Results phase II

These are listed in the order added to the page - additions will always be at the bottom.

Some contributors may have submitted more than one set of results - please check the whole page.
When submitting graphics, please bear in mind that jpeg was designed for continuous-tone images such as photographs. It does a terrible job of compressing images of text and graphs, producing a lot of artifacts. Please try to submit in a lossless format such as gif or png.

Date: Mon, 22 Jul 2002
From: Niklas Höhne n.hoehne@ecofys.de

ECOFYS

 

Date: Thu, 1 Aug 2002
From: "Baard Romstad" bard.romstad@cicero.uio.no

CICERO

With the approach we used for attribution calculation the climate output indicators requested are not a direct result of the calculations. We could generate the climate indicators requested by scaling our reference run with the relative attributions, but as I'm not sure how you plan to compile the results we won't do this unless we are requested to.

Date: Thu, 1 Aug 2002
From: "Jesper Thorsten Gundermann (ENS)" JGU@ENS.dk

DEA-CAT

See also presentation below

Date: Mon, 16 Sep 2002
From: Ian Enting Ian.Enting@csiro.au

CSIRO

See revised version below

Date: Tue, 06 Aug 2002
From: Hapke Hapke@semgym.uni-tuebingen.de / Fabian Wagner

LBNL

Date: Fri, 09 Aug 2002
From: Takanobu KOSUGI kosugi@rite.or.jp

RITE

The assumptions/conditions of our model runs are as follows:

  • Historical emissions data: CDIAC database
  • Future emissions scenarios: A2, B1 and A1FI, from the IPCC SRES (For CO2 emissions only. Non-CO2 GHGs emissions are assumed to be zero.)
  • The emissions start year: 1991
  • The emissions end years: 2010, 2050 and 2100
  • Countries/regions: OECD90, REF, ASIA and ALM used in the IPCC SRES.
  • Model parameters: Reference case only (same as Phase 1)

The attribution of the region was determined by subtracting the result data for the case where the emission from the region of interest is excluded from calculation for the assumed emission period that is from the start year to the end year from the result data for the case where the emissions from all the four regions are considered.

Each attached Excel file contains nine sheets corresponding to the combinations of the three future emissions scenarios and the three emission end years.

Date: Sat, 10 Aug 2002
From: Natalia Andronova natasha@atmos.uiuc.edu

UIUC

Methodology of calculations:

  1. Emissions for each for gases CO2, CH4, N2O and SOx ( j=1,4) for each 4 regions (i=1,4), E(i,j), and world emissions, EW(j): 1890 -1990 Edgar 1.3; 1990 - 2000 A2 (ASF);
  2. Emissions to concentrations: 1890 - 2000 from Schlesinger, M. E. and S. Malyshev (2002);
  3. Concentrations to forcing: IPCC simplified expressions;
  4. Global temperature response DT: CRG simple climate model;
  5. Attribution of temperature change to the cumulative emissions for each 4 regions (i=1,4):
      DT(i) = DT*sum j =1,4 {sum i =1,4 [E(i,j)] /EW(j)}
  6. Reference: Schlesinger, M. E. and S. Malyshev (2002): Changes in Near-Surface Temperature and Sea Level for the Post-SRES CO2-Stabilization Scenarios. Integrated Assessment, 2(3), 95-199.

Date: Mon, 12 Aug 2002
From: "Ben Matthews" ben@chooseclimate.org

JCM

Date: Fri, 06 Sep 2002
From: Atsushi Kurosawa kurosawa@iae.or.jp

GRAPE (first submission)

See revision below

Date: Sun, 08 Sep 2002
From: Atul Jain jain@atmos.uiuc.edu

ISAM

Date: Tue, 10 Sep 2002
From: Martin R Manning m.manning@niwa.co.nz

NIWA

Date: Tue, 10 Sep 2002
From: Jason A Lowe jason.lowe@metoffice.com

UKMO
  • report_v2.doc - Word document containing a few notes about what was done (pdf)
  • results_v1.ppt - Power point presentation containing results of phases 1 and 2 (pdf)
  • basic_cdiac_all.txt - Text file for model run with CDIAC CO2 (other gases from EDGAR/HYDE) that contains global mean CO2, CH4, N2O, forcing and temperature.
  • - As above but for EDGAR-HYDE CO2 emissions
  • feedback_cdiac_all.txt - As above but using the extended feedback model with CDIAC emissions
  • feedback_edgar_all.txt - As above but using the extended feedback model with EDGAR emissions

