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Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change


Climate Related Risks Estimate as Indicators of Necessity for Adaptation Responses
Description Adaptation measures could be taken when climate-related risks to economic objects, environment or people’s lives arise. The methodology of climate risk assessment outlines a three step process: (1) to estimate probability of dangerous weather event or climate anomaly on the given territory; (2) to evaluate social damage as correlation between people’s number in the endangered region and damage probability; “fuzzy set” method could be used for complex risk estimation; (3) to calculate damage expressed in relative or monetary units taking into account GDP.
Appropriate Use This tool is useful when it is necessary to make decision about adaptation measures.
Scope All regions and sectors.
Key Output A quantitative estimate of climate-related risks for specific objects and processes in various economic and social spheres.
Key Input Meteorological data about recurrence and intensity of the dangerous weather events and climate anomalies, cost data including GDP, population in the specific region.
Ease of Use Depends on specific application.
Training Required “Fuzzy set” method requires training in use of statistical software. Knowledge of economics and estimating the monetary values of costs and benefits is needed.
Training Available No formal training currently offered. Sources of assistance / consulting can be obtained from contact listed below.
Computer Requirements Computer access
Documentation Numerous publications in the scientific literature.
Applications Whirlwind probability assessment for the third power-generating unit of Leningrad nuclear power station.
Contacts for Framework, Documentation, Technical Assistance

Nina Kobysheva

Voejkov Main Geophysical Observatory, 194021 Karbyshev Str. 7, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation; Tel: +7.812.297.4390; Fax: +7.812.297.8661; e-mail: director@main.mgo.rssi.ru or kobyshnv@main.mgo.rssi.ru.

Cost Depends on particular application.
References

Akentyeva, E.M. 2006. Climate-related risks for power generation, transportation and consumption in Russian Federation. In Proceedings - Living with Climate Variability and Change: Understanding the Uncertainties and Managing the Risks, Espoo, Finland.

Kobysheva, N.V. and M. V. Klueva. 2000. Estimation of risk of forest fires. Risk Excellence Notes 2(6).

Kobysheva, N.V. 2007. Adaptation measures in oil and gas industry. International Conference “Adaptation strategies in fuel – energy sector” Nignij Novgorod, Russian Federation.

Kobysheva, N.V. 2007. The problems of weather and climate related safety and sustainable development in technical sphere. Fifth International Conference “Actual Problems of Industrial Safety: from Projecting to Insurance, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation.