Meeting the EU 2°C climate target: Global and regional emission implications.
den Elzen, Michel G. J.
Electronic version available
This report presents a set of multi-gas emission pathways for different CO2-equivalent concentration stabilization levels, i.e. 400, 450, 500 and 550 ppm CO2-equivalent, along with an analysis of their global and regional reduction implications and implied probability of achieving the EU climate target of 2 degrees C. The effect of different assumptions made for baselines, technological improvement rates, or delay of global action on the resulting emission pathways is also analysed. For achieving the 2 degrees target with a probability of more than 60%, greenhouse gas concentrations need to be stabilized at 450 ppm CO2-equivalent or below, if the 90% uncertainty range for climate sensitivity is believed to be 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C. A stabilization at 450 (400) ppm CO2-equivalent requires global emissions to peak around 2015, followed by substantial overall reductions in the order of 30% (50%) compared to 1990 levels in 2050. In 2020, Annex I emissions need to be approximately 15% (30%) below 1990 levels. Non-Annex I emissions may increase compared to the 1990 levels, but not compared to their baseline emissions (15-20% reduction). A further delay in peaking of global emissions by 10 years doubles maximum reduction rates to about 5% per year, and very likely leads to high costs. In order to keep the option open of stabilising at 400 and 450ppm CO2 equivalent, the USA and major advanced non-Annex I countries will have to participate in an agreement aimed at reductions within 10-15 years.
Library has electronic copy (ebook: 2005-71)
This book is an additional information provided by The Climate Action Network International (CAN) to their submission in response to FCCC/KP/AWG/2007/L.2 (paragraph 8). Indicative ranges of emissions reduction objectives by Annex I Parties
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment
|Place of Publication|
Bilthoven (The Netherlands)