To draft and submit a guidance paper with the title “Using climate data, observations, and
forecasts to improve adaptive decision-making in multiple sectors in Africa.” This paper will
draw on work conducted over the last year, but will include a new set of analyses specific to
the objectives of the Nairobi Work Programme.
This action will relate to the use of data and observations, with the objective of assisting Parties
to make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures to climate change on a sound
scientific, technical and socio-economic basis, taking into account current and future climate change
The specific objectives of this project are to inform the
Parties, and other participants in the Nairobi Work Programme, about the demonstrated benefits of
applying climate data, observations, and forecasts across multiple sectors in Africa, the reasons why
those benefits are not greater, and the immediate steps that could be taken to improve adaptive
decision-making through the use of data, observations, and forecasts.
The team of researchers has already organized stakeholder meetings,
conducted a review of published and unpublished literature, attended numerous workshops, and written
a draft report, in cooperation with WMO affiliated organizations in Africa (DMC, ICPAC, ACMAD). The
team will synthesize these findings in order to be of use within the Nairobi Work Programme, most
importantly formulating policy-relevant conclusions relevant to the UNFCCC institutional setting.
We expect to submit a salient and independent guidance paper on or before 21 September 2007, which
will make clear policy recommendations about the immediate steps required to improve the use of data,
observations, and forecasts.
Indicators of achievement
This action will have been successful if it leads to
concrete actions not already proposed by Parties or the WMO to improve the use of climate data,
observations, and forecasts to assist adaptation to climate change and climate variaibility.
pledge (218 kB)
Extensive analysis of the uses of seasonal and shorter term climate forecasts for sustainable
development and climate adaptation, focused mostly on Africa, are available including:
- An assessment, commissioned by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), on the existing uses and benefits of seasonal climate forecasts across multiple sectors in
Africa. The assessment draws from an analysis of over 50 papers, studies, and pilot projects that
have been conducted in Africa, and reaches conclusions about where climate forecasts have been useful
so far, where they potentially could be in the future, and what the immediate challenges for policy
makers are in the coming years.
- A set of lessons learned from 10 years of experience in Africa applying seasonal forecast to
sustainable development efforts. The lessons are particularly important for considering the use of
climate forecasts for climate adaptation.
- An analysis of when and in what ways the application of seasonal climate forecasts improves the
capacity of individuals and organizations to adapt to climate change, as part of a conference on
climate adaptation held at the Royal Geographical Society in London.
As the analysis is still under revision, please contact Dr. Patt for details: email@example.com