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Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate
change
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UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios
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Description
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The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios provide four alternative descriptions of how the climate of
the UK might evolve over the course of this century.
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Appropriate Use
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The UKCIP02 scenarios have become a standard reference for impacts and adaptation work in the UK.
Ways in which they have been used can be broadly divided into research, communication and decision-
and policy-making.
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Scope
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The climate change scenarios cover only the UK (though underlying model output is also available for
the Republic of Ireland), meaning their scope is limited to UK-based climate impacts and adaptation.
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Key Output
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The information contained in UKCIP02 is provided to users in three main ways:
Headline messages -provide a national overview of the main changes described by UKCIP02. They also
include historic trends, to allow recent observations to be compared with future projections;
Published material - explains the science behind UKCIP02, examines historic climate trends in the
UK and gives more information about the projected future changes. It includes a range of prepared
maps & graphs to help visualise the changes described;
Numerical information - provides the basis for the changes described by UKCIP02, allowing further
processing and analysis (e.g. as input to other modelling software).
Much has been converted to GIS-format files in order to facilitate its use. A series of datasets of
historic climate of the UK provide information on the observed climate.
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Key Input
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None required for headline messages and published material. Numerical information requires users to
complete a registration form. Use of UKCIP02 is most effective if users dedicate some time to
understand how the scenarios were produced, what they offer and the uncertainties involved. Their use
is enhanced through use of the other UKCIP tools.
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Ease of Use
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No information available
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Training Required
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No information available
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Training Available
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None provided
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Computer Requirements
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No information available
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Documentation
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UKCIP02 briefing report and science report; Scenarios Gateway web-pages (http://www.ukcip.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=161&Itemid=287).
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Applications
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Set of case studies is being developed. Ways in which they have been used can be broadly divided
into research, communication and decision- and policy-making.
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Contacts for Framework, Documentation, Technical Assistance
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Richard Westaway
Spatial
aggregation of UKCP09
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Cost
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No charge
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References
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Hulme et al. 2002. Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Briefing Report.
15pp.
Hulme et al. 2002. Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report.
120pp.
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