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Progress in the implementation of decision 1/CP.10 - Modelling tools to assess the impact of the implementation of response measures
 

The following database contains modelling tools that have been, or could be, useful in assessing the impact of the implementation of response measures. 


IAM & E3
Name of the Model
Name of the Organization
Description of the Model
Particular Relevance
Coverage
AIM

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National Institute of Environmental Studies, Japan

The AIM (Asia Pacific Integrated Model) is an integrated assessment model made up of three modules:

  1. the greenhouse gas emission model (AIM/emission);
  2. the global climate change model (AIM/climate);
  3. the climate change impact model (AIM/impact).

The third of these makes the model relevant to assessing the response measures. However, the model also contains a very detailed technology selection module to evaluate the effect of introducing advanced technologies in the Asia-Pacific region.

The AIM model is particularly useful when analysing the development and diffusion of new 'greener' technologies in the Asia-Pacific region.
Asia-Pacific
ASF

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US Environmental Protection Agency
ASF is an integrated assessment model, which provides a framework for developing scenarios of future emissions based on consistent demographic, economic, and technological assumptions. Its strength is in its links between the use of biofuels, land use, technological development and GHG policy. It is therefore an appropriate tool for evaluating the land-use impacts of response measures.
The ASF model is used for analysing the development of clean technology in areas that are not related to energy generation, such as land use. These areas are often less well covered by other models, making it an important tool.
World, split into nine regions

E3ME

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Cambridge Econometrics

The econometric E3ME model has been built as a framework for assessing energy-environment-economy issues and policies. Its close links between energy demand and economic indicators make it well-suited to assessing the social and economic impacts of response measures. In particular, additional taxes or the removal of subsidies can be assessed with the model. E3ME can also be used to examine the impacts of efficiency measures, including rebound effects.

  1. In the past the model has mainly been used for:
  2. general macro and sectoral economic analysis;
  3. more focused analysis of policies relating to greenhouse gas mitigation;
  4. assessing incentives for industrial energy efficiency; analysing sustainable household consumption – for example to assess impacts of raw material taxation on household consumption patterns and other economic variables.
E3ME is relevant in assessing the socio-economic impacts of the climate change mitigation policies, for example the effect these policies have on specific industries or on income distribution. E3ME can be particularly useful in analysing changes to policies regarding taxation, subsidies and efficiency improvements of activities relating to fossil fuels.
EU27, Norway and Switzerland

E3MG

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Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR)

E3MG is a sectoral econometric model that has been developed with the intention of analysing long-term energy and environment interactions within the global economy and assessing short and long-term impacts of climate-change policy.

It is very similar to E3ME in structure and closely links economic outcomes with energy policy. It has a particular focus on taxes and subsidies, making it highly relevant to analysis of these response measures. Its global nature also makes it a useful tool for assessing the deployment of new technologies in developing countries.

E3MG is relevant in assessing the socio-economic impact of climate change mitigation policies on a global level. It is particularly useful in analysing the effects of changes in tax and subsidy policies, as well as analysing technological diffusion in developing countries.
World divided in 20 regions

ENTICE-BR

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Department of Public Administration, Center for Environmental Policy Administration, The Maxwell School, Syracuse University

ENTICE-BR is a dynamic growth model of the global economy that includes links between economic activity, carbon emissions, and the climate. The model includes endogenous links between climate policy and energy innovation, making it an appropriate tool for modelling both technological options and economic impacts.

ENTICE-BR is mainly used for: 1) analysing the impacts of R&D spending in the energy sector (in particular climate-friendly); and 2) studying the effects of various climate stabilization policies.

ENTICE-BR is highly relevant to assessing methods for improving energy efficiency and the development and diffusion of new technologies. The model can also be used for assessing the economic effects of such policy.
World

FAIR

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Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

The FAIR model is an interactive, decision-support tool to analyse the environmental implications and economic costs of climate mitigation regimes.

The model links long-term climate targets and global reduction objectives with regional emissions allowances and abatement costs, so is particularly useful for looking at some of the more detailed Kyoto mechanisms.

FAIR is relevant in assessing the socio-economic impact of climate change mitigation policies. In particular, the model is useful in assessing the costs of such policies.
26 world regions (FAIR region model), 27 EU Member States (FAIR EU model) and 224 UN countries (FAIR world model)

FUND

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Sustainability and Global Change, University of Hamburg

FUND is an integrated assessment model originally set-up to study the role of international capital transfers in climate policy. The model is now often used to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies.

It is therefore most suitable for analysing the social and economic impacts of the various response measures, with a particular focus on equity, both between countries and between socio-economic groups.

