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Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate
change
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Expert Judgment
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Description
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Expert judgment is an approach for soliciting informed opinions from individuals with particular
expertise. This approach is used to obtain a rapid assessment of the state of knowledge about a
particular aspect of climate change. It is frequently used in a panel format, aggregating opinions
to cover a broad range of issues regarding a topic. Expert judgment is frequently used to produce
position papers on issues requiring policy responses and is integral to most other decision-making
tools.
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Appropriate Use
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This approach is most useful either in conjunction with a full research study or when there is
insufficient time to undertake a full study. It is important to be aware, however, of the subjective
nature of expert judgment and the need to select a representative sample of experts to cover the full
spectrum of opinion on an issue.
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Scope
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All locations; all sectors; national or site-specific.
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Key Output
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Current information on any area of climate change and subjective assessment of potential adaptation
options.
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Key Input
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Knowledge of experts’ respective areas of expertise.
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Ease of Use
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Easy to apply
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Training Required
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Requires knowledge of policy issues and available experts. More training may be required to assemble
an expert panel, formulate questionnaires, and interpret and aggregate expert opinions.
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Training Available
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Informal training offered; contact Ian Burton for information.
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Computer Requirements
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None
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Documentation
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Not applicable
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Applications
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UK, Mackenzie Basin in Canada, Finland.
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Contacts for Framework, Documentation, Technical Assistance
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Ian Burton
Adaptation and Impacts Research Division (AIRD), Meteorological Service of Canada, 4905 Dufferin
Street, Downsview, ON M3S 5T4, Canada; Tel: 416.739.4314; Fax: 416.739.4297; e-mail: ian.burton@ec.gc.ca.
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Cost
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Cost depends on the fee charged by the experts
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References
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Cohen, S.J. (ed.). 1997. Mackenzie Basin Impact Study. No. En 50_118/1997_IE. Environment Canada,
Downsview, Ontario.
Smith, J.B. and D.A. Tirpak. 1990. The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United
States. Report to Congress, U.S. EPA, Washington, DC.
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