geographical regions, economic sectors and countries. Involves
estimations of the differences in environmental and socio-economic
conditions projected to occur with and without climate change. Also
involves assessment of autonomous adaptation. The guidelines are
available in the six official languages of the United
Nations.
Funding: Not disclosed
Completed: November 1994
Type of methodology: Assessing impacts of climate
change
Project title: Climate change impact assessment
and adaptation strategies
Organization: UNEP/Institute for Environmental
Studies, Vrije University, Amsterdam
Programme: (a) Development of a handbook on
methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation
strategies
(b) Coordination with the Netherlands Climate Studies Assistance Programme
Description: (a) The purpose of the handbook is
to assist countries in setting up and conducting climate change
impact and adaptation studies. The handbook may be regarded as an
elaboration of the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate
Change Impacts and Adaptations. It gives general guidance on impact
studies, adaptation strategies and integrated assessment and gives an
overview of available methods, models, etc. together with their
respective advantages and disadvantages.
(b) In this programme, climate change country studies will be
funded (at present seven developing countries have expressed their
interest in participating in these studies). These studies will cover
emission inventories, mitigation studies and impact and adaptation
studies. It is anticipated that they will contribute through the
input of the participating countries and the technical assistance to
further development of existing methodologies and methodologies in
preparation.
Implementation status: (a) Project almost finished
(b) Programme started 1 July 1996
Funding: (a) UNEP (US$ 250,000)
(b) Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs (US$ 4 million)
Completion date: (a) First draft version, September 1996
(b) Final, July 1998
Type of methodology: Assessing impacts of climate
change
Project title: Country case studies of sources
and sinks of greenhouse gases (GF/0103-92-01)
Organization: UNEP Atmosphere Unit
Description: This project is supporting the
application and testing of the draft handbook on methods for
assessing the impacts of climate change and adaptation measures being
developed under UNEP project FP/0103-94-01. UNEP is providing
technical and financial assistance to national study teams in Antigua
and Barbuda, Cameroon, Estonia and Pakistan to develop national
country studies based on this draft handbook.
Implementation status: This GEF-funded project
began in March 1996. The first meeting of national teams from Antigua
and Barbuda, Cameroon, and Estonia was held in July 1996. UNEP is in
the process of completing agreements with the four participating
countries (July 1996).
Funding: US$ 2 million (from GEF)
Completion date: September 1997
Type of methodology: Assessing impacts of climate
change
Project title: Interagency network on climate
and human health
Organization: World Health
Organization (WHO)
Description: The core group of United Nations
agencies in this activity are WHO, WMO and UNEP. An external group of
experts and institutions is informally connected with the network.
The network will form a component of the Climate Agenda. The goal is
threefold: (1) provide guidance to countries on health impact
assessment and mitigation; (2) enable the exchange of information on
climate and health; and (3) act as the United Nations lead group of
experts in impact assessment and determination of research
priorities. These goals will be achieved within the programmes of
work of the United Nations agencies involved and with the instruments
at their disposal (expert advisory panels, collaborating centres,
joint work programmes with non-governmental organizations, governing
bodies).
Implementation status: The first phase will be
finalized before the end of 1996 with the publication of a policy
paper for the guidance of health sector decision-makers who need to
develop adaptive programmes, based on national health impact
assessments. Two other documents have been published in 1996 (a
chapter on human population health impacts in the IPCC Second
Assessment Report - WGII, and a monograph entitled, "Climate change
and human health"). Fund-raising has begun for the financing of the
second phase. A mutually agreed project description has been
prepared.
Funding: 1993-1996: US$ 450,000 (Phase 1)
Sources: Netherlands, United States Environmental Protection Agency, UNEP, WMO and WHO
1996-1998: US$ 3.2 million
(Phase 2): funds being sought
Completion date: Not foreseen. An independent
assessment is planned to mark the completion of phase 2.
Type of methodology: Assessing impacts of climate
change
Project title: Tropical urban climate
experiment
Organization: World Meteorological Organization,
Technical Commission for Climatology
Description: This is an umbrella project for
studies of the urban climate and its evolution. In particular the
interaction between large and local scale climate processes is
assessed. Various ways to improve energy efficiency in urban areas,
for example, in the design and operation of urban buildings are
assessed.
Implementation status: This project was begun in
1984 and has been reported on at several conferences, e.g., the
Technical Conference on Tropical Urban Climates held in
Bangladesh.
Funding: WMO has funded the coordination of the
programme and major conferences. Projects are funded nationally or
through bilateral programmes.
Completion date: This activity will continue. A
lead group is responsible for planning additional
activities.
