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Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change

PAGE2002 (Policy Analysis for the Greenhouse Effect)

PAGE2002 is a spreadsheet probabilistic model written in Microsoft Office Excel with the @RISK add-in. The model calculates regional and global impacts of climate change, and social costs of different greenhouse gases. It also calculates the costs of abatement and adaptation. It is an Integrated Assessment Model starting from emission projections, and carrying uncertainties throughout the calculations.

Appropriate Use The model is designed to explore the impacts and social costs under any user-specified emission scenarios. It can be used to calculate optimal abatements.
Scope The model is global in scope, with a user-defined focus region. It calculates to 2200 by default.
Key Output The model and the results obtained with it are the key outputs.
Key Input Emission scenarios and about 80 parameter probability distributions covering both scientific and economic inputs.
Ease of Use Designed to be transparent and easy to use.
Training Required A single session with the model developer is all that is normally required.
Training Available The model developer will offer advice and support under contract.
Computer Requirements PC running Microsoft Office Excel and @RISK.
Documentation PAGE2002 is described in detail in Hope C, 2006, “The marginal impact of CO2 from PAGE2002: An integrated assessment model incorporating the IPCC's five reasons for concern”, Integrated Assessment, 6, 1, 19-56.

Several analyses performed for the GB Office of Gas and Electricity Markets who paid for the development of the model. PAGE2002 was the main model used for the impact calculations in the UK Government’s Stern report.

Contacts for Framework, Documentation, Technical Assistance

Dr Chris Hope

Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.

Cost The model is free to use, on the condition that any publications resulting from the use of the model include Dr Chris Hope as an author.

Alberth, S. and C. Hope. 2007. Climate modelling with endogenous technical change: Stochastic learning and optimal greenhouse gas abatement in the PAGE2002 model. Energy Policy 35: 1795-1807.

Dietz S, C. Hope and N. Patmore. 2007. Some Economics of ‘Dangerous’ Climate Change: Reflections on the Stern Review. Global Environmental Change 17(3-4):311-325.

Dietz, S., C. Hope, N. Stern and D. Zenghelis. 2007. Reflections On The Stern Review (1), A Robust Case for Strong Action to Reduce the Risks of Climate Change. World Economics 8(1):121 - 168.

Hope, C. and D. Newbery. 2007. Calculating the social cost of carbon. Chapter 2 of Grubb, M., T. Jamasb and M. Pollitt (eds.), Delivering a Low Carbon Electricity System: Technologies, Economics and Policy, Cambridge University Press.

Hope, C. 2005. Integrated Assessment Models. Chapter 4 in Helm, D. (ed.), Climate Change Policy, Oxford University Press.

Hope, C. 2006. The marginal impacts of CO2, CH4 and SF6 emissions. Climate Policy 6(5):537 - 544.

Hope, C. 2006. The marginal impact of CO2 from PAGE2002: An integrated assessment model incorporating the IPCC's five reasons for concern. Integrated Assessment 6(1):19-56.

Hope, C. 2006. The social cost of carbon: what does it actually depend on? Climate Policy 6(5):566 - 572.

Hope, C. 2007. Discount rates, equity weights and the social cost of carbon. Energy Economics. Available online 12 January 2007 at

Hope, C. 2007. PAGE Modeling system. Chapter 2 of the Yale Symposium on the Stern Review, Yale Center for the Study of Globalization,

Wahba, M. and C. Hope. 2006. The marginal impact of carbon dioxide under two scenarios of future emissions. Energy Policy 34(17):3305-3316.