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Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate
change
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MIASMA (Modeling Framework for the Health Impact Assessment of
Man-Induced Atmospheric Changes)
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Description
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MIASMA is a Windows-based modeling application that models several health impacts of global
atmospheric change and include simulation for several modules:
- Vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, and schistosomiasis;
- Thermal heat mortality;
- UV-related skin cancer due to stratospheric ozone depletion.
The models are driven by both population and climate/atmospheric scenarios, applied across baseline
data on disease incidence and prevalence, climate conditions, and the state of the stratospheric
ozone layer.
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Appropriate Use
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MIASMA can be used to link GCM output of climate change or scenarios of stratospheric ozone
depletion to any of the human health outcomes mentioned above. Applicability of this model is
limited only by the scope of available data.
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Scope
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Health; regional and global analysis.
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Key Output
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For the thermal stress module: cardiovascular, respiratory, and total mortality; for skin cancer
module: malignant melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer; for vector-borne disease modules: cases and
fatalities from malaria, and incident cases for dengue fever and schistosomiasis.
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Key Input
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Climate input is module or disease specific. For thermal stress, maximum and minimum temperature
are required. For skin cancer, the column loss of the stratospheric ozone over the site is required
to determine the level of UV-B radiation potentially reaching the ground. Requires maximum and
minimum temperature and rainfall. Vector-borne diseases also require other baseline data,
determinable by local experts. For example, for malaria it would help to know the level of partial
immunity in the human population and the extent of drug resistant malaria in the region.
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Ease of Use
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After a short training, the computer simulations should not be difficult.
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Training Required
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Requires familiarity with computer modeling; some mathematical skills may be beneficial.
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Training Available
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Please contact Dr. Pim Martens.
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Computer Requirements
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Pentium PC, 16 MB RAM, Windows 95 or NT4 or higher. For hard drive installation: 20 MB free disk
space. A monitor resolution of 1074 x 768 is recommended. To view the documentation and help files,
either Netscape Navigator (version 4 or higher) or Microsoft Internet Explorer (version 4 or higher)
is recommended.
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Documentation
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Martens, P. 1998. Health and Climate Change: Modeling the Impacts of Global Warming and Ozone
Depletion. Earthscan Publications, London.
Additional information can be found at http://www.m.rivm.nl/usr/miasma/miasma.htm.
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Applications
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Thermal stress module has been applied to 20 international cities. Skin cancer module has been
applied to The Netherlands and Australia. Vector-borne disease module has been used globally,
malaria module in Zimbabwe, and dengue module for Bangkok, San Juan, Mexico City, Athens, and
Philadelphia.
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Contacts for Framework, Documentation, Technical Assistance
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Dr. Pim Martens
CIS, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands; Tel: 31.43.388.3555; Fax: 31.43.321.1889;
e-mail: p.martens@icis.unimaas.nl.
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Cost
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Low cost (price of shipping CD-ROM and documentation).
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References
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Martens, W.J.M., T.H. Jetten et al. 1995. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: A global
modelling perspective. Global Environmental Change 5(3):195-209.
Martens, W.J.M., T.H. Jetten et al. 1997. Sensitivity of malaria, schistosomiasis, and dengue to
global warming. Climatic Change 35:145-156.
Martens, W.J.M. 1998. Climate change, thermal stress and mortality changes. Soc. Sci. Med.
46(3):331-344.
Martens, W. 1997. Health Impacts of Climate Change and Ozone Depletion: An Eco-Epidemiological
Modelling Approach. Dept. Mathematics. Maastricht, University of Maastricht.
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