NEGOTIATIONS
FOCUS
PROCESS
KEY STEPS
|
|
Your location: Home |
|
Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate
change
|
|
Econometric (Ricardian-Based) Models
|
|
Description
|
Econometric models are manipulated with climate change scenarios to predict the economic costs of
adaptation. They estimate structural relations between historical climate and agricultural land
values under the presumption that such relations reflect a steady-state level of adaptation of
regional farming systems to local climate characteristics. These relations are cross-sectional
(i.e., units of observation are geographic areas) and the geographic variation in land values is
assumed to be partly regulated by differences in the quality of climate inputs. Parameter estimates
embed the relative efficiency of current adaptation to a range of climate conditions (cold and
warm).
|
|
Appropriate Use
|
Econometric models can capture the full range of economic adaptations that farmers and supporting
institutions are likely to use in response to climate change. They are particularly suited to
analysis that assumes no change in real crop prices in response to climate change. These tools do not
estimate the cost of adaptation.
|
|
Scope
|
All locations; agricultural sector; national or regional.
|
|
Key Output
|
Potential changes in regional or national cropping patterns, land prices, production, revenues, and
profits.
|
|
Key Input
|
Historical climate and land values
|
|
Ease of Use
|
Because no established or “canned” models exist, each application requires development of
a unique, region-specific model.
|
|
Training Required
|
Expertise in principles of econometric modeling
|
|
Training Available
|
No formal training offered
|
|
Computer Requirements
|
IBM-compatible PC
|
|
Documentation
|
See Mendelsohn et al., 1994, in References.
|
|
Applications
|
Econometric models have been used to estimate the economic cost/benefit of climate change for
agriculture and forestry in the United States, Brazil, and India.
|
|
Contacts for Framework, Documentation, Technical Assistance
|
Dr. Robert Mendelsohn
Yale University, 360 Prospect St., New Haven, CT 06511 USA; Tel: +1.203.432.5128; Fax:
+1.203.387.0766; e-mail: robert.mendelsohn@yale.edu.
|
|
Cost
|
Varies, depending on data needs and resources required for developing a unique model.
|
|
References
|
Dinar, A., R. Mendelsohn, R. Evenson, J. Parikh, A. Sanghi, K. Kumar, J. McKinsey, and S. Lonergon.
1998. Measuring the Impact of Climatic Change on Indian Agriculture. World Bank Technical Report
No. 409, The World Bank, Washington, DC.
Mendelsohn, R. and J. Neumann (eds.). 1999. The Impacts of Climate Change on the U.S. Economy.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England.
Mendelsohn, R., W. Nordhaus, and D. Shaw. 1994. The impact of global warming on agriculture: A
Ricardian analysis. American Economic Review 84(4):753-751.
Seo, S. and R. Mendelsohn. 2006. The impact of climate change on livestock management in Africa: a
structural Ricardian analysis. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 23, Centre for Environmental Economics
and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria.
|
|
|
| |
|