Type of methodology: Assessment of climate change
impacts
Project title: Climate change impacts on
population-supporting capacities
Organization: Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations, in collaboration with the International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, UNEP and the Environmental
Change Unit (University of Oxford)
Description: The project uses global circulation
model data to assess the likely effects of global climate change on
human food supply, including geographic variations based on country
case studies. The study aims to develop an impact assessment
methodology and to assess impacts.
Completion date: Case studies of Kenya and
Bangladesh have been finalized. A Nigerian study is
ongoing.
Funding: Shared between the organizations listed
above.
Type of methodology: Inventorying GHG
emissions
Project title: Methodology for calculating
national greenhouse gas inventories
Organization: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, in cooperation with the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development Environment Directorate and the
International Energy Agency
Description: The methodology covers the major
categories of GHG:
Energy
Industrial processes
Solvent use
Agriculture
Waste
The methodology presented in the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC Guidelines, 1995), comprises three volumes: Reference Manual, Workbook and Reporting Instructions. Methods are described for estimating sources/sinks for CO2, CH4, N2O and trace gases. The Reporting Instructions are designed for consistency, transparency, and comparability among national GHG inventories. They are used by Parties in reporting their GHG inventories, even in cases where the IPCC default emission/removal calculations and values are not used to estimate emissions. The simplified default calculations are described in a stepwise manner in the Workbook.
Revisions and additions to the IPCC Guidelines (1995) for fuel combustion, industrial processes, agricultural soils, waste, and methane from rice fields were accepted at the twelfth plenary of the IPCC in Mexico City, 11-13 September 1996. The proposed revisions will concern 'new' gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6), ozone and aerosol precursors, as well as the direct GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O).
Implementation status: At its twelfth plenary
session, the IPCC also adopted a programme of work for 1997. The
activities planned for 1997 include: expert meetings on top-down and
bottom-up emission estimates, land-use change and forestry, and
improvement of guidelines methodology and the publication of the
Revised 1996 Guidelines.
Funding: 1997, SwF 1 million
Type of methodology: Inventorying GHG
emissions
Project title: Country case studies of sources
and sinks of greenhouse gases (GF/0103-92-01)
Organization: UNEP Atmosphere Unit
Description: This GEF funded project supported
the testing and refinement of the IPCC Guidelines (1995)
through a series of nine country studies, four regional workshops and
direct support to the IPCC/OECD/IEA inventory methodology development
programme.
Implementation status: This project is nearing
completion. Nine of the participating countries have completed
national studies, all four regional workshops have been held and the
IPCC guidelines have been accepted by both the IPCC and the UNFCCC
Conference of the Parties.
Funding: US$ 4.5 million
Completion date: December 1996
Type of methodology: Inventory
Project title: FAOSTAT
Organization: Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations
Description: FAO regularly compiles statistical
data on basic agricultural products and related information for all
countries and territories of the world. FAOSTAT includes data series
on the categories below, where only the statistics relevant to
climate change are listed:
(a) Area, yield and production of numerous crops, including
rice;
(b) Livestock numbers and products (including those on
ruminants);
(c) Population, land use and irrigation;
(d) Forests;
(e) Fertilizer production, trade and consumption.
Completion date: Ongoing activity
Funding: FAO regular programme
Type of methodology: Inventory
Project title: AFRICOVER
Organization: Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations
Description: AFRICOVER, which started in 1994,
aims at establishing a digital geo-referenced database on land cover
in Africa, including a major capacity-building
component.
The preparation of AFRICOVER products relies on remote sensing
data and a geographic information systems (GIS). The land cover is
derived from visual interpretation of recent digitally enhanced
high-resolution satellite images. FAO coordinates national inputs and
ensures the adhesion to standard land cover terminology, legend and
classification, geometry and topography, and technical
methods.
Completion date: Ongoing activity. An inventory
of each country takes between two and five years. The duration of the
AFRICOVER project will be about 10 years.
Funding: Bilateral and multilateral assistance,
with national and regional contributions. The total budget is
estimated at US$ 50 to 60 million (US$ 1.5 to 4 per square km) for
the mapping activities. The methodology development costs to date are
US$ 600,000.
Type of methodology: Projecting global
emissions.
