This report has been prepared in response to the request from CMA3 for the secretariat to annually update the NDC synthesis report.

This report synthesizes information from the 168 latest available NDCs, representing 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement, including the 153 new or updated NDCs communicated by 180 Parties, recorded in the NDC registry as at 25 September 2023, covering 94.9 per cent of the total global emissions in 2019, which are estimated at 52.6 Gt CO2 eq without LULUCF. A total of 20 Parties have communicated new or updated NDCs since 23 September 2022 (the cut-off date for submissions covered in the previous version of this report), which includes a Party that ratified the Paris Agreement after that date.

The COP and CMA guidance on the information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding of NDCs was used as a framework for synthesizing the relevant information contained in the communicated NDCs, which was supplemented by the synthesis of other information included in the NDCs but not covered by the guidance. The synthesized information is presented for all the represented Parties taken together.

A total of 95 per cent of Parties provided the information necessary to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding of their NDCs in accordance with the COP guidance, with 94 per cent of Parties that submitted new or updated NDCs already applying the relevant further CMA guidance.

All Parties provided information on mitigation targets or mitigation co-benefits resulting from adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans. The mitigation targets range from economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets to strategies, policies, plans and actions for low-emission development. In their NDCs:

• 94 per cent of Parties provided quantified mitigation targets, expressed as clear numerical targets, while 6 per cent included strategies, policies, plans and actions for which there is no quantifiable information as components of their NDCs;
• 80 per cent of Parties communicated economy-wide targets, covering all or almost all sectors defined in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, with an increasing number of Parties moving to absolute emission reduction targets in their new or updated NDCs;
• In terms of GHGs, all NDCs cover CO₂ emissions, 91 per cent cover CH₄, 89 per cent cover N₂O, 54 per cent cover HFCs, 36 per cent cover PFCs and SF6 and 26 per cent cover NF₃;
• 46 per cent of Parties provided information on mitigation co-benefits resulting from their adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans, mostly in combination with other targets.

Types of mitigation target and share of Parties that communicated them in nationally determined contributions

Sectors and greenhouse gases covered by Parties that communicated them in nationally determined contributions

A total of 93 per cent of Parties communicated an NDC implementation period of until 2030, while 7 per cent specified an implementation period of until 2025, 2035, 2040 or 2050. While 54 per cent of Parties identified 1 January 2021 as their starting date for NDC implementation, 30 per cent indicated that they started implementing their NDC in or before 2020 and 5 per cent mentioned starting implementation in 2022.

In addition, 96 per cent of Parties provided quantified information on their mitigation targets and reference points. Of the Parties that submitted new or updated NDCs, 84 per cent updated the basis for defining their targets, including reference points and/or ‘business as usual’ scenarios. Such updates lead to higher-quality NDCs and, for some Parties, to significant changes in the estimated emission levels for 2025 and 2030.

Share of Parties indicating in nationally determined contributions the intention to use or possibility of using specific scopes of voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement

A total of 77 per cent of Parties stated that they plan to or will possibly use at least one type of voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Use of cooperative approaches referred to in Article 6, paragraph 2, was most frequently communicated by Parties (53 per cent), followed by use of the mechanism established by Article 6, paragraph 4, (35 per cent) and general use of voluntary cooperation (23 per cent).

Total global GHG emissions (without LULUCF) taking into account implementation of the latest NDCs are estimated to be around 53.2 (51.6–54.8) Gt CO2 eq in and 51.6 (48.3–54.8) Gt CO2 eq in 2030, which are: 

• In 2025, 55.2 per cent higher than in 1990 (34.3 Gt CO2 eq), 12.2 per cent higher than in 2010 (47.4 Gt CO2 eq) and 1.0 per cent higher than in 2019 (52.6 Gt CO2 eq);
• In 2030, 50.5 per cent higher than in 1990, 8.8 per cent higher than in 2010 and 2.0 per cent lower than in 2019, as well as 3.1 per cent lower than the estimated level for 2025, indicating the possibility of global emissions peaking before 2030.

Projected range and progression of emission levels according to nationally determined
contributions

In comparison, the total GHG emission levels resulting from implementation of NDCs (those submitted by 23 September 2022) presented in the previous version of this report were estimated to be around 53.4 (51.8–55.0) Gt CO2 eq in 2025 and 52.4 (49.1–55.7) Gt CO2 eq in 2030. Those levels are very similar (at 0.2 Gt CO2 eq higher for 2025 and 0.8 Gt CO2 eq higher for 2030) to the levels presented in this report, the estimates of which reflect a slight increase in aggregate NDC ambition level and updated emission data.

