NEGOTIATIONS
FOCUS
PROCESS
KEY STEPS
|
|
Your location: Home |
|
Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate
change
|
|
Global Sustainability Scenarios
|
|
Description
|
Scenarios of future vulnerability are poorly framed by existing scenarios developed for bracketing
future greenhouse gas emissions. Alternative scenarios of sustainability have been developed in
various forms, and these correspond to many of the conditions of vulnerability and adaptive
capacity that are of concern to development planners and practitioners.
A major suite of sustainability scenarios was developed by the Global Scenarios Group (GSG). These
include a conventional wisdom of market forces, a world of increasing degradation and
impoverishment, and a sustainability transition. They are similar to scenarios developed for the
UNEP Geo assessment. The GSG suite of scenarios includes storylines and quantified indicators for
major world regions using the PoleStar scenario tool developed by SEI-Boston.
|
|
Appropriate Use
|
The GSG and PoleStar data can be used to frame national or local scenarios of vulnerability, or to
place national development scenarios in context.
|
|
Scope
|
Global to regional; with some extensions they can be used to frame more local scenarios.
|
|
Key Output
|
Quantitative indicators of environmental change, economic conditions, and social welfare that can be
linked to climatic vulnerability.
|
|
Key Input
|
The storylines and overview are described in an SEI monograph, Great Transitions (see References).
|
|
Ease of Use
|
Very little effort is required to appreciate the storylines. PoleStar is not a simple model to
understand, although it is well documented. It may take several days to extract the quantitative data
and format for specific purposes; it is possible to create new subregions within PoleStar, but that
will require additional time and possibly training.
|
|
Training Required
|
None necessary, although further training in PoleStar may be warranted.
|
|
Training Available
|
SEI has used this tool in many contexts — contact SEI-Boston for training in PoleStar and the
GSG scenarios; SEI Oxford has developed explicit links to climate vulnerability using South Africa
and India as examples.
|
|
Computer Requirements
|
PC Windows.
|
|
Documentation
|
GSG web site, monograph and PoleStar software and manual are available through the SEI Boston office:
see http://www.sei.se.
|
|
Applications
|
Global to local socioeconomic scenarios of future climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity.
|
|
Contacts for Framework, Documentation, Technical Assistance
|
Paul Raskin, SEI-Boston for the GSG and PoleStar, 11 Arlington Street, Boston, MA 02116-3411, USA;
Tel: +1.617.266.8090; e-mail: praskin@tellus.org.
Dr. Thomas Downing, for application to climate change, Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford
Office, 10B Littlegate Street, Oxford, OX1 1QT, United Kingdom; Tel: +44.1865.202070; e-mail:
tom.downing@sei.se.
|
|
Cost
|
PoleStar is available for free in a demonstration version, which includes the GSG scenarios. The GSG
monograph is available free in an electronic version.
|
|
References
|
P. Raskin, et al. 2002. Great Transition. Stockholm Environment Institute, Boston. 
http://www.tellus.org/seib/publications/Great_Transitions.pdf.
|
|
|
| |
|