Project title: Assessing mitigation measures and
policies - Seminars on economic and energy-market impacts of various
quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives under the
UNFCCC (QELROs): the relevance of modelling to
policy-making
Organization: International Energy Agency
Description: The IEA organized a seminar on the issue of QELROs and what insights modelling can bring on the energy dimension of this issue to policy-makers. In particular, the need for differentiation, the notion of flexibility and the importance of timing with respect to aggregate abatement costs were discussed. Participants recognized the need for a more detailed approach, e.g. at the sectoral level, to study how best to exploit the flexibility of energy systems over time. Participants generally recognized the shortcomings of current modelling practices with respect to the description of infrastructures, and how they affect energy choices over the long run. Another difficulty faced by modellers is the assessment of "real-world" policies and measures, with the danger of a disconnection between policy-makers questions and what models can deliver when looking at QELROs.
A second seminar, involving IPCC lead authors of Working Groups II
and III covered 'no regrets' and minimum cost options for the
abatement of GHG emissions on a sector-by-sector basis (electricity
supply and demand, other stationary combustion sources and
transportation). The seminar Closing the Efficiency Gap in Energy
Responses to Climate Change, was held in November 1996.
Implementation status: First seminar held in May 1996
Second seminar to be held at the end of November 1996
(tentative)
Funding: Information not available
Completion date: Not available
Type of methodology: Projecting global
emissions
Project title: World agriculture towards
2010
Organization: Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations
Description: "World agriculture towards 2010" is
a forward-looking assessment by FAO of likely developments in world
food and agriculture, including forestry and fisheries. It is
relevant to the area of climate change as it describes some essential
features of the future status of agriculture as compared to impact
studies that assess the effect of climate change scenarios on
present-day agriculture.
The study focuses mainly, but not only, on developing countries
and examines two overlapping central themes: food security and
natural resources, the environment and sustainability. The findings
are from intensive FAO multidisciplinary analyses, providing a global
picture from detailed assessments by country, product and
agro-ecological zone. The study is often regarded as the most
comprehensive analysis available on the agricultural potential of the
land and water resources of developing countries.
Completion date: Ongoing activity
Funding: FAO regular programme
Type of methodology: Assessing technology
transfer activities
Project title: Market deployment of new energy
technologies
Organization: International Energy
Agency
Description: Assesses the market barriers to new
energy technologies for eight energy technologies including
refrigerators and freezers, advanced lighting, clean coal
technologies and wind, photovoltaic and other renewable energy
technologies
Implementation status: Ongoing
activity
Funding: Funds have been provided from IEA
budgets with additional support contributions from IEA member
countries, in particular the United Kingdom
Completion date: September 1996
Type of methodology: Evaluating national
technology needs
Project title: Climate Technology Initiative
(CTI), Task Force on Technology Aspects of National
Plans
Organization: IEA/OECD
Description: The objective is to identify and
develop mechanisms to:
(a) Improve methodologies for technology assessment and for
technology transfer and adaptation;
(b) Enhance the capabilities of countries to conduct technology
assessments as part of their national climate change action
plans;
(c) Facilitate the exchange of information and expertise between
all Parties to the UNFCCC on technology assessment and the
development of technology measures in national plans.
Implementation status: The Task Force report is
being considered by IEA/OECD member countries. The CTI status will be
reported at the ministerial segment of COP 2 and at
SBSTA.
Type of methodology: Evaluating the effectiveness
of measures
Project title: Methods to evaluate projections
and estimate the effects of policies and measures
Organization: International Energy Agency and
OECD Environment Directorate - Annex I Experts Group on the
UNFCCC
Description: This project aims to improve the
transparency and comparability of GHG projection and effects of
policies and measures, in the context of national communications to
the UNFCCC. It hopes to shed light on issues related to monitoring of
effects, and data requirements for proper assessment of measures and
to improve understanding and confidence in projections and estimates
of effects of policies and measures.
1993: "Methodologies for greenhouse gas policy impact assessment",
a study of the relative merits of different modelling
approaches.
1995: Survey of experts involved in national communications to
identify main methodological issues with respect to GHG projections
and effects of policies and measures.
Implementation status: Survey of experts on
national communications conducted in 1995. Work plan to be submitted
to the Annex I Experts Group.
Completion date: To be determined
Type of methodology: Assessing mitigation
technologies
Project title: UNIDO inventory of energy
efficient industrial technologies and processes (phase
I)
Organization: United Nations Industrial
Development Organization (UNIDO)
Description: The UNIDO inventory includes a wide
range of industrial energy efficiency and fuel switching measures
(technologies and processes), representing good current practice in
developed countries in selected industrial sectors. The inventory
includes information on specific industrial technologies and
processes, as well as cross-cutting technologies such as efficient
motor drive systems, lighting and co-generation. It is based on
readily available spreadsheet software to enable the user to easily
access data. The inventory gives details on energy savings, costs,
environmental impacts, including GHG emissions, and further
information on selected efficient industrial
technologies.