The projected total global GHG emission level taking into account full implementation of all latest NDCs implies an even stronger possibility of global emissions peaking before 2030 than estimated in the previous version of this report, with the lower bound of the 2030 emission level (48.3 Gt CO2 eq) estimated to be up to 8.2 per cent below the 2019 emission level (52.6 Gt CO2 eq) and 6.3 per cent below the lower bound of the estimated 2025 emission level (51.6 Gt CO2 eq). However, in order to achieve that peaking, the conditional elements of the NDCs need to be implemented, which depends mostly on access to enhanced financial resources, technology transfer and technical cooperation, and capacity-building support; availability of market-based mechanisms; and absorptive capacity of forests and other ecosystems.

Comparison of scenarios assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report with projected total and per capita global emissions according to nationally determined contributions
 

The estimated total GHG emission level for 2030 associated with implementation of Parties’ INDCs implied a stronger emission increase above historical levels: 70.2 (58.8–81.6) per cent above the 1990 level, 23.0 (14.8–31.3) per cent above the 2010 level and 10.8 (3.4–18.2) per cent above the 2019 level.

Historical and projected total global emissions according to nationally determined contributions

The contribution of Working Group III to the AR6 concludes that, in scenarios of limiting warming to 1.5 °C (with over 50 per cent likelihood by 2100) with no or limited overshoot over the course of the century, GHG emissions are reduced by 43 (34–60) per cent by 2030 relative to the 2019 level. In scenarios of keeping warming likely below 2 °C (with over 67 per cent likelihood) with mitigation action starting in 2020, emissions in 2030 are 27 (13–45) per cent below the 2019 level.

The Synthesis Report of the AR6 indicates that the emission reductions until 2030 will have to be further enhanced for 2035 and beyond to be in line with pathways to limiting warming to 1.5 °C (with over 50 per cent likelihood in 2100) with no or limited overshoot over the course of the century. In those scenarios, GHG emissions are reduced by 60 (49–77) per cent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level. In scenarios of keeping warming likely below 2 °C (with over 67 per cent likelihood), emissions in 2035 are 37 (21–59) per cent below the 2019 level.

The absolute difference in the level of emissions by 2030 according to the latest NDCs and these IPCC scenarios is sizeable, despite progress compared with the level according to the INDCs as at 4 April 2016. The difference between the projected emission levels that do not take into account implementation of any conditional elements of NDCs and the emission levels in the scenarios of keeping warming likely below 2 °C (with over 67 per cent likelihood) by 2030 is estimated to be 15.1 (11.1–18.5) Gt CO2 eq. In relation to the scenarios of limiting warming to 1.5 °C (with over 50 per cent likelihood) and achieving net zero emissions this century, the gap is even wider, at an estimated 22.9 (21.3–27.9) Gt CO2 eq. However, assuming full implementation of all latest NDCs, including all conditional elements, the gap is slightly narrowed, towards 11.6 (7.6–15.1) Gt CO2 eq in relation to the aforementioned 2 °C scenarios and towards 19.5 (17.8–24.4) Gt CO2 eq in relation to the aforementioned 1.5 °C scenarios.

Historical and projected total global emissions according to nationally determined contributions

Taking into account implementation of NDCs up until 2030, projected global mean temperatures are subject to significant uncertainty owing to the range of emission levels estimated for 2030 resulting from implementation of NDCs (including whether conditional elements are implemented or not), the range of illustrative emission extensions beyond 2030 and inherent climate system uncertainties. The best estimate of peak temperature in the twenty-first century (projected mostly for 2100 when temperature continues to rise) is in the range of 2.1–2.8 °C depending on the underlying assumptions.

In the context of the carbon budget consistent with 50 per cent likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5 °C (500 Gt CO2), cumulative CO2 emissions in 2020–2030 based on the latest NDCs would likely use up 87 per cent of the remaining carbon budget, leaving a post-2030 carbon budget of around 70 Gt CO2, which is equivalent to approximately two years of projected total global CO2 emissions by 2030. Similarly, in the context of the carbon budget consistent with a likely chance of keeping warming below 2 °C (estimated by the IPCC to be 1,150 Gt CO2 from 2020 onward), cumulative CO₂ emissions in 2020–2030 based on the latest NDCs would likely use up around 38 per cent of the remaining carbon budget. For comparison, total global CO₂ emissions between 1850 and 2020 are estimated by the IPCC to have amounted to 2,390 (2,150–2,630) Gt CO₂.

A total of 48 per cent of Parties provided information on long-term mitigation visions, strategies and targets for up until and beyond 2050. Their total GHG emission level is estimated to be 38.8 (36.8–40.7) Gt CO₂ eq in 2030, which is 5 per cent higher than in 2010 (with a range from 1 per cent lower to 10 per cent higher) and 5 (0–10) per cent lower than in 2019.

