IPCC Africa

AFRICA

Here are highlights of the projected impacts of climate change on the African region based on the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (see first box on top right of screen).

Freshwater. By 2020, scientists predict that 90 million to 220 million people would be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change. This magnifies water woes in a region already dealing with water-related problems.

Food. Yields from rain-fed agriculture could drop by up to half by 2020. Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions is projected to be severely affected by climate variability and change. The area of land suitable for agriculture, length of growing seasons and yield potential are expected to shrink-- particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas. Food security would be adversely affected, and malnutrition exacerbated.

Human health. Scientists predict a 5-7% potential increase in malaria distribution by the end of the century. Previously malaria-free highland areas in Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi could also experience malaria starting from around mid-century, potentially exposing communities with little or no immunity to a debilitating illness.

Coastal populations. Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations. The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5-10% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By 2015, three coastal megacities of at least 8 million inhabitants will be located in Africa. The projected rise in sea level will have significant impacts on these because of the concentration of poor populations in potentially hazardous areas that may be especially vulnerable to such changes.

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Africa, food and climate change

Kenyan farmer Emily Marigu has adapted to the changing climate through crop diversification by including sweet potatoes. These have now become even more important for her than her staple crops beans and maize. Photo: P. Casier (CGIAR).

By the 2080s, a significant decrease in suitable rain-fed land extent and production potential for cereals is estimated under climate change. Furthermore, for the same projections, for the same time horizon the area of arid and semi-arid land in Africa could increase by 5-8% (60-90 million hectares). The study shows that wheat production is likely to disappear from Africa by the 2080s.

In other countries, additional risks that could be exacerbated by climate change include greater erosion, deficiencies in yields from rain-fed agriculture of up to 50% during the 2000-2020 period, and reductions in crop growth period. A recent study on South African agricultural impacts, based on three scenarios, indicates that crop net revenues will be likely to fall by as much as 90% by 2100, with small-scale farmers being the most severely affected. However, there is the possibility that adaptation could reduce these negative effects. In Egypt, for example, climate change could decrease national production of many crops (ranging from –11% for rice to –28% for soybeans) by 2050 compared with their production under current climate conditions. Other agricultural activities could also be affected by climate change and variability, including changes in the onset of rain days and the variability of dry spells.

Details and citations available at: Food insecurity: the role of climate variability, change and other stressors, IPCC (2007), Fourth Assessment Report.

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Individual countries in Africa

For more detailed analysis of the climate change related vulnerabilities of each country in the African region, click on the following. These links will take you to the country pages of the Adaptation Learning Mechanism. The information is sourced from country assessments and other external sources.

Eastern Africa

Middle Africa

Northern Africa

Southern Africa

Western Africa

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