Results phase I

These are listed in the order added to the page - additions will always be at the bottom.
Some contributors may have submitted more than one set of results - please check the whole page.
When submitting graphics, please bear in mind that JPEG was designed for continuous-tone images such as photographs. It does a terrible job of compressing images of text and graphs, producing a lot of artifacts.
Please try to submit in a lossless format such as GIF or PNG.

See also Collated Results for graphs

Date: Fri, 31 May 2002 15:21:05 +1000

phase 1 results from CSIRO

Attachments are results as HTML file and documentation and plots as pdf file which is draft of CSIRO Atmospehric Research Technical paper no 56. In principle, the plots differ slightly from the final results (in part due to late changes in specifications). In practice, most differences will be less than line width.

Further processing by CRU:

Date: Fri, 31 May 2002 20:16:50 +1200
From: Martin R Manning

NIWA New Zealand

Results deleted at Martin's request - please see replacement results below

The only other comment that I want to make at this stage is that, as noted in "Notes.doc", I am unhappy with the means of going from radiative forcing to temperature adopted here. I would rather avoid using the impulse climate response model as described by Jason Lowe as I suspect it is not well adapted to the gradual forcing scenario we are looking at here. I not sure why I went down this track because I have never used this type of "climate model" before, but right now (31 May) I do not have another temperature result to send you that is guaranteed to be consistent with the rest of this analysis.

Because of this I would like to consider submitting "NZ version 2" in a few days time which will use an energy balance model with ocean heat uptake in order to estimate changes in mean surface temperature. So I hope that submission of more than one set of results and going over the deadline slightly might be allowed.

Date: Fri, 31 May 2002 20:40:08 +0100
From: Ben Matthews -

Java Climate Model

Dr Ben Matthews, Klima und Umwelt Physik, Bern, with Prof Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, UCL, Louvain-la-Neuve

For this preliminary assessment, I submit three sets of data created using the Java Climate Model (JCM) These are described in the files attached (total eight files) Read first jcm_fccc_assessment.rtf , which explains more about the JCM

I have made a web page including a script to automatically set up the java model as for these experiments, so it's easy to check and vary the parameters. One button changes all the parameters and layout automatically. This can be found at: or This page can also be found from the documentation menu. These scripts work OK in IE and NS4.x, but not yet using NS6

  • Simple exp: TXT, GIF (specified experiment)
  • Hadley exp: TXT, GIF (as data provided)
  • Default (TAR): TXT, GIF (as TAR setup)
  • Plot legend
  • Documentation (RTF - Rich Text Format - should open in most word processors)

Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2002 17:05:30 +0200
From: "Baard Romstad" -


Attached follows results from CICERO for phase 1 in the UNFCCC Assessment of contribution to climate change. In the zipped folder ( you will find our results as text files and graphics and a note describing our work.

Date: Mon, 03 Jun 2002 10:49:13 -0700
From: Fabian Wagner -


See revised results lower down

Please find attached three files containing our (preliminary) contribution to the assessment exercise: a documentation (PDF), the time series results (ASCII), and corresponding EXCEL tables and graphs.
Comments on how to ensure time series continuity of CH4 emissions in 1990-2000 would be welcome.

Date: Tue, 04 Jun 2002 19:57:42 +1200
From: Martin R Manning -

NIWA New Zealand results - Phase 1 - Version 2

Please find attached a UPDATED submission of results to the UNFCCC/SBSTA study. To avoid future confusion could I ask you to delete the previous versions sent on May 31.

  1. NZResults_Phase1_v2.txt: Ascii data as requested - see header for description of columns
  2. Notes.doc: Some description of the methods used here and some observations of the difficulties we see with the present protocol.
  3. CO2Plot.jpg, CH4Plot.jpg, TempPlot.jpg - JPEG format plots comparing the model results with observed values for the three variables.

Following on from my comments last week we have investigated using some alternate models connecting radiative forcing to temperature and the differences were not as large as expected. However, the updated results attached are for the Joos & Bruno 1996 model of heat uptake by the ocean using the same mixed layer pulse response function as used in the carbon cycle model.

Further processing by CRU:

Date: Thu, 30 May 2002 06:20:41 +0900
From: Takanobu KOSUGI -

RITE phase 1

These are calculated by a simple climate change model based on MAGICC utilized in an integrated assessment model DNE21. The DNE21 model have been developed by RITE and the university of Tokyo collaboratively.

  • CSV, GIF - calculated cumulative CO2 emissions since 1770, together with the cumulative emissions of other GHGs based on the emissions
  • CSV, CO2.GIF, CH4+N2O.GIF - concentrations
  • CSV, GIF - radiative forcing relative to 1990
  • CSV, GIF - global-average surface air temperature change relative to 1990

(CSV are Comma-Separated Value text files which should open in any spreadsheet)

Date: Sat, 01 Jun 2002 17:46:04 -0500
From: Atul Jain -

ISAM results for Phase I

Note that the ISAM estimated CO2 concentrations for this study are slightly different than presented in TAR because of the differences in RF and DT2x values as well as the different methods used to reconstruct the past globally averaged response to carbon cycle to observed changes in atmospheric CO2. Attached is a paper that gives details on results of ISAM carbon cycle model used for SRES scenario projections in the IPCC TAR as well as brief description of ISAM model used here.

Date: Sun, 2 Jun 2002 04:12:08 +0200
From: "Gundermann, Jesper Thorsten" -


Date: Thu, 06 Jun 2002 19:25:59 +0900
From: Atsushi KUROSAWA -

GRAPE results for phase 1

See revised results below

Date: Mon, 17 Jun 2002 11:09:39 -0700
From: Fabian Wagner -

LBNL revised results

Here is a revised phase 1 submission from LBNL. A bug in the calculation leading to the concentration calculation for CH4 and N2O has been fixed and the documentation as well as the charts have been updated.

Date: Fri, 5 Jul 2002 18:12:38 +0200
From: Niklas Höhne -


Date: Mon, 08 Jul 2002 15:16:02 +0900
From: Atsushi KUROSAWA -

GRAPE results for phase 1 (revised)

We found mishaps in the assessment of radiative forcing and air temperature. I would like to ask you to update the files attached and collated results phase I. We have already conducted sea level rise calculation based on the impulse response function on the project web page. This information is not included in the attachment to keep consistency with previous report.

Date: Tue, 16 Jul 2002 16:16:08 +0200
From: Michiel Schaeffer -

RIVM phase I results