Mindful of the inherent uncertainty of such long-term estimates, the information indicates that these Parties’ total GHG emission level could be 64.0 (60.0–68.0) per cent lower in 2050 than in 2019 and their annual per capita emissions would be 2.3 (2.0–2.6) t CO2 eq by 2050. Under scenarios of limiting warming to likely below 2 °C (with over 67 per cent likelihood), annual per capita emissions are 2.4 (1.6–3.1) t CO₂ eq; hence the estimated long-term per capita emissions of these Parties are at a level consistent with 2 °C scenarios. However, for scenarios of limiting warming to 1.5 °C (with 50 per cent likelihood by 2100) and achieving net zero CO₂ emissions around 2050 and net zero GHG emissions this century, annual per capita emissions by 2050 are required to be two to three times lower, at 1.3 (0.6–2.1) t CO₂ eq.

A total of 97 per cent of Parties explained their approach to NDC preparation and implementation, and 58 per cent of Parties linked their NDCs to their commitment to transitioning to a sustainable and/or low-carbon and resilient economy, taking into account social, environmental and economic factors as well as the SDGs. In addition, 48 per cent of Parties indicated that they have integrated their NDC targets, goals and policies into national legislative, regulatory and planning processes as a means of ensuring implementation.

Furthermore, 65 per cent of Parties highlighted policy coherence and synergies between their domestic mitigation measures  and development priorities, which include the SDGs and, for some that submitted new or updated NDCs, LT-LEDS and green recovery from the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.

Of the 79 per cent of Parties that referred to formal arrangements in place for domestic stakeholder consultation, 93 per cent indicated that they conducted consultations and engagement in an inclusive and participatory manner and 81 per cent of those specifically referenced gender-sensitive consultations.

Parties are increasingly recognizing gender integration as a means to enhance the ambition and effectiveness of their climate action: 79 per cent of Parties provided information related to gender in their NDCs and 33 per cent affirmed that they will take gender into account in implementing them. Of the Parties that referenced gender, 38 per cent had not included reference to gender in their previous NDCs, while 18 per cent considered gender to a similar extent to previously. Of the Parties that referenced gender in their previous NDCs, 68 per cent elaborated more on the topic in their updated NDCs.

Reference to gender in nationally determined contributions

A total of 40 per cent of Parties described the role of local communities and the role, situation and rights of Indigenous Peoples in the context of their NDCs, describing the specific vulnerabilities of Indigenous Peoples that are particular to their circumstances, the importance of drawing on Indigenous and local knowledge to strengthen climate efforts, and arrangements to enable greater participation in and contributions to climate action by Indigenous Peoples.

In addition, 98 per cent of Parties provided information on using one or more ACE elements to promote implementation of mitigation and adaptation activities, and in their new or updated NDCs Parties generally communicated more clearly and in more detail on general principles, past achievements, future commitments, and needs and gaps in relation to ACE.

A total of 81 per cent of Parties included an adaptation component in their NDCs and 13 per cent of the adaptation components were designated as adaptation communications. Parties provided information in particular on adaptation-related research; risks and vulnerabilities; adaptation strategies, policies and plans; sectoral adaptation measures; contingency measures; synergies with mitigation and other global frameworks; and monitoring and evaluation of adaptation.

In comparison with Parties’ previous NDCs, more of the NDCs contain adaptation information. The adaptation components of the NDCs, where included, indicate an increased focus on national adaptation planning, in particular on the process to formulate and implement NAPs. The new or updated NDCs include, in comparison with the same Parties’ previous NDCs, more information on time-bound quantitative adaptation targets and the associated indicator frameworks, more specific information on the contribution of adaptation efforts towards achieving the SDGs, and more specific information on synergies and co-benefits between adaptation and mitigation.

Synergies between efforts in adaptation priority sectors and efforts towards the Sustainable Development Goals identified in nationally determined contributions

In terms of adaptation priorities, the NDCs illustrate that Parties continue to focus on water resources, food production and nutrition security, terrestrial and wetland ecosystems, key economic sectors and services, and human health; followed by disaster risk management, coastal and low-lying areas, urban areas and human habitats, livelihoods and poverty, and ocean ecosystems

Share of adaptation components of nationally determined contributions referring to specific adaptation priority areas and sectors

A total of 99 per cent of Parties outlined domestic mitigation measures as key instruments for achieving mitigation targets for their NDCs and/or for priority areas, such as energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, AFOLU and waste. Concerning industry, the second largest source of global GHG emissions with the second highest annual growth rate of GHG emissions among the priority areas, 50 per cent of Parties mentioned associated measures, which is less frequently than for other priority areas (77–93 per cent).

