NEGOTIATIONS
FOCUS
PROCESS
KEY STEPS
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Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate
change
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Developing Socio-Economic Scenarios for Use in Vulnerability and
Adaptation Assessments
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Description
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The second and third steps of the Adaptation Policy Framework (APF), assessing current
vulnerability and characterizing future climate risks, involve developing socioeconomic scenarios
(called “conditions and prospects”).
Technical Paper 6 is devoted to guidance on this topic. Users are advised to include indicators
(qualitative or quantitative or a mix of both) in five categories: demography, economics, natural
resource use, governance/policy, and culture. The baseline should include current adaptations to
current climate. Users are then given guidance on constructing storylines of the future and
exploring at least two significantly different but possible futures.
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Appropriate Use
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The guidance on socioeconomic scenarios is designed as part of a larger process of developing
adaptation strategies, policies, and measures. Other analyses that interact with socioeconomic
scenarios are climate risks and vulnerability analyses. Crosscutting guidance is given on involving
stakeholders and increasing adaptive capacity.
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Scope
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Local, sectoral, regional, and national. The APF will be most useful at the local and sectoral
levels.
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Key Output
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Scenarios that include demographic, economic, governance/policy, and cultural indicators and data.
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Key Input
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Qualitative and/or quantitative information from various sources, including expert and stakeholder
input.
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Ease of Use
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The whole APF process requires a substantial commitment of time and resources; the scenario portion
can be developed using existing data and stakeholder input or more sophisticated methods such as
tailored computer-based models.
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Training Required
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No training required
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Training Available
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Formal training is being planned but is not currently offered.
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Computer Requirements
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None
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Documentation
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See http://ncsp.undp.org/report_detail.cfm?Projectid=151
for the User’s Guidebook and the Nine Technical Papers.
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Applications
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GEF projects in Latin America are being designed using the APF, but it has not yet been employed in
the projects.
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Contacts for Framework, Documentation, Technical Assistance
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National Communications Support Programme
UNDP-GEF, Room 1607, 304 East 45th St, NY, NY 10017, USA; Tel: 1.212.906.5730; Fax: 1.212.906.6568;
e-mail: ncsp@undp.org
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Cost
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No cost
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References
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See documentation
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