FUND is relevant in analysing  the socio-economic impacts of climate change mitigation policies, with particular focus on estimating the 'costs' of these policies. This makes the model particularly useful when looking at international equity issues.
World
G-CUBED

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The Maxwell School, Syracuse University

Peter J Wilcoxen

The G-Cubed is a multi-country, multi-sector, general equilibrium model that can be used to study a variety of policies in the areas of environmental regulation, tax reform, monetary and fiscal policy and international trade. It is different from most other models in discriminating between financial and physical capital.

The model is therefore a suitable tool for looking at the economic impacts of a range of response measures, including tax systems, technological development and economic diversification. It has also been applied to financial risk management in the UK.


The G-Cubed model is relevant in analysing the socio-economic impacts of climate change mitigation policies, as it has a wide range of both fiscal and monetary polices that can be studied. These make it a suitable tool for carrying out financial risk management analysis and the model can also be used to analyse trade flows, sectoral (diversification) impacts and the effects of technological progress
World, split into 8 regions

GEM-CCGT

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ZEW GmbH
GEM-CCGT is a general equilibrium model designed for analysing the effects of multilateral agreements on climate change and trade. It is similar in structure to the PACE model and can be used in the same way to assess the impacts of response measures. Its main outputs in such analysis would be changes in economic activity and example policies are changes in rates of taxation or energy-efficiency measures.
GEM-CCGT is relevant in analysing the trade impacts of climate change mitigation policies, in particular technology-related policies and the effects of environmental taxation.
World, split into 45 regions
GEM-E3

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Centre for Economic Studies, KULeuven

Institute of Communication and Computer Systems of National Technical University of Athens

The GEM-E3 model was designed to provide details on the macro-economy and its interactions with the environment and the energy system. It is a general equilibrium model, meaning it computes the equilibrium prices of goods, services, labour, and capital that simultaneously clear all markets.

The model is mainly used for:

  1. simulating the effects of market-based instruments (such as taxes) for energy-related environmental policy on key economic and environmental indicators;
  2. evaluating European Commission programmes aimed at promoting sustainable economic growth; and
  3. public finance, stabilisation policies and their implications on trade, growth and the behaviour of economic agents.
GEM-E3 is particularly relevant in analysing the socio-economic and environmental impacts of changes in energy-related tax and subsidy policies. 24 European countries in GEM-E3 Europe, 20 World regions in GEM-E3 World

GEMINI-E3

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REME

GEMINI-E3 has been specifically designed to assess world climate change policies, in particular the effects of the Kyoto Protocol, both at the microeconomic and the macroeconomic levels. It is a multi-country, multi-sector, dynamic model incorporating a highly detailed representation of indirect taxation.

The current version of the model is capable of assessing intra-European and domestic policies such as the directive on quotas, project of directive "energy-climate" and the determination of carbon value. A new version, GEMINI-EMU, has been developed specifically aimed at assessing intra-European macroeconomic policies but also relevant for climate change scenarios appraisal.

GEMINI-E3 is relevant in analysing the socio-economic impacts of climate change mitigation policies (focusing on the Kyoto Protocol), including taxation and emissions trading. All Annex B countries and 11 non-Annex B countries

GINFORS

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GWS The Global INterindustry FORecasting System (GINFORS) is an economy-energy-environment model with global coverage and a detailed sectoral disaggregation. Through its integrated treatment of the environment, energy demand and the economy it is well-suited to assessing the impacts of environmental policy. In particular, it has been used to look at the impacts of changes in taxation policy and changes in sectoral efficiencies. The GINFORS model is relevant in analysing the trade and long-term energy demand and supply impacts of climate change mitigation policies. The model has specifically been used to assess the impacts of environmental taxation. all EU27 countries, all OECD countries and their major trade partners

GTEM

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ABARE

GTEM is a dynamic multi-region, multi-sector general equilibrium model of the world economy. The model can be used to analyse all key aspects of the Kyoto Protocol, including carbon sinks, the clean development mechanism, and international emissions trading, including the banking of emissions quota and market power. It can therefore be used for assessing the economic impacts of tax and emission trading schemes and diversification among economic sectors.

The GTEM model is relevant in analysing the international socio-economic impacts of climate change mitigation policies (focusing on the Kyoto Protocol), including taxes and emission trading. World, split into 66 regions

ICLIPS

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Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research

ICLIPS seeks to provide Integrated Assessment of Climate Protection Strategies to support the decision-making community. The model assesses the social and economic consequences of climate-change policies. It consists of three modules looking at climate effects, the impacts of these effects and the socio-economic outcomes.

The basis for the model is the two-way linkages between society and the climate, making it an appropriate tool for assessing the economic, social and environmental impacts of response measures.