Date: Thu, 12 Sep 2002
From: Michael Schaeffer Michael.Schaeffer@rivm.nl

RIVM

See draft full report below

These gif files contain the figures of the RIVM phase-2 report, which is not ready for publication yet. The graphs include short explanations. Hopefully this will be enough for now to decide what data to use from RIVM and other groups for the synthesis.

Date: Mon, 16 Sep 2002
From: Ian Enting Ian.Enting@csiro.au

CSIRO

See revised version below

Date: Wed, 18 Sep 2002
From: Atsushi Kurosawa kurosawa@iae.or.jp

GRAPE (second submission)

Revised phase 2 result of the GRAPE model is attached. I attached MSword file because there was an indication that my pdf file cannot be read. I found a mishap in temperature contribution calculation and revised percentage share and one related graph. This revision does not effect the main calculation and it is only related to the contribution assessment. The global scale basic assessment from page 1 is not consistent with phase 1.

Date: Thu, 19 Sep 2002
From: Michael Schaeffer Michael.Schaeffer@rivm.nl

RIVM

Date: Fri, 20 Sep 2002
From: Ian Enting Ian.Enting@csiro.au

CSIRO

This is a short note on studies about different ways of treating the non-linear aspects (concentrating on the dependence of radiative forcing on CO2 concentration). It uses the 13 groups of the RIVM group, because the treatment of non-lieanrity will matter most as one gets down to smaller groups (i.e. the national level).
This is an update that has some preliminary numbers for the SRES cases. More importantly, it has a diagram that may help explain the differences between the cases.

Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002
From: "Jesper Thorsten Gundermann (ENS)" JGU@ENS.dk

DEA-CCAT

Intervention presentation including plots comparing temperature and sea level metrics, by gas, for the differential, the marginal, and the time slice method.

Last updated: January 2003

These are listed in the order added to the page - additions will always be at the bottom.

Some contributors may have submitted more than one set of results - please check the whole page.
When submitting graphics, please bear in mind that jpeg was designed for continuous-tone images such as photographs. It does a terrible job of compressing images of text and graphs, producing a lot of artifacts. Please try to submit in a lossless format such as gif or png.

Date: Mon, 22 Jul 2002
From: Niklas Höhne n.hoehne@ecofys.de

ECOFYS

 

Date: Thu, 1 Aug 2002
From: "Baard Romstad" bard.romstad@cicero.uio.no

CICERO

With the approach we used for attribution calculation the climate output indicators requested are not a direct result of the calculations. We could generate the climate indicators requested by scaling our reference run with the relative attributions, but as I'm not sure how you plan to compile the results we won't do this unless we are requested to.

Date: Thu, 1 Aug 2002
From: "Jesper Thorsten Gundermann (ENS)" JGU@ENS.dk

DEA-CAT

See also presentation below

Date: Mon, 16 Sep 2002
From: Ian Enting Ian.Enting@csiro.au

CSIRO

See revised version below

Date: Tue, 06 Aug 2002
From: Hapke Hapke@semgym.uni-tuebingen.de / Fabian Wagner

LBNL

Date: Fri, 09 Aug 2002
From: Takanobu KOSUGI kosugi@rite.or.jp

RITE

The assumptions/conditions of our model runs are as follows:

  • Historical emissions data: CDIAC database
  • Future emissions scenarios: A2, B1 and A1FI, from the IPCC SRES (For CO2 emissions only. Non-CO2 GHGs emissions are assumed to be zero.)
  • The emissions start year: 1991
  • The emissions end years: 2010, 2050 and 2100
  • Countries/regions: OECD90, REF, ASIA and ALM used in the IPCC SRES.
  • Model parameters: Reference case only (same as Phase 1)

The attribution of the region was determined by subtracting the result data for the case where the emission from the region of interest is excluded from calculation for the assumed emission period that is from the start year to the end year from the result data for the case where the emissions from all the four regions are considered.

