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Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate
change
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Policy Exercise
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Description
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A flexible structured method designed to synthesize and assess knowledge from several relevant
fields of science for policy purposes directed toward complex, practical management problems.
Policy exercise techniques provide an interface between scientists, academics, and policy makers.
At the heart of the process are scenario writing (“future histories,” emphasizing
nonconventional, surprise rich, but still plausible futures) and scenario analyses via the
interactive formulation and testing of alternative policies that respond to challenges in the
scenario. These scenario based activities typically take place in an organizational setting
reflecting the institutional feature of the issues that are addressed.
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Appropriate Use
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Policy exercise can be used to generate adaptation options or evaluate already identified adaptation
options, especially in the early phases of regional adaptation studies when there is a strong need to
structure the problem or in later phases to determine if sectoral policy responses might support or
undermine each other.
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Scope
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All regions, all sectors.
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Key Output
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Scenarios that inform the adaptation decision process and increase understanding of the
organizational and institutional setting in which the process is carried out.
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Key Input
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Views and ideas of representatives from key institutions.
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Ease of Use
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Depends on participation of experienced facilitators.
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Training Required
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Little or no training would be required for participants. Facilitators and support staff require
specialized training.
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Training Available
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No formal training offered. Sources of assistance in organizing a policy exercise can be obtained
from contact list.
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Computer Requirements
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Use of personal computers may be necessary to support the variety of models that the exercise might
employ.
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Documentation
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Toth, F.L. 1998. Policy exercises: Objectives and design elements. Simulation and Games
19:235-255.
Toth, F.L. 1998. Policy exercises: Procedures and implementation. Simulation and Games 19:256-276.
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Applications
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Southeast Asia (see References below). The exercises involved senior national-level policy makers
and senior analysts exploring policy responses under different climate change and impact scenarios.
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Contacts for Framework, Documentation, Technical Assistance
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Ferenc Toth
International Atomic Energy Agency, Wagramer Str. 5 P.O. Box 100, A-1400, Vienna, Austria; Tel:
+43.1.2600.22787; e-mail: f.l.toth@iaea.org.
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Cost
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No cost to obtain documentation and supplementary information. Cost of implementing will depend upon
the scope of inquiry.
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References
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Brewer, G.D. and M. Shubik. 1979. The War of Game: A Critique of Military Problem Solving. Harvard
University Press, Cambridge, MA.
Toth, F.L. and E. Hizsnyik. 2005. Managing the inconceivable: participatory assessments of impacts
and responses to extreme climate change. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
Working Paper FNU74.
Toth, F.L. 1992a. Global change and the cross-cultural transfer of policy games. In Global
Interdependence. D. Crookall and K. Arai (eds.). Springer, Tokyo, pp. 208-215.
Toth, F.L. 1992b. Policy implications. In The Potential Socioeconomic Effects of Climate Change in
South-East Asia, M.L. Parr, M. Blantran de Rozari, A.L. Chong, and S. Panich (eds.). United Nations
Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya, pp. 109-121.
Toth, F.L. 1992c. Policy responses to climate change in Southeast Asia. In The Regions and Global
Warming: Impacts and Response Strategies, J. Schmandt and J. Clarkson (eds.) Oxford University
Press, New York, pp. 304-322.
Toth, F.L. 2003. State of the art and future challenges for integrated environmental assessment.
Integrated Assessment 4(4):250-264.
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