CDIAC database for:

Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Consumption
Carbon Flux from Land-Cover Change

Future emission scenarios

Future emissions scenarios A2 from the IPCC Special report on emission scenarios.

Countries/regions

Global (No regional groups)

Model parameters

Emissions to concentrations:

Carbon cycle parameters, representing the Bern carbon cycle model
Single (IPCC TAR) lifetimes should be used for other greenhouse gases, the OH chemical feedback effects will be neglected.

Concentrations to radiative forcing:

The saturation of the absorption bands for CO₂ should be included as a logarithmic relationship, as in the IPCC TAR.
The N₂O-CH₄ band overlap should be included as in the IPCC TAR.

Radiative forcing to temperature increase:

Climate response parameters obtained from the HadCM3 climate model.

Emissions start dates: 1890, 1950 and 1990

Emission end dates: 1990, 2000, 2050 and 2100

The time for which the attribution calculations will be performed: 2000, 2050, 2100, 2500

Clearly not all combinations of start and end date are meaningful. Start dates must always be before the end date. Attribution calculations made for a point in time before the emissions end dates will not include the effect of emissions beyond the date of the attribution calculation. Attribution calculation made for a point in time after the emissions end date assumes zero emissions after the end date.

CDIAC database

EDGAR database Only emissions from 1970 to 1995 are currently available. RIVM are working on providing historical emissions from 1890 and will post them on the web April 2002.

Future emissions scenarios should comprise the B1, A2 and A1FI emission scenario from the IPCC Special report on emission scenarios.

The groups of countries considered should include at least the groups used in the IPCC Special report on emission scenarios, which consist of

States that were members of the OECD in 1990 (OECD90)

Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union (REF)

Asia (ASIA)

Africa and Latin America (ALM)

Model parameters

Emissions to concentrations:

A range of carbon cycle parameters from the Bern CC model with a low, reference and high CO₂ case or other own carbon cycle representation.

Single (IPCC TAR) lifetimes should be used for other greenhouse gases, the OH chemical feedback effects will be neglected.

Concentrations to radiative forcing:

The saturation of the absorption bands for CO₂ should be included as a logarithmic relationship, as in the IPCC TAR.

The N₂O-CH₄ band overlap should be included as in the IPCC TAR.

Global mean aerosol particle forcing as provided by the Hadley Centre. These forcings can be used in the calculation of global mean climate change, but not in the attribution of responsibility calculations.

Radiative forcing to temperature increase:

A range of climate response parameters, representing several different GCM models (see project web site for the default values) or own climate response, default is the HadCM3 climate model used also in phase I. Non-linearities in the carbon cycle, radiative forcing and climate model may be investigated, but feedback between temperature and chemistry will not be included at this stage.