Each attached Excel file contains nine sheets corresponding to the combinations of the three future emissions scenarios and the three emission end years.

Date: Sat, 10 Aug 2002
From: Natalia Andronova natasha@atmos.uiuc.edu

UIUC

Methodology of calculations:

  1. Emissions for each for gases CO2, CH4, N2O and SOx ( j=1,4) for each 4 regions (i=1,4), E(i,j), and world emissions, EW(j): 1890 -1990 Edgar 1.3; 1990 - 2000 A2 (ASF);
  2. Emissions to concentrations: 1890 - 2000 from Schlesinger, M. E. and S. Malyshev (2002);
  3. Concentrations to forcing: IPCC simplified expressions;
  4. Global temperature response DT: CRG simple climate model;
  5. Attribution of temperature change to the cumulative emissions for each 4 regions (i=1,4):
      DT(i) = DT*sum j =1,4 {sum i =1,4 [E(i,j)] /EW(j)}
  6. Reference: Schlesinger, M. E. and S. Malyshev (2002): Changes in Near-Surface Temperature and Sea Level for the Post-SRES CO2-Stabilization Scenarios. Integrated Assessment, 2(3), 95-199.

Date: Mon, 12 Aug 2002
From: "Ben Matthews" ben@chooseclimate.org

JCM

Date: Fri, 06 Sep 2002
From: Atsushi Kurosawa kurosawa@iae.or.jp

GRAPE (first submission)

See revision below

Date: Sun, 08 Sep 2002
From: Atul Jain jain@atmos.uiuc.edu

ISAM

Date: Tue, 10 Sep 2002
From: Martin R Manning m.manning@niwa.co.nz

NIWA

Date: Tue, 10 Sep 2002
From: Jason A Lowe jason.lowe@metoffice.com

UKMO
  • report_v2.doc - Word document containing a few notes about what was done (pdf)
  • results_v1.ppt - Power point presentation containing results of phases 1 and 2 (pdf)
  • basic_cdiac_all.txt - Text file for model run with CDIAC CO2 (other gases from EDGAR/HYDE) that contains global mean CO2, CH4, N2O, forcing and temperature.
  • - As above but for EDGAR-HYDE CO2 emissions
  • feedback_cdiac_all.txt - As above but using the extended feedback model with CDIAC emissions
  • feedback_edgar_all.txt - As above but using the extended feedback model with EDGAR emissions

Date: Thu, 12 Sep 2002
From: Michael Schaeffer Michael.Schaeffer@rivm.nl

RIVM

See draft full report below

These gif files contain the figures of the RIVM phase-2 report, which is not ready for publication yet. The graphs include short explanations. Hopefully this will be enough for now to decide what data to use from RIVM and other groups for the synthesis.

Date: Mon, 16 Sep 2002
From: Ian Enting Ian.Enting@csiro.au

CSIRO

See revised version below

Date: Wed, 18 Sep 2002
From: Atsushi Kurosawa kurosawa@iae.or.jp

GRAPE (second submission)

Revised phase 2 result of the GRAPE model is attached. I attached MSword file because there was an indication that my pdf file cannot be read. I found a mishap in temperature contribution calculation and revised percentage share and one related graph. This revision does not effect the main calculation and it is only related to the contribution assessment. The global scale basic assessment from page 1 is not consistent with phase 1.

Date: Thu, 19 Sep 2002
From: Michael Schaeffer Michael.Schaeffer@rivm.nl

RIVM

Date: Fri, 20 Sep 2002
From: Ian Enting Ian.Enting@csiro.au

CSIRO

This is a short note on studies about different ways of treating the non-linear aspects (concentrating on the dependence of radiative forcing on CO2 concentration). It uses the 13 groups of the RIVM group, because the treatment of non-lieanrity will matter most as one gets down to smaller groups (i.e. the national level).
This is an update that has some preliminary numbers for the SRES cases. More importantly, it has a diagram that may help explain the differences between the cases.

Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002
From: "Jesper Thorsten Gundermann (ENS)" JGU@ENS.dk

DEA-CCAT

Intervention presentation including plots comparing temperature and sea level metrics, by gas, for the differential, the marginal, and the time slice method.

Last updated: January 2003