Domestic mitigation measures for renewable energy generation were most frequently mentioned by 90 per cent of Parties, followed by measures for improving energy efficiency of buildings (73 per cent). 14 per cent of Parties communicated quantitative targets for the share of total renewable energy in electricity generation by 2030 that fall within or above the SR1.5 range of 47–65 per cent consistent with 1.5 °C pathways. Further, 6 per cent of Parties indicated quantitative targets that are consistent with or beyond the 1.5 °C pathways in the 2023 update of the IEA Net Zero Roadmap of tripling total installed capacity of renewables-based electricity generation by 2030.

Parties identified mitigation options costing less than USD 20/t CO2 eq, which are projected in the contribution of Working Group III to the AR6 to account for more than half of the total emission reduction potential required for being on 1.5 °C pathways by 2030. Such mitigation options with the highest estimated net emission reduction potential (in parentheses) include:

• Solar energy (3.3 Gt CO2 eq/year), with 50 per cent of Parties communicating corresponding measures;
• Wind energy (3.08 Gt CO2 eq/year), with 36 per cent of Parties indicating corresponding measures;
• Reducing conversion of forests and other ecosystems (2.28 Gt CO2 eq/year), with 38 per cent of Parties reporting corresponding measures;
• Improving energy efficiency in industry (1.14 Gt CO2 eq/year), with 30 per cent of Parties identifying corresponding measures;
• Reducing fluorinated gas emissions (0.94 Gt CO2 eq/year), with 39 per cent of Parties including corresponding measures.

Share of Parties referring to the specific priority areas and frequently indicated mitigation options in national determined contributions

Share of Parties referring to mitigation options with high mitigation potential costing below USD 20/t CO2 eq in 2030 in nationally determined contributions

A total of 46 per cent of Parties considered mitigation co-benefits resulting from their adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans. In their new or updated NDCs more Parties reported on mitigation co-benefits of adaptation action and economic diversification plans, including information on specific projects, measures and activities with the resulting co-benefits, compared with the information in their previous NDCs. Similarly, more Parties provided information on their consideration of social and economic consequences of response measures, and of just transition and/or economic diversification.

Adaptation actions and economic diversification plans with mitigation co-benefits include afforestation and reforestation activities, climate-smart agriculture, reducing food waste, vertical farming, adapting coastal ecosystems, conservation plans for protected areas, nature-based solutions, increasing the share of renewable sources in energy generation, improving energy efficiency, carbon dioxide capture and storage, fuel switch and fuel price reforms in the transport sector, and moving to circular economy for better waste management.

Of the 106 NDCs of island and coastal States submitted from 1 January 2020 to 11 October 2022, 73 per cent included at least one target, policy, or measure aimed at ocean-based climate action, of which 59 per cent included ocean-based adaptation actions, 48 per cent included ocean-based mitigation action, and 13 per cent action that links to both mitigation and adaptation goals.

New or updated NDCs reflect an increased recognition of the ocean’s role in strengthening climate action. A total of 10 per cent of the 148 new or updated NDCs submitted between 29 March 2019 and 1 October 2023 include a reference to ocean changes, such as acidification and coral bleaching, and/or climate-driven impacts on the ocean such as sea level rise. A total of 56 per cent of the 148 Parties integrated coastal and marine nature-based solutions within new or updated NDCs as part of mitigation or adaptation measures. 

Of the 158 Parties with an adaptation component in their NDCs, 30 per cent of the Parties identified ocean ecosystems as a priority sector for adaptation and 11 per cent developed quantified targets for both fisheries and ocean ecosystems.

A total of 95 per cent of Parties provided information on some or all means of implementation in their NDCs, although the structure and depth of that information varied significantly. While 61 per cent included a section on means of implementation or separate sections on finance, technology and/or capacity-building, 69 per cent mentioned or referred to aspects of means of implementation in other sections of their NDCs.

In their new or updated NDCs, 46 per cent of Parties provided quantitative estimates of financial support needs for NDC implementation, with 27 per cent providing updated quantitative estimates and 13 per cent providing such estimates for the first time.

A total of 61 per cent of Parties identified certain types of technology that they intend to use for implementing adaptation and mitigation actions, most frequently related to the energy, agriculture, water and waste sectors. Technology needs mentioned by Parties were mainly (41 per cent) of a cross-cutting nature addressing both adaptation and mitigation, followed by those focused on mitigation (33 per cent) or adaptation (24 per cent). Since the previous version of this report, the share of Parties (4 per cent) referring in their NDCs to policy and regulatory measures for promoting low-carbon and climate-resilient technologies towards implementing net zero strategies and decarbonization pathways at the national and sectoral level has grown.

Finally, 75 per cent of Parties identified capacity-building as a prerequisite for NDC implementation. Capacity-building needs for formulating policy, integrating mitigation and adaptation into sectoral planning processes, accessing finance and providing the information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding of NDCs were identified. In the new or updated NDCs, compared with in their previous NDCs, more Parties expressed capacity-building needs for adaptation.