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Your location: Home > Adaptation > Nairobi Work Programme > Knowledge Resources and Publications |
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Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate
change
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Decision Support Systems Linking Agro-Climatic Indices with
GCM-Originated Climate Change Scenarios
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Description
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Key agro-climatic indices for the crops under study are defined (e.g., crop heat units, growing
degree-days, effective growing degree-days, precipitation deficits, seasonal crop coefficients of
water demand). Typically these indices are calculated using gridded monthly observed climatic
normals for average daily maximum and minimum air temperature, total precipitation, and solar
radiation.
Climate change scenarios are then obtained from the outputs of GCMs and different statistical
packages are used for interpolating and downscaling the results (e.g., PRISM, ANUSPLIN). The
agro-climatic indices are then recalculated for the climate change scenarios, and adaptive
management options are explored (different crop species, different cultivars, sowing dates, etc.).
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Appropriate Use
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To study expected shifts in the agro-climatic zones for different crop types under possible climate
change scenarios, and to explore the adaptive ability of crop types and management options (planting
date, cultivar types).
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Scope
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Agro-ecological zone level (national, regional).
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Key Output
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Changes in crop yields, shifts in agro-ecological zones, relative to different climate change
scenarios.
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Key Input
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Gridded observed climate data, agro-climatic indices for different crop species and cultivars.
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Ease of Use
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For trained agronomists and agro-climatologists.
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Training Required
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Requires knowledge of agro-climatic indices, and methods for climatic data interpolation and
downscaling (e.g., ANUSPLIN, PRISM).
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Training Available
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See contacts below
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Computer Requirements
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Windows-based PC
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Documentation
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PRISM: Daly, C., R.P. Neilson, and D.L. Phillips. 1994. A statistical-topographic model for mapping
climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain. Journal of Applied Meteorology 33:140-158.
ANUSPLIN: Information on ANUSPLIN Version 4.3 available at http://cres.anu.edu.au/outputs/anusplin.php#1.
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Applications
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Used by Canadian Climate Change Action Projects.
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Contacts for Framework, Documentation, Technical Assistance
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Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation Directorate, Natural Resources Canada; e-mail: adaptation@nrcan.gc.ca.
Dr. A. Bootsma, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada; Tel: 613.759.1526; e-mail: bootsmaa@em.agr.ca.
Dr. D. Neilsen, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada; Tel: 250.494.6417; e-mail: neilsend@em.agr.ca.
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Cost
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Not identified
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References
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Bootsma1, S.G. and D.W. McKenney. 2001. Adaptation of Agricultural Production to Climate Change in
Atlantic Canada. Report for Climate Change Action Fund Project A214.
Neilsen, D., S. Smith, W. Koch, G. Frank, J. Hall, and P. Parchomchuk. 2001. Impact of Climate
Change on Crop Water Demand and Crop Suitability in the Okanagan Valley, BC. Technical Bulletin
01-15. Pacific Agri-Food Research Centre, Summerland, British Columbia, Canada. 
http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/pdf/4_e.pdf.
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