Implementation status: Inventory currently
contains data for five energy-intensive industries (iron and steel,
pulp and paper, cement, petroleum refining, nitrogen fertilizers),
developed under phase I of the project. Dissemination to developing
countries will be undertaken in phase II. Further information,
including the addition of more technologies that are applicable to
other energy-intensive industries, will be continuously added under
phase II, subject to availability of funds.
Funding: 1996 - US$ 140,000 (phase I).
1997 - US$ 1.6 million (phase II).
Completion date: Phase I - December 1996
Phase II - COP third session
Type of methodology: Assessing mitigation
technologies
Project title: Computerized analytical tool to
evaluate industrial technology options
Organization: United Nations Industrial
Development Organization (UNIDO)
Description: Analytical tool providing a
framework for industrial entities in developing countries to evaluate
opportunities to reduce GHG emissions in energy-intensive industries
through use of improved technologies. Allows the user to compare
scenarios indicating the energy savings and emissions reduction
potential of a range of technology applications. The tool utilizes
inputs from: (a) a review of current practices of energy use and
related GHG emissions in energy-intensive industrial sectors in
developing countries and comparison with similar industries in
developed countries that exemplify good current practice and (b) the
UNIDO technology inventory on energy efficient and alternative fuel
technologies. It employs layered spreadsheets using a four level
hierarchy through which the user can move to a specific industrial
sector, a stage of production activity within that sector, and on to
specific processes and technologies appropriate to that production
stage.
Implementation status: Development of the tool
will be completed by December 1996. Field testing, dissemination and
training will be undertaken under phase II in 1997
Funding: Phase I - Funded in conjunction with
the UNIDO technology inventory
Completion date: COP third session
Type of methodology: Assessing mitigation
technologies and processes
Project title: Integrated Plant Nutrition System
(INPS)
Organization: Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations
Description: One of the negative effects of
agriculture on the environment is the emission of several greenhouse
gases, due to inefficient use of valuable inputs such as
fertilizers.
FAO adopts and promotes a broad definition of inputs, including
"physical" inputs (fertilizer, pesticides) and improved management.
The Integrated Plant Nutrition System (INPS) identifies the best
associations of various inputs needed to balance plant nutrition and
high yields, while sustaining soil fertility and controlling nutrient
losses, in particular nitrous oxide emitted to the atmosphere. FAO
collaborates with international and national agricultural research
institutes to achieve this goal.
Completion date: Ongoing activities
Funding: Based on recent years and planned
activities: FAO regular programme (US$ 500,000 per year) and
bilateral trust fund contributions of about US$ 1 million per
year.
Type of methodology: Assessing mitigation
technologies
Project title: Comparing energy
technologies
Organization: International Energy
Agency
Description: Study published as a book,
Comparing Energy Technologies, considers the state of the
art in methodologies for assessing and comparing energy technologies,
plus the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. It includes
experts' reports on energy research and development approaches and
assessment criteria in Canada, France, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands,
the United Kingdom, the United States and the European
Union.
Implementation status: Completed. A second study
is planned for 1997 and will include China, India and the Republic of
Korea and possibly several other developing countries
Funding: Support was received from the
Government of Japan, the European Commission DG XII and the United
Kingdom Department of Trade and Industry
Completion date: January 1996
Type of methodology: Assessing mitigation
measures and policies
Project title: Economics of greenhouse gas
limitations: establishment of a methodological framework for climate
change mitigation assessment (phase I)
Organization: UNEP Atmosphere Unit, in collaboration with Centre on Energy
and the Environment - Riso
Description: This project seeks to provide a
methodological framework for climate change mitigation analysis and
strategy development and provide a basis for national communications
as required by the UNFCCC. It will also identify cost options for
climate change mitigation and enhance institutional capacity in
participating countries and involved regional "centres of
experience".
Implementation status: Although the project was signed in April 1996, the effective starting date is May 1996. So far, a meeting of the country
coordinators took place in June 1996 and a training workshop
for participating countries was conducted in August
1996.
Funding: US$ 3 million (from GEF)
Completion date: April 1998
Type of methodology: Assessing mitigation
measures and policies
Project title: Methods for assessment of
mitigation options
Organization: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
Description: Examines the analytical methods and
processes for selecting and analysing mitigation options that are
best suited to the specific needs, conditions and national goals of
individual countries, especially in developing and transitional
economy countries. The purpose is to help policy analysts and
decision makers to obtain objective information on the options and to
develop coherent national plans.
Funding: Funding fully borne by the
IPCC
Completion date: November 1994