ICLIPS is particularly useful in investigating methods of economic diversification in various world regions, as well as the assessment of the socio-economic impacts of climate change mitigation policies. World

 

IGSM

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MIT The IGSM model is relevant in analysing the socio-economic impacts of climate change mitigation policies, in particular taxation policy and policies related to technology development. The model can also be particularly useful for analysing international trade flows. The IGSM model is relevant in analysing the socio-economic impacts of climate change mitigation policies, in particular taxation policy and policies related to technology development. The model can also be particularly useful for analysing international trade flows. World

IMACLIM

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CIRED

IMACLIM-S is a static general equilibrium model designed to assess the macroeconomic impacts of a price- or quantity-based carbon policy. It is therefore particularly suitable for modelling the economic impacts of changes to tax regimes and emissions trading. However, using abatement costs the model can also be used for assessing the impacts of regulatory changes or emission standards.

IMACLIM-R is a dynamic version of the model that is more focused on technological change. It is therefore also appropriate for looking at long-term technological solutions to climate change.

The IMACLIM model has been used for analysing the socio-economic impacts of climate change mitigation policies, for example changes to taxes and subsidies. The model can also be useful in analysing international trade flows. World, 14 region split for the static version and 12 region split for the dynamic one.

IMAGE

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Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

IMAGE is a multi-disciplinary, integrated system of models designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-atmosphere system. Its particular strength is that it can assess the social and economic impacts of policies aimed at reducing emissions from land-use change.

The model can forecast up to 2100 and has a spatial scale grid of 0.5 x 0.5 degrees latitude-longitude for climate, land-use and land-cover processes, and region-level split for socio-economic indicators.

The model is mainly used to:

  1. investigate linkages and feedbacks in the global society-biosphere-atmosphere system;
  2. assess consequences of global policies;
  3. analyse relative effectiveness of various policy options addressing global change.
The IMAGE model is relevant in assessing the socio-economic impacts of the climate change mitigation policies, in particular the impacts on the agricultural economy, land use and trade, as well as energy demand and supply. World, divided into 26 regions

MDM-E3

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Cambridge Econometrics

MDM-E3 is the UK's most detailed econometric energy-environment-economy (E3) model, designed to analyse and forecast changes in economic structure, energy demand and resulting environmental emissions. It is very similar to E3ME in structure, and its close links between energy demand and economic indicators make it well-suited to assessing the economic impacts of response measures.

In particular, additional taxes or the removal of subsidies can be assessed with the model in the UK. MDM-E3 can also be used to examine the impacts of efficiency measures, including rebound effects.

MDM-E3 is relevant in assessing the socio-economic impacts of the climate change mitigation policies in the UK. MDM-E3 can be particularly useful in analysing changes to policies regarding taxation, subsidies and efficiency improvements of activities relating to fossil fuels World, divided into 26 regions

MERGE

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EPRI

MERGE was designed to estimate the regional and global economic impacts of greenhouse gas reductions. The model is sufficiently to flexible to explore alternative views on a wide range of issues, such as: costs of abatement, damages from climate change, valuation and discounting. MERGE is made up of four submodels:

  1. domestic and international economy;
  2. energy-related emissions of greenhouse gases;
  3. non-energy emissions of GHG's;
  4. global climate change – market and non-market damages.
The MERGE model is relevant to analysing the socio-economic impacts of climate change mitigation policies, for example through taxation measures. World, split into 9 regions

MERLIN

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Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (IER)

MERLIN is a cost-benefit-analysis computer-based model system that can be used to determine the bundle of air pollution control measures that is capable of achieving compliance with air quality limit and target values (for emission, concentrations and deposition) for specific pollutants at least-costs.

Furthermore, the model can be used to calculate benefits, i.e. avoided damage costs by implementing air pollution control measures, first in a physical way, and in a second step - as far as possible - in monetary terms. In addition, macroeconomic effects and distributional impacts of pollution control strategies can be determined.

The model is relevant in assessing the socio-economic impacts of the climate change mitigation policies. In particular, this model can be used to estimate the economic cost and benefits of such policies.

Europe

GCAM

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Joint Global Change Research Institute (PNNL)

GCAM is an integrated assessment model that focuses on the world's energy and agriculture systems and includes numerous energy supply technologies.

