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Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate
change
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Adoption of Existing Socioeconomic Scenarios
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Description
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The UNEP Handbook describes an approach to developing sectoral assessments of impacts and adaptation.
In general, analysts are encouraged to use existing scenarios of both socioeconomic conditions and
climate change, to integrate them, and to develop adaptation strategies.
The definition of socioeconomic includes demographic and economic data, technology, legislation,
culture, decision-making processes – “everything that shapes a society.” Table 2.1
in the handbook lists relevant variables for each of the sectors covered (water resources, coastal
zones, agriculture, human health, energy, forestry, livestock and grasslands, wildlife and
biodiversity, and fisheries). Sources for data-based scenarios are given, and using multiple
scenarios is recommended. Specific guidance is sparse.
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Appropriate Use
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The Handbook can be used for analyses of sectoral impacts and adaptation to climate change.
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Scope
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Local, sectoral, regional, and national. However, sources for existing socioeconomic scenarios are
global and regional only, except for the World Bank, which includes countries.
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Key Output
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Scenarios that are either “borrowed” from the literature or “inspired” by
historical trends and geographical analogues.
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Key Input
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Qualitative and/or quantitative information on the sector of interest.
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Ease of Use
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Relatively easy, especially if literature sources are used instead of primary data gathering and
scenario development.
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Training Required
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No training required.
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Training Available
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No formal training currently offered.
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Computer Requirements
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None, although data may be downloaded from sources such as the World Bank and manipulated by
spreadsheet or other computer-based programs.
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Documentation
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Feenstra, J.F., I. Burton, J.B. Smith, and R.S.J. Tol (eds.). 1998. Handbook on Methods for Climate
Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies. Version 2.0. Available at 
http://www.falw.vu.nl/images_upload/151E6515-C473-459C-85C59441A0F3FB49.pdf
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Applications
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The first phase of the Netherlands Climate Change Study Assistance Programme (NCCSAP) lists 17
countries where socioeconomic scenarios are being or will be developed. The projects’ synopses
explicitly mention development of climate scenarios and socioeconomic scenarios to be used in the
impact and adaptation studies. Information is on
http://www.ivm.falw.vu.nl/Research_projects/index.cfm/home_subsection.cfm/subsectionid/CBFAAE8F-05BA-4EA0-A7C17193212663D0.
The book 'Climate Change in Developing Countries' mentioned on this site may be of interest
as well.
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Contacts for Framework, Documentation, Technical Assistance
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Dr. Michiel Van Drunen
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam; e-mail: michiel.van.drunen@ivm.falw.nl.
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Cost
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No cost
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References
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See Documentation
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