The model is mainly used for:

  1. estimating the impacts of technologies and policies related to GHG emissions in a national and global context;
  2. evaluating different technologies, including carbon sequestration;
  3. land-use/ agriculture modelling;
  4. basic climate change modelling.
GCAM is relevant to analysing the development of new environmentally-friendly technologies, as well as evaluating the performance of existing conventional ones. The model can also be useful when looking at the diffusion of technology across global regions. World, split in 14 regions

MS-MRT

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CRA International The Multi-Sector Multi-Region Trade (MS-MRT) model is a computable general equilibrium model designed to address questions about the economic and trade impacts of climate change policies. It's sectoral disaggregation makes it a suitable tool for considering diversification away from fuel-consuming and producing sectors. The MS-MRT model is relevant in analysing the socio-economic impacts of climate change mitigation policies, with a focus on sectoral and trade-related impacts. MS-MRT could also be useful for analysing economic diversification. World, split into 7 regions

NEMESIS

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ERASME

NEMESIS is a multi-country macro-sectoral econometric model which can be used for assessment of structural policies, mainly environmental and R&D policies. It closely links energy and environmental policy to economic outcomes, making it a suitable tool for analysis of the response measures. In particular it can be used to model the impacts of additional taxes on emissions or energy use.

The model has mainly been used for:

  1. assessment of short and medium term consequences of energy and environmental (air pollution) policies, R&D, technology-related and economic policies on EU economies and on the state of the environment;
  2. forecasting baseline scenarios for 30 years' time, including sustainable development scenarios.
NEMESIS is relevant in analysing the socio-economic impacts of climate change mitigation policies, and in particular technology related policies and taxation schemes. EU27, USA, Japan

OECD-GREEN

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OECD

GREEN was developed in order to assess the economic impacts of imposing limits on carbon emissions. GREEN is a global computable general equilibrium model with a special focus on energy production and consumption. The GREEN model has a wide range of policy instruments, as well as many other exogenous factors. These include energy-efficiency improvements and the price of new forms of renewable energy.

The model is relevant in analysing the impacts of climate change mitigation policies (especially through trading schemes) on energy production and consumption and on energy efficiency and new technologies. World, divided into 12 regions

PACE

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ZEW GmbH

PACE is a flexible system of general equilibrium models, integrating the economy, energy, and environment dimensions. The model has a standard multi-sector, multi-region core made up of global trade and energy use, which was designated to assess major policy initiatives in a world that is increasingly integrated through trade. Its main strength is its ability to assess the long-term economic and social impacts of environmental policy, particularly policy relating to shifts in taxation or subsidies and energy efficiency.

The model is mainly used for:

  1. economic analysis of energy and environmental policy initiatives;
  2. problem-specific investigation of trade, tax, and labour market policies without a focus on energy or environmental markets.
The PACE model is used for analysing the socio-economic impacts of climate change mitigation policies, especially those that focus on technology. The model can also be used for analysis of energy taxes and subsidies. 12 World regions

PANTA-RHEI

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GWS

PANTA RHEI provides a detailed treatment of Germany's economy, linked to energy use and atmospheric emissions. The model is suitable for assessing changes in taxation policy and sectoral efficiency and has a detailed sectoral disaggregation.

The model is mainly used for:

  1. analysis of long-term changes in energy demand and supply and in an economy;
  2. estimating the impact of different climate policy instruments
  3. forecast of energy emissions .
PANTA-RHEI is relevant in analysing the economic and trade impacts of mitigation policy in Germany. The model's detail makes it suitable for looking at energy-efficiency policy and tax/subsidy schemes. Germany

Second Generation Model

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Joint Global Change Research Institute (PNNL) SGM is a computable general equilibrium model with emphasis on demographics, resources, agriculture, energy supply and transformation, energy intense industries, household consumption, and government expenditure. The model is used to project energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions but its main relevance is its use in evaluating the economic impacts of climate change policies and the use of technologies for emissions mitigation. The SGM model is relevant in assessing the socio-economic impacts of climate change mitigation policies, with a specific focus on resources, agriculture and energy-intensive industries. World, split in 13 regions

TIAM

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Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (IER)

TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) comprises several thousand technologies in all sectors of the energy system. It is therefore most relevant to assessing the possibilities for technological solutions to reducing emissions of greenhouse gas emissions. This includes policy aimed at stimulating the development of new technologies and creating the conditions for the adoption of these technologies.

The model is characterized by several technical and economic parameters and by emission coefficients for the three main GHG’s: CO2, CH4, and N2O.

The following mitigation options are available in the model:

  1. energy and technology substitution;
  2. demand reduction;
  3. specific CH4 and N2O options;
  4. biological absorption of CO2;
  5. capture (electricity and hydrogen) and sequestration of CO2 (CCS).

Outputs from the model include the rate of adoption of new technologies and subsequent emission levels.

The model is relevant to investigating the development of new 'greener' energy technologies and looking at the conditions for the adoption of these technologies. World, split into 15 regions

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